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<正>Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,Print ISSN 1004-2857,Online ISSN 2325-4262,Volume 11,2013.Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment(www.tandfonline.com/tpre)is a peer-reviewed journal published in March,June,September,and December by TaylorFrancis,4 Park Square,Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon,OX14 4RN,UK.     

Toward legitimate governance strategies for climate adaptation in the Netherlands: combining insights from a legal,planning, and network perspective

In general, the issue of climate change is characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and multifacetedness. In the Netherlands, climate change is in above highly controversial. These characteristics make it difficult to realize adaptation measures that are perceived as legitimate. In this article, we analyze the main difficulties and dilemmas with regard to the issue of legitimacy in the context of climate adaptation. We conceptualize legitimacy from a legal, a planning, and a network perspective and show how the concept of legitimacy evolves within these three perspectives. From a legal perspective, the focus is on the issues of good governance. From a planning perspective, the focus is on the flexibility, learning, and governance capacity. From a network perspective, issues of dialogue, involvement, and support are important. These perspectives bring in different criteria, which are not easy compatible. We describe and illustrate these legitimacy challenges using an in-depth study of the Dutch IJsseldelta Zuid case. From our case study, we conclude that, from a legitimacy perspective, the often acclaimed necessity to be adaptive and flexible is quite problematic. The same holds true for the plea to mainstream adaptation into other policy domains. In our case study, these strategies give rise to serious challenges in relation to good governance and consensus—two indispensable cornerstones of legitimacy.     

Bridging the legitimacy gap—translating theory into practical signposts for legitimate flood risk governance

Legitimacy is widely regarded as a founding principle of ‘good’ and effective governance, yet despite intense academic debate and policy discourse, the concept remains conceptually confusing and poorly articulated in practice. To bridge this gap, this research performed an interpretive thematic analysis of academic scholarship across public administration, public policy, law, political science, and geography. Four core themes were identified in relation to representative deliberation, procedural and distributive equity and justice, and socio-political acceptability, with numerous sub-themes therein. In an attempt to clarify conceptual confusion, this paper grounds these theoretical debates in the context of flood risk governance where numerous legitimacy dilemmas exist. A number of questions are presented as conceptual ‘signposts’ to encourage reflexive governance in the future. Thus, more broadly, we assert the importance of bringing legitimacy to the forefront of contemporary flood risk governance discourse and practice, moving beyond the realm of academic reflection.

     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

Feeding the world sustainably: knowledge governance and sustainable agriculture in the Argentine Pampas

This article discusses the role of knowledge governance arrangements in the mainstreaming of sustainable practices, in particular, in the creation, sharing and use of integrated and contextualized knowledge. That is, knowledge which accounts for the social, economic, institutional, and ecological dimensions of potentially sustainable practices, and which considers the need to adapt generic practices to the sustainability requirements of specific places. An actor-centered approach is proposed for the study of the historical evolution of knowledge governance arrangements in order to understand their role in the adoption of sustainable practices. The approach is applied to explain the rapid adoption of no-till agriculture in the Argentine Pampas. A radical knowledge governance transformation occurring in this region during the 1990s led to increasing knowledge exchange and pushing sustainability practices to the top of key actors’ agendas. This embracing of no-till agriculture illustrates the crucial role played by farmers’ associations as boundary organizations: linking farmers with actors specialized in the generation of scientific knowledge and technology. This case reveals that sustainability transitions can be fostered through knowledge governance arenas characterized by: (a) promoting public–private collaboration through boundary organizations, (b) assigning private actors a leading role in the adoption of sustainability practices at the production unit scale, (c) fostering the public sector competence in regional and socio-ecological research, and (d) addressing the heterogeneous needs of knowledge users. However, the case also shows that the success of no-till agriculture in the Pampas is pushing the agriculturization of surrounding areas where this practice is largely unsustainable. This finding suggests that present knowledge governance arrangements fail to contextualize practices that are potentially sustainable.     

Legitimacy of urban climate change adaptation: a case in Helsinki

While there is general agreement on the necessity for local adaptation, there is a wide range of different understandings of what type of adaptation is seen as legitimate. It is often contested who should actively steer and take part in local adaptation, for which reasons and based on what kind of mandate, and with which methods. Planning theory can serve as a helpful reference point for examining the sources of legitimacy for adaptation in an urban context. From a planning perspective, adaptation is concerned with climate change as one out of many issues planning has to respond to. The layered co-existence of planning paradigms in practice suggests diverse, sometimes contradictory sources of legitimacy for urban planning and—as we claim here—also for climate change adaptation. This study examines the legitimacy of adaptation from a planning theoretical perspective in Helsinki, drawing on semi-structured interviews and social network analysis to show how adaptation is commonly understood from a rationalist perspective as an apolitical activity with local authorities’ experts designing and implementing adaptation. Nevertheless, some of the central actors understand adaptation as a communicative activity and a common deliberation of solutions. The co-occurrence of disparate paradigms results in ambiguous legitimacy that can impede the successful implementation of local climate change adaptation.     

