Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

The concept of the Portuguese National Ecological Reserve: constraints and impossibilities in the Azores Archipelago

The biophysical features of small islands (SI) distinguish them from other territories; isolation, small size and several anthropogenic pressures reduce the resilience of ecosystems and increase their vulnerability to global changes. Many SI have a shortage of infrastructures, institutions and technical/financial resources that hinder planning and require different integrated solutions. In Portugal, the National Ecological Reserve (NER) is legally binding for spatial planning instruments. It aims to defend natural values and areas of ecological value, or sensibility, or susceptible to natural hazards. However, the criteria for the design of NER are strictly set for mainland territory, not taking into account specific features of small islands. A case study of the Azores Archipelago is used to demonstrate that spatial planning instruments should be adapted to island contexts. Such adaptation will increase the effectiveness of their implementation in relation to the protection of natural resources, stability of biophysical structures and prevention of natural hazards. Observing the main differences between mainland and the Azores Archipelago it is possible to define a methodological transposition of the NER aims and goals into an island context. This approach is an answer to the constraints in effective adaptation of spatial planning instruments for islands.     

Management of natural hazards in Europe: The role of spatial planning in selected EU member states

This paper presents the results of an assessment made as a part of the research project, Applied Multi-Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact Assessment (ARMONIA). The aim was to identify which aspects in the so-called disaster management cycle are covered by spatial planning in planning practice in the European Union's member states of Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. In contrast to the initial hypothesis, the analysis of planning practice has shown that the role of spatial planning in risk assessment and management in many ways has been overestimated. The results have shown that spatial planning is only one of many actors in risk management and that it is, in general, not involved in risk assessment. Further, multi-risk assessment approaches are not used in planning practice, risk indicators are hardly used and vulnerability indicators are not at all used. The paper will interpret these surprising results and will answer the question of the role of spatial planning in natural risk assessment and management.     

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy)

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.     

Developing the interaction matrix technique as a tool assessing the impact of traffic on air quality

This paper develops a technique which can be used as a preliminary tool for assessing air quality related to urban traffic. It combines a Geographic Information System (GIS) with an interaction matrix-type methodology based on a system analysis approach. The matrix identifies and quantifies interactions between all selected variables involved in a system as well as their interaction with the system as a whole. This matrix is used to determine the weightings to apply to spatial datasets within a GIS to develop a pollution vulnerability map. The focus of the paper is to introduce and assess a more versatile coding of the interaction matrix with respect to previously used coding. A case study is presented in which the modified interaction methodology is applied to data for a busy urban location. The resulting vulnerability map, in terms of pollution vulnerable hot spots, was compared to a pollution map derived from an advanced dispersion model. The interaction matrix technique with GIS can be used as a tool complementary to sophisticated numerical modelling and has potential as an analytical tool to evaluate multidisciplinary systems.     

Reliability of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through statistical methods

Statistical methods are widely used in environmental studies to evaluate natural hazards. Within groundwater vulnerability in particular, statistical methods are used to support decisions about environmental planning and management. The production of vulnerability maps obtained by statistical methods can greatly help decision making. One of the key points in all of these studies is the validation of the model outputs, which is performed through the application of various techniques to analyze the quality and reliability of the final results and to evaluate the model having the best performance. In this study, a groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate contamination was performed for the shallow aquifer located in the Province of Milan (Italy). The Weights of Evidence modeling technique was used to generate six model outputs, each one with a different number of input predictive factors. Considering that a vulnerability map is meaningful and useful only if it represents the study area through a limited number of classes with different degrees of vulnerability, the spatial agreement of different reclassified maps has been evaluated through the kappa statistics and a series of validation procedures has been proposed and applied to evaluate the reliability of the reclassified maps. Results show that performance is not directly related to the number of input predictor factors and that is possible to identify, among apparently similar maps, those best representing groundwater vulnerability in the study area. Thus, vulnerability maps generated using statistical modeling techniques have to be carefully handled before they are disseminated. Indeed, the results may appear to be excellent and final maps may perform quite well when, in fact, the depicted spatial distribution of vulnerability is greatly different from the actual one. For this reason, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the obtained results using multiple statistical techniques that are capable of providing quantitative insight into the analysis of the results. This evaluation should be done at least to reduce the questionability of the results and so to limit the number of potential choices.     

SPATIAL MODELLING WITH GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR DETERMINATION OF WATER RESOURCES VULNERABILITY APPLICATION TO AN AREA IN MASSIF CENTRAL (FRANCE)1

ABSTRACT: A method for water resources protection based on spatial variability of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability of a water resource is defined as the risk that the resource will become contaminated if a pollutant is placed on the surface at one point as compared to another. A spatial modelling method is defined in this paper to estimate a travel time between any point of a catchment and a resource (river or well). This method is based on spatial analysis tools integrated in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The method is illustrated by an application to an area of Massif Central (France) where three different types of flow appear: surface flow, shallow subsurface flow, and permanent ground water flow (baseflow). The proposed method gives results similar to classical methods of estimation of travel time. The contribution of GIS is to improve the mapping of vulnerability by taking the spatial variability of physical phenomena into account.     

