Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

鞍山市大气尘和金属元素沉降通量及污染特征

通过采集鞍山市11个点位的降尘样品以及土壤样品,用ICP-MS分析了Cu、Mn、Zn、Pb等元素含量,并计算其沉降通量。结果表明,鞍山地区大气降尘的沉降通量为2.92～59.8g/(m2.month),其中鞍钢厂区沉降通量均值为31.6g/(m2.month),分别是周边地区和对照地区的4.72倍和10.5倍。重金属As、Cr、Pb和Cd的沉降通量分别为3.78、45.5、42.8、0.457g/(hm2.month)。降尘中各元素的富集系数为0.29～190,其中Cu、Fe、Zn、Mo、Cd、Pb和Se的富集系数大于10,说明这些元素主要来自于人为源。鞍钢厂区土壤中Cu、Pb、Mn、Zn、Mo、Cd、Ca、Fe和Se的含量较辽宁省土壤背景值高,说明其土壤环境已经受到了人类活动的影响。     

Trace element contamination in industrial regions of Poland studied by moss monitoring

The use of terrestrial mosses as biomonitors in large-scalemulti-element studies of heavy metal deposition from theatmosphere is a well established technique in Europe. Insuch studies it is advantageous to determine as many elements as possible in order to distinguish betweendifferent source categories. A combination of INAA and AAShas been found very useful in this respect, in particularwhen epithermal activation is used for instrumental neutronactivation analysis. A total of 33 elements (Al, Cl, Sc, V,Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Br, Rb, Sr, Ag, Cd, Sb,I, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Tb, Yb, Hf, Ta, W, Au, Pb, Th, and U) inPleurozium schreberi (Brid.) Mitt. moss samples fromthe Silesia-Kraków Industrial Region and Legnica-GogówCopper Basin and from the control (background) area inNortheast Poland were identified. The highest concentrationsof the majority of trace elements were found in mossesgrowing in the Silesia-Kraków Industrial Region, only Cu andAs concentrations were higher in mosses in the Legnica-Gogów Copper Basin. These results are in conformity withthe load of trace elements emissions in these areas.     

微风下异龙湖悬浮物沉降与再悬浮研究

在微风或无风条件下,采用沉积物捕获器和Gansith公式对异龙湖水体中颗粒物沉降和再悬浮进行了研究。结果表明:在微风或无风状态下,底泥再悬浮对水体悬浮物含量贡献较大;描述底泥再悬浮的动态过程需要的合适监测时间为48 h。     

太湖大气氮、磷干湿沉降特征

于2018年1—12月,采集太湖湖滨及湖面共计9个点位600多个干湿沉降样品,估算了N、P干、湿沉降率以及全太湖2018年N、P干、湿沉降通量。结果表明,2018年太湖TN和TP月湿沉降率均值分别为161. 2和7. 1 kg/(km~2·月),TN和TP月干沉降率均值分别为103. 6和4. 5 kg/(km~2·月)。TN和TP年干沉降率空间分布规律为:湖面之上开阔水域处的TN和TP年干沉降率大于其他湖滨点位,TN和TP总沉降通量为7 702和333 t/a。2018年相比于2002—2003年,TN和TP总沉降通量分别降低了22. 6%和53. 8%。     

15年实测氮沉降下竹仙洞小流域土壤酸化研究

以2000—2015年珠海竹仙洞水库小流域湿地松林、台湾相思林和灌木丛为样本,对其土壤属性指标进行相关性分析和主成分分析。结果表明,经过15年自然演替,3个群落的土壤可交换酸度呈下降趋势,其中台湾相思林和灌木丛酸度降低达到显著或极显著水平,受Al³⁺含量影响较大;3个群落的可交换Mg²⁺、K⁺、Na⁺在两种土层均有不同程度的显著下降,而可交换Ca²⁺的变化仅在台湾相思林中显著;总氮、总碳含量均呈上升趋势。主成分分析显示,台湾相思林的生物量丰富、土壤腐殖质多,固氮作用强,故对氮沉降的酸缓冲能力更强。     

