Tipping Points in the Arctic: Eyeballing or Statistical Significance?

Arctic ecosystems have experienced and are projected to experience continued large increases in temperature and declines in sea ice cover. It has been hypothesized that small changes in ecosystem drivers can fundamentally alter ecosystem functioning, and that this might be particularly pronounced for Arctic ecosystems. We present a suite of simple statistical analyses to identify changes in the statistical properties of data, emphasizing that changes in the standard error should be considered in addition to changes in mean properties. The methods are exemplified using sea ice extent, and suggest that the loss rate of sea ice accelerated by factor of ~5 in 1996, as reported in other studies, but increases in random fluctuations, as an early warning signal, were observed already in 1990. We recommend to employ the proposed methods more systematically for analyzing tipping points to document effects of climate change in the Arctic.     

Foreword

We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.     

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.     

Towards a Tipping Point in Responding to Change: Rising Costs,Fewer Options for Arctic and Global Societies

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Sea ice and primary production proxies in surface sediments from a High Arctic Greenland fjord: Spatial distribution and implications for palaeoenvironmental studies

In order to establish a baseline for proxy-based reconstructions for the Young Sound–Tyrolerfjord system (Northeast Greenland), we analysed the spatial distribution of primary production and sea ice proxies in surface sediments from the fjord, against monitoring data from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme. Clear spatial gradients in organic carbon and biogenic silica contents reflected marine influence, nutrient availability and river-induced turbidity, in good agreement with in situ measurements. The sea ice proxy IP₂₅ was detected at all sites but at low concentrations, indicating that IP₂₅ records from fjords need to be carefully considered and not directly compared to marine settings. The sea ice-associated biomarker HBI III revealed an open-water signature, with highest concentrations near the mid-July ice edge. This proxy evaluation is an important step towards reliable palaeoenvironmental reconstructions that will, ultimately, contribute to better predictions for this High Arctic ecosystem in a warming climate.     

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic marine ecosystem is shaped by the seasonality of the solar cycle, spanning from 24-h light at the sea surface in summer to 24-h darkness in winter. The amount of light available for under-ice ecosystems is the result of different physical and biological processes that affect its path through atmosphere, snow, sea ice and water. In this article, we review the present state of knowledge of the abiotic (clouds, sea ice, snow, suspended matter) and biotic (sea ice algae and phytoplankton) controls on the underwater light field. We focus on how the available light affects the seasonal cycle of primary production (sympagic and pelagic) and discuss the sensitivity of ecosystems to changes in the light field based on model simulations. Lastly, we discuss predicted future changes in under-ice light as a consequence of climate change and their potential ecological implications, with the aim of providing a guide for future research.     

A synthesis of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycles under pressure from a dwindling cryosphere

The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connected: Sea ice decline is one of the main causes of the rapid warming of the Arctic, and the flow of carbon from rivers into the Arctic Ocean affects marine processes and the air–sea exchange of CO₂. This review, therefore, provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycle, connections in between, and how this complex system is affected by climate change and a declining cryosphere. Ultimately, better knowledge of biogeochemical processes combined with improved model representations of ocean–land interactions are essential to accurately predict the development of arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks.     

Short-Run Allocation of Emissions Allowances and Long-Term Goals for Climate Policy

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3–4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km². Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a ‘tipping point’ in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.     

"It's not that simple": A collaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes, and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada

The Arctic environment, including sea ice, is changing. The impacts of these changes to Inuit and I?upiat ways of life vary from place to place, yet there are common themes as well. The study reported here involved an exchange of hunters, Elders, and others from Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada, as members of a larger research team that also included visiting scientists. Although the physical environments of Barrow and Clyde River are strikingly different, the uses of the marine environment by residents, including sea ice, had many common elements. In both locations, too, extensive changes have been observed in recent years, forcing local residents to respond in a variety of ways. Although generally in agreement or complementary to one another, scientific and indigenous knowledge of sea ice often reflect different perspectives and emphases. Making generalizations about impacts and responses is challenging and should therefore be approached with caution. Technology provides some potential assistance in adapting to changing sea ice, but by itself, it is insufficient and can sometimes have undesirable consequences. Reliable knowledge that can be applied under changing conditions is essential. Collaborative research and firsthand experience are critical to generating such new knowledge.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.     

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.     

What environmental fate processes have the strongest influence on a completely persistent organic chemical's accumulation in the Arctic?

