Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Simulating the Impacts of Irrigation Levels on Soybean Production in Texas High Plains to Manage Diminishing Groundwater Levels

There is an increasing need to strategize and plan irrigation systems under varied climatic conditions to support efficient irrigation practices while maintaining and improving the sustainability of groundwater systems. This study was undertaken to simulate the growth and production of soybean [Glycine max (L.)] under different irrigation scenarios. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the CROPGRO‐Soybean model under Texas High Plains’ (THP) climatic conditions and to apply the calibrated model to simulate the impacts of different irrigation levels and triggers on soybean production. The methodology involved combining short‐term experimental data with long‐term historical weather data (1951–2012), and use of mechanistic crop growth simulation algorithms to determine optimum irrigation management strategies. Irrigation was scheduled based on five different plant extractable water levels (irrigation threshold [ITHR]) set at 20%, 35%, 50%, 65%, and 80%. The calibrated model was able to satisfactorily reproduce measured leaf area index, biomass, and evapotranspiration for soybean, indicating it can be used for investigating different strategies for irrigating soybean in the THP. Calculations of crop water productivity for biomass and yield along with irrigation water use efficiency indicated soybean can be irrigated at ITHR set at 50% or 65% with minimal yield loss as compared to 80% ITHR, thus conserving water and contributing toward lower groundwater withdrawals. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

Adaptive Water Resource Planning in the South Saskatchewan River Basin: Use of Scenarios of Hydroclimatic Variability and Extremes

The South Saskatchewan River Basin is one of Canada's most threatened watersheds, with water supplies in most subbasins over‐allocated. In 2013, stakeholders representing irrigation districts, the environment, and municipalities collaborated with researchers and consultants to explore opportunities to improve the resiliency of the management of the Oldman and South Saskatchewan River subbasins. Streamflow scenarios for 2025‐2054 were constructed by the novel approach of regressing historical river flows against indices of large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere climate oscillations to derive statistical streamflow models, which were then run using projected climate indices from global climate models. The impacts of some of the most extreme scenarios were simulated using the hydrologic mass‐balance model Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS). Based on stakeholder observations, the project participants proposed and evaluated potential risk management and adaption strategies, e.g., modifying existing infrastructure, building new infrastructure, changing operations to supplement environmental flows, reducing demand, and sharing supply. The OASIS model was applied interactively at live modeling sessions with stakeholders to explore practical adaptation strategies. Our results, which serve as recommendations for policy makers, showed that forecast‐based rationing together with new expanded storage could dramatically reduce water shortages.     

Environmental impact of irrigation in la violada district (Spain): I. Salt export patterns

Salt loading in irrigation return flows contributes to the salinization of the receiving water bodies, particularly when originated in salt-affected areas as frequently found in the middle Ebro River basin (Spain). We determined the salt loading in La Violada Gully from the total dissolved solids (TDS) and flows (Q) during the 1995 to 1998 hydrological years. Since this gully collects flows from various sources, an end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) was performed to quantify the drainage flow from La Violada Irrigation District (VID). Three flow components were identified in La Violada Gully: drainage waters from VID (Qd); tail-waters from irrigation ditches, spill-over, and seepage from the Monegros Canal (Qo); and ground water inflows (Qg) originating in the dryland watershed. Gypsum in the soils of VID was the main source for salts in La Violada Gully (flow-weighted mean TDS=1720 mg L-1, dominated by sulfate and calcium). The contribution of Qg to the total gully flow during the 1996 irrigation season was low (6.5% of the total flow). The 1995 to 1998 annual salt load average in La Violada Gully was 78 628 Mg, 71% of which was exported during the irrigation season. The 1995 to 1998 irrigation season salt load average in Qd was 43 015 Mg (77% of the total load). Thus, irrigated agriculture in VID was the main source of salt loading in this gully, with a yield of 11.1 Mg of salts per hectare of irrigated land for the irrigation season. Efficient irrigation systems and irrigation management practices that reduce Qd are key factors for controlling off-site salt pollution of these gypsum-rich irrigated areas.     

