The Sustainability Dynamics Framework – A holistic approach to define and evaluate sustainability and unsustainability in the Anthropocene

The significant role and impact of humans in fostering environmental change, at all spatial-temporal scales, has been formally recognised by the development and inclusion of the Anthropocene epoch into the standardised geological time scale. Due to the role and impacts that humans are having, it is necessary to develop an understanding of the co-evolutionary relationship between humans and the environment in the Anthropocene – Specifically, in relation to the fundamental dynamics of sustainability and unsustainability. This requires the development of approaches which are capable of developing new holistic knowledge concerning the fundamental dynamics of sustainability/unsustainability operating at any specified spatial-temporal scale(s) in the Anthropocene. Henceforth, this paper proposes a holistic quantitative framework - the Sustainability Dynamics Framework. The framework integrates and extends four fundamental theories concerning the environment-human relationship into a single framework. The framework is then demonstratively applied for the first time to determine and analyse the fundamental dynamic relationships between indicated levels of sustainability (S-values) and various influencing factors, significantly expanding upon previously obtained results and analysis in Phillips (2015). The demonstrative application indicates that the SDF has a potential contribution towards advancing knowledge concerning the dynamics of sustainability/unsustainability in the Anthropocene. This will be demonstrated through the future applications of the SDF to newly developed case studies of a multi spatial-temporal nature.     

Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioeconomic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyrelevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalchange issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationgaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overconfident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policymakers generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policymaking that are not available through other means.     

A methodology for rapid assessment of the environmental status of the shallow aquifer of ��Tavoliere di Puglia�� (Southern Italy)

Anticipating the European Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), the Italian Government issued Legislative Decree n.152/99 which sets out rules for classifying the environmental status of national water bodies in order to achieve specific qualitative objectives by 2016. The most recent European Groundwater Directive (2006/118/EC), which was only recognized by Italy in early 2009 (Legislative Decree 30/09), requires such resources to be characterized from a qualitative standpoint and the risk of their being polluted by individual pollutants or groups of pollutants to be evaluated. This paper reports a simple methodology, based on easy-to-apply rules, for the rapid classification of groundwater, and the results of its application to the shallow aquifer of the plain of Tavoliere delle Puglie located in south Italy. Data collected during well-water monitoring campaigns carried out from 2002 to 2003 made it possible to assess the environmental status of the Tavoliere which, unfortunately, was found to be characterized by ??significant anthropic pressures on quality and/or quantity of groundwater and necessitating specific improvement actions??.     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.     

Modelling the Transport of Oil–Mineral-Aggregates (OMAs) in the Marine Environment and Assessment of Their Potential Risks

Spilled oil can interact with suspended particles in marine environments and form oil–mineral aggregates (OMAs). Some OMAs with densities higher than seawater density can settle to the seedbed to pose potential risks to benthic organisms. To understand the transport and fate of oil associated with OMAs and evaluate their potential risks, an integrated hydrodynamic and fate/transport model has been used in a hypothetical case study of 1,000 tonnes of South Louisiana oil spilled in the Bristol Channel. Several scenarios have been simulated under different wave and current conditions. By using OMA properties derived from laboratory measurements reported in literature, it has been found that the risk to the benthos is unlikely for the two hypothetical cases with strong currents, but it is likely for the wave only (weak current) case. The effects of other factors such as OMA properties and sediment concentration were also examined in terms of their effects on the transport process and risks.     

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea—a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world’s fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000–2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4–8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.     

