Numerical modeling of the 26th December 2004 India Ocean tsunami at Andaman and Nicobar Islands

A numerical simulation of the 26th December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands case study is presented. The simulation approach is based on a fully nonlinear Boussinesq tsunami propagation model and included an accurate computational domain and a robust coseismic source. The simulation is first confronted to available tide gauge and run-up observations. The agreement between observations and the predicted wave heights allowed a reasonable validation of the simulation. As a result a full picture of the tsunami impact is provided over the entire coastal zone of Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The processes responsible for coastal vulnerability are discussed.     

Sediment characterisation of the 26 December 2004 Indian ocean tsunami in Andaman group of islands, bay of Bengal, India

The large tsunami, which was generated by an earthquake on 26 December 2004, affected most of the countries around the Indian Ocean. A total of 48 tsunamigenic surface sediments have been collected from various coastal geomorphological features such as beaches, estuaries/creeks and mangrove areas in the Andaman group of islands. These samples were analysed for sediment characteristics such as sediment texture, granulometric studies. The studied tsunamigenic sediments, deposited by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in the Andaman group of islands consist of poorly sorted, coarse sand to medium sands, and are similar to depositional effects of previously reported earthquake-generated tsunami waves. The tsunamigenic sediment consists of a coarse sand layer with abundant reworked shell and other carbonate fragments. The tsunami sediments were mainly composed of boulders of corals and sand which determines the high-energy environment throughout the study area. The variation in Ф mean size, therefore, reveals the differential energy conditions that lead to the deposition of these kinds of sediments in different locations. The tsunamigenic sediments were mainly poorly sorted, moderately well sorted and well sorted during the post-tsunami (2005) and whereas they were mainly moderately well sorted to well sorted during the post-monsoon (2008). The symmetry of the samples varies from strongly fine skewed to strongly very coarse skewed in the post-tsunami (2005) and post-monsoon (2008). The Kurtosis of the tsunami sediments were mainly Platykurtic, Mesokurtic and Lepokurtic during the post-tsunami (2005) and mainly Mesokurtic and Lepokurtic in post-monsoon (2008).     

Integrated approach of assessing sedimentary characteristics of onshore sand deposits on the Velankanni coast, Tamil Nadu, India: sheds light on extreme wave event signatures

The refraction of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami waves caused drastic devastation along East coast of India, mainly in the area of investigation. Here, we appraise and integrate the sedimentary characteristics and microfossil studies of the area. The gigantic tsunami waves caused the landward fining of sediments that were carried as suspended load. Tsunami sediments have distinctive characteristics, like fine-to-medium grained sand, moderately to poorly sorted sediments which indicating sudden winnowing followed by tranquil flood. Positively skewed grain size distribution indicating unidirectional transport, and mesokurtic to platykurtic character implying poorly sorted single source origin. The species of benthonic foraminifers and ostracods reside in marine environment indicating shallow water origin of sediments. The onshore deposits are vertically divided into three depositional units interpreted from Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) signatures—Unit 1 is a relatively continuous parallel layer indicative of calm environment; Unit 2 has paleochannels and burial scarps, seen as oblique reflections that might be indicative of an intense erosional environment; Unit 3 is interpreted as 2004 tsunami layer, has three subunits. Each main units have been separated by Heavy Mineral Concentrated (HMC) layers, deposited by continuous wave action (~?20 cm) and by the tsunami (>?30 cm) activity, evidenced by low magnetic susceptibility values at the bottom compared to the top of the HMC layers. GPR has been effectively utilized in this paper as subsurface imaging tool for the interpretation and reconstruction of stratigraphy, and also helped to unearth the erosional and depositional environments.     

Tourists and disasters: lessons from the 26 December 2004 tsunamis

The 26 December 2004 tsunamis around the Indian Ocean exposed the vulnerability of many coastal communities, including those serving tourists. To draw conclusions regarding disaster risk reduction for tourism in coastal areas, this study surveyed international tourists who survived the tsunami regarding their perceptions and experiences of the disaster. Semi-structured interviews were completed between January and June 2005 of 55 primary interviewees who were international tourists in locations affected by the tsunami. The qualitative data from the interviews yielded commonalities across four main themes with relevance to disaster risk reduction: information and awareness, warning systems, personal preparation, and livelihoods. Three areas are suggested as topics to highlight for further investigation: the connections between sustainable tourism and disaster vulnerability, the role of tourists in disasters, and disaster risk reduction education.     