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Needs in the jaguaribe River Basin1

Gondim, Rubens S., Marco A.H. de Castro, Aline de H.N. Maia, Sílvio R.M. Evangelista, and Sérgio C. de F. Fuck, Jr., 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Needs in the Jaguaribe River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 355‐365. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00620.x Abstract: Climate change is conceptually referred to as a modification to the average of climate variables and their natural variability, due to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change potentially impacts rainfall, temperature, and air humidity, which have relationship with plant evapotranspiration and consequently to irrigation water needs (IWN). The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on climatic impacts stemming from future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The study area includes eight municipalities in the Jaguaribe River Basin, located in the Ceará State of semiarid northeast Brazil. The FAO Penman‐Monteith method is used for the calculation of a reference evapotranspiration with limited climatic data. IWN projections are calculated using bias‐corrected climate projections for monthly rainfall and surface temperature derived from the United Kingdom’s Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model simulations. The increase in the average IWN is projected to be 7.9 and 9.1% over the period 2025‐2055 for the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively with respect to 1961‐1990 baseline.     

Surface Water Seepage Effects on Shallow Ground‐Water Quality Along the Rio Grande in Northern New Mexico1

Abstract: Interactions between surface irrigation water, shallow ground water, and river water may have effects on water quality that are important for both drinking water supplies and the ecological function of rivers and floodplains. We investigated water quality in surface water and ground water, and how water quality is influenced by surface water inputs from an unlined irrigation system in the Alcalde Valley of the Rio Grande in northern New Mexico. From August 2005 to July 2006, we sampled ground water and surface water monthly and analyzed for concentrations of major cations and anions, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and water levels. Results indicate that irrigation ditch seepage caused an increase in ground water levels and that the Rio Grande is a gaining stream in this region. Temporal and spatial differences were found in ion concentrations in shallow ground water as it flowed from under the ditch toward the river. Ground‐water ion concentrations were higher when the ditch was not flowing compared with periods during peak irrigation season when the ditch was flowing. Ditch inputs diluted ion concentrations in shallow ground water at well positions near the ditch. Specifically, lower ion concentrations were detected in ground water at well positions located near the ditch and river compared with well positions located in the middle of an agricultural field. Results from this project showed that ditch inputs influenced ion concentrations and were associated with ground‐water recharge. In arid region river valleys, careful consideration should be given to management scenarios that change seepage from irrigation systems, because in some situations reduced seepage could negatively affect ground‐water recharge and water quality.     

Projections of highway vehicle population,energy demand,and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two‐wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206‐309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle‐growth and three fuel‐economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle‐growth and fuel‐economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404‐719 million metric tons (8.5‐15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions are projected to be 1.2‐2.2 billion metric tons.     

Conjunctive Water Use in Confined Basalt Aquifers: An Evaluation Using Geochemistry,a Numerical Model,and Historical Water Level

As withdrawals from deep compartmentalized aquifers increasingly exceed recharge throughout the western United States, conjunctive water use management alternatives have become an applied research priority. This study highlights both details and limitations of the role of irrigation canal seepage as groundwater recharge, revealing the regional limitations of canal seepage as a dependable source of recharge in overdrawn aquifers. A suite of geochemical indicators were used together with a numerical model to evaluate current and future management scenarios focused on recharge derived from seepage from a region‐wide irrigation canal system. Twenty‐five years of static groundwater level data were used to relate spatial trends determined using geochemistry and groundwater modeling with “on‐the‐ground” management practices, which vary based on acreage, crop, and irrigation scheduling. Increasing groundwater age determined using isotope analysis, and declines in potentiometric heads, each correlate with increasing distance from the canal reaches. Predictive modeling indicates that if pumping is gradually reduced, as has been suggested by management agencies, that recharge from canal seepage will be negligible by 2035 due to regional groundwater through‐flow and the pattern of potentiometric head recovery. Unfortunately, historic hydrographs suggest that under current groundwater development conditions most wells are not sustainable, irrespective of proximity to the canal.     