Use of metallothioneins as biomarkers for environmental quality assessment in the Gulf of Gabès (Tunisia)

Detection and assessment of the impact of pollution on biological resources imply increasing research on early-warning markers such as metallothioneins (MTs) in metal exposure. In this paper, we have collated published information on the use of metallothioneins and metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs) as biomarkers for environmental quality assessment in the Gulf of Gabès. In this area, some species of fish and bivalve were used as bioindicators of pollution. In these species, an induction of MTs/MTLPs by the essential metals such as Cu and Zn and the non-essential metals such as Cd was observed by different authors who suggest the potential use of these proteins as biomarkers. However, MT concentrations can be influenced by many biotic (sex, maturity stages, and tissues) and abiotic factors (temperature, salinity, and pH). This is essentially the case in field studies where many parameters can randomly affect MT levels, so the endogeneous regulation of MTs must be considered before using MTs as an indicator of heavy metal exposure. Moreover, the use of biomarker cannot be examined independently of the evaluation of techniques that enable its quantification. Therefore, the approach to the use of MTs/MTLP as biomarkers of exposure for an assessment of the physiological status of aquatic organisms is discussed in this paper.     

Integrating sentinel watershed-systems into the monitoring and assessment of Minnesota’s (USA) waters quality

Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires States and Tribes to list waters not meeting water quality standards. A total maximum daily load must be prepared for waters identified as impaired with respect to water quality standards. Historically, the management of pollution in Minnesota has been focused on point-source regulation. Regulatory effort in Minnesota has improved water quality over the last three decades. Non-point source pollution has become the largest driver of conventional 303(d) listings in the 21st century. Conventional pollutants, i.e., organic, sediment and nutrient imbalances can be identified with poor land use management practices. However, the cause and effect relationship can be elusive because of natural watershed-system influences that vary with scale. Elucidation is complex because the current water quality standards in Minnesota were designed to work best with water quality permits to control point sources of pollution. This paper presents a sentinel watershed-systems approach (SWSA) to the monitoring and assessment of Minnesota waterbodies. SWSA integrates physical, chemical, and biological data over space and time using advanced technologies at selected small watersheds across Minnesota to potentially improve understanding of natural and anthropogenic watershed processes and the management of point and non-point sources of pollution. Long-term, state-of-the-art monitoring and assessment is needed to advance and improve water quality standards. Advanced water quality or ecologically-based standards that integrate physical, chemical, and biological numeric criteria offer the potential to better understand, manage, protect, and restore Minnesota’s waterbodies.     

Determining the ‘optimal’ level of pollution (PM2.5) generated by industrial and residential sources

This study provides an optimization model that explicitly determines the ‘optimal’ level of pollution of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) by analyzing various options for reducing emissions from industrial and residential sources in the second largest urban area in Chile. Several conclusions that had not been previously addressed or sufficiently highlighted in the literature were discerned. The most notable conclusions included the importance of regulating all emission sources and not just industrial sources (which are typically fewer in number and easier to monitor), the homogeneity in ‘optimal’ levels of pollution from urban districts when considering the long-term effects on human health (which would support the adoption of uniform regulations), and the asymmetry in confidence intervals associated to the ‘optimal’ level of pollution.     

Trace metal (Cd,Cu, Pb,Zn) fractionation in urban-industrial soils of Ust-Kamenogorsk (Oskemen), Kazakhstan—implications for the assessment of environmental quality

Ust-Kamenogorsk is one of the largest cities and industrial centers in Kazakhstan. Non-ferrous metallurgy (Zn–Pb smelter) has acted as a predominating industrial branch in the city since late 1940s. The industrial plants are situated directly adjacent to the residential area of the city which creates grievous ecotoxicological hazard. In the present paper, we aimed at assessing the trace metal pollution of top soils in Ust-Kamenogorsk and its potential threats to the local population. The top soils were sampled at 10 sites throughout the city center. We determined the physical and chemical properties of soils as well as the contents of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. In addition, the soil samples were subjected to a five-step sequential extraction to ascertain the fractionation of trace metals. On this basis, we calculated the geoaccumulation index (I_geo) and pollution load index (PLI) and assessed bioavailability of the elements. From our data, it emerged that the soils displayed a strong polymetallic pollution. PLI was as high as 33.4. Throughout the city, the trace metal contents exceeded the geochemical background and allowable values for residential, recreational, and institutional areas. The I_geo obtained were 3.7–6.5 for Cd, 1.5–4.7 for Cu, 2.8–5.7 for Pb, and 2.6–4.6 for Zn. The soils in Ust-Kamenogorsk displayed extremely high contamination with Cd, moderate to strong contamination with Pb and Zn, and low to moderate contamination with Cu. Cd and Pb were found to be the most bioavailable elements. The mobility of trace metals in the soils changed in the order Cd > Pb > Zn > Cu.     

