MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.     

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P<0.0001) and from each other (P=0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.     

Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

Down's syndrome screening in multiple pregnancies using alpha-fetoprotein and free beta hCG

Second-trimester distributions of the free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels in 420 twin and 19 triplet pregnancies were measured and compared with the distributions in 6661 singleton pregnancies. On average, the levels of both analytes were twice as high in twins and over three times as high in triplets. Eight sets of twins discordant for Down's syndrome showed elevated levels of free beta hCG and reduced levels of AFP after correction of the multiple of the median for the presence of a twin pregnancy. Screening for Down's syndrome using the twin correction of the multiple of the median is expected to achieve a 51 per cent detection rate at a 5 per cent false-positive rate using these two markers.     

Crown—rump length in aneuploid fetuses: Implications for first-trimester biochemical screening for aneuploidies

This study examined the effect of estimation of gestational age from the menstrual history compared with that from crown—rump length (CRL) measurement on the detection rate of screening for aneuploidies in the first trimester. Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) was assayed in blood collected prior to chorionic villus sampling in 356 women with unaffected pregnancies and 28 women with an aneuploid pregnancy. There were 14 Down's syndrome (DS) pregnancies. All pregnancies were dated from menstrual history and CRL measurement. The average CRL gestation in the aneuploid population was 2.5 days less than that derived from the LMP (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) for LMP—CRL gestation: using the algorithm based on unaffected pregnancies 0–3.5 days; using the matched case—control approach 1–4.5 days). The average CRL gestation in the DS population was 2 days less but this did not reach statistical significance (95 per cent CI for LMP—CRL gestation: using the algorithm — 1 to 4.5 days; using the matched case—control approach 0 to 5.5 days). The detection rate of aneuploidies in the first trimester using maternal serum PAPP-A was reduced by 7 per cent (and by 3 per cent for DS) for a 5 per cent false-positive rate when using CRL rather than LMP to date the pregnancy. This phenomenon is a consequence of an apparent reduction of gestational age when estimated by CRL in the aneuploid population. Further studies are required to evaluate whether CRL is an unbiased estimate of gestation for Down's syndrome pregnancies.     

Combining nuchal translucency and serum markers in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies

A method is described to combine the ultrasound marker nuchal translucency (NT) with serum markers so that they can be used together in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies. For monochorionic twin pregnancies (taken as monozygous), the two fetus-specific NT measurements are averaged before risk is calculated and before the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. For dichorionic twin pregnancies (taken as dizygous), the risk for each fetus based on the individual NT measurements is calculated, the two fetus-specific risks are added together, and then the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. In this way, all the screening markers can be used in combination to produce a pregnancy-specific ‘pseudo-risk’, rather than a fetus-specific pseudo-risk. We refer to pseudo-risk because in the absence of sufficient data on the screening markers in affected twin pregnancies, a true risk estimate cannot be calculated. Tentative estimates are given of screening performance in twins using NT, the combined test (NT with first-trimester serum markers), and the integrated test (NT with first- and second-trimester serum markers), all interpreted with maternal age. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free β-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.     

Screening for Down's syndrome in older women based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and age: Preliminary results

We report the results of screening for Down's syndrome (DS) in older women using published rate schedules based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and age. Five hundred and seventeen patients aged 35 years and older, who were referred for a mid-trimester genetic amniocentesis, were first tested for MSAFP and then underwent an amniocentesis. Individual risks for DS, combining MSAFP and age, were derived using three different published rate schedules. Theoretical selection for amniocentesis was made using the cut-off level of the average collective risk for a 35-year-old woman (1:380 at live birth or 1:270 at amniocentesis). Six affected pregnancies (five with DS and one with trisomy 18), which were diagnosed prenatally, were all found to be at a higher risk than the specified cut-off. These cases would have been diagnosed in any event, using any of the published rate schedules. According to these rate schedules, between 39 and 45 per cent of the patients would be in the lower risk group and therefore would have been counselled not to undergo amniocentesis. Further studies should be conducted in order to reach conclusive screening policies for DS in older women.     

