Bringing it all together: researcher dialogue to improve synthesis in regional climate adaptation in South-East Queensland,Australia

The effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in one sector can be compromised or aided by policies developed in another sector. When the focus of adaptation is a single geographical region, this potential for interaction between sectoral policies is heightened due to spatial, political and functional proximities. This paper analyses interactions within three suites of climate adaptation options developed for Australia’s ‘South-East Queensland’ region relating to: (1) wetland migration, coastal infrastructure and planned retreat; (2) urban water security and energy demand; and (3) terrestrial biodiversity and agricultural viability. Using the concept of ‘institutional interplay’ to structure a process of dialogue amongst researchers, we identify a number of critical implementation requirements for successful regional-scale adaptation. There is a need for greater focus on neighbourhood or sub-regional scales of policy design and intervention, particularly for the coordination of adapted infrastructure and services to households. Policy-makers must also be more explicit in considering broader drivers of land-use change and economic adjustment likely to impact on proposed adaptations. In considering these issues, our paper also demonstrates a process for conducting cross-sectoral syntheses that can be employed in other regional-scale adaptation studies.     

The challenge of adapting centralised electricity systems: peak demand and maladaptation in South East Queensland,Australia

South East Queensland’s (SEQ’s) centralised electricity system is under great pressure to adapt. Climate change is converging with socio-economic, demographic and technological changes to create a ‘perfect storm’ for the region’s electricity system. Distribution networks are particularly affected, with these factors contributing to tremendous peak demand growth, about double the rate of growth in average demand in recent years. This paper reviews how Australia’s electricity system is adapting to multiple drivers of peak electricity demand. We use socio-technical transitions theory to understand the temporal interconnected social and technical dimensions of adaptation in this setting. Specifically, we present an historical narrative of the emergence of centralisation in Australia and outline the peak demand problem in SEQ and review adaptation options from the international literature. We also analyse the interactions between key social groups and their adaptation responses over the past decade. Our analysis shows that adaptation has become a contested process between supply-chain actors and end-users, each with different economic objectives, adaptation needs and capacities. The resulting adaptation dynamic that is emerging shows worrying signs of maladaptation. Implications for market governance and urban policy and research are discussed.     

From climate research to climate compatible development: experiences and progress in the Netherlands

Over the past decades, significant experience has been gained in demand-driven research on climate change in many countries. In the Netherlands, a competitive call for proposals for large research programmes at the interface between policy, science and private sector was issued in 2001. Members of the Dutch climate research community proved they were able to develop two large research programme proposals which were funded: ‘Climate changes Spatial Planning’ and its successor ‘Knowledge for Climate’. The programmes ran from 2004 to 2012 and from 2008 to 2014, respectively. Both programmes can be considered as a 10-year research programme experiment to develop knowledge about both the climate system and climate compatible development by crossing disciplines, institutions and national research funding strategies. Within this 10-year period, a trend can be observed in which a ‘top-down’ climate impact assessment approach is increasingly combined with a ‘bottom-up’ approach. Based on the 15 articles presented in this special issue (and others), we argue that this development has enriched both fundamental and applied research on climate adaptation. Despite the predominantly Dutch-oriented scope of the presented research, we believe that such experiences can be of international interest. Climate adaptation research finds itself in between global systems knowledge on the one hand and practical needs and experiences at the local, regional and national level on the other. This demands the utmost from all actors involved to enable an efficient and constructive flow and use of knowledge and expertise.     

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

Economic appraisal and technical effectiveness of adaptation options are key criteria for judging climate change adaptation investment decisions in all sectors. Yet relatively little methodological guidance exists for determining the most appropriate appraisal techniques for different adaptation options. This paper provides adaptation options and scopes relevant appraisal methods in agriculture focussing on livestock production specifically. We find that for many adaptation options for livestock agriculture, standard (expected) cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate tool. For adaptation options requiring long lead times or those with long lifetimes, techniques incorporating uncertainty (‘robust’ methods) are more suitable, including real options analysis, portfolio analysis and robust decision-making. From a comprehensive list of adaptation options in the livestock sector, we identify the most appropriate appraisal technique for each option and describe how the robust appraisal tools could be applied to heat stress, flood risk and water management.