Hydrochemistry of Wet Atmospheric Precipitation Over an Urban Area in Northern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Rain water samples were collected to study the chemical composition of wet atmospheric precipitation (first event) over the Lucknow city in the northern Indo-gangetic alluvial plains. The samples were collected in the month of July, 2005 from different sites. The wet precipitation samples were analyzed for pH, EC, major ions (, Cl⁻, , , , F⁻, Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, ) and heavy metals (As, Cd, Al, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Hg, Pb, Se, Sn, Ti, V, Zn). The pH values of wet precipitation samples ranged between 6.5 and 8.7. The analysis of linear regression applied to the set of studied variables and computation of neutralization factors showed that neutralization occurred in precipitation samples and Ca²⁺ had the maximum neutralization capacity. It was found that Cl⁻, , Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and K⁺ in the precipitation samples originated mainly from crustal/anthropogenic sources in the region. On an average Fe, and Al accounted for >72% of the total concentration of trace metals in the wet precipitation samples followed by Zn (>10%). Enrichment factors calculated for heavy metals over reference background level in seawater and Earth’s crust showed relatively higher enrichment of Zn. The principal component analysis (PCA) identified the possible sources of ionic species and heavy metals in the wet precipitation samples.     

重庆市主城区大气水溶性离子在线观测分析

2015年12月—2016年3月期间,利用在线气体与气溶胶成分监测仪(IGAC)在重庆市大气超级站开展连续观测分析,并捕捉到2次持续时间较长的空气重污染过程。对PM_(2.5)中9种水溶性离子及5种气态前体物的观测结果分析表明:NO_3~-、NH_4~+和SO_4~(2-)是重庆市主城区PM_(2.5)中主要的水溶性离子成分,其浓度均表现出明显的日变化特征,主要以(NH4)_2SO_4和NH_4NO_3的形式存在。NH_3和SO_2是最主要的气态污染物。2次重污染过程的水溶性离子组分有明显差异,细颗粒物累积型污染的NH_4~+、SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-浓度高,二次转化十分明显;春节期间烟花爆竹集中燃放,Cl~-、K~+浓度高,主要属于一次排放;污染期间主要离子组分的同源性特征显著。     

潘集矿区塌陷水域水质评价及其综合利用

采煤塌陷水域是淮南潘集矿区一种特殊的地表水体.为了对潘集矿区塌陷水域进行水质评价和提供水资源综合利用的理论基础,选择了潘一矿区典型的两个塌陷水域,采用格网法布设39个采样点对水质进行全面采样监测,分析了水体的重金属元素和部分理化指标并运用数学模糊综合评判法对水质进行了评价.结果表明,封闭性较好的l'水域水质由水体中间向两岸呈递减趋势,中间断面水质为Ⅲ类;与泥河连通的2#水域水质较差,所有监测断面水质均为Ⅳ、Ⅴ类.由于矿业污染源的影响,导致2#水域的重金属元素污染强度高于1#水域.各塌陷水域均已受到不同程度污染,然而丰富的塌陷水资源若合理保护和综合开发利用可带来显著的环境效益和经济效益.     

灰霾期间武汉城市区域大气污染物的理化特征

利用湖北省大气复合污染自动监测站2013年的全年监测数据,分析了灰霾期间武汉城市区域大气污染物的理化特征。霾日主要出现在春季、秋季和冬季。霾日与非霾日大气污染物质量浓度和气象参数的对比分析结果显示:高湿度、静风是武汉城市区域霾日的重要气象特征;PM1、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、CO、NH3的质量浓度,SOR、NOR值以及PM_(2.5)中的二次无机离子(SO2-4、NO-3、NH+4)和部分元素(Pb、Se、Cd、Zn、K)的质量浓度均在霾日明显高于非霾日,而霾日SO2质量浓度仅在冬季略高于非霾日。选取2013年1月的连续灰霾日进行相关性分析,结果表明:污染组分主要来自当地排放(包括直接排放和二次形成),并受当地气象条件影响。此次灰霾过程中PM_(2.5)中的硫酸盐和硝酸盐主要来自气相反应,气态NO_2主要生成了气态HNO_3,而不是HNO_2。     