The first trimester ‘combined test’ for the detection of Down syndrome pregnancies in 4939 unselected pregnancies

The high detection rate (DR) for Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies which can be achieved by measuring fetal nuchal translucency (NT) early in pregnancy can be improved by combining it with placental hormones [pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (fβ-hCG)] and maternal age (‘combined test’). In this study we wanted to assess the DR using the ‘combined test’ in an unselected population of self-referred pregnant women at a false-positive rate (FPR) of about 5%. NT, PAPP-A, fβ-hCG and maternal age were measured in all women with singleton pregnancies who booked for delivery in our hospital from 1 December 1997 to 31 April 2000 and who were between 10 and 13 completed weeks of gestation [crown–rump length (CRL) 35–70 mm]. The specific DS risk was calculated using the computer program Alpha Version 5aa (Logical Medical Systems, London, UK). A total of 4939 women were tested. Out of 14 DS pregnancies that occurred during this period of time, 12 were detected with the test. A total of 246 women had a false-positive test result in a non-DS pregnancy (FPR 5.0%). This makes the ‘combined test’ by far the best test for the detection of DS pregnancies in a low-risk population. The constant increase in maternal age at the time of delivery can also lead to an improved DR if a simple age-dependant protocol for DS detection is used, but only at the price of a much higher number of amniocenteses and subsequent abortions. The DR for DS can be increased much more markedly using the ‘combined test’ with a FPR that still remains at the level as it was in the early 1970s. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An increase in cost-effectiveness of first trimester maternal screening programmes for fetal chromosome anomalies is obtained by contingent testing

We assessed the discriminatory efficiency and cost-effectiveness of a novel way of organising first trimester screening for Down syndrome (DS), contingent testing, where a serological test (PAPP-A and β-hCG: the double test) is made in early first trimester and followed by nuchal translucency testing (NT) only in women with an intermediate risk, e.g. <1:65 and >1:1000, and not in all women as in normal first trimester screening (NFTS). Using Monte Carlo simulation contingent testing had a detection rate (DR) of 78.9% and a false-positive rate (FPR) of 4.0% for DS with 19.4% of women offered NT testing. The DR of NFTS was 85.5% and the FPR 4.4%. The decrease in NT screening was associated with an increase from 23% to 29% in the proportion of DS cases born. The cost of the contingent testing programme was £53 000 per DS case not born and £91 000 in NFTS. The number of aborted fetuses per DS case were 0.35 and 0.36, respectively. Thus, contingent testing is an organisation of first trimester screening where costs can be reduced with a marginal decrease in performance. Contingent testing is attractive in areas where NT screening is the bottleneck preventing the introduction of first trimester screening. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maternal serum free α-human chorionic gonadotrophin levels in twin pregnancies: Implications for screening for Down's syndrome

Maternal serum free α-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free α-hCG) levels were determined in twin and singleton pregnancies at 15–22 weeks of gestation using a set of stored serum samples relating to 200 twin pregnancies and 600 singleton control pregnancies matched for gestational age and duration of storage. Free α-hCG values are, on average, 1·66 times greater in twin pregnancies than in singleton pregnancies (95 per cent confidence interval 1·56–1·76). If maternal serum free α-hCG is used in screening for Down's syndrome, values in twin pregnancies can be adjusted using this result so that screening can be performed in twin pregnancies as well as in singleton pregnancies.     

Increased risk of abortion after genetic amniocentesis in twin pregnancies

Forty-seven twin pregnancies among 3676 patients who had a genetic amniocentesis between 1973 and 1979, are reported. The detection rate of twins at the time of amniocentesis was 62 per cent. Five (17 per cent) of the 29 women with detected twin pregnancy aborted spontaneously, these are compared with 1 (6 per cent) of 18 women with undetected twin pregnancies and with 3 (3 per cent) of 93 singleton pregnancies, selected as controls as they had amniocentesis performed immediately before and after each of the twin mothers. Two of 9 (22 per cent) twin pregnancies, who had at least two punctures in at least one sac aborted, while 3 of 20 twin pregnancies with one puncture in each sac aborted (15 per cent). One of 18 (6 per cent) twin pregnancies, where only one sac was punctured, because the twin pregnancies were undetected, aborted. Amniocentesis of both sacs in twin pregnancies seems associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion. The indications for amniocentesis in twin pregnancies should be critically evaluated.     

