Random denominators and the analysis of ratio data

Ratio data, observations in which one random value is divided by another random value, present unique analytical challenges. The best statistical technique varies depending on the unit on which the inference is based. We present three environmental case studies where ratios are used to compare two groups, and we provide three parametric models from which to simulate ratio data. The models describe situations in which (1) the numerator variance and mean are proportional to the denominator, (2) the numerator mean is proportional to the denominator but its variance is proportional to a quadratic function of the denominator and (3) the numerator and denominator are independent. We compared standard approaches for drawing inference about differences between two distributions of ratios: t-tests, t-tests with transformations, permutation tests, the Wilcoxon rank test, and ANCOVA-based tests. Comparisons between tests were based both on achieving the specified alpha-level and on statistical power. The tests performed comparably with a few notable exceptions. We developed simple guidelines for choosing a test based on the unit of inference and relationship between the numerator and denominator.     

吉林省农田景观动态与农业自然灾害相互关系研究

分别从作物生境、作物形态和作物种类角度分析吉林省近50a的农田景观动态变化情况,结合农业旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾害和作物病虫害成灾面积动态变化和各种农业自然灾害的成灾面积与受灾面积比的变化趋势,探讨农田景观动态与农业自然灾害的相互关系,指出农田景观生态多样性的降低是农业自然灾害频繁和灾损增加的一个主要原因。为了减轻自然灾害的损失,农业生产布局多样化是今后发展的方向。     

Crop substitution in the estimation of economic benefits due to ozone reduction

Prior estimates of economic loss from ozone damage to food crops have not allowed for farmer substitution in inputs—and particularly have not allowed for acreage shifts between crops—in response to yield changes. This is a potentially serious problem since benefits from air pollution control legislation may also be estimated without allowing for this direct substitution. This study explores how much acreage shifting might occur between corn, soybeans, and wheat if ozone were reduced to background levels, and how such substitution might affect the estimation of benefits from ozone reduction.     

广东省农业现代化科技示范区的能值分析与评价指标研究

为了从生态经济学角度揭示农业现代化示范区园区的生态经济运行质量,探索一条能更客观、更简单地评价农业科技园区的新途径,文章运用能值理论和方法,分析和评价了广东省农业现代化科技示范区的能值投资率、能值产出率、能值密度、人均能值用量、环境负载率、能值生产率、每万元产值消耗能值和基于能值分析的可持续发展指数等指标,并从中筛选出其能值评价的主要指标。主要结果如下,(1)从2000—2004年,广东省农业现代化科技示范区的总投入能值和总产出能值呈现快速增加的趋势,能值密度和环境负载率持续增加,人均能值使用量,能值投资率和能值生产率呈波动增加的趋势,而能值产出率,可持续发展指数和每万元产值消耗能值呈波动下降的趋势。这说明该示范区总体上呈现快速发展的趋势,经济实力和科技竞争力不断增加。(2)本研究运用主成分分析法、因子分析法和实证对比研究法提出评价农业现代化科技示范区的最佳指标是人均能值使用量和环境负载率。     

Net primary production of Chinese croplands from 1950 to 1999.

Considerable efforts have been made to assess the contribution of forest and grassland ecosystems to the global carbon budget, while less attention has been paid to agriculture. Net primary production (NPP) of Chinese croplands and driving factors are seldom taken into account in the regional carbon budget. We studied crop NPP by analyzing the documented crop yields from 1950 to 1999 on a provincial scale. Total NPP, including estimates of the aboveground and belowground components, was calculated from harvested yield data by (1) conversion from economic yield of the crop to aboveground mass using the ratio of aboveground residue production to the economic yield, (2) estimation of belowground mass as a function of aboveground mass, and (3) conversion from total dry mass to carbon mass. This approach was applied to 13 crops, representing 86.8% of the total harvested acreage of crops in China. Our results indicated that NPP in Chinese croplands increased markedly during this period. Averaging for each decade, the amount of NPP was 146 +/- 32, 159 +/- 34, 260 +/- 55, 394 +/- 85, and 513 +/- 111 Tg C/yr (mean +/- SD) in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, respectively. This increase may be attributed to synthetic fertilizer application. A further investigation indicated that the climate parameters of temperature and precipitation determined the spatial variability in NPP. Spatiotemporal variability in NPP can be well described by the consumption of synthetic fertilizer and by climate parameters. In addition, the total amount of residue C and root C retained by the soils was estimated to be 618 Tg, with a range from 300 to 1040 Tg over the 50 years.     