平原集水区城镇化对暴雨洪水影响研究 ——以常州市双桥浜为例

城镇化下土地利用变化影响了流域洪水过程，并可能导致设计洪水发生变化。为进一步辅助城镇化流域防洪设计研究，以常州市双桥浜集水区为例，针对城镇化地区管网资料不全、区域管网河（渠）道排水过程复杂的问题，利用城市河道、道路、集水井等的汇水路径对高度城镇化小区进行子汇水区划分，基于HEC-HMS（Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System）模型建立了适合高度城镇化下平原集水区的降雨-径流模拟模型，以模拟分析城镇化下土地利用转变对暴雨洪水的影响。结果表明，城市绿地向城镇化转变的过程较未利用地向城镇化转变使洪水增加得更大更快，且洪峰的增加幅度小于洪量的增加幅度。同时，随着土地利用转换程度的增大，对洪水影响的差异性也在增大，且低重现期洪水所表现的差异性更为明显。研究结果可为平原河网地区防洪减灾提供一定参考依据。     

Urban sprawl,public transport,and increasing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions: the case of Metro Manila,Philippines

Current international discussions on the increasingly critical levels of carbon emissions from the transportation sector commonly attribute the causality chain to urban sprawl growth–private car use–carbon emission. An often assumed development context of this causality chain is that common of developed country urbanization. However, in the particular context of developing country urbanization, urban sprawl and associated workplace–home distanciation may lead to more intensive use by the urban workforce of public mass transportation system, instead of higher dependence on private vehicle travel. Thus, the source of the rise in carbon emission may actually be the public transportation system. Utilizing mixed methods, combining quantitative (origin–destination matrices) and qualitative data gathering and analysis, the authors present a case study in Metro Manila which has been experiencing sprawl and increasing costs and unaffordability of land and housing in the workforce’s vicinity of employment. This, in turn, causes greater distances of daily travel between home and workplace using public transportation system. When the latter is characterized by fuel-inefficient small vehicles with second-hand engines, higher carbon emission results. We argue that the convergence of multiple interacting factors such as urban sprawl, lack of affordability of housing near the centres of employment, high dependence of commuters on public transports, longer distance travel by commuters, and low fuel efficiency of the public utility vehicles primarily causes the increase in CO₂ emission from the transport sector. Implications of this case to policy scoping of immediate and long-term state responses for carbon emission mitigation in transportation sector are discussed.     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

湖南城市洪涝易损性诊断与评估

首先从孕育洪涝灾害的环境变异性、社会经济灾敏性、城市土地利用对洪涝的放大作用，防洪标准和人为设障等方面对湖南城市洪涝的易损性进行了总体诊断。然后，选取人口密度、工业产值密度、道路网密度、排水管道密度、建成区绿地率等指标，运用模糊综合评判对之进行了定量评估。将全省城市洪涝的易损性程度划分为5个等级；高度易损性，较高度易损性、中度易损性、较低度易损性、低度易损性。研究结果表明：湖南城市洪涝易损性程度总体水平高，因此，湖南洪涝防治要从以农村为重点转向以城市为重点，加大城市洪涝治理力度；湖南城市洪涝易损性程度等级与城市规模之间没有对应关系，因此，湖南城市洪涝防治应因地制宜。     

Resilience of the poorest: coping strategies and indigenous knowledge of living with the floods in Northern Namibia

In Northern Namibia, the climate is highly polarised between dry and wet seasons, and local communities have lived with these varying weather extremes for centuries. However, the recent changes in socio-environmental dynamics—associated with urbanisation, inappropriate spatial planning, and population growth—have disturbed the river system in the area. These changes, together with torrential seasonal rains, have aggravated the social impacts of the flood events. By using various qualitative and quantitative data sources, and comparative analyses between the flood dynamics in urban and rural environments, this research studies local residents’ coping strategies to endure the irregular flood events from the perspective of socio-ecological resilience. Particular interest is placed on the learning processes that enhance the residents’ capability to cope and the role of indigenous knowledge. Indigenous knowledge (IK) has been emphasised as a source of resilience in both theory and practice, as it is built upon learning from past experiences of natural hazards. The findings reveal that the floods are a result of complex and relational development without the necessary linear relationship between the causes and effects. The abrupt socio-ecological changes, together with the multiple stressors related to poverty, have made residents more vulnerable to the flood events and attenuated the communities’ coping strategies based on IK. Instead of focusing on the communities’ capacity to self-organise, the focus of resilience building needs to be directed to emphasising the broader socio-political processes, which are making the communities vulnerable in the first place.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Forest protected area governance in Bangladesh:a focus on the legal and policy framework