First trimester screening for Down syndrome and assisted reproduction: no basis for concern

In pregnancies obtained after assisted reproduction the false-positive rate of second trimester Down syndrome (DS) screening is increased by 1.5–3-fold. This may cause an increase in the number of amniocenteses and the fetal loss rate. The present study for the first time examined whether assisted reproductive technologies affect the results of first trimester screening. The markers PAPP-A, free β-hCG and the nuchal translucency (NT) thickness were examined at 12–14 weeks' gestation. Screening markers in 47 in vitro fertilisation (IVF), 63 ovulation induction (OI) and 3026 spontaneously conceived singleton pregnancies were compared. The MoM (multiples of the median) value in the IVF pregnancies was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.85–1.22) for PAPP-A, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.95–1.37) for β-hCG and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.89–1.05) for NT; the MoM value in the OI pregnancies was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.76–1.05) for PAPP-A, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.93–1.25) for β-hCG and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95–1.11) for NT. The first trimester marker values in assisted reproductive pregnancies and spontaneously conceived pregnancies were not significantly different. Estimated false-positive rates for a risk cut-off of 1:400 varied from 4.7% in IVF pregnancies to 5.1% in OI pregnancies. Therefore the false-positive rate in Down syndrome screening should be independent of the method of conception. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Expanding multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome to include Edward'S syndrome

Information on maternal age and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels was used to investigate retrospectively the effect of estimating Edward's syndrome risk in women having multi-marker screening for Down's syndrome. The screened population comprised 15 pregnancies affected by Edward's syndrome, 15 with Down's syndrome and 5472 unaffected pregnancies. The use of all three markers to estimate Edward's syndrome risk would have led to the detection of 10–12 (67–80 per cent) cases with a false-positive rate of 0.3–0.6 per cent depending on the risk cut-off. A further case would have been detected as a result of screening for Down's syndrome alone. Similar results were obtained when the Edward's syndrome risk was based on uE₃ and hCG only. These data suggest that extending Down's syndrome screening to include Edward's syndrome risk will yield a high detection rate with only a small increase in the false-positive rate.     

First-trimester maternal serum schwangerschafts protein 1 (SP1) in pregnancies associated with chromosomal anomalies

The relationship between first-trimester maternal serum Schwangerschafts protein 1 (SP1) and the karyotype of the pregnancy was examined in 692 women who underwent chorionic villus biopsy at 6–12 weeks. There were 30 pregnancies with abnormal karyotypes, consisting of 14 Down's syndrome (DS), eight trisomy 18, and eight other anomalies, two of which were mosaics. The normal ranges and medians for gestation were defined from the 662 cases in which the karyotype was normal. The median SP1 (0·5 MOM) of the abnormal group was significantly lower than that of the normal group (10 MOM). This relationship was maintained for the DS pregnancies (0·4 MOM) and for anomalies other than trisomy 18 (0·43 MOM) but not trisomy 18 (1·1 MOM). It is possible that the use of SP1 as a screening test for chromosome anomalies in the first trimester could have a 43 per cent detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate.     

Prenatal screening for chromosome abnormalities using maternal serum chorionic gonadotrophin,alpha-fetoprotein,and age

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels were assayed retrospectively in stored maternal serum samples from 78 chromosomally abnormal pregnancies and 410 controls matched for gestation and maternal age. The median serum hCG concentration in 49 pregnancies with Down's syndrome was significantly elevated, at 2.18 multiples of the normal median. Significantly reduced hCG concentrations were found in a group of four trisomy 18 pregnancies (all less than 0.4 multiples of the median). Eight cases of unbalanced chromosome rearrangements appeared to show some lowering of hCG levels, while there was no significant difference in the levels in the cases of trisomy 13, balanced translocations, and sex chromosome abnormalities. Maternal serum hCG alone is a better indicator of Down's syndrome pregnancies than maternal age or maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), either individually or in combination, and provides a further virtually independent measure of risk. On the basis of our findings, screening for Down's syndrome using hCG and AFP results combined with maternal age risks is predicted to result in a higher detection rate (57 per cent) for a lower false-positive rate (5.0 per cent) than would be attainable by combined AFP and age screening (37 per cent detection at a 6.6 per cent false-positive rate).     