Measuring and decomposing changes in agricultural productivity, nitrogen use efficiency and cumulative exergy efficiency: Application to OECD agriculture

This paper uses an aggregate quantity space to decompose the temporal changes in nitrogen use efficiency and cumulative exergy use efficiency into changes of Moorsteen-Bjurek (MB) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) changes and changes in the aggregate nitrogen and cumulative exergy contents. Changes in productivity can be broken into technical change and changes in various efficiency measures such as technical efficiency, scale efficiency and residual mix efficiency. Changes in the aggregate nitrogen and cumulative exergy contents can be driven by changes in the quality of inputs and outputs and changes in the mixes of inputs and outputs. Also with cumulative exergy content analysis, changes in the efficiency in input production can increase or decrease the cumulative exergy transformity of agricultural production. The empirical study in 30 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development from 1990 to 2003 yielded some important findings. The production technology progressed but there were reductions in technical efficiency, scale efficiency and residual mix efficiency levels. This result suggests that the production frontier had shifted up but there existed lags in the responses of member countries to the technological change. Given TFP growth, improvements in nutrient use efficiency and cumulative exergy use efficiency were counteracted by reductions in the changes of the aggregate nitrogen contents ratio and aggregate cumulative exergy contents ratio. The empirical results also confirmed that different combinations of inputs and outputs as well as the quality of inputs and outputs could have more influence on the growth of nutrient and cumulative exergy use efficiency than factors that had driven productivity change.     

Harvest in a fluctuating environment and conservative harvest for the Fox surplus production model

Relations between optimal yield and abundance in a fluctuating environment and conditions for a conservative level of harvest were obtained for the Fox surplus production model and compared with those for the logistic surplus production model. Environmental variation was included in the optimization of harvest with the Fox surplus production model to obtain a relation in which the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and biomass at the MSY varied as the environment varied. The relation can be applied for management of fisheries at the optimum levels in a fluctuating environment. For both models there is only one maximum sustainable yield under equilibrium conditions, but in a variable environment the maximum sustainable yield and optimum biomass and effort vary as the environment varies. The results were applied to the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery of the Chesapeake Bay. Although several numerical results for the logistic and Fox models were similar, the parameter estimates were different and the Fox model predicted a much larger decrease in population abundance at the MSY. Harvesting at a conservative level with either the Fox model or the logistic model could increase blue crab abundance substantially with little decrease in harvest. At a conservative level of harvest, there is a 20% increase in biomass with a 6% decrease in yield for the logistic model and a 37% increase in biomass with a 9% decrease in yield for the Fox model. Both the Fox and the logistic surplus production models indicate that the blue crab fishery has been consistently over harvested.     

Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100 ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.     

