On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: planning for closure from the outset of mining

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use.
The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Comparative assessment of solar photovoltaic panels based on metal-derived hazardous waste,resource depletion,and toxicity potentials

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cells are used to resolve energy security and climate change problems. Although PV panels have long physical lifetimes, they would be eventually replaced by new ones with higher energy efficiency and then changed to waste. Depending on the types of PV cells, waste PV panels have different environmental impact potentials due to different contents of substances. This study assesses and compares hazardous waste, resource depletion, and toxicity potentials from metals in three types of PV modules (i.e., polycrystalline silicon (Si), amorphous Si, and CIGS (copper/indium/gallium/di-selenite) PVs) on per-watt electricity generation basis. Hazardous waste potentials are examined by using metal leachability tests, and resource depletion and toxicity potentials are evaluated by using life cycle impact assessment methods. The polycrystalline Si and CIGS PVs have hazardous waste potentials due to lead (Pb) and cadmium/selenium, respectively, whereas the amorphous Si PV does not. The polycrystalline Si PV has the highest resource depletion potential due primarily to silver; the CIGS PV has the next highest due primarily to selenium; and the amorphous Si PV had the lowest, which is derived primarily from tin and copper. For toxicity potentials, overall the amorphous Si PV had lower potentials, derived primarily from barium/copper/nickel/zinc, than the polycrystalline Si and CIGS PVs of which the toxicity potentials were primarily form copper/lead/nickel/silver and copper/mercury/molybdenum/nickel/silver, respectively. Therefore, waste polycrystalline Si and CIGS PV panels should be recycled and managed with priority, and PV technology development needs to be directed to amorphous Si PV from the material perspective.     

Impact assessment of a hydroelectric project on the flora in the Western Himalayan region based on vegetation analysis and socio-economic studies

This study provides an overview of the impacts of a proposed hydroelectric power project in the Western Himalayan region in India, using a primary database on floristic diversity and vegetation analysis. The remote sensing data revealed that in the submergence zone only mixed deciduous forest that occupies 807.5 ha area and has a wood biomass volume of 4,027,503 m³ is likely to be lost due to impoundment. A total of 165 plant species found in the submergence zone also occur in the influence and free draining catchment area of the project. In the influence zone of the project area only one tree species (Acer oblongum) is found under conservation threat category, which is also present in the free draining catchment of the project. The project affected population (6716 people) residing in the submergence and influence zone depend upon the surrounding forests for fuel wood, fodder, wild edibles etc., and most likely they will settle in the nearby areas, thus mounting more pressure on residual forests of the influence zone for various forest products. Further, from the vegetation analysis it is evident that several tree species (e.g. Lannea coromandelica, Terminalia alata, T. bellerica etc.), may face more pressure from exploitation as they provide a number of useful products and are represented in lower numbers in the forests of the project area. To compensate for the loss of various goods and services provided by the forests falling in the submergence zone and to offset the increased pressure of the project affected families on the forests of influence zone, a biodiversity management plan is suggested incorporating socio-economic considerations.