     

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

Entry points for climate-informed planning for the water resources and agriculture sectors in Cambodia

Incorporating climate change concerns into national development planning allows adaptation to happen in harmony with the sustainable development of a country. Cambodia has received international support to enable climate change-resilient development; “mainstreaming climate change” is one of the key recent strategies. This article aims to identify entry points for integrating climate change concerns into national development planning, especially for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The study uses institutional ethnography research methods with informants drawn from government organisations, local academic institutions, and development partners, together with content analysis of key policy documents. It was found that the Cambodian national planning process restricts the involvement of other actors such as researchers, civil society, and private sector; yet flexible, in that it provides opportunities for the inclusion of climate change and other related concerns. The study identified specific entry points in key policy documents, such as the National Strategic Development Plans, and ministries’ plans. Other entry points were identified in the development planning process, for example, in the process of development departments and ministries’ plans, and actors such as department planners, and departments of planning of line ministries. Climate-informed planning is now plausible; more significant integration of concerns with future climate change, however, will require more commitment and stronger connections among national planning stakeholders, adaptation actors, and research communities.     

Agricultural innovation and adaptation to climate change: empirical evidence from diverse agro-ecologies in South Asia

While impacts of climate change on agricultural systems have been widely researched, there is still limited understanding of what agricultural innovations have evolved over time in response to both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Although there has been some progress in formulating national adaptation policies and strategic planning in different countries of South Asia, research to identify local-level adaptive strategies and practices is still limited. Through eight case studies and a survey of 300 households in 15 locations in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, this paper generates empirical evidence on emerging agricultural innovations in contrasting socio-economic, geographical and agro-ecological contexts. The study demonstrates that several farm practices (innovations) have emerged in response to multiple drivers over time, with various forms of institutional and policy support, including incentives to reduce risks in the adoption of innovative practice. It further shows that there is still limited attempt to systematically mainstream adaptation innovations into local, regional and national government structures, policies and planning processes. The paper shows that the process of farm-level adaptation through innovation adoption forms an important avenue for agricultural adaptation in South Asia. A key implication of this finding is that there is a need for stronger collaborations between research institutions, extension systems, civil society and the private sector actors to enhance emerging adaptive innovations at the farm level.     

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban planning: overcoming barriers, seizing opportunities and evaluating the results in two Dutch case studies

With cities facing climate change, climate adaptation is necessary to reduce risks such as heat stress and flooding and maintain the goals of sustainable urban development. In climate change literature, the focus has been on developing a new dedicated policy domain for climate adaptation. Yet, empirical evidence shows that in practice actors are searching for solutions that not only serve climate adaptation, but integrate the adaptation objective in existing policy domains (e.g., urban planning, water management, public health). The integration of adaptation in other policy domains, also called “mainstreaming climate adaptation,” can stimulate the effectiveness of policy making through combining objectives, increase efficient use of human and financial resources and ensure long-term sustainable investments. A better understanding of the process of mainstreaming is, however, lacking. The article introduces a conceptual model for mainstreaming climate adaptation to enhance our understanding of the concept as well as the barriers and opportunities that influence these integration processes and to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and creating opportunities. Two Dutch case studies—related to urban planning—are used to illustrate the value of the model. The cases demonstrate the dynamic process of mainstreaming and raise discussion of the appropriate criteria for evaluating mainstreaming in relation to the aims of climate adaptation. The paper concludes with an exploration of specific strategies to facilitate the mainstreaming of adaptation in existing and new policy domains.     

多重压力下重点生态功能区农户的生计适应性研究——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

重点生态功能区对维护国家和区域生态安全至关重要,农户作为该区最主要的经济活动主体和最基本的生态环境保护单元,其对生计压力的适应性直接关系到重点生态功能区主体功能的发挥。本文以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南黄河水源补给区为例,基于入户调查数据,分析了农户的生计压力、适应能力及适应策略,并利用多元logistic回归模型探明了影响适应策略选择的关键因素。结果表明:①甘南黄河水源补给区有近90%的农户遭受多重生计压力的冲击,其中,“自然+社会+经济”型压力是该区农户面临最多的生计压力组合。②经济示范区农户的适应能力最高,恢复治理区次之,重点保护区最低;遭受“自然+社会”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最高,遭受“自然+社会+经济+政策”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最低。③甘南黄河水源补给区有87.45%的农户采取多种适应策略来应对生计压力,其中,选择“扩张+援助+收缩”型适应策略的农户占比最大。④自然资本、人力资本、社会资本、自然压力的严重程度和生计压力的多样化程度是影响适应策略的关键因素。鉴于此,政府应加大生态环境保护力度,拓宽农户增收渠道,建立多元化信贷机制,加强偏远地区基础设施建设,完善社会保障体系,提高农户在面临生计压力时的适应能力,促进生计可持续发展。     