Agricultural production and bird conservation in complex landscapes of the dry Chaco

The South American dry Chaco is a mosaic of woody vegetation and grasslands with high deforestation rates in recent decades. Considering forests and grasslands as the main natural habitats, we assessed the trade-offs between bird populations and agricultural production to compare the potential consequences of different land use strategies (‘sharing’, ‘sparing’, and intermediate) for populations of bird species sensitive to agriculture, while attaining a regional production target. We evaluated how populations responded to scenarios with different proportions of forest and grasslands, considering three reference states (100% forest, 80:20% and 50:50% forest and grasslands, respectively); and scenarios capable of meeting three after-farming scenarios, with land destined to reach a regional production target with three variations of forest:grasslands within spared land. We fitted curves to relate bird abundance to agricultural yield along a gradient of meat production intensity; and we classified bird species as ‘losers’ (if their populations were lower than the baseline population in the reference state, at any level of production) and ‘winners’ (if their current populations were higher than the baseline population). At the ‘current’ (c. 2010) level of regional agricultural production, we found a similar number of loser species maximized by land-sparing and land-sharing strategies; while intermediate strategies were the least favourable to balance production and bird populations. Under the most probable scenarios of increases in regional meat production, most loser bird species populations were maximized by a land-sparing strategy, suggesting that if meat production targets are going to increase in the region, this can be more efficiently achieved by combining well-protected forests and grasslands, and high-yielding mechanized agriculture (e.g. soybean). Our results highlight the importance of assessing all the important natural habitats (e.g. forests and grasslands) of a region to explore conservation strategies at a regional scale.     

全球环境变化对农作物影响的研究进展

从CO2浓度升高、CO2浓度与温度升高以及CO2浓度与水分变化的协同作用、CO2浓度升高与环境盐胁迫的协同作用和作物产量预测模拟及其适应对策4个方面总结了近年来国内外关于农业生产对全球环境变化的响应与适应及其变化趋势的研究进展，指出目前人类关于农业生产对未来全球环境变化响应机理的理解与预测很有限，提出中国未来需要拟加强的研究领域．参38     

Hierarchical Bayes estimation of hunting success rates

Although most post-season harvest surveys are conducted at the state level, the effective management of wildlife populations often requires estimates of hunting success rate, hunting pressure and harvest at the sub-area (such as management unit, regional, or county) level.Sample sizes for some sub-areas are often very small or even zero. Because of small sample sizes, estimates for small sub-areas often yield unacceptably large standard errors. In this article, a hierarchical Bayes model is used to estimate hunting success rates at the sub-area level from post-season harvest surveys. The computation is done by Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. The method is illustrated using data from the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey 1994 Spring Season. The Bayesian estimates are close to the frequency estimates for the sub-areas with large sample sizes and more stable than the frequency estimates for those with small sample sizes. The Bayesian estimates will be more useful to wildlife biologists in estab-lishing hunting regulation on small sub-areas at no additional survey cost.     

Housing values,census estimates,disequilibrium, and the environmental cost of airport noise: A case study of Atlanta

Two unresolved issues about airport noise-property value studies are addressed. The first issue concerns the comparability of empirical results from aggregate census data vs individual sales values, and the second issue concerns the homogeneity and stability of results from housing price studies over time and across markets. Hedonic price models from two sets of data for a residential area near the Atlanta International Airport are estimated at two points in time 1979–1980 and 1970–1972. The available data yield similar estimates of the noise discount over time, and from the prices of individual house sales vs owner-appraised census block aggregates.     

岷江上游典型村落资源利用与影响动因分析

从耕地占有数量及利用效率、土地资源构成、村落农业生产技术以及村落布局4个方面,研究岷江上游4个典型村落农业资源利用变化特点,认为农业资源禀赋条件、科技进步程度、民族文化和历史因素、制度政策、市场因子以及生态环境状况是形成村落资源利用的基本动因。     

Spatial evolution and specialization division of crop planting structure in counties of Tibet,China北大核心CSCD