Assessment of water quality in the Messolonghi�CEtoliko and Neochorio region (West Greece) using hydrochemical and statistical analysis methods

Assessment of the water quality can enhance understanding of the hydrochemical system and effective management of water resources. To this end, an assessment of water quality was conducted in the Messolonghi-Etoliko and Neochorio region. Surface water and groundwater samples have been collected, treated, and subjected to chemical analysis for the following parameters: Br?, Cl?, F?, NO??, NO??, PO?3?, SO?2?, Li?, Na?, NH??, K?, Mg2?, Ca2?, HCO??, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn. A characterization has been carried out using the Piper trilinear diagram, the United States Salinity Laboratory diagram, and the Wilcox diagram. Assessment of water samples by comparing the recorded values of the water quality parameters with the parametric values established by European Community indicated that the 50% of the surface water samples and 67% of the groundwater samples in the study area are chemically suitable for drinking use. Assessment of water samples from calculation of chemical indexes like sodium adsorption ratio, sodium percentage, residual sodium carbonate, and by comparing the values of the water quality parameters with the water quality limits established by Canadian Council of Minister of the Environment indicated that 75% of the surface water and that all the groundwater samples are chemically suitable for irrigation use.     

A comparison of sampling techniques and summary indices for assessment of water quality in the Yamaska River,Québec,based on benthic macroinvertebrates

The Yamaska River drainage basin in Quebec, Canada, is intensively farmed and heavily polluted with poorly treated domestic and industrial wastes. We investigated the responses of the resident and colonizing components of the benthic macroinvertebrate community to municipal/industrial versus agricultural pollution in the basin, and evaluated the performances of seven diversity and biotic indices for assessing water quality. Samples of riffle-dwelling, infaunal and colonizing invertebrates were collected from 13 stations representing a wide range of types and degrees of pollution using Surber, scoop and artificial substrate samplers. The data were summarized using the indices S (number of taxa), N (number of individuals), H (Shannon-Wiener's diversity index), D (Simpson's diversity index), BBI (Belgian Biotic Index), TBI (a modification of Hilsenhoff's Biotic Index), % CHIR (percentage of arthropods consisting of Chironomidae) and %OLIGO (percentage of total organisms consisting of Oligochaeta). Different components of the community generated somewhat different assessments and were, therefore, complementary. Community composition, expressed as the percentage of individuals contributed by major taxonomic groups, reflected the kinds of stresses at a station more consistently than did any of the indices. S and TBI came closest to ranking control, agricultural and municipal/industrial sites in accordance with our a priori classification, both between months and among sampling methods. %OLIGO usually separated municipal/industrial sites from control sites. Other indices were found to be less sensitive, accurate or temporally stable, or were otherwise inappropriate for use with certain sampling methods or for certain types of pollution. With most of our samples, all of the summary indices suggested that the impact of agricultural practices on stream ecosystems may be as severe as the impacts of municipal and industrial wastes.     

