城市水资源供需经济分析与对策

本文通过对水价与需求关系的探讨,推导出水价与需求的理想公式,并就该公式进行了分析,提出了解决城市水资源供需矛盾的经济对策。     

Economic and policy instrument analyses in support of the scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan

Understanding the cost-effectiveness and the role of economic and policy instruments, such as the combined product tax-recycling subsidy scheme or a tradable permit, for scrap tire recycling has been of crucial importance in a market-oriented environmental management system. Promoting product (tire) stewardship on one hand and improving incentive-based recycling policy on the other hand requires a comprehensive analysis of the interfaces and interactions in the nexus of economic impacts, environmental management, environmental valuation, and cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents an assessment of the interfaces and interactions between the implementation of policy instruments and its associated economic evaluation for sustaining a scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan during the era of the strong economic growth of the late 1990s. It begins with an introduction of the management of the co-evolution between technology metrics of scrap tire recycling and organizational changes for meeting the managerial goals island-wide during the 1990s. The database collected and used for such analysis covers 17 major tire recycling firms and 10 major tire manufacturers at that time. With estimates of scrap tire generation and possible scale of subsidy with respect to differing tire recycling technologies applied, economic analysis eventually leads to identify the associated levels of product tax with respect to various sizes of new tires. It particularly demonstrates a broad perspective of how an integrated econometric and engineering economic analysis can be conducted to assist in implementing policy instruments for scrap tire management. Research findings indicate that different subsidy settings for collection, processing, and end use of scrap tires should be configured to ameliorate the overall managerial effectiveness. Removing the existing boundaries between designated service districts could strengthen the competitiveness of scrap tires recycling industry, helping to reduce the required levels of product tax and subsidy. With such initial breakthroughs at hand to handle the complexity of scrap tire recycling technologies, there remains unique management and policy avenues left to explore if a multi-dimensional solution is to be successful in the long run.     

Assessing Biological Integrity Using Freshwater Fish and Decapod Habitat Selection Functions

Comparison between the number of taxa observed and the number expected in the absence of human impact is an easily understood and ecologically meaningful measure of biological integrity. This approach has been successfully applied to the assessment of the biological quality of flowing water sites using macroinvertebrates with the river invertebrate and classification system (RIVPACS) and its derivatives. In this paper, we develop a method similar to the RIVPACS predictive model approach to assess biological integrity at flowing-water sites using freshwater fish and decapod assemblages. We extend the RIVPACS approach by avoiding the biotic classification step and model each of the individual species separately. These assemblages were sampled at 118 least impacted (reference) sites in the Auckland region, New Zealand. Individual discriminant models based on the presence or absence of the 12 most common fish and decapod species were developed. Using the models, predictions were made using environmental measures at new sites to yield the probability of the capture of each of the 12 species, and these were combined to predict the assemblage expected at sites. The expected assemblage was compared to that observed using an observed over expected ratio (O/E). The models were evaluated using a number of internal tests including jackknifing, data partitioning, and the degree to which O/E values differed between reference sites and a set of sites perceived to be impaired by human impacts.     

张家界旅游商品市场供需分析及其对策——基于1100份游客问卷调查

我国拥有丰富的自然和文化旅游资源,旅游产业发展迅速,但旅游购物却是旅游产业链中的“短腿”,旅游商品收入占旅游总收入的比重长期徘徊在20％左右,低于国际平均水平30％,比旅游业发达国家低20％-40％。且我国旅游商品辗转于“零团费”与“纯玩团”的困局,其前景堪忧。从游客对旅游商品需求调查人手,以张家界为样本,分析旅游商品供需中存在的主要问题及症结所在,以探求促进旅游商品产业发展的对策措施。     

The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index: An Integrated Assessment Tool for Community Resilience and Vulnerability with Respect to Freshwater

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.     

《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的投融资需求及影响评估

当前我国大气污染形势严峻,严重损害人民群众身体健康,影响社会和谐稳定。为切实改善空气质量,国务院于2013年9月印发了《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称《行动计划》)。本研究测算了实施该行动计划所需投入资金,并定量评估了可能给中国带来的社会、经济、健康等影响。结果表明,《大气污染防治行动计划》直接投资共计需要资金约1.84万亿元,其中优化能源结构、移动源污染防治、工业企业污染治理、面源污染治理的投资需求约分别为2844亿元、14 067.66亿元、915.44亿元和615.72亿元;2017年全国因实施《大气污染防治行动计划》而减少的慢性死亡人数平均约为11.06万人,占人口总数的0.15‰,各地损失寿命年限均有所下降,即寿命有延长趋势;带来的社会经济影响为正效应,在2013—2017年,计划的实施将拉动我国GDP增长约20 403.01亿元,增加就业岗位约291.13万个。本研究对政策评估研究及未来大气污染治理发展方向具有重要参考价值。     

Economic and financial analysis on rainwater harvesting for agricultural irrigation in the rural areas of Beijing

