Adaptive management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. To successfully implement the adaptive management cycle, different steps (planning, designing, learning and adjusting) need to be systematically implemented to inform earlier steps in an iterative way. Despite the critical role that adaptive management is likely to play in addressing the impacts of climate change on marine mega-fauna few managers have successfully implemented an adaptive management approach. We discuss the approaches necessary to implement each step of an adaptive management cycle to manage marine mega-fauna in a changing climate, highlighting the steps that require further attention to fully implement the process. Examples of sharks and rays (Selachimorpha and Batoidea) on the Great Barrier Reef and little penguins, Eudyptula minor, in south-eastern Australia are used as case studies. We found that successful implementation of the full adaptive management cycle to marine mega-fauna needs managers and researchers to: (1) obtain a better understanding of the capacity of species to adapt to climate change to inform the planning step; (2) identify strategies to directly address impacts in the marine environment to inform the designing step; and (3) develop systematic evaluation and monitoring programs to inform the learning step. Further, legislation needs to flexible to allow for management to respond.     

Coastal and riverine ecosystems as adaptive flood defenses under a changing climate

Adaptation planning for flood risk forms a significant part of global climate change response. Engineering responses to higher water levels can be prohibitively costly. Several recent studies emphasize the potential role of ecosystems in flood protection as adaptive risk reduction measures while also contributing to carbon fixation. Here, we use a conceptual model study to illustrate the built-in adaptive capability of ecosystems to reduce a wide range of wave heights, occurring at different water levels, to a narrower range. Our model shows that wave height of waves running through a forested section is independent of initial height or of water level. Although the underlying phenomenon of non-linear wave attenuation within coastal vegetation is well studied, implications of reducing variability in wave heights for design of ecosystem and levee combinations have not yet been properly outlined. Narrowing the range of wave heights by a vegetation field generates an adaptive levee that is robust to a whole range of external conditions rather than only to a maximum wave height. This feature can substantially reduce costs for retrofitting of levees under changing future wave climates. Thereby, in wave prone areas, inclusion of ecosystems into flood defense schemes constitutes an adaptive and safe alternative to only hard engineered flood risk measures.     

Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China

Water scarcity in China would possibly be aggravated by rapid increase in water demand for irrigation due to climate change. This paper focuses on the mechanism of climate change impact on regional irrigation water demand by considering the dynamic feedback relationships among climate change, irrigation water demand and adaptation measures. The model in implemented using system dynamics approach and employed in Baojixia irrigation district located in Shaanxi Province of China to analyses the changes in irrigation water demand under different climate change scenarios. Obtained results revealed that temperature will be the dominant factor to determine irrigation water demand in the area. An increase of temperature by 1 °C will result in net irrigation water demand to increase by about 12,050?×?10⁴ m³ and gross water demand by about 20,080?×?10⁴ m³ in the area. However, irrigation water demand will not increase at the same rate of temperature rise as the adaptation measures will eventually reduce the water demand increased by temperature rise. It is expected that the modeling approach presented in this study can be used in adopting policy responses to reduce climate change impacts on water resources.     

Gaps in the capacity of modern forage crops to adapt to the changing climate in northern Europe

The within-species diversity in response to weather and the gaps in the response diversity in the modern set of forage crop cultivars were determined using an approach that assessed the adaptive capacity under global climate change. The annual dry matter (DM) yields were recorded in multi-location MTT (Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus) Agrifood Research Official Variety Trials in Finland for modern forage crop cultivars from 2000 to 2012, as a response to agroclimatic variables critical to yield based on the year-round weather data. The effect and interaction of cultivars and agroclimatic variables were analysed using mixed model. The relatively low adaptive capacity of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis Huds.) indicates that diversification of the breeding material is warranted, particularly for resistance to high temperatures during primary growth and to high temperature sum 7 days after the first cut. All red clover cultivars (Trifolium pratense L.) suffered from both low and high accumulation of warm winter temperatures. Except for the red clover cultivars, cold stress during winter and lack of warm winter temperatures consistently reduced the yields of all species and cultivars. All tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) cultivars suffered from low precipitation during the fall hardening period. Although the set of festulolium (Festulolium pabulare) cultivars was also sensitive to low precipitation during the fall, festulolium was a good example of enhanced capacity to adapt to climate change with high response diversity because the cultivar germplasm base was diversified. Foreign origin in a cultivar pool was apparently not sufficient or necessary to ensure added value for a diversity of responses to climate change. Similar analyses to those used in this study, applied as practical tools for breeders, farmers and public actors, are important to secure the adaptive capacity of crops worldwide under global climate change.     

