Quantifying Eradication Success: the Removal of Feral Pigs from Santa Cruz Island, California

Abstract:  A major challenge facing pest-eradication efforts is determining when eradication has been achieved. When the pest can no longer be detected, managers have to decide whether the pest has actually been eliminated and hence to decide when to terminate the eradication program. For most eradication programs, this decision entails considerable risk and is the largest single issue facing managers of such programs. We addressed this issue for an eradication program of feral pigs ( Sus scrofa ) from Santa Cruz Island, California. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the degree of confidence in the success of the eradication program at the point when monitoring failed to detect any more pigs. Catch-effort modeling of the hunting effort required to dispatch pigs during the eradication program was used to determine the relationship between detection probability and searching effort for different hunting methods. We then used these relationships to estimate the amount of monitoring effort required to declare eradication successful with criteria that either set a threshold for the probability that pigs remained undetected (type I error) or minimized the net expected costs of the eradication program (cost of type I and II errors). For aerial and ground-based monitoring techniques, the amount of search effort required to declare eradication successful on the basis of either criterion was highly dependent on the prior belief in the success of the program unless monitoring intensities exceeded 30 km of searching effort per square kilometer of search area for aerial monitoring and, equivalently, 38 km for ground monitoring. Calculation of these criteria to gauge the success of eradication should form an essential component of any eradication program as it allows for a transparent assessment of the risks inherent in the decision to terminate the program.     

Development and phenology of Ecklonia radiata at two depths in Goat Island Bay,New Zealand

Ecklonia radiata (C. Ag.) J. Ag. growing in Goat Island Bay, New Zealand produced up to 6 kg dry weight of tissue m^-2 yr^-1 in dense populations at 7-m depth. Half this tissue and an unknown amount of exudates were sloughed or torn off. Tissue production at 15 m was 0.3 to 0.5 kg m^-2 yr^-1. At this depth the plants grew only half as fast as in shallow water and the population density was decreased. Approximately 20% by weight of tissue produced at 7 m and 10% of that at 15 m was reproductive tissue. At both depths the elongation rate and percentage of water in stipes varied with stipe size. Initial sorus formation was related to plant size and not to age. Seasonal fluctuations in growth rate, haptera formation, frond size and sporulation were delayed in plants in deeper water.     

Feral Goat Eradications on Islands

Abstract:  Introduced mammals are major drivers of extinction. Feral goats ( Capra hircus ) are particularly devastating to island ecosystems, causing direct and indirect impacts through overgrazing, which often results in ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss. Removing goat populations from islands is a powerful conservation tool to prevent extinctions and restore ecosystems. Goats have been eradicated successfully from 120 islands worldwide. With newly developed technology and techniques, island size is perhaps no longer a limiting factor in the successful removal of introduced goat populations. Furthermore, the use of global positioning systems, geographic information systems, aerial hunting by helicopter, specialized hunting dogs, and Judas goats has dramatically increased efficiency and significantly reduced the duration of eradication campaigns. Intensive monitoring programs are also critical for successful eradications. Because of the presence of humans with domestic goat populations on large islands, future island conservation actions will require eradication programs that involve local island inhabitants in a collaborative approach with biologists, sociologists, and educators. Given the clear biodiversity benefits, introduced goat populations should be routinely removed from islands.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Eradication of Invasive Mammals on Islands Inhabited by Humans and Domestic Animals

Abstract: Non‐native invasive mammal species have caused major ecological change on many islands. To conserve native species diversity, invasive mammals have been eradicated from several islands not inhabited by humans. We reviewed the challenges associated with campaigns to eradicate invasive mammals from islands inhabited by humans and domestic animals. On these islands, detailed analyses of the social, cultural, and economic costs and benefits of eradication are required to increase the probability of local communities supporting the eradication campaign. The ecological benefits of eradication (e.g., improvement of endemic species’ probability of survival) are difficult to trade‐off against social and economic costs due to the lack of a common currency. Local communities may oppose an eradication campaign because of perceived health hazards, inconvenience, financial burdens, religious beliefs, or other cultural reasons. Besides these social challenges, the presence of humans and domestic animals also complicates eradication and biosecurity procedures (measures taken to reduce the probability of unwanted organisms colonizing an island to near zero). For example, houses, garbage‐disposal areas, and livestock‐feeding areas can provide refuges for certain mammals and therefore can decrease the probability of a successful eradication. Transport of humans and goods to an island increases the probability of inadvertent reintroduction of invasive mammals, and the establishment of permanent quarantine measures is required to minimize the probability of unwanted recolonization after eradication. We recommend a close collaboration between island communities, managers, and social scientists from the inception of an eradication campaign to increase the probability of achieving and maintaining an island permanently free of invasive mammals.     