Since 2006, around 600 rainwater harvesting systems have been constructed for agricultural irrigation in Beijing. The financial and economic implications of using these systems are discussed less. It is important to understand the effectiveness of the investments spent on the rainwater harvesting systems. The paper aims to analyze economic and financial performance of the constructed rainwater harvesting systems in rural areas of Beijing through the method of cost benefit analysis. The economic analysis focuses on determining the contribution of rainwater harvesting systems to the development of society, carried out from the point of view of government. The financial analysis allows comparison of the financial implications of using groundwater with using rainwater for agricultural irrigation from the point of view of individual participant, namely the local farmers. The results show that the rainwater harvesting systems are economically feasible. This means rainwater harvesting have positive effects for society. However, the financial feasibility of rainwater harvesting systems depends on the charge for groundwater and on the size of the rainwater harvesting systems. If groundwater is not charged, the rainwater harvesting systems are not financially feasible. If groundwater is charged at 2 Yuan/m³, only large size systems are financially feasible while small and middle sizes systems are not financially feasible. Under these circumstances, only large systems can run smoothly, while farmers may not use the small and medium-size systems.     

Securing water for people, crops, and ecosystems: New mindset and new priorities

A fundamentally new approach to water and human development will be needed during this new century if we are to secure sufficient freshwater to meet the needs of some 9 billion people while at the same time protecting the critical ecosystem services upon which the human economy depends. Signs of unsustainable water use — including falling water tables, shrinking lakes, and the drying up of rivers and streams — are widespread and spreading. In many regions, greater modification and appropriation of freshwater systems for human purposes will yield greater costs than benefits and create the risk of irreversible losses of species and ecosystem services. A new mindset is needed to guide water use and management in this new century, one that views the human water economy as a subset of nature's water economy. Living within nature's limits will require that societies satisfy the basic needs of people and ecosystems before non-essential water demands are met. It will require on the order of a doubling of water productivity. And it will require stronger institutions to encourage equitable sharing of water to alleviate tensions within and between countries.     

Intelligent Databases Assist Transparent and Sound Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Assessment and economic valuation of services provided by ecosystems to humans has become a crucial phase in environmental management and policy-making. As primary valuation studies are out of the reach of many institutions, secondary valuation or benefit transfer, where the results of previous studies are transferred to the geographical, environmental, social, and economic context of interest, is becoming increasingly common. This has brought to light the importance of environmental valuation databases, which provide reliable valuation data to inform secondary valuation with enough detail to enable the transfer of values across contexts. This paper describes the role of next-generation, intelligent databases (IDBs) in assisting the activity of valuation. Such databases employ artificial intelligence to inform the transfer of values across contexts, enforcing comparability of values and allowing users to generate custom valuation portfolios that synthesize previous studies and provide aggregated value estimates to use as a base for secondary valuation. After a general introduction, we introduce the Ecosystem Services Database, the first IDB for environmental valuation to be made available to the public, describe its functionalities and the lessons learned from its usage, and outline the remaining needs and expected future developments in the field.     

城市居民旅游需求差异影响因素的灰色关联分析

对旅游资源和旅游市场的开发设计，必须要以影响旅游需求的因素分析作为科学依据。从出游率和旅游人均花费两方面对我国39个主要城市的居民旅游需求进行差异分析。在此基础上，利用灰色关联分析方法分析了城市居民旅游需求差异的主要影响因素。分析结果表明，城市居民旅游需求差异与城市居民的生活水平、人口数量、交通运输状况是密切相关的，其中居民消费水平是影响城市居民旅游需求差异的主导因素。     

An Ecological and Economic Assessment Methodology for Coastal Ecosystem Management

An adaptation of the Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response methodology is presented in this work. The differential DPSIR (ΔDPSIR) was developed to evaluate impacts on the coastal environment and as a tool for integrated ecosystem management. The aim of the ΔDPSIR is to provide scientifically-based information required by managers and decision-makers to evaluate previously adopted policies, as well as future response scenarios. The innovation of the present approach is to provide an explicit link between ecological and economic information related to the use and management of a coastal ecosystem within a specific timeframe. The application of ΔDPSIR is illustrated through an analysis of developments in a Southwest European coastal lagoon between 1985 and 1995. The value of economic activities dependent on the lagoon suffered a significant reduction (ca. −60%) over that period, mainly due to a decrease in bivalve production. During that decade the pressures from the catchment area were managed (ca. 176 million Euros), mainly through the building of waste water treatment plants. Notwithstanding this, the ecosystem state worsened with respect to abnormal clam mortalities due to a parasite infection and to benthic eutrophication symptoms in specific problematic areas. The negative economic impacts during the decade were estimated between −565 and −315 million Euros, of which 9–49% represent the cost of environmental externalities. Evaluation of these past events indicates that future management actions should focus on reducing the limitation on local clam seeds, which should result in positive impacts to both the local socio-economy and biodiversity.     