从农业区域系统的角度分析农作物的空间集聚和专业化,可为农业产业结构调整及优化提供决策依据.以西藏粮食作物、油料作物、蔬菜和饲草4类作物为研究对象,基于1995-2020年西藏农业统计年鉴农作物播种面积数据分析西藏农作物种植面积时序变化,基于1995-2018年统计年鉴农作物播种面积数据和74个县域空间单元,综合运用重心模型、基尼系数、区位熵及空间自相关模型,通过ArcGIS软件分析西藏作物种植空间变化及专业化格局.结果显示:(1)西藏粮食作物种植面积占比历年均占绝对优势,但呈逐年下降趋势,油料作物种植面积整体呈波动性小幅上升,蔬菜和青饲料种植面积逐年明显增长.粮食作物、经济作物(含油料作物和蔬菜)、饲料作物比例从1995年的86:12:2调整到2020年的68:17:14.(2)1995-2015年间西藏粮食和油料生产重心较为稳定,未出现较大范围的地理迁移,其他农作物重心迁移距离较大,从东南向西北迁移416.7 km.(3)西藏农作物均呈现一定程度的空间集聚和区域专业化生产格局,但在研究期内生产集聚及专业化水平呈下降趋势.(4)将西藏粮食、油料和其他农作物划分为绝对优势区、比较优势区、优势衰退区、潜力优势区、不具优势区、优势退出区、可种植区和无种植区8种类型.本研究表明西藏农作物种植结构调整明显,基于生产格局及演变趋势划定了专业化分区,可引导农作物生产布局优化,对有效保障西藏地区粮食安全具有重要意义.(图6表5参26)     

Indirect land use change from ethanol production: the case of sugarcane expansion at the farm level on the Brazilian Cerrado

The expansion of sugarcane production in the Brazilian Cerrado has resulted in indirect land use change (ILUC), occurring when displaced land uses in one location are reallocated to another. Studies, however, usually identify ILUC at the regional or national level far from the original area of a displaced land use. This study examines the occurrence of ILUC due to sugarcane expansion for ethanol production at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado. It fills a gap in the literature by examining socioeconomic, policy and farm-level factors that influence ILUC at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado using face-to-face enumerated surveys. Results indicate that ILUC did occur at the farm (producer) scale and farmers who undertook ILUC intensified agricultural production on their farms. Results inform policymakers on how the intensification of agricultural practices may make it potentially difficult to keep protected lands out of production, reducing the environmental benefits from sugarcane-based biofuel production.     

Traditional agriculture in transition: a case of Har-ki Doon Valley (Govind Pashu Vihar Sanctuary and National Park) in Central Himalaya

Traditional crop diversity and landraces in agricultural land use in Himalaya have great significant for long-term sustainability of agroecosystems, together with conservation and management of the surrounding landscape. Traditional crop varieties and races, which evolved over time through trial and error, not only provide basic nutritional requirements, but also food security. Loss of crop biodiversity has taken place over recent years, principally and inadvertently related to changing lifestyle, growing demand for cash crops in regional markets and burgeoning apple farming, whose acreage has increased with a concomitant decline in area under traditional crops. For sustainable landscape development, on-farm conservation of traditional crop diversity is urgently needed. An empirical study was done to understand the causes and consequences of declines in crop biodiversity and production, effect of apple farming on traditional crops and changing lifestyles of traditional people.     

Identification of the putative aggregation pheromone components emitted by the European earwig, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Forficula auricularia</Emphasis>

The European earwig, Forficula auricularia is an invasive insect found in many temperate regions of the world and is regarded as an urban and agricultural pest of numerous crops. Several studies have shown that F. auricularia aggregate in large numbers with the use of an aggregation pheromone. However, the identity of compounds which constitute the pheromone remains elusive. Our aim was to isolate and identify the aggregation pheromone used by F. auricularia using both solvent washes of individuals and thermal desorption of substrates exposed to earwigs. Solvent washes of male, female and juvenile earwigs isolated 51 different branched and unbranched alkanes, alkenes and alkadienes. Substrates exposed to aggregating field populations in situ were demonstrated to be attractive to earwigs after less than 24 h of exposure. Analysis of these substrates using thermal desorption and solvent washes showed that hydrocarbons were the only detectable compounds laid down by earwigs on these surfaces. Significant behavioural responses were observed to synthetic blends of the unsaturated hydrocarbons containing (Z)-7-tricosene, (Z)-9-tricosene, (Z)-7-pentacosene and (Z)-9-pentacosene at ≥25 insect equivalents in field-based bioassays. However, behavioural responses to these blends proved inconsistent particularly later in the field season, possibly due to a missing component within the pheromone blend or plasticity in the pheromones production and response.     