A qualitative tool combining an interaction matrix and a GIS to map vulnerability to traffic induced air pollution

Local authorities and transport planners need fast and straightforward tools to perform their preliminary air quality assessments. Such tools are required to provide an initial impression of the local air quality and to highlight areas requiring a more rigorous investigation. This paper presents a technique to develop such a tool, for performing an initial assessment of air quality due to traffic in an urban area. The technique combines an interaction matrix methodology as developed for rock engineering systems, with Geographical Information System (GIS) map overlaying. This interaction matrix methodology incorporates a total system approach, which identifies the main parameters and quantifies the interactions between them. Weighting values for these parameters are obtained either through parametric studies, using numerical modelling, or from engineering judgement. These weightings are applied to spatial datasets for a study area using a GIS. The GIS results are presented in the form of a vulnerability map, which highlights the areas susceptible to poor air quality. This visual interpretation of the results is ideal for local authorities, who have to report to a wide range of non-specialists in the field, for example, planners, councillors and the public. The vulnerability map compares favourably with pollutant concentration patterns, obtained from an advanced dispersion model.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.     

Utility assessment of a map-based online geo-collaboration tool

Spatial group decision-making processes often include both informal and analytical components. Discussions among stakeholders or planning experts are an example of an informal component. When participants discuss spatial planning projects they typically express concerns and comments by pointing to places on a map. The Argumentation Map model provides a conceptual basis for collaborative tools that enable explicit linkages of arguments to the places to which they refer. These tools allow for the input of explicitly geo-referenced arguments as well as the visual access to arguments through a map interface. In this paper, we will review previous utility studies in geo-collaboration and evaluate a case study of a Web-based Argumentation Map application. The case study was conducted in the summer of 2005 when student participants discussed planning issues on the University of Toronto St. George campus. During a one-week unmoderated discussion phase, 11 participants wrote 60 comments on issues such as safety, facilities, parking, and building aesthetics. By measuring the participants' use of geographic references, we draw conclusions on how well the software tool supported the potential of the underlying concept. This research aims to contribute to a scientific approach to geo-collaboration in which the engineering of novel spatial decision support methods is complemented by a critical assessment of their utility in controlled, realistic experiments.     

Measuring and Incorporating Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach. Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.     

Nontraditional settlement patterns and typhoon hazard on contemporary Majuro atoll,Republic of the Marshall Islands

Low-lying islands and atolls are particularly prone to storm surges created by tropical depressions and typhoons. This paper presents a case study of traditional and contemporary settlement patterns of Majuro, the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and discusses its vulnerability to such storm surges. The paper shows that the application of traditional knowledge extends to the realm of urban planning and that, in fact, ignoring this traditional knowledge as expressed in pre-World War II settlement patterns, exposes urban development to increased flood hazards, a risk which may exact a price too high in life and property.     

Landscape Characterization Integrating Expert and Local Spatial Knowledge of Land and Forest Resources

In many developing countries, political documentation acknowledges the crucial elements of participation and spatiality for effective land use planning. However, operative approaches to spatial data inclusion and representation in participatory land management are often lacking. In this paper, we apply and develop an integrated landscape characterization approach to enhance spatial knowledge generation about the complex human–nature interactions in landscapes in the context of Zanzibar, Tanzania. We apply an integrated landscape conceptualization as a theoretical framework where the expert and local knowledge can meet in spatial context. The characterization is based on combining multiple data sources in GIS, and involves local communities and their local spatial knowledge since the beginning into the process. Focusing on the expected information needs for community forest management, our characterization integrates physical landscape features and retrospective landscape change data with place-specific community knowledge collected through participatory GIS techniques. The characterization is established in a map form consisting of four themes and their synthesis. The characterization maps are designed to support intuitive interpretation, express the inherently uncertain nature of the data, and accompanied by photographs to enhance communication. Visual interpretation of the characterization mediates information about the character of areas and places in the studied local landscape, depicting the role of forest resources as part of the landscape entity. We conclude that landscape characterization applied in GIS is a highly potential tool for participatory land and resource management, where spatial argumentation, stakeholder communication, and empowerment are critical issues.     