Spatial–temporal variation and comparative assessment of water qualities of urban river system: a case study of the river Bagmati (Nepal)

The study presents the assessment of variation of water qualities, classification of monitoring networks and detection of pollution sources along the Bagmati River and its tributaries in the Kathmandu valley of Nepal. Seventeen stations, monitored for 23 physical and chemical parameters in pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons, during the period 1999-2003, were selected for the purpose of this study. The study revealed that the upstream river water qualities in the rural areas were increasingly affected from human sewage and chemical fertilizers. In downstream urban areas, the river was heavily polluted with untreated municipal sewage. The contribution of industries to pollute the river was minimal. The higher ratio of COD to BOD (3.74 in the rural and 2.06 in the urban) confirmed the increased industrial activities in the rural areas. An increasing trend of nitrate was found in the rural areas. In the urban areas, increasing trend of phosphorus was detected. The water quality measurement in the study period showed that DO was below 4 mg/l and BOD, COD, TIN, TP and TSS above 39.1, 59.2, 10.1, 0.84 and 199 mg/l, respectively, in the urban areas. In the rural areas, DO was above 6.2 mg/l and BOD, COD, TIN, TP and TSS below 15.9, 31, 5.24, 0.41 and 134.5 mg/l, respectively. The analysis for data from 1988 to 2003 at a key station in the river revealed that BOD was increasing at a rate of 1.8 mg/l in the Bagmati River. A comparative study for the water quality variables in the urban areas showed that the main river and its tributaries were equally polluted. The other comparison showed the urban water qualities were significantly poor as compared with rural. The cluster analysis detected three distinct monitoring groups: (1) low water pollution region, (2) medium water pollution region, (3) heavy water pollution region. For rapid assessment of water qualities using the representative sites could serve to optimize cost and time without loosing any significance of the outcome. The factor analysis revealed distinct groups of sources and pollutions (organics, nutrients, solutes and physicochemical).     

Assessment of organic pollution of an industrial river by synchronous fluorescence and UV–vis spectroscopy: the Fensch River (NE France)

To rapidly monitor the surface water quality in terms of organic pollution of an industrial river undergoing restoration, optical methods (UV–visible spectrometry and fluorescence) were applied in parallel to classical physical–chemical analyses. UV–visible spectra were analyzed using the maximum of the second derivative at 225 nm (related to nitrates), specific absorbance at 254 nm (SUVA₂₅₄), and the spectral slope between 275 and 295 nm (S _275–295) (related to the aromaticity and molecular weight of dissolved organic carbon). The synchronous fluorescence spectra (wavelength difference = 50 nm) exhibited a high variability in the composition of dissolved organic material between the upstream and downstream sections and also versus time. The principal components analysis of the entire set of synchronous fluorescence spectra helped to define three river sections with different pollution characteristics. Spectral decomposition was applied to the two most upstream sections: five fluorophores, classical in rivers impacted by domestic sewage and related to protein-like (λ _ex = 280 nm) and humic-like fluorescence (M-type with λ _ex ≈ 305–310 nm and C-type with λ _ex ≥ 335 nm), were identified. The irregular shape of the synchronous fluorescence spectra in the most downstream section is likely due to organic pollutants of industrial origin; however, their variability and the complexity of the spectra did not allow the further elucidation of their nature.     

Levels and distribution of persistent organochlorine pesticide residues in water and sediments of Gomti River (India)—a tributary of the Ganges River

This study reports the concentration levels and distribution pattern of the persistent organochlorine pesticide (OCPs) residues in the water and bed-sediments of the Gomti River collected seasonally over a period of 2 years. The water and bed-sediment samples were collected from eight different sites and analyzed for aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, HCB, HCH isomers, DDT isomers/metabolites, endosulfan isomers (alpha and beta), endosulfan sulfate, heptachlor and its metabolites, alpha-chlordane, gamma-chlordane and methoxychlor. In the river water and sediments SigmaOCPs residues ranged between 2.16 and 567.49 ng l(-1) and 0.92 and 813.59 ng g(-1), respectively. The results, further, suggested that source of DDT contamination is from the aged and weathered agricultural soils with signature of recently used DDT in the river catchments. To assess any adverse effect of OCPs contamination on river's biological component, the threshold effect level (TEL) was used. The results revealed that bed-sediments of the Gomti River are contaminated with lindane, endrin, heptachlor epoxides and DDT, particularly at site-4 and may contribute to sediment toxicity in the freshwater ecosystem of the river.     