Toward an Integrated Classification of Ecosystems: Defining Opportunities for Managing Fish and Forest Health

/ Many of the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest United States have been simplified and degraded in part through past land-management activities. Recent listings of fishes under the Endangered Species Act and major new initiatives for the restoration of forest health have precipitated contentious debate among managers and conservation interests in the region. Because aggressive management activities proposed for forest restoration may directly affect watershed processes and functions, the goals of aquatic and terrestrial conservation and restoration are generally viewed as in conflict. The inextricable links in ecological processes and functions, however, suggest the two perspectives should really represent elements of the same problem; that of conserving and restoring more functional landscapes. We used recent information on the status and distribution of forest and fish communities to classify river subbasins across the region and explore the potential conflict and opportunity for a more integrated view of management. Our classification indicated that there are often common trends in terrestrial and aquatic communities that highlight areas of potential convergence in management goals. Regions where patterns diverge may emphasize the need for particular care and investment in detailed risk analyses. Our spatially explicit classification of subbasin conditions provides a mechanism for progress in three areas that we think is necessary for a more integrated approach to management: (1) communication among disciplines; (2) effective prioritization of limited conservation and restoration resources; and (3) a framework for experimentation and demonstration of commitment and untested restoration techniques.     

成都市基地蔬菜品种结构、供求指数及上市期气候分析

根据成都市1991～2000年基地蔬菜历年上市量与同期气象资料进行统计分析表明,如人均日占有量250g,全年供应均衡;如人均日供应量400g,则全年缺菜13.3万t,其中3～4月、9～10月为淡季,且上市期主要集中在5～9月.本研究为成都市蔬菜品种、产业结构调整决策提供依据.     

Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region

Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the “Landschaft Davos”, an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.     

Economic planning for depressed regions in the United Kingdom

This paper attempts five tasks. First, it briefly traces the collapse of regional economic planning since the mid 1970s. Second, it re‐assesses the case for regional economic planning. Third it asks whether a statutory economic development role for local authorities is the way forward. Fourthly, it critically evaluates current practice in economic development in a depressed area using the Newcastle City region as an example. Finally the paper concludes by outlining the nature of the applied research necessary to underpin a more rational approach to regional economic development planning, referring to the example of the Regional Industrial Research Unit established in the University of Newcastle upon Tyne.     

塔里木盆地南缘和田地区生活用水地下水质分析

干旱区水资源短缺，生产用水、生态用水与人民群众的生活用水矛盾突出。针对和田地区农村改水的地下饮用水状况的分析和评价，结果表明，地下饮用水的色度、浑浊度以及砷、泵、镉、铬、铅、硝酸盐等超标率均为零。总硬度、Cl^-、SO4^2-及F^-等指标的超标率较高，而这些物质的存在对于水质的理化性状影响较大，并因此而引发人体健康教育改变。和田地区总体饮用I级水的人口数量多，但局部的超标水依然存在。应通过对区域自然地理状况和人文因素的系统研究和科学论证，加强水源保护，改进卫生条件和卫生观念，建立农村饮水监测网，加强系统监测、监督和管理，以保障人民群众安全的生活用水。     

Balancing Endangered Species and Ecosystems: A Case Study of Adaptive Management in Grand Canyon

/ Adaptive ecosystem management seeks to sustain ecosystems while extracting or using natural resources. The goal of endangered species management under the Endangered Species Act is limited to the protection and recovery of designated species, and the act takes precedence over other policies and regulations guiding ecosystem management. We present an example of conflict between endangered species and ecosystem management during the first planned flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon in 1996. We discuss the resolution of the conflict and the circumstances that allowed a solution to be reached. We recommend that adaptive management be implemented extensively and early in ecosystem management so that information and working relationships will be available to address conflicts as they arise. Though adaptive management is not a panacea, it offers the best opportunity for balanced solutions to competing management goals.     

Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.     

A Case Study of Ecosystem Services in Urban Planning in Finland: Benefits,Rights and Responsibilities

The concept of ecosystem services is entering the agenda of land-use planning and scientists optimistically expect it to inform planners and decision-makers about the benefits that ecosystems provide. While tools and methods have been developed for mapping and valuing ecosystem services, only little attention has been paid to the practical application of the approach or its institutional preconditions and implications. We empirically analysed two urban planning processes for building residential areas in the outskirts of growing population centres in Finland. Our analysis of documents and interviews with planners focused on the benefits provided by ecosystems as well as the associated rights and responsibilities. We found that the concept ‘ecosystem service’ was not used, yet various benefits were identified. The rights of different stakeholders to ecosystem services were not explicitly identified, but many ecosystem services were perceived as public goods and particularly access to recreation was highlighted as an important justification for green areas. The results show that while the ecosystem services approach introduces new insights to land-use planning, it is still not embedded in the current practices or institutions. Operationalizing ecosystem services requires institutional adaptation, case-specific tailoring of methods, and deliberation among practitioners and stakeholders.     

四川省河流生态环境需水量统计分析评估

本文介绍了标准流量法计算河流生态环境需水量的状况,针对四川省情况结合四川省水文资料,用当前广泛应用的各种标准流量法,对四川省河流生态环境需水量进行统计计算分析。其成果可以为有关部门和设计研究人员提供背景资料或决策依据。