基于选择试验法的受威胁物种保护偏好及价值评估

科学评价生物多样性价值可为生物多样性和生态系统经济学（the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity,TEEB）支持下的生物资源管理提供有效的技术方法和政策依据,对受威胁物种的保护尤为重要.从TEEB的理念和研究目标出发,以我国特有保护植物——翅果油树（Elaeagnus mollis）为例,采用选择试验法定量评估受访者对受威胁物种保护和开发的偏好以及支付意愿;针对种植面积、产品开发、树苗品种、保护投入和农户收益这5项物种属性,在多模型比较的基础上最终选择随机参数模型（RPL）和潜在分层模型（LCM）进行价值评估.结果表明:基于RPL模型得出受访者的偏好选择具有异质性,正选择偏好的属性变量按重要性表现为“保护增加投入” > “高低端产品同时开发” > “农户收益” > “树苗品种” > “种植面积”,其中对“保护增加投入”的支付意愿〔331.0元/（户·a）〕最高,其次为“高低端产品同时开发”〔242.71元/（户·a）〕;对“保护不投入”为负选择偏好,且支付意愿〔-154.71元/（户·a）〕最低.基于LCM模型可将受访者分为保护偏好型和发展偏好型2个潜在类别,前者所占样本比例远高于后者,他们更愿意在物种保护方面支付较多的费用,而后者更愿意在产品开发上支付较多的费用.补偿剩余分析得到,翅果油树保护和开发的最大价值为285.62元/（户·a）.研究显示,选择试验法在受威胁物种保护及价值评估中具有良好的适用性,评估结果可为物种保护政策的制定提供科学依据.      

景观认知偏好及其人群差异性分析

以武汉市后官湖地区为例,采用层次分析法(AHP)测试了人们对该区域内3种景观类型、12类景观元素的认知偏好情况,并初步分析了景观认知偏好的人群差异性。结果表明:(1)样本人群对不同的景观类型和景观元素表现出不同程度的偏好,并且普遍偏好自然景观(尤其是包含水体和与树木有关的景观元素),其次是半自然景观,最次是人工景观;(2)不同个体对于自然景观的认知偏好表现出明显的差异性,而对于人工景观,样本人群的认知偏好评价较为一致;(3)样本人群的性别、年龄、地区、受教育程度、职业及专业背景均会对个体的景观认知偏好产生不同程度的影响,影响程度从大到小依次为:年龄、职业、地区、专业背景、受教育程度、性别;(4)通过对样本人群个体差异性分析结果,最为偏好自然景观的人群大致具有以下特征:女性、小于45岁、居住在城市地区、大学及以上受教育程度、从事室内工作、具有景观或设计相关专业知识。     

Attitudes to and practices regarding sex selection in China

This paper explores the problem of China's ‘missing’ girls—estimated to run into many millions. It considers the impact of the underpinning Confucian value system in China that has produced a culture of son preference and which, together with China's compulsory family planning program and ‘one child policy’, has effectively established a ‘one son policy’. Discussion of the various means by which the birth or survival of daughters have traditionally been prevented provides the context for identifying the contribution of new sex selection procedures to the maintenance of son preference in contemporary Chinese society. The paper concludes that China's son preference is not simply a personal problem for the millions of ‘missing girls’ who were destined to live a shorter life and for the surviving girls who continue to face considerable discrimination simply because they are of the ‘wrong’ sex; it heralds a social and demographic disaster of major proportions for which neither the government nor the people of China appear to have the will or the means to forestall. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unilateral Clean Development Mechanism – An approach for a least developed country?: The case of Yemen

Decision parameters prevailing in the market lead to a slim expression of interest of foreign investors for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in a bi- or multilateral design in Yemen. The Designated National Authority Secretariat in Yemen experiences the preference of Annex I entities of merely buying Certified Emission Reductions rather than investing in projects. Yemen's ability, like many least developed countries, to carry out unilateral CDM projects is moderate. Domestic project developers perceive difficulties in procuring underlying finance as key barrier in materializing CDM project activities in a unilateral design. The country remains trapped in a “catch 22 situation”. International assistance through low interest loans and capacity building for domestic financial institutions tailored to CDM project activities may trigger the market. Aggravation can be assisted by amending the policies of Annex I countries, in consequence to allocate a substantial share of their procurement activities to Certified Emission Reductions from least developed countries. Acquisition programmes may give preference to projects from host countries not traditionally represented in the pool of attractive CDM destinations.     

