Reconciling National and Global Priorities in Adaptation to Climate Change: With an Illustration from Uganda

Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.     

Selected international efforts to address climate change

Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations of the world with a new focus for climate-related activities. Although there remains considerable scientific uncertainty about the extent, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the impacts of such change, actions to address climate change have been initiated both internationally and nationally. Major international activities include the World Climate Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the United Nations Environment Programme.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change.     

Integrating adaptation to climate change in regional plans and programmes: The role of strategic environmental assessment

Climate changes exert negative impacts on the global environments and the human beings. They imply more frequent extreme weather events, which are responsible of sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, droughts, and desertification. Mitigation and adaptation represent intertwined strategies for counteracting climate changes. Mitigation is associated to the lessening of the causes of climate changes and includes actions reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is a proactive concept addressing how humans can adapt and benefit from climate change. The mainstreaming and integration of adaptation to climate change into routine practice can be favored by Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of regional policies, plans and programmes. In this study, we aim at scrutinizing a set of SEA reports of regional plans and programmes adopted in Sardinia (Italy), to investigate if -and to what extent- adaptation to climate change has characterized planning and programming tools. Evidence shows that the integration of adaptation-driven issues into regional planning is still in its infancy but presents the signs of promising expansion.     

Behavioural determinants of an individual's intention to adapt to climate change: Both internal and external perspectives

Climate change has had a significant negative impact on socio-economic factors and the earth's ecology. To cope with climate change, many countries have employed various policies and measures to reduce damage due to climate change. For individual residents, adaptation behaviour is vital for reducing individual welfare losses. This research analysed how psychological determinants and other external factors influence residents' intention to adapt to climate change. We proposed an extended protection motivation theory (PMT) model, developed a reliable scale and conducted a nationwide field survey. We interviewed 1402 residents in 29 provinces, and 874 valid questionnaires were collected, providing data that were used in a structural equation model. The results show that our model can serve as a reliable framework for analysing the determinants of residents' intention to adapt to climate change. Policy is the most important factor for stimulating the formation of residents' adaptation intention. Risk appraisals and adaptation appraisals have positive and significant impacts on the intention of residents to adopt climate change adaptation behaviour. Information and climate perception do not directly influence residents' behavioural intentions but indirectly affect their intentions through the process of risk appraisal and adaptation appraisal. Corresponding policy suggestions are made that may be helpful for the formulation of adaptation policies.     

Environmental impact assessment: National approaches and international needs

This paper examines the spread and development of ‘environmental impact assessment’ (EIA) since the enactment of the U.S. Environmental Policy Act on January 1, 1970, which established for the first time under any jurisdiction the formal requirement that an EIA be made and that an ‘environmental impact statement’ (EIS) be filed prior to implementation of certain major development projects. The paper is divided into three parts. In the first part, we briefly review the forms of EIA introduced in the western industrial countries and contrast these with developments in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, and in the Third World. The approaches to EIA adopted by five countries — the United States, Australia, Canada, the Federal Republic of Germany, and the Soviet Union — are used to illustrate the types of national approaches that have been followed. In the second part of the paper, we use some questions raised by impact assessments as codified in legislation or regulations at the national level to highlight some of the limitations of impact assessment. Finally, we turn to international impact assessments and describe the modest progress made to date. Key impediments to the development of appropriate conceptual and institutional frameworks and methodologies for international EIAs are noted. In conclusion, we offer some suggestions about needed actions at both the national and international levels.     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.     

Adaptation to What and Why?

Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century.Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.     

Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA).This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements.Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal.The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA.     

Coping with climate change related conflicts – The first framework to identify and tackle these emerging topics

Climate change is supposed to exacerbate conflicts arising from resource scarcity and contrasting objectives. Some European authors highlighted already the need to look at conflicting interests when elaborating and applying adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study analysed the level of consideration of these emerging topics arising through increased competition of resources, contrasting interests, climate change adaptation as well as mitigation measures for Austria and Southern Germany in detail. Furthermore, it surveyed the application of possible approaches for conflict prevention and mitigation in an international perspective and additionally examined the particular role of SEA as one of the instruments to cope with conflicts related to climate change. The results express the strong need to look at emerging conflicts in cross-sectoral and sectoral adaptation early enough and a strategic perspective. Based on the content analysis of the Austrian and German adaptation and mitigation documents, expert interviews as well as the international literature review, a rather low consideration of these emerging topics as well as approaches to cope with them became evident. In response to these deficiencies, the paper introduces a first framework to identify and tackle emerging and exacerbated conflicts related to climate change. This novel framework is internationally applicable. In the final step of the framework approaches to prevent and minimize conflicts are the key topic. Among these approaches, SEA could take a leading role in case mandatory planning instruments cover the topics related to potential or existing exacerbated fields of conflicts. Overall a mix of formal and informal instruments and a more cross-sectoral perspective seems necessary. To this aim, the paper introduces four main guiding principles to consider and minimize up-coming conflicting topics.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Integrating climate change factor into strategic environmental assessment in China

In recent years, climate change has caused a significant impact on the human living environment, and the greenhouse effect caused by gases such as carbon dioxide cannot be ignored. From the viewpoint of environmental management, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has the functions of value judgment, prediction, and behavioral orientation on the possible impact of strategic planning. Integrating climate change factors into the SEA process can help planners and decision-makers better highlight the importance of climate change in policy and planning stages. Therefore, by combining the development of the SEA of China with relevant international experience, we explore the integration of climate change factors into the SEA framework and construct a technical procedure for such an assessment. A suggestive assessment indicator system for the SEA based on low-carbon targets was established for evaluating the impact of the implementation of strategic planning on low-carbon development goals. The objective is to mitigate the impact of climate change via the SEA and to ensure that the assessment plays an important role in tackling climate change and promoting sustainable development.     