Simulating endosulfan transport in runoff from cotton fields in Australia with the GLEAMS model

Endosulfan (6,7,8,9,10,10-hexachloro-1,5,5a,6,9,9a-hexahydro-6,9methano-2,4,3-benzodioxathiepin 3-oxide), a pesticide that is highly toxic to aquatic organisms, is widely used in the cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) industry in Australia and is a risk to the downstream riverine environment. We used the GLEAMS model to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of management scenarios aimed at minimizing endosulfan transport in runoff at the field scale. The field management scenarios simulated were (i) Conventional, bare soil at the beginning of the cotton season and seven irrigations per season; (ii) Improved Irrigation, irrigation amounts reduced and frequency increased to reduce runoff from excess irrigation; (iii) Dryland, no irrigation; (iv) Stubble Retained, increased soil cover created by retaining residue from the previous crop or a specially planted winter cover crop; and (v) Reduced Sprays, a fewer number of sprays. Stubble Retained was the most effective scenario for minimizing endosulfan transport because infiltration was increased and erosion reduced, and the stubble intercepted and neutralized a proportion of the applied endosulfan. Reducing excess irrigation reduced annual export rates by 80 to 90%, but transport in larger storm events was still high. Reducing the number of pesticide applications only reduced transport when three or fewer sprays were applied. We conclude that endosulfan transport from cotton farms can be minimized with a combination of field management practices that reduce excess irrigation and concentration of pesticide on the soil at any point in time; however, discharges, probably with endosulfan concentrations exceeding guideline values, will still occur in storm events.     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

A SUCCESSFUL WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAM IN A SEMIARID REGION OF NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Ground water irrigation pumpage of the High Plains Aquifer is controlled at the state level in Texas and Oklahoma but at the regional level in Kansas and Nebraska. Critical declines in the aquifer that threatened the reliability of local public water supply wells prompted Nebraska's Upper Republican Natural Resources District (URNRD) to mandate water restrictions in 1978. Under current regulations, irrigators may not extract more than 1,842 millimeters of water per certified hectare (ha) in any five‐year period. Meter monitoring ensures that irrigators comply with restrictions. Farmers now incorporate irrigation scheduling into their cropping practices in order to meet URNRD controls. This study examines whether irrigators are using ground water efficiently while complying with pumpage limits. Crop irrigation requirements (CIR) from 1986 to 1999 were derived from a water balance approach incorporating Penman‐Monteith evapotranspira‐tion (ET) calculations from weather data supplied by the High Plains Climate Center automated weather station network. A ratio of average water pumped per well to the CIR was developed to verify irrigation efficiency. Results indicate that irrigation applications were less than CIR during most irrigation seasons. Irrigation efficiency increases can be attributed to crop rotations, favorable growing season precipitation, use of ET estimates to schedule irrigation, and water allocations limited to less than all certified hectares.     

ASSESSING INSTREAM FLOWS AND RESERVOIR OPERATIONS ON AN EASTERN IDAHO RWER1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for assessing reservoir management was applied to the historical conflict between winter fish and wildilife flows below Island Park Reservoir on Henrys Fork of the Snake River and the fulfillment of storage water rights. The methodology consists of (1) identifying impacts of flow regulation, (2) quantifying relationships among variables affecting physical reservoir fill, and (3) assessing effects of these discharges on the fulfillment of water rights in the context of a larger system of interrelated reservoirs. Winter (storage season) flows are critical to management of fish and wildlife populations below Island Park Dam, but flow regulation has resulted in decreased winter discharge. Allowable winter flows are a function of inflow, length of storage season, reservoir content at the start of storage season, and potential for downstream capture of excess storage season water discharged at Island Park. Modeling results indicate that winter flows in the range of those recommended for fish and wildlife management are attainable during average years but not during years when initial reservoir content is low. The methodology was successful in quantifying information useful to decision makers in a variety of agencies and disciplines and could be applied to solve water management problems on other regulated river systems.     