Recent advances in thin film composites membranes for brackish groundwater treatment with critical focus on Saskatchewan water sources

Drinking water scarcity is an ever-increasing global concern. This issue appears as a greater threat to the countries with no access to sea water resources or rivers, since their potential water resources are only limited to ground waters only. There are serious concerns with the treatment of ground water resources, including landfill leachates, agricultural contaminations (pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers), and rural contaminations. Membrane separation has been proved to be the governing technology in water and wastewater treatment plants, as these methods are responsible for more than half of the market share of the world's desalination capacity. This study intends to offer a holistic view of the groundwater contamination with specific focus on Saskatchewan province in Canada, and the recent efforts in the groundwater treatment using thin film composite membrane technology. This study begins with an introduction of the general aspects of ground water and membrane separation, polluting agents, and their sources. It is followed by a discussion of Saskatchewan's groundwater status and various issues. Furthermore, the recent research that became available since 2010 is reviewed in details and the results are summarized with respect to purification efficiency. Different affecting parameters in a groundwater-thin film composite system are synthesized and an in-depth overview is presented.     

Why do <Emphasis Type="Italic">Manduca sexta</Emphasis> feed from white flowers? Innate and learnt colour preferences in a hawkmoth

Flower colour is an important signal used by flowering plants to attract pollinators. Many anthophilous insects have an innate colour preference that is displayed during their first foraging bouts and which could help them locate their first nectar reward. Nevertheless, learning capabilities allow insects to switch their colour preferences with experience and thus, to track variation in floral nectar availability. Manduca sexta, a crepuscular hawkmoth widely studied as a model system for sensory physiology and behaviour, visits mostly white, night-blooming flowers lacking UV reflectance throughout its range in the Americas. Nevertheless, the spectral sensitivity of the feeding behaviour of naïve moths shows a narrow peak around 450 nm wavelengths, suggesting an innate preference for the colour blue. Under more natural conditions (i.e. broader wavelength reflectance) than in previous studies, we used dual choice experiments with blue- and white-coloured feeders to investigate the innate preference of naïve moths and trained different groups to each colour to evaluate their learning capabilities. We confirmed the innate preference of M. sexta for blue and found that these moths were able to switch colour preferences after training experience. These results unequivocally demonstrate that M. sexta moths innately prefer blue when presented against white flower models and offer novel experimental evidence supporting the hypothesis that learning capabilities could be involved in their foraging preferences, including their widely observed attraction to white flowers in nature.     

Women infected with parasite Toxoplasma have more sons

The boy-to-girl ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio) is around 0.51 in most populations. The sex ratio varies between societies and may be influenced by many factors, such as stress and immunosuppression, age, primiparity, the sex of the preceding siblings and the socioeconomic status of the parents. As parasite infection affects many immunological and physiological parameters of the host, we analyzed the effect of latent toxoplasmosis on sex ratios in humans. Clinical records of 1,803 infants born from 1996 to 2004 contained information regarding the mother’s age, concentration of anti-Toxoplasma antibodies, previous deliveries and abortions and the sex of the newborn. The results of our retrospective cohort study suggest that the presence of one of the most common parasites (with a worldwide prevalence from 20 to 80%), Toxoplasma gondii, can influence the secondary sex ratio in humans. Depending on the antibody concentration, the probability of the birth of a boy can increase up to a value of 0.72, C.I.₉₅ = (0.636, 0.805), which means that for every 260 boys born, 100 girls are born to women with the highest concentration of anti-Toxoplasma antibodies. The toxoplasmosis associated with immunosuppression or immunomodulation might be responsible for the enhanced survival of male embryos. In light of the high prevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in most countries, the impact of toxoplasmosis on the human population might be considerable.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

Side biases in humans (Homo sapiens): three ecological studies on hemispheric asymmetries

Hemispheric asymmetries and side biases have been studied in humans mostly in laboratory settings, and evidence obtained in naturalistic settings is scarce. We here report the results of three studies on human ear preference observed during social interactions in noisy environments, i.e., discotheques. In the first study, a spontaneous right-ear preference was observed during linguistic exchange between interacting individuals. This lateral bias was confirmed in a quasi-experimental study in which a confederate experimenter evoked an ear-orienting response in bystanders, under the pretext of approaching them with a whispered request. In the last study, subjects showed a greater proneness to meet an experimenter’s request when it was directly addressed to the right rather than the left ear. Our findings are in agreement both with laboratory studies on hemispheric lateralization for language and approach/avoidance behavior in humans and with animal research. The present work is one of the few studies demonstrating the natural expression of hemispheric asymmetries, showing their effect in everyday human behavior.     