A GIS-based coastal monitoring and surveillance observatory on tropical islands exposed to climate change and extreme events: the example of Mayotte Island,Indian Ocean

The global change currently observed is deemed to generate accelerated coastal erosion and an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Populated tropical island coasts are particularly vulnerable. Awareness of this vulnerability has prompted recourse to the construction of operational observatories on the coastal dynamics of several French tropical islands, including Mayotte. The aims of this initiative are to characterise the coastal morphology of tropical islands and to monitor their rhythms and mechanisms of evolution, adaptation and resilience in the face of extreme climate and wave events (cyclones, storms, surges, strong swells…). Based on this, appropriate defence and/or adaptation strategies can be developed and implemented. Mayotte Island is a fine example of the implementation and utility of such an observatory. The island, in the southwest Indian Ocean, is characterised by a highly diversified coral reef-lagoon complex comprising pocket beaches and mangroves subject to increasing pressure from strong island demographic growth. The operational observatory set up on the island incorporates a Geographical Information System (GIS) based on a network sourced by various field measurements and observations conducted on the coastal forms on the basis of a predefined protocol and methodology. Field experiments include hydrodynamic measurements, topographic surveys, and observations, and these are coupled with the analysis of aerial photographs and regional meteorological data in order to gain a better understanding of the coastal morphology and of the evolution of the reef-lagoon complex. The results fed into the observatory and analysed through the GIS provide interactive maps of the coastal landforms and their evolution and dynamics over various timescales. Within a local framework of strong socio-economic and demographic pressures, and a more global context of environmental change, this observatory should lead to a better understanding and prediction of the morphodynamics of the coast of Mayotte, while providing data to the public at large, to researchers, and to stakeholders involved in decision-making in the face of the major and rapid environmental and socio-economic changes liable to affect the fragile reef-mangrove systems and pocket beaches.     

Soil amendments and cultivar selection can improve rice yield in salt-influenced (tsunami-affected) paddy fields in Sri Lanka

The tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean in December 2004 caused devastation of agricultural soils by salt water over wide areas. Many rice fields located close to the coast were affected by the flood of seawater. Electric conductivity (EC) of soils in tsunami-affected rice fields was found to be higher compared to unaffected fields 2 years after the tsunami. Four soil amendments (gypsum, dolomite, cinnamon ash and rice-husk-charcoal) were tested for their influence on improving the yield parameters of rice grown in a tsunami-affected and a non-affected area. Yield parameters were compared with an untreated control of the same cultivar (AT362) and with a salt resistant rice variety (AT354). The salt resistant variety had the highest grain yield. The two amendments gypsum and rice-husk-charcoal led to an increase in grain yield compared to the untreated control, whereas dolomite and cinnamon ash had no significant effect on grain yield.     

Fast Ferry Traffic as a Qualitatively New Forcing Factor of Environmental Processes in Non-Tidal Sea Areas: A Case Study in Tallinn Bay,Baltic Sea

The impact of wake wash from high-speed ferries on the coastal environment in non-tidal seas is analysed in terms of wave energy and power, and properties of the largest waves. Shown is that hydrodynamic loads caused by heavy high-speed traffic may play a decisive role not only in low-energy coasts but also in certain areas with high wind wave activity. For example, ship-generated waves form, at least, about 5–8% from the total wave energy and about 18–35% from the wave power in the coastal areas of Tallinn Bay exposed to dominating winds. The periods of wake waves from high-speed ships frequently are much larger than dominating periods of wind waves. The leading waves typically have a height of about 1 m and a period of 10–15 s. Such waves extremely seldom occur in natural conditions in many regions of semi-enclosed seas. They cause unusually high hydrodynamic loads in the deeper part of the nearshore. The fast ferry traffic thus is a qualitatively new forcing component of vital impact on the local ecosystem. It is demonstrated that wakes from high-speed ferries may trigger considerable changes of the existing balance of coastal processes. Owing to their low decay rates combined with their exceptional compactness after crossing many kilometres of the sea surface, such wakes may cause considerable remote impact of the ship traffic. This feature has to be addressed in the analysis of the impact of harbours and associated ship traffic in the neighbourhood of vulnerable areas.     