“水十条”对工业水污染强度的影响及其机制

《水污染防治行动计划》(简称“水十条”)是国家为切实加大水污染防治力度,保障国家水安全而制定的法规。为检验“水十条”的政策影响效应,文章利用2012—2017年全国269个地级市的数据,结合工业化程度、对外开放水平、技术进步、人口规模、水资源禀赋等控制变量,运用双重差分法对“水十条”政策实施是否有助于减轻工业水污染强度进行研究。研究发现:我国中西部地区由于产业结构、技术水平等原因,工业水污染强度显著高于其他地区,“水十条”政策实施显著降低了中西部地区工业水污染强度。通过改变政策实施时间、剔除中心城市、增加控制变量以及剔除严重污染等方式进行重新回归,检验结果依然具有较强稳健性。进一步分析中,文章研究了产业结构以及技术创新的作用机制,发现第一产业比重显著降低,而第三产业显著提升,产业结构得到优化,并且技术创新效应显著加强。结果表明,产业结构升级以及技术创新均为“水十条”政策改善工业水污染强度的有效途径。在空间异质性方面,在环境规制强度较高的地区“水十条”政策对工业水污染强度的影响相对较小;而在环境规制强度较低地区却呈现出较强的抑制作用,主要原因在于环境规制强度高的地区水污染情况原本较好,因此污染强度降低幅度较小。因此,文章认为“水十条”政策能够显著改善工业水污染强度,并且加上环境规制、技术创新以及产业结构优化等手段的辅助能够更好地发挥政策效果。文章的发现为中国水污染防治行动提供了有益的政策启示。     

Mainstreaming climate adaptation: taking stock about “what works” from empirical research worldwide

Adaptation to a changing climate is unavoidable. Mainstreaming climate adaptation objectives into existing policies, as opposed to developing dedicated adaptation policy, is widely advocated for public action. However, knowledge on what makes mainstreaming effective is scarce and fragmented. Against this background, this paper takes stock of peer-reviewed empirical analyses of climate adaptation mainstreaming, in order to assess current achievements and identify the critical factors that render mainstreaming effective. The results show that although in most cases adaptation policy outputs are identified, only in a minority of cases this translates into policy outcomes. This “implementation gap” is most strongly seen in developing countries. However, when it comes to the effectiveness of outcomes, we found no difference across countries. We conclude that more explicit definitions and unified frameworks for adaptation mainstreaming research are required to allow for future research syntheses and well-informed policy recommendations.

     

From robustness to resilience: avoiding policy traps in the long term

The likelihood of being faced with trap-like situations is a worrisome aspect of long-term policy-making, such as for climate change adaptation. Even when a policy may be effective in the short-term, changes in problem or policy contexts may render it ineffective over time. The design of ‘robust’ policies, meaning those which are able to self-adjust to linear changes in their environment, can be contrasted with ‘resilient’ ones which are able to adjust not only to linear, but also non-linear shifts in their contexts. Building on Boonstra and de Boer (AMBIO 43:260–274, 2014)’s argument that traps should not be considered as a static phenomenon; rather their emergence and development is often directly influenced by history and path-dependency, this paper elaborates how trap-like situations can emerge with increase in climate uncertainty over time. Three strategies to address policy traps due to climate change form subjects of inquiry in this paper: avoiding traps in the first place, designing against traps, and overcoming traps once in them. Each requires a specific type of design thinking and practice.     

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Global warming of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and a commensurate increase in global greenhouse gas emissions pose an unprecedented danger to human settlements, livelihoods and the sustainable development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), yet these challenges present tremendous opportunities to rethink development pathways. The paper has two objectives. One is to critically review present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies employed by the state, private sector, non-governmental organisations, community-based organisations and households. The other is to discuss vulnerabilities and identify adaptation and resiliency strategies which are considered most applicable beyond the 1.5 °C limit. The Caribbean Region is the focus of the paper. A key finding of the paper is that temperature change above the 1.5 °C limit set by the Paris Conference of the Parties will make the natural and human systems of SIDS even more highly vulnerable than they are already. Another finding is that Caribbean states have implemented various innovative climate change adaptation strategies, but their relevance should the 1.5 °C target be exceeded, requires further exploration. The paper is useful to policymakers, decision-makers and finance agencies in search of practical solutions to avert the implications for Caribbean settlements, economies and ecosystems should the temperature warming exceed 1.5 °C.     

Climate change adaptation,flood risks and policy coherence in integrated water resources management in England

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less ‘integrated’ in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed.