Natural disaster mitigation: Environmental approaches in Tonga and Algeria

Summary The mitigation of natural disasters essentially depends upon the identification and adjustment of human ecological processes contributing to conditions of vulnerability. The analysis of vulnerability requires the local study of political, social, and economic processes which have contributed, and are contributing, to a vulnerable condition in a hazardous environment. One of the few similarities between Tonga and Algeria is a continuing experience of natural disaster after independence from previous colonial administrations. In two very different but complementary projects, ways are identified for the adjustment of assumed or inherited priorities for development, to take practical account of continuing hazards. The high vulnerability of rural areas is a factor common to both countries, as well as to many others. The analysis of conditions and systems in two dissimilar countries may have begun a process of implementation, one which must necessarily follow theoretical analysis for the realisation of practical value. The degree and nature of disaster impact is conditioned as much by normally prevailing conditions and systems as by the manifestation of natural hazard. Direct experience of hazardous environments, and of problems caused by disaster, must be made to result in the creation of multi-disciplinary environmental policies for disaster mitigation, inclusive of small scale development and education and training programmes for continued implementation. Comprehensive and simultaneous strategies for disaster avoidance, disaster resistance, and disaster accomodation must be made integral components of local development planning.     

Computerized Map of Risk to Manage Wildlife Species in Urban Areas

For the last 20 years, human–wildlife conflicts have been rapidly increasing in towns. Although people want “greener” cities, the expansion of disliked species causes problems that are difficult to manage and to reduce. The complexity of the numerous factors involved in these human–wildlife relations needs the development of a comprehensive tool for urban planners. Today, with the development of computers and geographical information systems, it is easier to analyze and combine different spatial data as methods used for the management of risks in studies of natural hazards. Here we present a method for assessing and mapping the risk in cases of human–wildlife conflict. An application to starling management in a town in western France will show the efficiency of our methods to combine information given by a network of experts and to highlight higher risk sites. The map of risk provides a spatial result useful for comprehension, communication between people and agencies, and public education.     

RATES,RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process.     

Plan integration for resilience scorecard: evaluating networks of plans in six US coastal cities

Planning for hazard mitigation is frequently detached from other planning activities that influence development patterns in hazardous areas. Consistent integration of mitigation reduces hazard vulnerability for people and the built environment. We apply a plan integration for resilience scorecard in six US coastal cities to evaluate the integration of local networks of plans and the degree to which they target areas most vulnerable to flooding hazards. We find that plan integration scores vary widely across the six cities, and that some plans actually increase vulnerability in hazard zones. Policies also frequently support mitigation in areas with low vulnerability, rather than in areas with high vulnerability. The plan integration for resilience scorecard can generate information to improve hazard planning by allowing planners to identify conflicts between plans, assess whether plans target areas that are most vulnerable, and better inform decision makers about opportunities to mainstream mitigation into multiple sectors of planning.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment for Organic Compounds: Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Mexico City

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multicriteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km² or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.     

Integrating social preference in GIS-aided planning for forestry and conservation activities: a case study from rural SE Asia

Land-use planning using geographic information systems (GIS) commonly emphasizes biophysical spatial data; however planning can be improved by integrating spatial sets of socioeconomic data into the GIS. As an example, we compared a traditional GIS-aided forestry planning protocol that considered only biophysical suitability, with an integrated GIS-aided approach that incorporated both biophysical and socioeconomic suitability. The analyses were conducted for the planning of plantation investments in the Kyaukpadaung Township in the dry zone of central Myanmar. The traditional approach used three biophysical layers for suitability: land use, slope, and accessibility. In contrast, the integrated GIS approach included biophysical suitability data, perceptions and preferences of local villagers towards forestry (social suitability), and quantitative socioeconomic data. The results indicated that the integrated approach provided two principal benefits over the traditional method. First, the integrated method resulted in a more precise idea of suitable sites for plantation investment that could benefit more rural people and also lead to greater investment efficiency. Second, incorporating social preference into the GIS takes into account the crucial element of social capital (viz., social preference), which should lead to higher levels of community acceptance of plantation projects because those plantations would be established on socially suitable land. A second GIS exercise showed how conservation investment decisions could be informed using the integrated method. The results of this study support the idea that GIS-aided planning activities can be enhanced through the incorporation of social data into the analysis. When applicable, spatial data collection efforts for GIS-based planning exercises should incorporate spatial socioeconomic data.     

A Critical Realist Perspective on Urban Environmental Risk: a case study of an informal settlement in South Africa

This paper uses a critical realist framework to analyse environmental risk in a local space. It argues that urban risk needs to be understood in terms of the causal mechanisms that shape risk events and the contingent conditions that provide the context within which they occur. It uses a case study of an informal settlement in Hout Bay, South Africa, to explore these ideas. It is an approach that challenges the dominant technical and scientific discourse that usually determines the understanding of risk. The research suggests that the key causal mechanisms that shape risk events in informal settlements are globalisation and urbanisation, poverty and vulnerability, the social construction of environmental problems, gender relations, the rise of civil society organisations, political governance and the spatial distribution of risk. The environmental characteristics of the site, as well as the development of the settlement during the political transformation in South Africa, are the key contingent conditions determining the nature of risk.