Screening for trisomy 21 in twin pregnancies in the first trimester: does chorionicity impact on maternal serum free β-hCG or PAPP-A levels?

In a study of 180 twin pregnancies I have examined the distribution of maternal serum free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), in addition to fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), in twins classified as monochorionic or dichorionic, based on ultrasound appearance at 10–14 weeks of gestation. In 45 monochorionic and 135 dichorionic twin pregnancies the median MoM free β-hCG was not significantly different (1.00 vs 1.01), whilst that for PAPP-A was lower (0.89 vs 1.01) but again with no statistical significance. Previous reports of an increased fetal NT in monochorionic twins pregnancies could not be confirmed (1.03 vs 1.00). It is concluded that the existing pseudo risk twin correction algorithm is appropriate for both monochorionic and dichorionic twins in providing accurate first trimester risks for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cystic fibrosis: selecting the prenatal screening strategy of choice

Cystic fibrosis is a serious disorder. Research into the treatment of affected individuals is in progress, but a cure is not expected in the near future. In this review, we demonstrate that prenatal screening for cystic fibrosis meets the requirements for a worthwhile screening programme. We explain the reasons that have led us to conclude that one approach (‘couple screening’) is the method of choice. The couple-based approach calls for reporting results to the couple as a unit. Only if both parents are found to be carriers is the result designated screen-positive and an amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling offered. This offers a substantial reduction in the proportion of women with unaffected pregnancies with positive results (the false-positive rate) compared with other methods without reducing the detection of affected pregnancies. It also avoids creating a screen-positive group for which no definitive diagnosis is available. This is a problem with other screening methods. The couple method can achieve a 72% detection rate for a 0.1% false-positive rate. The screening method is simple, non-invasive, reliable, safe and reasonably cost effective. Existing programmes have shown that screening using this method is acceptable to health care professionals and patients. Setting up a national prenatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis is timely and should be implemented using the couple screening method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The value of early third-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein determination

The value of determination of maternal serum of alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) concentration in i he second trimester is well established. In addition to open neural tube defects, pregnancies associated with elevated second-trimester MSAFP have been shown to be at increased risk for a variety of problems, including low birth weight, preterm delivery, and pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH). We evaluated the potential usefulness of MSAFP in the early third trimester. MSAFP concentration was determined in over 200 women at the time of glucose screening. Results were analysed with regard to gestational age at sampling, maternal weight, race, diabetes, and presence of twins. MSAFP was twice as high in twin gestation, but not affected by race or the presence of diabetes. In contrast to levels in early gestation, third-trimester MSAFP does not appear to be predictive of preterm delivery, low birth weight, or PIH.     

Prenatal screening and diagnosis of neural tube defects in England and Wales in 1985

A survey was carried out to determine the effect of prenatal screening and therapeutic abortion on births in 1985 with anencephaly and spina bifida in England and Wales. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein tests were done on 399 288 women (60 per cent of pregnant women): 4 per cent were reported as being screen-positive and 1 per cent had an amniocentesis. An estimated 534 pregnancies associated with anencephaly were terminated and an estimated 445 pregnancies associated with spina bifida (but without anencephaly) were terminated. Most (63 per cent) of the anencephalic pregnancies were first suspected from an ultrasound examination; 57 per cent of the spina bifida pregnancies were first suspected from a positive maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein test, 35 per cent by ultrasound, and the remaining 8 per cent by other means. The birth prevalence of anencephaly declined by 94 per cent between 1964–1972 and 1985, but when the terminations of pregnancy on account of having a fetus with anencephaly are added to the births the decline in prevalence was only 50 per cent. The birth prevalence of spina bifida declined by 68 per cent over the same period but when the terminations were added to the births the decline in prevalence was only 32 per cent. Among births with anencephaly 66 per cent had had no screening or diagnostic tests in early pregnancy, but in those that did nearly all were positive–usually in twin pregnancies where one fetus was affected but not the other. Among births with spina bifida, 48 per cent had no tests and in those that did the results were mainly negative. We conclude that in order to monitor adequately the national screening programme for anencephaly and spina bifida a special neural tube defects register should be formed.