The role of stable isotopes and mercury concentrations to describe seabird foraging ecology in tropical environments

Nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and carbon (δ¹³C) stable isotopes and contaminants, such as mercury, have been widely used to characterise foraging ecology of temperate and polar seabirds. In this study, for the first time, we used isotopic signatures and mercury levels of feathers and blood of eight tropical seabird species, that forage in a range-gradient between inshore and offshore areas, to describe the foraging habits of a large tropical seabird community (from two neighboring islands of the Seychelles archipelago, western Indian Ocean) during both the breeding and inter-breeding periods. Overall, we found a high overlap in both δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C signatures among species. The high inter-specific overlap in δ¹⁵N values was expected, given the similarities in the diet of the species from this community. However, several unexpected results, such as (1) the consistently higher δ¹⁵N signatures of white terns (Gygis alba), (2) the large variation in inter-specific differences in δ¹⁵N signatures among the sampling groups (season, age, island and tissue) and (3) the consistent low δ¹⁵N values of breeding birds during the northwest monsoon (austral summer), suggest that δ¹⁵N signatures cannot be used as indicators of seabird trophic levels in this community. The high inter-specific overlap in δ¹³C signatures and the absence, during the breeding season, of a δ¹³C gradient that follows the inshore-offshore foraging gradient within the community can be explained by the habitat homogeneity of the Seychelles continental shelf and suggest that birds forage mostly within the limits of this “plateau”. On the other hand, the similarities in δ¹³C values between the breeding and inter-breeding periods in species that are known to show post-breeding dispersal, strongly support the hypothesis of a lack of latitudinal variation in δ¹³C signatures of POM in the central Indian Ocean, and the consequent inaccuracy of δ¹³C values to track seabird movements within this geographic area. Inter-specific differences in mercury levels seem to be related to prey size, while consistent higher mercury concentrations in one of the studied islands suggest different island mercury-backgrounds and possible segregation in foraging areas between the seabirds of the two islands. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The Biogeography of Globally Threatened Seabirds and Island Conservation Opportunities

Seabirds are the most threatened group of marine animals; 29% of species are at some risk of extinction. Significant threats to seabirds occur on islands where they breed, but in many cases, effective island conservation can mitigate these threats. To guide island‐based seabird conservation actions, we identified all islands with extant or extirpated populations of the 98 globally threatened seabird species, as recognized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and quantified the presence of threatening invasive species, protected areas, and human populations. We matched these results with island attributes to highlight feasible island conservation opportunities. We identified 1362 threatened breeding seabird populations on 968 islands. On 803 (83%) of these islands, we identified threatening invasive species (20%), incomplete protected area coverage (23%), or both (40%). Most islands with threatened seabirds are amenable to island‐wide conservation action because they are small (57% were <1 km²), uninhabited (74%), and occur in high‐ or middle‐income countries (96%). Collectively these attributes make islands with threatened seabirds a rare opportunity for effective conservation at scale. La Biogeografía de Aves Marinas Amenazadas Globalmente y las Oportunidades de Conservación en Islas     

Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles

Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.     

Population structure of the black tiger prawn, Penaeus monodon, among western Indian Ocean and western Pacific populations

We examined the population structure of the black tiger prawn, Penaeus monodon Fabricius, 1798, in the Indo-West Pacific by analyzing the geographic distribution of elongation factor 1-alpha intron sequences from specimens collected during the winter and spring of 1997. Both the molecular phylogeny of alleles and F-statistics indicated very strong differentiation between populations from the western Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This pattern is concordant with other recent studies of marine species in this region, implying that the Indo-Australian Archipelago represents a biogeographic break between populations in the Indo-West Pacific. F _ST-values among populations in the western Indian Ocean also indicate structure within this region, whereas no structure was found among western Pacific populations. Nucleotide diversity was significantly lower in the western Indian Ocean populations than in the western Pacific, implying that the populations have regional differences in demographic history. Received: 16 November 1998 / Accepted: 26 May 1999     