Minimizing changing climate impact on buildings using easily and economically feasible earth to air heat exchanger technique

The biggest challenge of the 21st century is to satisfy the escalating demand of energy and minimize the globally changing climate impact. Earth to air heat exchanger (EAHE) system can effectively reduce heating affects on buildings. An experimental study was carried out by designing EAHE system using low cost building materials like Bamboo (Bambuseae) and hydraform (cement and soil plaster) to reduce the energy consumption of buildings and minimize the impact of climate change. This system utilizes earth’s constant subterranean temperature for naturally heating or cooling the inlet air. This study was carried out in the North Eastern part of India. An open loop EAHE system was developed to predict the heating and cooling potential of the system. Within the system locally available bamboos were used for constructing the tunnel pipes and soil-cement mixture plaster was used to enhance the conductivity of the bamboo pipes. Soil-cement mixtures are capable of decreasing the humidity by 30 to 40 %. Majority of the North Eastern region of India, have humid climatic conditions through out the year. Experiment was performed continuously for 7 days and the result shows that irrespective to the inlet air temperature (ranges from 35 °C to 42 °C), outlet air temperature was recorded between 25 °C and 26 °C, which shows the effectiveness of the system. After a series of experimental analysis the study reveals that underground tunnel based fresh air delivery system is one of the easily feasible and economically feasible techniques which can drastically reduce the energy consumption of the buildings and help in addressing the continuously escalating demand of power and minimizing the impact of changing climatic conditions on buildings.     

Soil carbon sequestration in a changing global environment

Throughout its long history the Earth has undergone warm periods with high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), and has responded with different buffering mechanisms whereby atmospheric C has been transferred to other geochemical compartments. Strategies for the mitigation and adaptation to the current climatic forcing may thus be generated by the acceleration of such natural mechanisms, especially those involved in short cycles, mainly in the biosphere and the pedosphere. Although these contain smaller C stocks than other compartments (< 0.01% of the total C), they circulate large amounts of C from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and mineral weathering (e.g., 120 Pg C are circulated through terrestrial ecosystems and total C in the atmospheric compartment is 805 Pg C). Increased C sequestration can thus be achieved in terrestrial ecosystems, by: (1) favouring growth of biomass; (2) promoting and facilitating carbonation processes; (3) reducing erosion and favouring pedogenesis; (4) developing organic matter-rich horizons; (5) recovering degraded or contaminated soils, and/or (6) managing waste by use of systems that minimize emissions of GHG. Within the latter option, the following actions are considered here in more detail: 1) production of Technosols, and 2) production of biochar. All of the above options should form part of a strategy for the mitigation and adaptation to global climate change. In this review, we analyze those focused on promoting soil conservation, soil restoration and soil formation.     

Water quality in rice-growing watersheds in a Mediterranean climate

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) agriculture is estimated to cover 161 million ha of land on Earth, with 10% grown in temperate regions. Currently there are strong concerns about surface water nutrient pollution, and the purpose of this study was to determine the impacts of temperate rice cultivation on nutrient dynamics at the small watershed scale. Over the course of the 2008 growing season (May through September), bi-weekly grab samples were collected from outlets of 11 agricultural subwatersheds in California. Samples were analyzed for NO₃-N, NH₄-N, PO₄-P, K, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations, and the average values across all subwatersheds and sampling dates were 0.22, 0.031, 0.047, 1.36, and 0.32 mg L⁻¹, respectively. Linear mixed effects analysis was used to evaluate the magnitude of relationships between nutrient concentration and flux and subwatershed characteristics (i.e. percent soil clay and organic matter, percent rice area, irrigation water reuse, subwatershed discharge, irrigated area, and time, measured as the day in the growing season). For all nutrients, flux decreased over time and increased with discharge. Concentrations of K and DON were highest at the start and end of the growing season. Concentrations of NH₄-N were near non-detect levels, with the exception of a peak in mid-July, which corresponds to when many growers top-dress rice fields with N fertilizer. Nitrate-N concentration and flux decreased with percent rice area, whereas PO₄-P concentrations increased with percent rice area, indicating that rice area should be considered in future watershed-scale studies of nutrient discharge. In all subwatersheds, the discharge loads of K were smaller than surface water input loads, while NO₃-N, NH₄-N, PO₄-P, and DON discharge loads exceeded input loads when total growing season discharge was greater than 3500-6600 m³ ha⁻¹. This implies that the management of subwatershed discharge can be used to control nutrient export from rice-growing areas.     

Policy options in a worst case climate change world

Climatic changes more rapid and extreme than assessed by the IPCC cannot be excluded, because of the possibility of positive earth system feedbacks and thresholds. Do today’s policy makers have to take these into account, and if so, are the options different from those considered today? The paper briefly summarizes the types of extreme climatic changes noted in the literature and then evaluates the options to address them in a what-if manner. Different from other studies, which usually look at only one type of measure, we consider a broader portfolio of options: drastic emissions reduction programmes, drawing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (“carbon dioxide removal”), “emergency cooling” through influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere (“solar radiation management”), and finally adaptation beyond the options considered seriously today. Politics will have to decide on the choice or mix of “emergency” measures, but research can ensure that such decisions are based on the best scientific information. If through concerted international efforts to mitigate greenhouse emissions low stabilization levels could be reached, such decisions may never have to be made. However, research in support of some form of a “plan B” is now warranted, focusing on those options that have the most positive ratio between potential effectiveness and feasibility on the one hand, and environmental and political risks on the other hand. Such plan should not be limited to one set of options such as geo-engineering and should explicitly take into account not only the relationships between the options but also the wide variety in characteristics of the individual options in terms of effectiveness, feasibility, environmental risks, and political implications.     