Drivers of Seabird Population Recovery on New Zealand Islands after Predator Eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator‐free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. Conductores de la Recuperación de Poblaciones de Aves Marinas en Islas de Nueva Zelanda después de la Erradicación de Depredadores     

A population viability analysis for the Island Fox on Santa Catalina Island,California

The island fox (Urocyon littoralis) on Santa Catalina Island is among the most imperiled species on the Channel Islands due to a recent outbreak of canine distemper virus (CDV). The western subpopulation, which was not exposed to CDV, is a crucial element in the recovery of foxes by providing a source of animals for translocation and captive breeding. Using the program VORTEX, we developed a population viability analysis for the Santa Catalina Island fox to (1) address the likelihood of population persistence, (2) estimate the current susceptibility of the population to catastrophic events, and (3) evaluate the efficacy of current restoration strategies of releasing captive bred foxes and transplanting wild animals. Overall, we found the population to be susceptible to catastrophic events; a 50% increase in mortality every 20 years was sufficient to elevate the extinction risk above 5%. Current management activities entail the transplanting of 12 juvenile foxes annually, which may reduce the viability of the western subpopulation. A minimum population size of at least 150 foxes should be maintained in each subpopulation to reduce the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity. Releases of translocated and captive bred animals affect the speed of recovery on the eastern half of Catalina Island, but not the probability of extinction, which is near zero under current conditions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for demographic parameters by incrementally varying survival, fecundity and density-dependence parameters, while holding all other parameters constant. Sensitivity analyses identified mortality and mean litter size as the most sensitive parameters, while the implementation of density-dependence and environmental variation of model parameters did not seem to affect population performance. We conclude that the population of island foxes on Santa Catalina is currently at a critically low population level, but recovery of the species appears possible.     

Response of Ecklonia radiata (Laminariales) to light at 15°C with reference to the field light budget at Goat Island Bay,New Zealand

Gametophytes of Ecklonia radiata (C.Ag.)J.Ag. grew in culture at 15°C under daily quantum doses ranging from 0.86 to 360 cE m^-2. Growth rates increased with quantum doses up to 40 cE m^-2 d^-1, then reproduction began and the relative growth constant declined while ovum release came earlier with increasing light up to about 100 cE m^-2 d^-1. Above 100 cE m^-2 d^-1 there were no consistent trends with increasing light, except that at the higher quantum doses, fertile female plants had fewer and larger cells and therefore fewer potential ova. Reproduction varied with daily quantum dose rather than with daylength. Given the same daily dose, plants grew fastest in low photon flux density, long daylength conditions. Gametophytes grown in the field developed at similar rates to those in culture. Gametophytes survived seven months of darkness at 10°C but died after one week of darkness at 20° to 23°C. Sunlight of 1 000 E m^-2 s^-1 was fatal to gametophytes and to sporophytes under 2 mm long after 10 to 15 min. Light budgets were prepared for plants growing at 7-and 15-m depths from 1976 to May 1980 in Goat Island Bay, New Zealand (Lat.36° 16S, Long. 174° 48E). Underwater light was measured under various environmental conditions. Relationships between transmission of light through the sea, data from diving visibility records and continuous surface meteorological records were studied. Approximations were made of the average percentage of surface light transmitted to 7 and 15 m over half-monthly periods. By applying these average transmittance values to the records of surface incident light, the average daily quantum doses were calculated. Light on open bottom in Goat Island Bay may sometimes be limiting for gametophyte reproduction in winter at 15-m depth. At depths less than 7 m, summer photon flux densities may reach damaging levels.     

海南岛生态环境质量分析评价

运用遥感和地理信息系统等技术 ,按照景观生态学的原理 ,对海南生态环境现状进行了评价 ,并对近十年来的变化进行了对比分析。结果表明 ,海南生态环境质量由中部向外依次降低 ,天然林从数量上看面积在减少 ,从空间上看沿着边缘线向中部山区退缩。另外 ,土地沙化 /土地退化在向着恢复逆转的方向发展。     

Individual heterogeneity and senescence in silvereyes on Heron Island

Individual heterogeneity and correlations between life history traits play a fundamental role in life history evolution and population dynamics. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in survival can be a nuisance for estimation of age effects at the individual level by causing bias due to mortality selection. We jointly analyze survival and breeding output from successful breeding attempts in an island population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) by fitting models that incorporate age effects and individual heterogeneity via random effects. The number of offspring produced increased with age of parents in their first years of life but then eventually declined with age. A similar pattern was found for the probability of successful breeding. Annual survival declined with age even when individual heterogeneity was not accounted for. The rate of senescence in survival, however, depends on the variance of individual heterogeneity and vice versa; hence, both cannot be simultaneously estimated with precision. Model selection supported individual heterogeneity in breeding performance, but we found no correlation between individual heterogeneity in survival and breeding performance. We argue that individual random effects, unless unambiguously identified, should be treated as statistical nuisance or taken as a starting point in a search for mechanisms rather than given direct biological interpretation.     

旅游目的地吸引力及其影响因素研究--以南澳岛为例

南澳作为广东省唯一的海岛县,资源环境条件优越,近年来旅游业发展迅速,但面临的竞争也日益激烈。文章旨在通过实证研究,分析影响游客选择南澳作为旅游目的地的吸引力因素。研究结果表明,游客可分为三大细分市场:环境偏好者、广泛爱好者和成熟旅游者;影响南澳旅游吸引力的主要因素是旅游项目陈旧、线路单一、服务设施落后、人员素质不高、信息化程度低等。研究成果不仅丰富了实证研究在目的地营销领域中的运用,对南澳旅游的开发和管理也具有实践意义。