EMAP Overview: Objectives, Approaches, and Achievements

This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change convened in Costa Rica in 1998. Specifically, this paper also summarizes the adaptive management science issues and, in many cases, sectoral options. The Workshop, organized by Canada and Costa Rica, involved more than 200 experts and focused on adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options for climate variability and change.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

The WHO/UNEP Pilot Project on Assessment of Human Exposure to Pollutants through Biological Monitoring

The objectives, development and current status of the WHO/UNEP Pilot Project on Assessment of Human Exposure to Pollutants through Biological Monitoring are described. The project is being carried out within the framework of UNEP's Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) and is supported by funds from UNEP. The long-term objective is to develop and strengthen national, regional and global biological monitoring programmes that will make it possible to accurately assess human exposure to selected toxic pollutants by measuring their concentrations in human tissues and body fluids. In this pilot project the levels of lead and cadmium in venous blood, cadmium in kidney cortex and certain organochlorine compounds in breast milk are being determined in selected population groups in 10–12 countries in different parts of the world. Each participating laboratory has been required to achieve satisfactory results in the quality assurance phase of the project before starting to analyse the human samples and quality assurance has been continued during the monitoring phase. The project started in 1978 and is scheduled for completion by July 1982.     

Integrated background monitoring in the USSR

The whole biosphere of the Earth is faced with an increasing anthropogenic pressure. Mankind uses natural resources for its physical and spiritual demands so widely that undesirable effects appear not only in separate regions but embrace the whole biosphere as well. As a rule, such processes develop slowly. They have an irreversible character and to avoid them, preventive decisions are needed. For that purpose, comprehensive and systematic information on the state of the biosphere is needed.The integrated background monitoring system has been implemented and is in operation in the USSR. Structurally, the integrated background monitoring system is divided into three groups: background stations on land; background stations on fresh water; and background stations on inland and periphery seas.All of the data received from these stations are analyzed and correlated at the Natural Environment and Climate Monitoring Laboratory of the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment, the USSR Academy of Sciences, and in other scientific institutes of the State Committee. The information serves for the assessment of the state of the environment, prediction of anthropogenic effects, and for evaluation of the measures taken to prevent pollution of the biosphere at national and international levels.The information is shared in a wide international exchange within the framework of several international organizations (UNEP, WMO, UNESCO, ECE, CMEA, and others) and of the bilateral agreements on cooperation in the field of environmental protection (USA, France, Sweden, FRG, CMEA Member Countries).     

Challenges in meeting international standards in undertaking social impact assessment in Russia

Implementing good practice social impact assessment (SIA) that meets international standards in countries in transition is problematic. We reflect on the challenges faced when undertaking SIA in the Russian Federation. These challenges restrict meaningful SIA processes from being undertaken and limit public participation and the effective community engagement of project-affected local people. Based on the self-reflexive professional experience of two Russian-based social practitioners, and their discursive interactions with two leading academics in environmental and social impact assessment, as well as on in-depth interviews with prominent Russian and international experts, we identified the key challenges that prevent effective SIA from being implemented in Russia: a lack of understanding of the international standards; discrepancy in the determination of the social area of influence between the national requirements and international standards; difficulties in combining national and international impact assessment processes; and a tendency by companies to restrict stakeholder engagement to the minimum. We hope that by having an awareness of these limitations, improvements to SIA practice in Russia and elsewhere will be made.     

The economics of transboundary air pollution in Europe

Acid rain is causing substantial damage in all Eastern and Western European countries. This article presents a stepwise linear optimisation model, that places transboundary air pollution by SO₂ and NO_x in a game theoretical framework. The national authorities of 28 countries are perceived as players in a game in which they can choose optimal strategies. It is illustrated that optimal national abatement programmes may be far from optimal if considered from an international point of view. Several scenarios are discussed, including a reference case, full cooperation, Pareto optimality and a critical loads approach. The need for international cooperation and regional differentiation of abatement programmes is emphasised.     

Scientific aspects of the framework convention on climate change and national greenhouse gas inventories

Though the principles of the Earth's greenhouse effect have been known for well over a century, it is only recently that advances in climate research have indicated that significant and possibly costly climate change, due to growing emissions of greenhouse gases and their precursors by human activity, is a real possibility. Current estimates of the global human-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are presented, though many sources remain poorly known or understood. The compilation of national greenhouse inventories as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is likely in the longer term to help improve such global estimates, as long as comparable methodologies are used. The development of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is described, emphasizing the strategies employed to gain wide international participation.