长直链烷基苯的异常分布及其成因探讨

来自楚雄盆地三叠系地层的三个沥青样品长直链烷基苯在C16～C20范围内具强烈的偶碳优势。正构烷烃和烷基环己烷与烷基苯分布的差异表明:偶碳数烷基苯不可能来自直链脂肪酸,也不可能来自一些细菌和某些藻类生物体中的环己基脂肪酸,它可能是成岩作用阶段,在矿物催化作用下偶数碳醇与生物体中简单的芳烃化合物进行烷基化反应抑或是在深成作用早期,长链偶碳数伯醇通过自由基反应与存在于干酪根中苯进行烷基化作用而形成。烷基苯这一分布特征与热演化没有相关关系。     

Current Controversies in Prenatal Diagnosis 1: Should MRI be performed on all fetuses with mild ventriculomegaly?

A ventricular diameter of 10 mm correlates with more than two standard deviations of the normal and hence is qualified as ventriculomegaly. The relevance of this is dependent on whether there are associated infectious, genetic, or structural problems. The chance for neurodevelopmental delay in isolated ventriculomegaly less than 15 mm is 7.9% (4.7-11.1), and less if it is unilateral. It can be further divided in mild (10-12) or moderate (13-15), though this is not widely accepted. As part of the workup, structural assessment today may include ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging, or both. Discussants agreed that the diagnostic performance of both methods is as good as the expertise with which the images are acquired and interpreted. Discussants agreed that when the initial neurosonogram is normal, the likelihood of finding significant findings on MRI is low. Nevertheless, some anomalies may only be picked up or better worked out by fetal MRI. In utero follow-up is advocated, as progression may indicate a poorer outcome, and some conditions are only obvious late in pregnancy. Most benefit for future patients is expected from appropriate training in prenatal neuroimaging.     

Larval host plant origin modifies the adult oviposition preference of the female European grapevine moth <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lobesia botrana</Emphasis>

According to the 'natal habitat preference induction' (NHPI) hypothesis, phytophagous insect females should prefer to lay their eggs on the host species on which they developed as larvae. We tested whether this hypothesis applies to the breeding behaviour of polyphagous European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana, an important pest in European vineyards. We previously found that different grape cultivars affect several life history traits of the moth. Because the different cultivars of grapes are suspected to provide different plant quality, we tested the NHPI hypothesis by examining oviposition choice of L. botrana among three Vitis vinifera cultivars (Pinot, Chasselas and Chardonnay). In a choice situation, females of L. botrana that had never experienced grapes were able to discriminate between different grape cultivars and preferentially selected Pinot as an oviposition substrate. This 'naive' preference of oviposition could be modified by larval environment: Females raised on grapes as larvae preferred to lay eggs on the cultivar that they had experienced. Furthermore, experience of the host plant during adult emergence could be excluded because when pupae originating from our synthetic diet were exposed to grapes, the emerging adults did not show preference for the cultivar from which they emerged. The NHPI hypothesis that includes the two sub-hypothesis "Hopkins host selection principle" and "chemical legacy" may thus be relevant in this system.     

Fuzzy相似优先比鉴别海面溢油

建立了海南溢油鉴别的Ｆｕｚｚｙ相似优先比模式,提出了油种鉴别的Ｆｕｚｚｙ相似优先比置信水平λ↑－的模糊区概念。海面溢油鉴别主要受油种、实验误差和风化的影响。任丘原油风化１个月同其它１３种油可鉴别的Ｆｕｚｚｙ相似优先比置信水平的范围为０．００５８１９≤λ↑－≤０．０４６４１,大庆原油在海面上风化２８ｄ同其它５种油可鉴别的范围为０．１１０１≤λ↑－≤０．２５１０。海面溢油鉴别结果表明,本法较指纹谱图辨     

关于自然资源核算的研究进展与争议问题

十八届三中全会提出要探索编制自然资源资产负债表,对领导干部实行自然资源资产离任审计.自然资源核算是编制自然资源资产负债表的首要工作,为了促进生态文明建设,建立我国自然资源资产负债表制度,也需要对自然资源进行科学的核算.论文从核算项目分类,理论方法和实践应用三个方面综述了国内外自然资源核算的研究进展,力图厘清国内外自然资源核算研究的共识与争议问题.西方国家资源核算研究起步较早,在理论方法和实际应用方面已取得了丰富的成果.与之相比,我国的研究还主要集中在理论分析层面,自然资源的核算方法多是沿用国外的估价模型,缺乏创新.目前,国内外普遍按照先实物量再价值量,先存量再流量,先分类再综合的原则进行自然资源核算研究.但是,各国的核心项目分类尚未统一,自然资源估价方法的选择还存在争议.在实践方面,联合国等五大机构联合发布的SEEA受到世界各国的广泛追捧,很多国家开始在此基础上探索本国的资源核算体系.通过比较分析国内外的研究进展和共识问题,论文提出了我国自然资源资产负债表编制需要解决的问题,包括确定核算项目,选择估价方法,分步推进自然资源核算和自然资源核算与自然资源资产负债表的衔接.这些问题的解决思路主要从四个方面展开:选择可控或拥有的,产权明晰的自然资源作为核算项目,充分考虑资源要素的经济,生态和社会价值选择估价方法,优先建立单项资源的区域自然资源核算体系,结合各方力量设计我国统一的自然资源核算标准.根据上述思路,开展自然资源核算研究,将资源环境核算纳入国民经济核算,构建自然资源核算框架体系,是编制我国自然资源资产负债表的一项重要内容,对顺利开展生态文明建设具有重要意义.     

