A Bayesian approach to probabilistic ecological risk assessment: risk comparison of nine toxic substances in Tokyo surface waters

Background, aim, and scope  

Quantitative risk comparison of toxic substances is necessary to decide which substances should be prioritized to achieve effective risk management. This study compared the ecological risk among nine major toxic substances (ammonia, bisphenol-A, chloroform, copper, hexavalent chromium, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc) in Tokyo surface waters by adopting an integrated risk analysis procedure using Bayesian statistics.     

Distribution and partitioning of depleted uranium (DU) in soils at weapons test ranges - investigations combining the BCR extraction scheme and isotopic analysis

Depleted uranium (DU) has become a soil contaminant of considerable concern in many combat zones and weapons-testing sites around the world, including locations in Europe, the Middle East and the USA, arising from its dispersion via the application of DU-bearing munitions. Once DU is released into the environment its mobility and bioavailability will, like that of other contaminants, largely depend on the type of associations it forms in soil and on the nature of the soil components to which it binds. In this study we used the BCR sequential extraction scheme to determine the partitioning of DU amongst soil fractions of texturally varying soils from locations affected by weapons-testing activities. Isotopic analyses (MC-ICP-MS and alpha-spectrometry) were performed to verify the presence of DU in whole soils and soil fractions and to determine any preferential partitioning of the contaminant. Results identified soil organic matter as being consistently the most important component in terms of DU retention, accounting for 30-100% of DU observed in the soils examined. However, at greater distances from known contamination points, DU was also found to be largely associated with the exchangeable fraction, suggesting that DU can be mobilised and transported by surface and near-surface water and does remain in an exchangeable (and thus potentially bioavailable) form in soils.     

Validation of an ecosystem modelling approach as a tool for ecological effect assessments

In ecotoxicology, derivation of a "safe" environmental concentration is usually achieved by the use of extrapolation factors or by statistical extrapolation from a set of single species toxicity data. These approaches ignore ecological interactions between species in the field. An ecology-based alternative to this pragmatic approach can be ecosystem modelling, which can account for ecological interactions. However, it is largely unexplored how well the predictions of these models quantitatively agree with large-scale experimental studies. Therefore, we evaluated the capacity of a flexible ecosystem model to predict population and ecosystem-level no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) of 7 organic toxicants. These NOECs were compared with population and ecosystem-NOECs observed in 11 micro- and mesocosm studies. For each of the latter studies, the model was customized to account for the specific ecological interactions within these systems and combined with appropriate single-species toxicity data from literature. Population-NOEC predictions were accurate, or at least protective, for 60, and 85% of all considered model populations, respectively. For all 11 studies, a protective ecosystem-NOEC could be derived, being accurate in 7 cases, and conservative in 4 cases. In general, it can be stated that this type of models can serve as an ecology-based alternative to current extrapolation techniques in EEAs and water quality standard setting.     

Opportunities for a probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the European Union

In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. A sense of uncertainty is tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this procedure leads to an assessment with an unknown degree of conservatism, it is advisable to deal quantitatively with uncertainties. This paper discusses the advantages and possibilities of a probabilistic risk assessment framework, illustrated with an example calculation. Furthermore, representatives of EU Member States and the chemical industry were interviewed to find out their views on applying uncertainty analysis to risk assessment of industrial chemicals.     

Uranium bioaccumulation and biological disorders induced in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after a depleted uranium waterborne exposure

Because of its toxicity and its ubiquity within aquatic compartments, uranium (U) represents a significant hazard to aquatic species such as fish. In a previous study, we investigated some biological responses in zebrafish either exposed to depleted or to enriched U (i.e., to different radiological activities). However, results required further experiments to better understand biological responses. Moreover, we failed to clearly demonstrate a significant relationship between biological effects and U radiological activity. We therefore chose to herein examine U bioaccumulation and induced effects in zebrafish according to a chemical dose-response approach. Results showed that U is highly bioconcentrated in fish, according to a time- and concentration-dependent model. Additionally, hepatic antioxidant defenses, red blood cells DNA integrity and brain acetylcholinesterase activity were found to be significantly altered. Generally, the higher the U concentration, the sooner and/or the greater the effect, suggesting a close relationship between accumulation and effect.     