Environmental Education as a Component of Multidisciplinary Conservation Programs: Lessons from Conservation Initiatives for Critically Endangered Fruit Bats in the Western Indian Ocean

Abstract:  Pteropus livingstonii , P. voeltzkowi , and P. rodricensis are three critically endangered fruit bats from western Indian Ocean islands for which multidisciplinary conservation programs have been established that include environmental education programs (EEPs). We describe these EEPs in terms of the strategies used to achieve them and evaluate the educational and conservation outcomes and impacts of the programs. Educational outputs (including posters, stickers, videos, lesson plans, and workshops), primarily linking human needs to the ecosystem services provided by bats, were delivered to schools and community groups, and local environmental educators were trained to further develop the EEPs. Outcomes included increased local awareness about the bats and their conservation, training of environmental educators, inclusion of bat conservation and environmental issues in the school curricula, and establishment of community-based environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Extensive prior planning, presentations in local languages, distribution of outputs through existing networks of educators, training of local educators, establishment of local environmental NGOs, and local capacity-building were all associated with these EEPs achieving their goals in the under-resourced island locations where these bats are found. The EEPs were also important in the development of other components of their respective conservation programs, such as population monitoring programs. Although long-term conservation impacts, particularly tackling habitat loss, are slow to materialize and social and economic issues need to be addressed, these EEPs have already had important outcomes and have established the foundation for future conservation actions.     

Post tsunami mangrove evaluation in coastal vicinity of Andaman Islands,India

The present study was carried out to determine the mangrove area water quality, mangrove diversity and density at Minnie Bay, Lalaji Bay and Aerial Bay (Andaman Islands, India). The physicochemical parameters such as salinity, nitrate, inorganic phosphate and total phosphorus varied significantly. Mangrove diversity was high at Minnie Bay while density at Aerial Bay. Rhizophora mucronata dominated at all three sites during the study period. Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H′?=?2.261) and Pielou’s evenness (J′?=?0.8348) were high at Minnie Bay. The higher species density cover (5.679 Nos./m²) was recorded at Aerial Bay. Bray-Curtis cluster analysis showed 63.35 % similarity and formed two clusters. Though uplift and subsidence of coastal land due to the Mw 9.3 Sumatra earthquake in 2004 has affected the mangrove vegetation, its rejuvenation was observed in the newly formed inter-tidal areas due to changes in coastal geomorphology. The comparative study on physicochemical parameters, mangrove coverage and conservation are discussed in detail.     

Physical and numerical modelling of tsunami generation by a moving obstacle at the bottom boundary

This paper presents a study of the waves generated by a solid block landslide moving along a horizontal boundary. The landslide was controlled using a mechanical system in a series of physical experiments, and laser-induced fluorescence measurements resolved both spatial and temporal variations in the free surface elevation. During its constant-velocity motion, the landslide transferred energy into ‘trapped’ offshore-propagating waves within a narrow frequency band. The wave trapping is demonstrated by investigating the wave dispersion characteristics using a two-dimensional Fourier Transform. The first of the trailing waves broke at Froude numbers greater than or equal to 0.625. The parametric dependence of the largest-amplitude waves and the potential energy within the wave field are discussed. The experimental results were compared to the predictions of an incompressible Navier–Stokes solver with and without turbulence models. The numerical model under-predicted the measured wave amplitudes, although it accurately predicted the measured wave phasing. The turbulent model more accurately predicted the shapes of the trailing waves. Both experimental and numerical results confirmed that investigations into wave generation by submerged objects moving at constant velocity should also consider the initial acceleration of the object, as this affects the overall evolution of the wave field. The applicability of the horizontal-boundary results to more realistic field scenarios is discussed.     