电力使用小检测

<正>通过以下十个多项选择题,考考你对电力损耗了解多少。走进任何一个普通家庭,你都能发现电力吸血鬼。所谓电力吸血鬼是指我们家庭中的一些电器设备,即使在关机的情况下,仍然从国家电网上持续吸取固定量的电流。这些电器设备是靠备用电源来运行的,这就意味着即使不被使用也要吸取电力。我们家庭中的计算机、电视、手机充电器,甚至电动牙刷等电器设备都被定义为电力吸血鬼。     

Modeling increased demand of energy for air conditioners and consequent CO2 emissions to minimize health risks due to climate change in India

Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ～750,000 GWh to ～1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO₂ emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO₂ emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Import demand for Brazilian ethanol: a cross-country analysis

This study presents an empirical analysis of the import demand for Brazilian ethanol by its six major foreign buyers. The primary objectives of this study were to identify the economic factors affecting the demand for ethanol imports and to derive long-run price and income elasticities of import demand. These elasticities could be used to analyze the impact of government policies such as mandatory gasoline/ethanol blends and import tariffs. Import demand models were estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS), using quarterly time series data for the 1997–2007 time period. The results suggest that the factors influencing the import demand for ethanol vary across countries. Markets adopting mandatory blends of renewable fuels tend to have less price elastic import demand schedules. Ethanol imports were found to be price elastic and statistically significant in the Caribbean region (?1.66), Mexico (?2.08), Japan (?1.44) and Nigeria (?1.38), while import demand was price inelastic and not statistically different from zero in the US (?0.76) and Europe (?0.21). The regression results could not determine the impacts of import tariffs for the United States, Mexico and Nigeria on the quantity of imports because tariffs did not vary during the time period studied. Results show that mandatory gasoline/ethanol blends have been an important determinant of ethanol imports.     

Tree rings,a record of seasonal variations in past climate

The width and other characteristics of the growth layers in trees provide valuable information on past variations in climate. Not only can past climate be deduced from past growth, but computers can be used to calibrate the tree growth with climate and to obtain quantitative estimates or reconstructions of the climatic variables in the past from the measurements of ring widths. Large arrays of many tree-ring chronologies exhibit large-scale spatial anomalies in growth. These anomalies can be converted by means of the calibration equations into large-scale reconstructions of spatial anomalies in climate. In this way a map is produced of climatic conditions for individual seasons within each year as far back in time as tree-ring data are available for the sites used for calibration. Some of the biological and physical phenomena that influence the climatic records are described, and the unique opportunities provided by tree-ring analysis of climate are summarized.     

The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land-climate systems to assess how changes in electricity and land use, induced by climate change mitigation, impact on water demand under alternative socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and water policy assumptions (irrigation of bioenergy crops, cooling technologies for electricity generation). The impacts of climate change mitigation on cumulated global water demand across the century are highly uncertain, and depending on socioeconomic and water policy conditions, they range from a reduction of 15,000 km³ to an increase of more than 160,000 km³. The impact of irrigation of bioenergy crops is the most prominent factor, leading to significantly higher water requirements under climate change mitigation if bioenergy crops are irrigated. Differences in socioeconomic drivers and fossil fuel availability result in significant differences in electricity and bioenergy demands, in the associated electricity and primary energy mixes, and consequently in water demand. Economic affluence and abundance of fossil fuels aggravate pressures on water resources due to higher energy demand and greater deployment of water intensive technologies such as bioenergy and nuclear power. The evolution of future cooling systems is also identified as an important determinant of electricity water demand. Climate policy can result in a reduction of water demand if combined with policies on irrigation of bioenergy, and the deployment of non-water-intensive electricity sources and cooling types.     

Electricity sector reform in Mozambique: a projection into the poverty and social impacts

The Government of Mozambique, in step with global trends, has embarked on a process of regulatory and structural reform of its electricity sector with support from the World Bank. The reform which is part of the Energy Reform and Access Programme (ERAP) aims to increase efficiency of the electricity distribution services, as well as expand access mainly in the urban and peri-urban areas. This paper takes a closer look at the basis for the reform, as well as a projection into the likely poverty and social impacts of this process on the poor. The paper draws mainly from secondary literature from Latin America, Africa and Asia to compare and contrast the presence of needed critical success factors from past experiences, if the reform is to deliver on its objectives. In conclusion, the paper makes recommendations on how the process could be adjusted to deliver on poverty and social objectives in line with the government framework, as set out in the Action Plan for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (PARPA 2001–2005).     

美国迎来核电复苏

自1973年美国发放最后一张核电营业执照以来，33年没有发放过新的。而1979年的美国三里岛、1986年俄罗斯切尔诺贝利核电事故，更是让美国对核电建设持谨慎态度。近年来，国际油价持续飙升，能源市场变幻莫测，美面临严峻的能源压力，不得不重新考虑进行核电建设，以缓解能源短缺。2005年布什总统签署的能源法案，为新建核电开了绿灯。美国核电正在迎来复苏。