Fate and transport models can be used to identify and classify chemicals that have the potential to undergo long-range transport and to accumulate in remote environments. For example, the Arctic contamination potential (ACP), calculated with the help of the zonally averaged global transport model Globo-POP, is a numerical indicator of an organic chemical's potential to be transported to polar latitudes and to accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem. It is important to evaluate how robust such model predictions are and in particular to appreciate to what extent they may depend on a specific choice of environmental model input parameters. Here, we employ a recently developed graphical method based on partitioning maps to comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ACP estimates to variations in environmental parameters. Specifically, the changes in the ACP of persistent organic contaminants to changes in each environmental input parameter are plotted as a function of the two-dimensional hypothetical “chemical space” defined by two of the three equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water and octanol. Based on the patterns obtained, this chemical space is then segmented into areas of similar parameter sensitivities and superimposed with areas of high default ACP and elevated environmental bioaccumulation potential within the Arctic. Sea ice cover, latitudinal temperature gradient, and macro-diffusive atmospheric transport coefficients, and to a lesser extent precipitation rate, display the largest influence on ACP-values for persistent organic contaminants, including those that may bioaccumulate within the polar marine ecosystems. These environmental characteristics are expected to be significantly impacted by global climate change processes, highlighting the need to explore more explicitly how climate change may affect the long-range transport and accumulation behavior of persistent organic pollutants.     

High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic—the World’s most rapidly warming region—in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-and-transition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems’ responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Numerical evaluation of the PCBs transport over the Northern Hemisphere

The numerical evaluation of selected PCB congener (28, 118, 153, 180) transport over the Northern Hemisphere is carried out for 1996 using MSCE-POP model. This model is a multicompartment three-dimensional one and includes various environmental media such as the atmosphere, soil, vegetation, seawater, and sea ice. The spatial resolution is 2.5 degrees x2.5 degrees for all media except marine one (1.25 degrees x1.25 degrees ). The main model output information is deposition fluxes, spatial distribution of concentrations in environmental media, pathways and source-receptor relationships. Calculation results are analysed for the whole hemisphere and the Arctic region. In particular, this gives an opportunity to estimate the contributions of individual emission source groups to the Arctic pollution. The reliability of the model assessment is analysed by comparison between calculated and observed data.     

Influence of diet and sea ice drift on organochlorine bioaccumulation in Arctic ice-associated amphipods

The drifting sea ice has been suggested as important in the transport and concentration of organic matter and pollutants in the Arctic. We collected sea ice-associated amphipods in the marginal ice zone north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait in September 1998 and 1999 to assess contaminant accumulation in ice-associated organisms. Organochlorine concentrations increased from the more herbivorous Apherusa glacialis to the more carnivorous Gammarus wilkitzkii and the more necrophagous Onisimus spp. The relative contribution of compound classes to the sum of organochlorines differed between the amphipod families, with a higher relative contribution of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) in A. glacialis. The composition of the compound classes HCHs. chlordanes and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) was similar between the amphipod families, whereas the profiles of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) differed. The occurrence of organochlorines differed spatially, with higher alpha-HCH concentrations in amphipods from the Fram Strait in comparison with amphipods collected north of Svalbard. This could be related to the sea ice drift route, since sea ice in the Fram Strait had a drift route across the central Arctic Ocean, while the sea ice north of Svalbard had a western drift route to the sampling stations. Even though marine invertebrates have direct uptake by passive diffusion of contaminants across their gills. our results imply that the species' ecology such as diet is important in the bioaccumulation process of organic pollutants. In addition, the results show that sea ice drift route influences the concentrations of organochlorine pollutants in ice-associated organisms.     

Climate change,future Arctic Sea ice,and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

A significant share of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.     

Nitrous oxide and methane in a changing Arctic Ocean

Human activities are changing the Arctic environment at an unprecedented rate resulting in rapid warming, freshening, sea ice retreat and ocean acidification of the Arctic Ocean. Trace gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) play important roles in both the atmospheric reactivity and radiative budget of the Arctic and thus have a high potential to influence the region’s climate. However, little is known about how these rapid physical and chemical changes will impact the emissions of major climate-relevant trace gases from the Arctic Ocean. The combined consequences of these stressors present a complex combination of environmental changes which might impact on trace gas production and their subsequent release to the Arctic atmosphere. Here we present our current understanding of nitrous oxide and methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and its relevance for regional and global atmosphere and climate and offer our thoughts on how this might change over coming decades.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01633-8.