青岛近岸海域生态环境质量综合评价

基于国外近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价方法,结合国内海洋环境质量评价的研究现状,由生物、水质、沉积物指标和栖息地变化情况构成青岛近岸海域生态环境质量综合评价指标体系,并选取合适的评价模型,同时通过研究海域主要污染物的分布情况对评价结果进行反向验证。结果表明,青岛近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价等级为一般,受人为扰动的影响较大;该方法能够较好地反映主要的人为环境压力和风险因子,同时对潜在的污染因子有一定的预警作用。     

国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价方法及应用示范

以国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价为目标,综合应用德尔菲法、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,构建了国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价方法,并确定了评价因子、权重系数、计算方法。该方法评价指标共分为三层:第一层为目标层,即国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量;第二层为准则层,包括人员及资质、现场监测、实验室管理、报告编制及数据上报;第三层为方案层,包括人员操作、持证上岗、资质认定、人员培训、水质布点采样流转情况、空气自动站运维情况、现场质控实施情况、实验室环境条件、样品试剂的保存与管理、仪器检定与校准、实验室质量控制实施情况、数据填报软件运行情况、监测报告规范性等13个评价要素。经矩阵一致性检验确定了各评价要素的权重,将该权重与各要素得分运算后得到县域环境监测质量评价结果。在此基础上,选取广东、山西、陕西、四川和青海等5个省份的15个国家重点生态功能区县域作为典型区开展了实地调研,并应用评价体系对其进行了监测质量等级评价。结果表明,15个典型县域中,环境监测质量等级为优的县域占13.3%,一般、较差的县域分别占66.7%、20%。县域环境监测承担单位在资质、报告编制及数据上报方面表现较好,在现场监测、人员操作方面问题突出,在实验室管理方面有待提升。     

射电望远镜项目周边地区土地利用结构合理度评价

以射电望远镜(FAST)项目周边的平塘县、罗甸县为研究区域,利用遥感数据和“3S”技术手段,结合相关统计资料,从土地利用结构系统、土地利用程度系统、土地利用效益系统、土地利用可持续系统4个方面,选取18个指标构建土地利用结构合理度评价指标体系,运用ITOPSIS模型对研究区土地利用结构合理度进行定量评价。结果表明:研究区土地利用结构合理度较低,且存在时空变化差异。2000年、2005年、2013年平均土地利用结构合理度分别为27.45%、29.84%、17.76%,呈先增大后减小波动变化趋势;2000、2005年平塘县土地利用结构合理度均高于罗甸县,2013年略低于罗甸县。     

Performance Evaluation of the SLEUTH Model in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area of Northeastern China

Performance evaluation is crucial for the development and improvement of an urban cellular automata model, such as SLEUTH. In this paper, we employed multiple methods for map comparison and model validation to evaluate the simulation performance of the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Shenyang metropolitan area of China. These multiple methods included the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve statistic, multiple-resolutions error budget, and landscape metrics. They were used to quantitatively examine model performance in terms of the amount and spatial location of urban development, urban spatial pattern and prediction ability. The assessment results showed that SLEUTH performed well in the way of the quantitative simulation of urban growth for this case study. Similar to other urban growth models, however, the simulation accuracy for spatial location of new development at the pixel scale and urban spatial pattern still needs to be improved greatly. These inaccuracies might be attributed to the structure and nature of SLEUTH, local urban development characteristics, and the temporal and spatial scale of its application. Finally, many valuable suggestions had been put forward to improve simulation performance of SLEUTH model for spatial location of urban development in the Shenyang metropolitan area.     

因子分析法在金泉工业园区地下水水质评价中的应用

根据金泉工业园水源地8个不同监测断面的地下水水质监测数据,采用R型因子分析法对园区水源地地下水水质进行综合评价,在研究地下水中13种化学成分间相关关系的基础上,提取4个主因子进行分析计算。结果表明,Cl-、SO24-、总硬度和可溶性固体对第一主因子贡献明显;第二主因子代表指标是Zn;第三主因子代表指标是As;NO3-、氨氮、NO2-对第四主因子贡献显著。对水质进行综合评价后发现,人民渠、海流图河和乌拉壕监测断面处水质类别为V类,其他断面均为IV类。因子分析法从整体上评价了园区水源地地下水的水质现状,分析结果清晰明确,为日后地下水资源的管理与保护提供科学依据。     

