Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.     

碳中和立法的国际经验与启示

为应对气候变化,实现《巴黎协定》,国际社会纷纷做出碳减排相关承诺,设立碳中和目标.多个国家和地区通过设立或修订气候变化法律,将碳中和目标明确为硬约束.中国实现碳达峰、碳中和愿景任务艰巨,通过梳理典型国家和地区碳中和相关立法,分析国际碳中和立法的要点,针对国内现状需求,提出适合中国制定应对气候变化法律的建议.     

Climate Change and Forest Communities: Prospects for Building Institutional Adaptive Capacity in the Congo Basin Forests

Tropical forests are vulnerable to climate-change representing a risk for indigenous peoples and forest-dependent communities. Mechanisms to conserve the forest, such as REDD+, could assist in the mitigation of climate change, reduce vulnerability, and enable people to adapt. Ninety-eight interviews were conducted in three countries containing the Congo Basin forest, Cameroon, CAR, and DRC, to investigate perceptions of decision-makers within, and responses of the institutions of the state, private sector, and civil society to the challenges of climate change. Results indicate that while decision-makers’ awareness of climate change is high, direct institutional action is at an early stage. Adaptive capacity is currently low, but it could be enhanced with further development of institutional linkages and increased coordination of multilevel responses across all institutions and with local people. It is important to build networks with forest-dependent stakeholders at the local level, who can contribute knowledge that will build overall institutional adaptive capacity.     

Climate change,risk perception,and protection motivation among high-altitude residents of the Mt. Everest region in Nepal

Mountain ecosystems are considered vulnerable to early impacts of climate change. Whether and how local residents of these areas perceive these changes, however, remain under-studied questions. By conducting a household survey in the Khumbu region of Nepal, this study assessed local residents’ experience-based perception of changes in climate trends and patterns, perceived risk, and attitudes towards climate issues. Multivariate cluster analysis based on residents’ climate change beliefs revealed three segments: “Cautious,” “Disengaged,” and “Alarmed.” A comparison of these segments along key psychosocial constructs of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) revealed significant inter-segment differences in residents’ perception of severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost associated with engaging in mitigating behavior. Results shed light on how residents of high elevation areas that are considered to be exposed to early impacts of climate change perceive the risk and intend to respond. These findings could also assist stakeholders working in other similar mountain ecosystems in understanding vulnerability and in working towards climate readiness.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Economics of a global strategy for reduction of carbon emissions

The evolution of natural systems that feed and sustain human populations, and indeed the evolution of modern society, has occurred in the context of a moderate and stable climate. Therefore, recent trends in climate change, most likely caused by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiative trace gases in the atmosphere, and the expected consequent global warming, are now a major concern. Carbon emissions from energy systems are considered one of the major contributors to climate change and are the focus of all studies on the prevention of climate changes and adaptation strategies. Two global energy scenarios (each with several options) are analysed in this paper: from a dynamic-as-usual concept to a more advanced concept with the goal of stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere (equivalent to about a 60% reduction of carbon emission compared with today's level). It is shown that the stabilisation approach will require dramatic changes in energy systems: the share of non-carbon fuels will increase to about three quarters of the total primary energy consumption, which will itself grow by a factor of two by the middle of the next century. Surprisingly, the implementation costs turn out to be approximately the same for all scenarios (taking into account possible errors in the cost appraisals for several decades ahead). However, the cost distributions between energy production and use are quite different. Globally, these costs are 3-4% of the GNP, but for developing countries the share of energy investments is, on average, about 7-8% of the GNP, which is cause for concern and will greatly hamper economic and social progress in the Third World. The introduction of energy taxes or carbon taxes in developed countries and the raising of 'global energy funds' could help developing countries to overcome these difficulties. It is supposed that such a policy would stimulate economic growth in developing countries and, as a feedback, overlap the GNP losses in developed countries. The paper attempts to evaluate an optimal strategy for reducing carbon emissions for the next couple of decades, when large uncertainties surround global warming, and to show ways of establishing 'no-regret' policy.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

Carbon dioxide mineralization process design and evaluation: concepts,case studies,and considerations

Numerous carbon dioxide mineralization (CM) processes have been proposed to overcome the slow rate of natural weathering of silicate minerals. Ten of these proposals are mentioned in this article. The proposals are described in terms of the four major areas relating to CM process design: pre-treatment, purification, carbonation, and reagent recycling operations. Any known specifics based on probable or representative operating and reaction conditions are listed, and basic analysis of the strengths and shortcomings associated with the individual process designs are given in this article. The processes typically employ physical or chemical pseudo-catalytic methods to enhance the rate of carbon dioxide mineralization; however, both methods have its own associated advantages and problems. To examine the feasibility of a CM process, three key aspects should be included in the evaluation criteria: energy use, operational considerations as well as product value and economics. Recommendations regarding the optimal level of emphasis and implementation of measures to control these aspects are given, and these will depend very much on the desired process objectives. Ultimately, a mix-and-match approach to process design might be required to provide viable and economic proposals for CM processes.     