国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

外商投资与国际贸易对中国沿海地区资源环境的影响

论文从定性描述和定量描述的角度,分别对外商投资和国际贸易对沿海地区的资源环境影响进行分析。通过研究发现,尽管在产值总量上,外商投资和国际贸易对沿海地区的资源压力和环境污染做出“贡献”,但是从弹性系数角度,外商投资和国际贸易对地区资源压力和环境污染的影响在逐渐减缓,表明外商投资和国际贸易并不是导致我国沿海地区资源环境压力加大的“罪魁祸首”,反而是减缓这种压力的主要贡献力量。但是,不可否认,在我国接受经济全球化影响的早期阶段,由于部分地区急于吸引外资,以及我国环境管理体系的不完善,的确在某些方面,外资和外贸对沿海地区的资源和环境造成了负面影响。     

The carbon sequestration potential of tree crop plantations

Carbon (C) conservation and sequestration in many developing countries needs to be accompanied by socio-economic improvements. Tree crop plantations can be a potential path for coupling climate change mitigation and economic development by providing C sequestration and supplying wood and non-wood products to meet domestic and international market requirements at the same time. Financial compensation for such plantations could potentially be covered by the Clean Development Mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Kyoto Protocol, but its suitability has also been suggested for integration into REDD?+?(reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and enhancement of forest C stocks) currently being negotiated under the United Nations FCCC. We assess the aboveground C sequestration potential of four major plantation crops – cocoa (Theobroma cacao), oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), and orange (Citrus sinesis) – cultivated in the tropics. Measurements were conducted in Ghana and allometric equations were applied to estimate biomass. The largest C potential was found in the rubber plantations (214 tC/ha). Cocoa (65 tC/ha) and orange (76 tC/ha) plantations have a much lower C content, and oil palm (45 tC/ha) has the lowest C potential, assuming that the yield is not used as biofuel. There is considerable C sequestration potential in plantations if they are established on land with modest C content such as degraded forest or agricultural land, and not on land with old-growth forest. We also show that simple C assessment methods can give reliable results, which makes it easier for developing countries to partake in REDD?+ or other payment schemes.     

Survival of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus in Pork Products

There is a risk of virus transmission through contaminated pork, and many viruses are considered potential hazards for both humans and livestock. The risk of transmission may be elevated with importation/exportation of meat between countries globally. Survival of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in different pork products has not been studied. The present study evaluated PRRSV survival in four different products: fresh sausage, ham, bacon, and acidified sausage prepared with experimentally contaminated pork. These products were prepared according to standard methods used by the manufacturers of pork products, and then stored at room temperature, 4 °C and ?20 °C. PRRSV was detected only in fresh sausage for up to 15 days at 4 °C and for 30 days at ?20 °C. No PRRSV was detected at any temperature in any of the other three products. These preliminary data provide valuable information for the pork processing industry, as well as in planning for import/export of these products among different countries.     

Wood products: potential carbon sequestration and impact on net carbon emissions of industrialized countries

Carbon stocks in the wood products pool are considered to be increasing globally. Simplified methods for estimating the fate of carbon in wood products need to be prepared to allow estimation at the national level. Since current methods cause some problems when dealing with specific countries, we try to improve the current methods. We discuss the potential carbon sequestration in wood products and the impacts of three accounting approaches (IPCC default, stock-change and atmospheric-flow) on net carbon emissions of 16 industrialized countries. We draw the following conclusions: (1) we improved the current methods for estimating the fate of carbon by considering the recycling of paper and the use of other fiber pulp, but further improvement need to be made; (2) the annual carbon sequestrations in wood products during 1990–1999 correspond to a few to 10% of 1990 base-year emissions from fossil fuels and cement production, depending on country and year. For the analyzed countries as a whole, the annual carbon sequestration was around 2%; (3) the impact of the accounting approaches on net carbon emissions at the national level is significant. Therefore, policy implications must be carefully considered when one of these approaches is adopted.