1984—2015年太湖地区大气能见度变化遥感监测与评价

研究收集整理了1984—2015年太湖区域342幅Landsat系列卫星遥感影像,利用ENVI软件FLAASH模块计算获取了区域大气能见度均值,通过太湖周边苏州、无锡、常州3市地面自动站能见度监测值加以验证,并在此基础上对1984—2015年该地区大气能见度遥感监测结果进行了分析与评价。研究结果表明：太湖地区在20世纪80年代能见度水平相对较好,20世纪90年代后逐渐下滑,总体呈下降趋势。2015年遥感反演能见度均值为14.80 km,与1984年的21.46 km相比下降了31.05%,下降速率约为0.21 km/a。     

合肥市环巢湖地区种植业面源污染监测与评价

通过2016—2018年在合肥市环巢湖5个县区主要农田周边沟渠中采集水样,监测农田氮磷流失浓度,并评价该区域种植业面源污染状况.结果表明,这3年该区域种植业TN、TP流失的平均质量浓度分别为3.48 mg/L、0.602 mg/L,均高于地表水Ⅴ类水质标准.2016年与2017年TN、TP浓度差异不大,2018年较前两...     

南通钢绳产业区儿童发铅、发锌水平调查与评价

为调查南通市钢绳产业区儿童发铅、发锌水平,对67名5～7岁健康儿童进行了发铅、发锌的检测.结果表明:当地环境因素并没有影响儿童的身体健康.钢绳产业区学龄前儿童发铅和发锌含量的平均值均在正常参考标准值内,儿童发铅超标率为7.5％,远远低于1998年市区儿童的发铅超标率.钢绳产业区与其他地区学龄儿童发铅、发锌的含量也并没有...     

黔西北土法炼锌矿区重金属污染现状及其环境影响评价

在对黔西北土法炼锌四个矿区周围的土壤和植物(蔬菜和作物等)进行全面调查的基础上,对土壤和植物重金属(Zn、Cd、Pb、Cu和As)污染现状进行了监测与初步评价.结果表明,四个土法炼锌矿区除野马川的土壤属于中度污染外,其余全部处于严重污染状态,并且Cd是每个矿区的主要污染元素;土法炼锌矿区周围的蔬菜已全部受到严重污染,综合污染指数在10.83～40.67之间,属于重度污染,蔬菜污染主要以Cd为主,超过国家食品卫生标准54倍;矿区周围其他植物如土豆、玉米和绿肥等中的重金属亦严重超标,主要以Pb污染为主,超过国家食品卫生标准366.75倍.说明矿区土壤中种植作物的生长及食用安全已经受到重金属污染的严重影响,对居民健康构成潜在威胁.     

Evaluation of Three Air Dispersion Models: ISCST2, ISCLT2, and Screen2 for Mercury Emissions in an Urban Area

The goal of this paper is to compare and evaluate the performance of three air quality regulatory models for mercury releases. The models include Industrial Source Complex Short Term model (ISCST2), Industrial Source Complex Long Term model (ISCLT2), and SCREEN2. The evaluation is conducted in multiple point source urban environment using meteorological data, emission inventory and monitoring data for eight stations for the year 1990 to 1992. The performance of the models is evaluated using eight statistical parameters. The comparison of models results for both quarterly and annual averaging periods shows that ISCST2 predictions qualitatively match the observed concentrations; whereas SCREEN2 predicts highest concentrations and ISCLT2 the lowest concentrations. The summary of statistical analysis obtained by using three different methods of observed concentration (Co) and predicted concentrations (Cp) comparison show that the ISCST2 has a better overall performance than ISCLT2 and SCREEN2 models. However, none of the models met the criteria for a reasonable model. Summaries of 95% confidence limits on normalize mean square error (NMSE), geometric mean variance (VG) and geometric mean bias (MG) for each and among model indicate that of the three models, ISCST2 has the best overall performance indicators. Improved model performance may be achieved by incorporating different types of mercury forms into emission rate and air dispersion calculations.