In the context of renewed interest in collaboration in natural resource management,the collaborative governance approach has lately been introduced to the forest Protected Areas(PAs)in Bangladesh.The adoption of this co-management approach is seen as an attempt to influence the governance process towards a transformation from the conventional custodian system to a more participatory management regime.Recognition of rights and responsibilities,effective participation,and equitable distribution of benefits amongst the key stakeholders working under a facilitative policy and legal framework are believed to address the broader goals of sustainable development Notwithstanding the resurgence of interest in governance of forest PAs through the co-management approach,academic research on the subject remains limited.This article attempts to review selected key information and milestones on the forest PAs governance with special reference to the major policies and legal documents.With a brief introductory section,this article focuses on the genesis and selected major features of the Forest PAs in the country.The discussion then dwells on the policy and legal framework and provides a critique on its relevance for promoting community participation.The existing institutional arrangements for community engagement in protected area governance are also analyzed in light of the national and international commitment and policy obligations on the part of the country.The salient observations and key findings of the study include the following:(1)despite its limitations,comanagement as concept and practice has gradually taken roots in Bangladesh;(2)the degree and level of active community participation remain low and limited,and there is also clear weakness in conscientizing and orientating the local community on the key legal and policy issues related to PA governance in the country;and(3)policy makers,practitioners,and other local stakeholders related to PA governance need to be oriented on international commitment and national de     

基于随机森林与可变模糊集的城市洪涝脆弱性评估

洪涝灾害作为城市面临的重要自然灾害之一，对社会经济发展造成了重要的影响。首先从自然、经济、基础设施3个方面利用随机森林模型以数据驱动的方式筛选出了影响城市洪涝脆弱性的12项关键指标并据此构建了城市洪涝脆弱性评估指标体系。在此基础上，基于随机森林和熵权法计算指标体系权重，构建基于随机森林（RF）和可变模糊集（VFS）耦合的城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型（RF-VFS）。最后，以长江流域特大城市南京市为例，进行洪涝脆弱性评估，得到了影响南京市洪涝脆弱性的关键影响因素，并从完善城市洪涝管理政策、加强城市基础设施建设和防灾减灾应急措施3个方面提出了降低城市洪涝脆弱性的对策建议。结果表明：南京市洪涝脆弱性与汛期降雨量、硬地面积、地均GDP、城市道路网密度等指标呈较强关联；近20年南京市洪涝脆弱性等级呈上升趋势且高等级的年份出现频率愈加频繁，尤其是近5年洪涝脆弱性等级较高，研究结果与实际调研情况相符。该研究能为南京市相关管理部门加强洪涝管理和降低洪涝脆弱性提供决策参考，同时对其他城市的洪涝灾害管理也具有借鉴意义。     

Investigating the malleable socioeconomic resilience pathway to urban cohesion: a case of Taipei metropolitan area

It is known that globalization has led first- and second-tier cities’ urban restructuring trajectories, excreted pressures, and caused tremendous socioeconomic volatility. This resulted in marginalized communities in dire of social empowerment, employment structure variance, and industry sectoral adjustment. Moreover, recent successive climate and health crisis unfolded and affirmed the state of our urban incompetence to sustain socioeconomic resilience or otherwise; lacking swift responses in providing critical management and services, cites are facing multifaceted challenges. Urban well-being and resilience are at stake. Although the environmental and health dimensional effects are apparent, this study ascertains that the transept multi-scalar analysis within the urban socioeconomic structure is crucial in sustaining core resilience to foster health and well-being of the community. As an integral part of the investigation, the revised DPSIR assessment framework is applied to evaluate the sectoral shift; spatial structure disarray and urban codependence degree are examined within the Taipei metropolitan area (TMA), a medium size but densely populated metropolitan area in Taiwan. The place-based DPSIR analysis ascertained the states and impacts in TMA: (1) A population decline speeded the restructuring of the urban core, while the impact of demographic aging and shrinkage rate mandates proper management and planning responses to the decline process; (2) the socioeconomic state effect is determined but does not critically affect the periphery zone, while an uneven demographic shift within the urban core necessitates dynamic adjustment responses to appropriately provide intergenerational services; (3) the uneven sector redistribution stimulated the core’s spatial and structural inter-dependency with peripheral zones, requiring governance with tighter cross-administration cooperation among respective public sectors; and (4) facing the sector/temporal and demographic pressure, urban cohesiveness in the TMA is greatly affected, which in turn disrupts the resilience pathway toward a cohesion. The study ascertained that the revised DPSIR framework could provide cities facing pressing socioeconomic drivers with effective analysis to allocate pressures, states, and impacts and formulate the necessary responses. To assure the socioeconomic resilience and urban cohesiveness, planning policy should carefully monitor and evaluate socio-demographic and sector redistribution factors to promote the urban resilience.