Mapping adaptation opportunities and activities in an interactive atlas

The need for transparency is taking more prominence in international climate negotiations as developed countries pledge large sums of money to foster adaptation efforts in developing countries. Tools that provide accurate and up-to-date spatial information that can be easily used and vetted by local practitioners may provide effective and affordable ways to improve transparency. The Global Adaptation Atlas is such a tool, combining vetted, publicly available climate impact data with timely maps of on the ground adaptation projects to highlight confluences of effects of climate change with actions taken to address those effects. Here, we describe the structure and general functions of the Global Adaptation Atlas and explain how it may be utilized to track short-term investments in adaptation. Over longer time scales, it may also help gauge the effectiveness of specific adaptation investments as well as reveal how different climate impacts affect long-term investment in differing regions.     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO₂ emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO₂ emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.     

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.     

The relationship between carbon dioxide emission and crop and livestock production indexes: a dynamic common correlated effects approach

Rapid increase in carbon dioxide emission triggers climate change, while climate change poses a threat to food security. On the other hand, emission increase as a result of agricultural production continues. Considering this cycle, it is thought that examining the relationship between agricultural production and carbon dioxide emissions can help countries take emission-reducing measures and develop policies to ensure food safety. With this thought, a common correlated effect estimator was used in this study to explain the relationship between crop and livestock production index and carbon dioxide emission of 184 countries with the use of data for the period of 1998–2014. Countries were classified under four categories: low-income countries, lower middle–income countries, upper middle–income countries and high-income countries. According to DCCE test results, it was reported that a 1% increase in crop production index had effect on CO₂ emission only in lower middle–income countries. A 1% increase in livestock production index, on the other hand, was reported to increase CO₂ emission rates by 0.28, 0.49, and 0.39 in lower middle–income, upper middle–income, and high-income countries, respectively. When evaluated in general, it could be stated that livestock breeding has a higher effect on CO₂ emission in agricultural production. The findings of the present study revealed that countries need to improve agricultural production methods in ways to minimize the positive association between vegetative and livestock production in accordance with their level of development, to adopt more environment-friendly agricultural technologies and to endorse international environmental policies.

     

Quantifying flexibility in combating climate change: modelling the implications of flexibility mechanisms in the climate change negotiations

With the 'International Trading of Emission Allowances' (ITEA) model, we have analysed the flexibility mechanisms provided for in the Kyoto Protocol. Three main mechanisms of flexibility are analysed differentiation of initial commitments, multiple sources, and locational flexibility (trading). A differentiation of commitments could help the evolution of commitments, especially with a trading regime, which could create some income. Multiple sources give a large pool of cheaper abatement options from the non-CO₂ gases, and costs are reduced substantially. Finally, a trading regime would make available even more cheap abatement options, mainly in the economies in transition (EITs). This regime would provide income support for the EITs, helping them to speed up their transition. The combined mechanisms reduce dramatically the costs for the compliance with the protocol for the whole of Annex I; they fall to zero in some cases. Two other main findings deal with the EU and the EITs. Internal trading would ease the debate on the internal distribution of commitments within the EU under the bubble provision, reducing costs significantly. The allocations in the protocol for the EITs probably create a huge excess - 'hot air' - which could seriously harm the agreement if it is not dealt with. Excluding the hot air will increase costs for the quota importers, and it will also slightly reduce income for the relevant EITs, but this is offset by a rising price, which also benefits other EITs.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Links between food trade,climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden’s food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden’s grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the ‘Gravity’ model, to improve prediction of trade flows.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Forests under the Southern Cross: The forest environmental frontier in Australia and New Zealand

Australia and New Zealand share many historical and contemporary commonalities. These define five contemporary forest environmental frontiers—for First Nations peoples, between agriculture and forestry, in forest management, in urban and peri-urban environments, and in relation to climate change. In both countries, the First Nations frontier is expanding in scale and significance with those peoples’ rights to land and forests. Frontiers with agriculture and in forest management are longstanding but dynamic and as yet little realised in relation to the need for forest and landscape restoration. Both countries are highly urbanised, elevating the significance of the urban and peri-urban frontier, particularly in the context of climate change. In both countries, forests will be profoundly impacted by climate change and are central to mitigation and adaptation strategies. Experience within and intersections between the frontiers offer encouraging prospects for synergies and for learning between the two countries and more widely.