Trade‐Offs between Cattle Production and Bird Conservation in an Agricultural Frontier of the Gran Chaco of Argentina

Intensification of food production in tropical landscapes in the absence of land‐use planning can pose a major threat to biological diversity. Decisions on whether to spatially integrate or segregate lands for production and conservation depend in part on the functional relations between biological diversity and agricultural productivity. We measured diversity, density, and species composition of birds along a gradient of production intensification on an agricultural frontier of the Argentine Chaco, where dry tropical forests are cleared for cattle production. Bird species diversity in intact forests was higher than in any type of cattle‐production system. Bird species richness decreased nonlinearly as cattle yield increased. Intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems, those in which forest understory is selectively cleared to grow pastures of non‐native plants beneath the tree canopy, produced 80% of the mean cattle yield obtained in pastures on cleared areas and were occupied by 70–90% of the number of bird species present in the nearest forest fragments. Densities of >50% of bird species were significantly lower in open pastures than in silvopastoral systems. Therefore, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems may have the greatest potential to sustain cattle yield and conserve a large percentage of bird species. However, compared with low‐intensity production systems, in which forest structure and extent were intact, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems supported significantly fewer forest‐restricted bird species and fewer frugivorous birds. These data suggest that the integration of production and conservation through intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems combined with the protection of forest fragments may be required to maintain cattle yield, bird diversity, and conservation of forest‐restricted species in this agricultural frontier. Compromisos entre la Producción de Ganado y la Conservación de Aves en una Frontera Agrícola del Gran Chaco de Argentina     

Improved estimates of net primary productivity from modis satellite data at regional and local scales.

We compared estimates of net primary production (NPP) from the MODIS satellite with estimates from a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-CN) and forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data for forest types of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The regional means were similar for the three methods and for the dominant oak-hickory forests in the region. However, MODIS underestimated NPP for less-dominant northern hardwood forests and overestimated NPP for coniferous forests. Causes of inaccurate estimates of NPP by MODIS were (1) an aggregated classification and parameterization of diverse deciduous forests in different climatic environments into a single class that averages different radiation conversion efficiencies; and (2) lack of soil water constraints on NPP for forests or areas that occur on thin or sandy, coarse-grained soil. We developed the "available soil water index" for adjusting the MODIS NPP estimates, which significantly improved NPP estimates for coniferous forests. The MODIS NPP estimates have many advantages such as globally continuous monitoring and remarkable accuracy for large scales. However, at regional or local scales, our study indicates that it is necessary to adjust estimates to specific vegetation types and soil water conditions.     

Biodiversität von agrarisch genutzten Ökosystemen in den Verhandlungen der COP 9 – Streitpunkt Agrartreibstoffe

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) originating from 1992 today has 190 Parties. In 2000 the convention decided on a programme of work on agricultural biodiversity which explicitly included the diversity of races and types of species used in agriculture. This programme was scheduled for an In-Depth Review at the Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP 9). The preparatory meetings of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA) already indicated that the production and use of biofuels would be a controversial issue during COP. Parties producing biofuels emphasised the CO₂ neutrality while importing countries called for standards for sustainable production. Developing countries mentioned the risk of losing agricultural area suitable for food production and indigenous representatives asked for social standards in agricultural production and respecting of their land ownership. A compromise could only be found at ministerial level during the last conference day, agreeing that all production of biofuels should be sustainable in relation to biodiversity and under this condition urging Parties to promote the production and use of biofuels. Research on the positive and negative impacts of biofuels should be conducted.