     

Governance and networks for health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: Lessons from two Indian cities

Health has been the main driver for many urban environmental interventions, particularly in cases of significant health problems linked to poor urban environmental conditions. This paper examines empirically the links between climate change mitigation and health in urban areas, when health is the main driver for improvements. The paper aims to understand how systems of urban governance can enable or prevent the creation of health outcomes via continuous improvements in the environmental conditions in a city. The research draws on cases from two Indian cities where initiatives were undertaken in different sectors: Surat (waste) and Delhi (transportation). Using the literature on network effectiveness as an analytical framework, the paper compares the cases to identify the possible ways to strengthen the governance and policy making process in the urban system so that each intervention can intentionally realize multiple impacts for both local health and climate change mitigation in the long term as well as factors that may pose a threat to long-term progress and revert back to the previous situation after initial achievements.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

A conceptual framework for analyzing deltas as coupled social–ecological systems: an example from the Amazon River Delta

At the nexus of watersheds, land, coastal areas, oceans, and human settlements, river delta regions pose specific challenges to environmental governance and sustainability. Using the Amazon Estuary-Delta region (AD) as our focus, we reflect on the challenges created by the high degree of functional interdependencies shaping social–ecological dynamics of delta regions. The article introduces the initial design of a conceptual framework to analyze delta regions as coupled social–ecological systems (SES). The first part of the framework is used to define a delta SES according to a problem and/or collective action dilemma. Five components can be used to define a delta SES: social–economic systems, governance systems, ecosystems-resource systems, topographic-hydrological systems, and oceanic-climate systems. These components are used in association with six types of telecoupling conditions: socio-demographic, economic, governance, ecological, material, and climatic-hydrological. The second part of the framework presents a strategy for the analysis of collective action problems in delta regions, from sub-delta/local to delta to basin levels. This framework is intended to support both case studies and comparative analysis. The article provides illustrative applications of the framework to the AD. First, we apply the framework to define and characterize the AD as coupled SES. We then utilize the framework to diagnose an example of collective action problem related to the impacts of urban growth, and urban and industrial pollution on small-scale fishing resources. We argue that the functional interdependencies characteristic of delta regions require new approaches to understand, diagnose, and evaluate the current and future impacts of social–ecological changes and potential solutions to the sustainability dilemmas of delta regions.     

基于系统动力学的城市洪涝韧性仿真研究 ——以南京市为例

城市是一个开放的、复杂的巨系统，洪涝灾害对该系统中的自然、基础设施、社会经济等要素产生直接或间接影响，理清洪涝灾害与城市系统的交互关系，并评估预测其应对洪涝灾害的韧性能力，有助于韧性城市的规划建设。通过分析洪涝灾害与城市系统要素间的反馈关系，构建了城市洪涝韧性仿真模型，并以南京市为例，设定了现状延续型、经济优先型、规划发展型、韧性发展型4种发展情景，模拟在4种情景下2009～2025年南京市洪涝韧性的动态变化。结果表明：（1）构建的城市洪涝韧性仿真模型能够反映洪涝灾害与城市系统要素间的交互关系，用于预测城市洪涝韧性变化；（2）城市系统中建成区绿化覆盖面积、雨水管网设计标准对城市洪涝韧性影响显著；（3）根据现有城市发展规划，南京市洪涝韧性将不断提升，且优于现状延续发展情景，但与世界典型韧性城市还有一定差距，建议南京市从城市绿化、雨水管网设计标准、经济结构、人口素质等方面提升其洪涝韧性能力。研究结果可为南京市及其它城市韧性城市发展规划制定提供理论与科学依据。