Environmental impact assessment (EIA): Equilibrium fugacity calculations and worst case approach

A mathematical model UNITRISK which can be used for screening purposes and risk ranking was set up to calculate relative risk values of single chemicals and mixtures of chemicals towards single or mixtures of organisms via contamination of air, water, soil and food dose. The concentration values are calculated by applying the fugacity concept or a dose must be defined. The dose-response is assumed to be linear versus concentration and degradative processes are not considered which is the worst case. The assumption that equilibria between the environmental phases exist is simplifying the model and is also representing the worst case. A mean risk factor is calculated which is 1 if the endpoint values (LC₅₀, LD₅₀, ADI, etc.) are exceeded for the investigated organisms and man.     

Model comparison for risk assessment: a case study of contaminated groundwater

Many environmental multimedia risk assessment models have been developed and widely used along with increasing sophistication of the risk assessment method. Despite of the considerable improvement, uncertainty remains a primary threat to the credibility of and users' confidence in the model-based risk assessments. In particular, it has been indicated that scenario and model uncertainty may affect significantly the assessment outcome. Furthermore, the uncertainty resulting from choosing different models has been shown more important than that caused by parameter uncertainty. Based on the relationship between exposure pathways and estimated risk results, this study develops a screening procedure to compare the relative suitability between potential multimedia models, which would facilitate the reduction of uncertainty due to model selection. MEPAS, MMSOILS, and CalTOX models, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, are applied to a realistic groundwater-contaminated site to demonstrate the process. It is also shown that the identification of important parameters and exposure pathways, and implicitly, the subsequent design of uncertainty reduction and risk management measures, would be better-formed.     

Aquatic predicted no-effect concentration for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and probabilistic ecological risk assessment in Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea, China

Predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) is often used in ecological risk assessment to determine low-risk concentrations for chemicals. In the present study, native marine species were selected for toxicity testing. The PNECs for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), were derived from chronic and acute toxicity data with log-normal statistical methods. The achieved PNECs for Phe, Pyr, and BaP were 2.33, 1.09, and 0.011 μg/L, respectively. In Jinzhou Bay and the Shuangtaizi River Estuary of Liaodong Bay in the Bohai Sea, China, the surface water concentrations of the three PAHs were analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Based on two probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) methods, namely probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve, the potential risk of Phe, Pyr, and BaP in Jinzhou Bay and Shuangtaizi River Estuary was assessed. The same order of ecological risk (BaP > Phe > Pyr) was found by both models. Our study considered regional characteristics of marine biota during the calculation of PNECs, and the PERA methods provided probabilities of potential ecological risks of chemicals. Within the study area, further research on BaP is required due to its high potential ecological risk.     

The ChimERA project: coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013–2016), funded by Cefic’s Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address some of these concerns by developing and testing mechanistic fate and effect models, and coupling of these models into one integrated platform for risk assessment. This paper discusses the backdrop against which this project was initiated and lists its objectives and planned methodology.     

Effects of a herbicide-insecticide mixture in freshwater microcosms: risk assessment and ecological effect chain

Effects of chronic application of a mixture of the herbicide atrazine and the insecticide lindane were studied in indoor freshwater plankton-dominated microcosms. The macroinvertebrate community was seriously affected at all but the lowest treatment levels, the zooplankton community at the three highest treatment levels, with crustaceans, caddisflies and dipterans being the most sensitive groups. Increased abundance of the phytoplankton taxa Cyclotella sp. was found at the highest treatment level. Threshold levels for lindane, both at population and community level, corresponded well with those reported in the literature. Atrazine produced fewer effects than expected, probably due to decreased grazer stress on the algae as a result of the lindane application. The safety factors set by the Uniform Principles for individual compounds were also found to ensure protection against chronic exposure to a mixture of a herbicide and insecticide at community level, though not always at the population level.     

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.     