Hydrodynamic Modeling Improves Green River Reconnection with Floodplain Wetlands for Endangered Fish Species Recovery

We performed two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modeling to aid recovery of the endangered razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) by reconnecting the Green River with its historic bottomland floodplain wetlands at Ouray National Wildlife Refuge, Utah. Reconnection allows spring flood flows to overtop the river levee every two to three years, and passively transport razorback sucker larvae to the wetlands to grow in critical habitat. This study includes (1) river hydrologic analysis, (2) simulation of a levee breach/weir, overtopping of river flood flows, and 2D flow through the wetlands using Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System 2D, and (3) modeling flow and restoration scenarios. Indicators of hydrologic alteration were used to evaluate river flow metrics, in particular flood magnitudes, frequency, and duration. Results showed a target spring flow of 16,000 cfs (453 m³/s) and a levee breach elevation of 4,663 ft (1,421 m) amsl would result in a median flow >6,000 acre‐feet (7.4 million m³) over five days into the wetlands, which is adequate for razorback sucker larvae transport and rearing. Modeling of flow/restoration scenarios showed using gated water control structures and passive low‐water crossings between wetland units can provide adequate control of flow movement into and storage in multiple units. Levee breaching can be a relatively simple, cost‐effective method to reconnect rivers and historic floodplains, and hydrodynamic modeling is an important tool for analyzing and designing wetland reconnection.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

Comparison of Aquifer Sustainability Under Groundwater Administrations in Oklahoma and Texas1

Mittelstet, Aaron R., Michael D. Smolen, Garey A. Fox, and Damian C. Adams, 2011. Comparison of Aquifer Sustainability Under Groundwater Administrations in Oklahoma and Texas. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐8. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00524.x Abstract: We compared two approaches to administration of groundwater law on a hydrologic model of the North Canadian River, an alluvial aquifer in northwestern Oklahoma. Oklahoma limits pumping rates to retain 50% aquifer saturated thickness after 20 years of groundwater use. The Texas Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District’s (GCD) rules limit pumping to a rate that consumes no more than 50% of saturated thickness in 50 years, with reevaluation and readjustment of permits every 5 years. Using a hydrologic model (MODFLOW), we simulated river‐groundwater interaction and aquifer dynamics under increasing levels of “development” (i.e., increasing groundwater withdrawals). Oklahoma’s approach initially would limit groundwater extraction more than the GCD approach, but the GCD approach would be more protective in the long run. Under Oklahoma rules more than half of aquifer storage would be depleted when development reaches 65%. Reevaluation of permits under the Texas Panhandle GCD approach would severely limit pumping as the 50% level is approached. Both Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle GCD approaches would deplete alluvial base flow at approximately 10% development. Results suggest periodic review of permits could protect aquifer storage and river base flow. Modeling total aquifer storage is more sensitive to recharge rate and aquifer hydraulic conductivity than to specific yield, while river leakage is most sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity followed by specific yield.     

INTERPRETATION OF “RESTRICTED VALIDITY” IRRIGATION PERMITS IN THE SVARTÅ RIVER BASIN,SWEDEN1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation permits in the Svartå River basin, Sweden, are issued with restricted validities by which irrigation is permitted only in those periods when the release from the primary regulation facility in the basin is greater than 2.0 m³/s. A “risk” measure describing the expected total duration of periods in which irrigation will not be permitted in the basin under a range of conditions has been formulated and applied to the basin. The measure recognizes only the period for which irrigation is not permitted and does not consider water availability as it is not a factor in this case. Comparison of the measure with a previously proposed approach shows that it provides a better measure of system behavior. The new measure is particularly useful for transferring to the nontechnical water user or manager an understanding of how well the overall irrigation system can be expected to perform.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.