Performance and validation of a coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model for THANE cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

An accurate prediction of near-shore sea-state is imperative during extreme events such as cyclones required in an operational centre. The mutual interaction between physical processes such as tides, waves and currents determine the physical environment for any coastal region, and hence the need of a parallelized coupled wave and hydrodynamic model. The present study is an application of various state-of-art models such as WRF, WAM, SWAN and ADCIRC used to couple and simulate a severe cyclonic storm Thane that developed in the Bay of Bengal during December 2011. The coupled model (ADCIRC–SWAN) was run in a parallel mode on a flexible unstructured mesh. Thane had its landfall on 30 December, 2011 between Cuddalore and Pondicherry where in-situ observations were available to validate model performance. Comprehensive experiment on the impact of meteorological forcing parameters with two forecasted tracks derived from WRF model, and JTWC best track on the overall performance of coupled model was assessed. Further an extensive validation experiment was performed for significant wave heights and surface currents during Thane event. The significant wave heights measured along satellite tracks by three satellites viz; ENVISAT, JASON-1 and JASON-2, as well in-situ near-shore buoy observation off Pondicherry was used for comparison with model results. In addition, qualitative validation was performed for model computed currents with HF Radar Observation off Cuddalore during Thane event. The importance of WRF atmospheric model during cyclones and its robustness in the coupled model performance is highlighted. This study signifies the importance of coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model for operational needs during extreme events in the North Indian Ocean.     

Selection of Islands for Conservation in the Urban Archipelago of Helsinki, Finland

Abstract: The occurrence of vascular plants was surveyed on 207 islands (size range 0.01–390.2 ha, number of plant species 1–449) offshore from the city of Helsinki in the Baltic Sea to examine the conservation value of these islands. We calculated a rarity score for each species (1/number of islands occupied by the species) and a biodiversity score for each island (sum of the rarity scores of each species present on the island). Positive correlations between species number and biodiversity score (r _s = 0.97, p < 0.001) and between biodiversity score and island area (r _s = 0.87, p < 0.001) indicated that these parameters are heavily dependent on island size. With the goal of including at least one occurrence (island) of all plant species, an iterative selection algorithm chose a set of 41 islands whose average size (29.3 ha) was four times the average size of all existing islands (7.0 ha). Strong nestedness ( N < 54) explains the concentration of plant species diversity on large islands. An operational strategy for selection of sites for protection is to complement the set produced by a selection algorithm with target species not yet included (e.g., endangered species with several occurrences). Comprehensive mapping and analysis of a taxonomic group will help integrate conservation biology into land-use planning and increase the quality of the networks of protected areas.     

Genetic structure of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) populations on the Patagonian Shelf and Atlantic and western Indian Ocean Sectors of the Southern Ocean

The genetic structure of Patagonian toothfish populations in the Atlantic and western Indian Ocean Sectors of the Southern Ocean (SO) were analysed using partial sequences of the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene and seven microsatellite loci. Both haplotype frequency data (F _ST>0.906, P<0.01) and microsatellite genotype frequency data (F _ST=0.0141–0.0338, P<0.05) indicated that populations of toothfish from around the Falkland Islands were genetically distinct from those at South Georgia (eastern Atlantic Sector SO), around Bouvet Island (western Atlantic Sector SO) and the Ob Seamount (western Indian Ocean Sector of the SO). Genetic differentiation between these populations is thought to result from hydrographic isolation, as the sites are separated by two, full-depth, ocean-fronts and topographic isolation, as samples are separated by deep water. The South Georgia, Bouvet and Ob Seamount samples were characterised by an identical haplotype. However, microsatellite genotype frequencies showed genetic differentiation between South Georgia samples and those obtained from around Bouvet Island and nearby seamounts (F _ST=0.0037, P<0.05). These areas are separated by large geographic distance and water in excess of 3,000 m deep, below the distributional range of toothfish (<2,200 m). No significant genetic differentiation was detected between samples around Bouvet Island and the Ob Seamount although comparisons may have been influenced by low sample size. These localities are linked by topographic features, including both ridges and seamounts, that may act as oceanic “stepping stones” for migration between these populations. As for other species of deep-sea fish, Patagonian toothfish populations are genetically structured at the regional and sub-regional scales.     