Improving ecological risk assessment by including bioavailability into species sensitivity distributions: an example for plants exposed to nickel in soil

The variability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) due to contaminant bioavailability in soil was explored by using nickel as metal of concern. SSDs of toxicity test results of Avena sativa L. originating from different soils and expressed as total content and available (0.01 M CaCl2) extractable concentration were compared to SSDs for terrestrial plants derived from literature toxicity data. Also the 'free' nickel (Ni2+) concentration was calculated and compared. The results demonstrated that SSDs based on total nickel content highly depend on the experimental conditions set up for toxicity testing (i.e. selected soil and pH value) and thus on metal bioavailability in soil, resulting in an unacceptable uncertainty for ecological risk estimation. The use in SSDs of plant toxicity data expressed as 0.01 M CaCl2 extractable metal strongly reduced the uncertainty in the SSD curve and thus can improve the ERA procedure remarkably by taking bioavailability into account.     

The use of Monte-Carlo simulation techniques for risk assessment: study of a municipal waste incinerator

The incremental lifetime risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) for the residents living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) have been assessed. Two different pathways of exposure to PCDD/Fs, ingestion through the diet and exposure from MSWI emissions, were compared. Monte-Carlo simulations were carried out to obtain variability and uncertainty propagation The joint analysis of uncertainty and variability included a sensitivity analysis that identified the contribution to variance by different inputs. In general terms, PCDD/F ingestion through the diet contributed with more than 99% of the total risk, whereas direct exposition to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI was less than 1% The results show that the median (50% percentile) of non-carcinogenic risk due to PCDD/Fs in the population living in the surroundings of the MSWI was 0.72 and the ratio of the 95th percentile and fifth percentile was about 2. With respect to the total carcinogenic risk, the median increment in individual lifetime was 7.90 x 10(-5) while the ratio between the 95th percentile and the fifth percentile was about 1.5. In this analysis, a sequential structural decomposition of the relationships between the input variables has been used to partition the variance in the output (risk) in order to identify the most influential contributors to overall variance among them.     

Human health and environmental risk assessment: the need for a more harmonised and integrated approach

Historically the procedures for human risk assessment and for risk assessment have developed separately with different terminologies and separate data bases. The identification that there are many common features and that sharing of certain types of data for risk assessment purposes would be beneficial is a driver towards a better integration of their procedures. Risk assessors are facing increasing challenges from governments, stimulated by public pressure for (i) human and environmental risk assessments of an ever growing number of products and processes, (ii) further restrictions of the use of animal tests and human studies on ethical grounds, (iii) the requirement to demonstrate that the assessments are independent, transparent and of high quality, (iv) reducing resources in particular a diminishing number of individuals with the scientific depth, breadth and independence act as risk assessors, (v) the need to incorporate new sciences continually and new discoveries into the risk assessment process. It is important for society that these challenges are met successfully. This requires changes in both risk assessment procedures and in the infrastructure needed to support them. Risk assessment is a science based process for establishing the likelihood of adverse effects to human health and to the environment from specific chemical, biological and physical agents. In the last few years there has been a renewed effort, by international bodies such as WHO, OECD and the EU, to achieve a more integrated and harmonised approach to risk assessment. Before examining the potential for a more integrated approach to risk assessment it is timely to consider the key factors which have led to the current position.     

Reactive transport of uranium(VI) and phosphate in a goethite-coated sand column: an experimental study

The migration of uranium(VI) in subsurface environments is strongly influenced by its adsorption/desorption reactions at the solid/solution interface. Phosphate is often present in subsurface systems and was shown to significantly affect U(VI) adsorption in previous batch experiments. In this study, column experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of phosphate on U(VI) adsorption and transport under flow conditions. The adsorption of U(VI) and phosphate was very low on pure quartz sand with negligible effects on U(VI) and phosphate transport. However, U(VI) and phosphate transport was retarded in a column packed with goethite-coated sand. The presence of phosphate, either as a co-solute with U(VI) or pre-adsorbed, greatly increased U(VI) adsorption and retardation. U(VI) and phosphate adsorption in our column experiments were rate-limited, and the adsorption of U(VI) and phosphate was not reversible, with kinetic limitations more pronounced for desorption than for adsorption. This study demonstrated the importance of phosphate in controlling U(VI) mobility in subsurface environments and helped illustrate some phenomena potentially applicable to U(VI) adsorption and transport in natural systems, especially where U(VI) adsorption is rate-limited.