An Assessment of the Effects of Crude Oil Pollution on Soil Properties, Germination and Growth of Maize (Zea Mays) using Two Crude Types – Forcados Light and Escravos Light

The effect of crude oil pollution on soil properties, germination and height of maize (Zea mays) was investigated under natural environment in three separate pot experiments. Two crude oil types--Forcados light and Escravos light were used. In Experiment 1, the effect of crude oil application on germination using high pollution levels of 5, 15, 25 and 40 mL kg(-1) of soil was assessed. In Experiment 2, the effect of crude oil application on maize plant height using the same pollution levels was assessed. The last experiment (Experiment 3) was used to test for the effects of crude oil application on maize plant height using lower levels of pollution (1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 mL kg(-1) of soil). Soil samples were collected before, during and after the experiment and analyzed for some physical and chemical properties. Results obtained showed variation in chemical properties of soil. % organic matter increased from 1.34 to 2.62% in polluted soils. Available P decreased from 15.00 ppm in control to between 7.34 and 5.42 in soils polluted with 'high' levels of crude oil. Statistical analysis of height data showed that crude oil inhibited the growth of maize at high pollution levels. High levels of pollution also inhibited germination and for Escravos light there was no germination at 40 mL kg(-1) soil level of crude oil pollution.     

Assessment of enrichment factors and grain size influence on the metal distribution in riverbed sediments (Anll��ns River, NW Spain)

The metals distribution in the bed sediments of the Anllóns River was studied, with special emphasis on the evaluation of the metal distribution as a function of the granulometric fraction chosen for the analysis. Statistical significant differences between the distribution of K, Ca, Cr, Mn, As, Rb, Sr and Nb in the bulk (<2 mm) and fine fraction (<63 μm) were not found. Fe, Ni, Cu, Ga, Zr, Zn and Pb commonly appear in higher concentrations in the fine fraction, whereas Ti appears in higher concentrations in the bulk fraction. In general, it was observed that contamination phenomena tend to equalise the concentrations of both fractions, and this was mainly explained as the result of two processes. First, the formation of coatings over sands and, second, the formation of large aggregates (pseudo-sands) at sites located over basic rocks, whose chemical behaviour is closer to that of clays and could be responsible for significant adsorption processes. Normalisation techniques to evaluate contamination were applied by testing Nb, Sr, Rb or Ga as normaliser elements and by using crustal or shale average values for background concentrations. The most satisfactory result was obtained when using shale average values and Ga as the normaliser element. Arsenic was identified as the main contaminant of the basin, exceeding in all cases the low-effect reference values proposed by sediment quality guidelines and in two cases the medium-effect reference values. These sites were identified by multivariate techniques, which allow differentiating site 10 as affected by anthropogenic inputs related to past mining activities.     

Assessment of seasonal effects of municipal sewage pollution on the water quality of an urban canal—a case study of the Buckingham canal at Kalpakkam (India): NO3, PO4, SO4, BOD, COD and DO

The seasonal effects of untreated and treated municipal sewage on the nutrients-nitrate (NO(3)), phosphate (PO(4)), sulphate (SO(4)), and the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and dissolved oxygen (DO) of the receiving urban canal, the Buckingham canal at Kalpakkam (Tamil Nadu, India) was monitored monthly during pre- monsoon-2005 to post-monsoon-2006. The NO(3), PO(4) and SO(4) contents were higher in the downstream than that of the upstream of the outfall points of treated as well as untreated sewage, of the canal. The NO(3) and PO(4) contents were higher during summer than that of monsoon; however the SO(4) was higher during winter and lower during summer in the canal water. The BOD and COD were lower and DO was higher at the upstream than that of downstream of the canal. The concentrations of BOD and COD were higher during summer season, which decreased during monsoon season, while the DO decreased during the summer season and increased in monsoon season in the canal water. Cluster analysis applied to the six sampling points of the canal, has grouped them based on the water quality similarities.