The swimming crab Charybdis smithii: distribution, biology and trophic role in the pelagic ecosystem of the western Indian Ocean

Surface “swarms” of the swimming crabs Charybdis smithii are still considered as an unusual phenomenon in the open Indian Ocean, although their dense pelagic aggregations were already reported in waters off the Indian coast and in the northern Arabian Sea. Based on an extensive large-scale data series taken over 45 years, we demonstrate that C. smithii is common in the pelagic provinces of the western Indian Ocean driven by the wind monsoon regime. Swimming crabs are dispersed by the monsoon currents throughout the equatorial Indian Ocean. They aggregate at night in the upper 150-m layer, where their estimated biomass derived from pelagic trawling data can exceed 130 kg km⁻². Abundance of C. smithii can reach >15,000 ind. km⁻² in July (i.e. the peak of the south-west monsoon), declines by 50-fold in March and is negligible in May. C. smithii is an important prey for more than 30 species of abundant epipelagic top predators. In turn, it feeds on mesopelagic species. This swimming crab is a major species of the intermediate trophic levels and represents a crucial seasonal trophic link in the open ocean ecosystem of the western Indian Ocean. Outbursts in pelagic waters of huge biomasses of ordinarily benthic crustaceans (C. smithii and Natosquilla investigatoris) are a remarkable feature of the Indian Ocean, although similar, but smaller, events are reported in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

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Spatial structure of internal Poincaré waves in Lake Michigan

In this paper we examine the characteristics of near-inertial internal Poincaré waves in Lake Michigan (USA) as discerned from field experiments and hydrodynamic simulations. The focus is on the determination of the lateral and vertical structure of the waves. Observations of near-inertial internal wave properties are presented from two field experiments in southern Lake Michigan conducted during the years 2009 and 2010 at Michigan City (IN, USA) and Muskegon (MI, USA), respectively. Spectra of thermocline displacements and baroclinic velocities show that kinetic and potential baroclinic energy is dominated by near-inertial internal Poincaré waves. Vertical structure discerned from empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that this energy is predominantly vertical mode 1. Idealized hydrodynamic simulations using stratifications from early summer (June), mid-summer (July) and fall (September) identify the basin-scale internal Poincaré wave structure as a combination of single- and two-basin cells, similar to those identified in Lake Erie by Schwab, with near-surface velocities largest in the center of the northern and southern basins. Near-inertial bottom kinetic energy is seen to have roughly constant magnitude over large swathes across the basin, with higher magnitude in the shallower areas like the Mid-lake Plateau, as compared with the deep northern and southern basins. The near-bottom near-inertial kinetic energy when mapped appears similar to the bottom topography map. The wave-induced vertical shear across thermocline is concentrated along the longitudinal axis of the lake basin, and both near-bottom velocities and thermocline shear are reasonably explained by a simple conceptual model of the expected transverse variability.     

Threats to Avifauna on Oceanic Islands

Abstract:  Results of the study by Blackburn et al. (2004 a ) of avifauna on oceanic islands suggest that distance from the mainland and time since European colonization have major influences on species extinctions and that island area is a significant but secondary contributing factor. After augmenting the data of the study on geographical properties for some of the islands they examined, we used a causal analysis approach with structural equation modeling to reexamine their conclusions. In our model geographical properties of islands, such as island area and isolation, were considered constraints on biological factors, such as the number of introduced mammalian predators and existing number of avifauna, that can directly or indirectly influence extinction. Of the variables we tested, island area had the greatest total influence on the threat of extinction due to its direct and indirect effects on the size of island avifauna. Larger islands had both a greater number of threatened bird species and more avifauna, increasing the number of species that could become threatened with extinction. Island isolation also had a significant, positive, and direct effect on threats to island avifauna because islands farther from the mainland had fewer current extant avifauna. Time since European colonization had a significant negative, but relatively weaker, influence on threats compared with the traditional biogeographic factors of island area and distance to the mainland. We also tested the hypothesis that the amount of threat is proportionally lower on islands that have had more extinctions (i.e., there is a "filter effect"). Because the proportion of bird extinctions potentially explained only 2.3% of the variation in the proportion of threatened species on islands, our results did not support this hypothesis. Causal modeling provided a powerful tool for examining threat of extinction patterns of known and hypothesized pathways of influence.