     

Farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability in Dimapur district of Nagaland, India

Certain parts of the State of Nagaland situated in the northeastern region of India have been experiencing rainfall deficit over the past few years leading to severe drought-like conditions, which is likely to be aggravated under a climate change scenario. The state has already incurred considerable losses in the agricultural sector. Regional vulnerability assessments need to be carried out in order to help policy makers and planners formulate and implement effective drought management strategies. The present study uses an ‘index-based approach’ to quantify the climate variability-induced vulnerability of farmers in five villages of Dimapur district, Nagaland. Indicators, which are reflective of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers to drought, were quantified on the basis of primary data generated through household surveys and participatory rural appraisal supplemented by secondary data in order to calculate a composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index of village New Showba was found to be the least, while Zutovi, the highest. The overall results reveal that biophysical characteristics contribute the most to overall vulnerability. Some potential adaptation strategies were also identified based on observations and discussions with the villagers.     

Environmental pollution in Africa

Mining and minerals industries are fast-growing, but at the same time, they have gained more attention due to their impacts over the environment and society. This research aims to provide new insights into the topic of perception and awareness toward sustainability in industrial mining in Brazil. The work included in-depth interviews with a set of companies’ managers/directors focusing in particular on aspects related to the social and environmental dimensions, including communication and relationship with the community, impact assessment and mitigation strategies. The knowledge and use of for formal indicators was also evaluated and analyzed through the proposed Model for Sustainability Assessment of Mining (SAoM model), which was applied to all participating companies. The results put in evidence the existing gap between large and small companies, with these last ones showing lower awareness for the impacts of their activities. The lack of community engagement and of local stakeholders’ involvement, as well as the disregard for actions to mitigate their environmental and social impacts, is the main challenges to be overcome by this sector. The sector has then a long path to go toward sustainability and an active involvement of public institutions is required to allow for its development without compromising locals welfare.     

Recent climate change in the Prince Edward County winegrowing region,Ontario, Canada: implications for adaptation in a fledgling wine industry

There is mounting evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the wine industry, with effects being region specific. In order to understand the capacity of regional wine sectors to adapt to changing climate, it is useful to document the conditions that are important to producers and to identify adaptation and management strategies that are employed in the industry. This paper analyzes climatic conditions and adaptation strategies in the wine region of Prince Edward County Ontario, Canada. Wine producers identified the climate variables most important to their operations and described strategies they use to manage climate-related conditions. The identified variables were analyzed for trends over the study period 1987–2011, and interview data were analyzed in order to categorize adaptive strategies. Results indicate that the wine sector is very sensitive to climate, and the region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, especially with regard to increasing growing season mean minimum daily temperatures, increasing total summer rainfall, and later onset of fall frosts. Adaptive strategies employed by producers are largely learned though collaborative efforts and trial and error. The adaptations are mostly tactical and reactive in the short term, but with continued climate change, these strategies may develop into strategic, anticipatory measures. Climate change has the potential to present both challenges and opportunities to Prince Edward County wine producers, and adaptations will continue to require strong networking and collaborative efforts.     

Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change

Climate change poses serious challenges for populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to adversely affect the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative. Few studies have addressed the farmers’ adaptation in Iran, and little is known about ongoing adaptation strategies in use. Adopting principal component analysis/fuzzy logic-based method, this paper considers the agricultural adaptation to climate variability. A survey of 255 farmers of Fars Province, selected through a multistage stratified random sampling method, revealed different levels of adaptation, specifically the low, moderate and high, which are principally distinguished by various degrees of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study also identified the main adaptation strategies used by farmers in response to climate-related shocks. Results indicated that although a large percentage of farmers make some adjustments to their farming practices, there are significant differences in choice of adaptation strategies by the adaptation categories. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate variability and change.     

Contract farming and the adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies in the northern region of Ghana

In climate change adaptation, contract farming can facilitate the adoption of coping and adaptation strategies, but such dynamics are less understood in the literature. This study uses primary data collected from a cross section of crop farmers in northern Ghana and a simultaneous equation systems approach to examine the links between contract farming and adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies. The major coping and adaptation strategies used by farmers include spraying of farms with chemicals, row planting, mixed farming, mixed cropping and crop rotation. Econometric results confirm that contract farming enhances the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies, but there is also a feedback effect on contract farming, such that farmers adopting more adaptation strategies have higher probabilities to get contract offer. This makes contract farming a viable policy instrument to consider in climate change adaptation. Furthermore, land ownership and extension services exert significant positive influence on adoption. As much as possible, coping and adaptation strategies should effectively be communicated to crop farmers. Policy-wise, development actors and successive governments in Ghana should encourage and facilitate contract or group farming, as was in the case of the National Block Farming, led by Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture.