An inexact dynamic optimization model for municipal solid waste management in association with greenhouse gas emission control

Municipal solid waste (MSW) should be properly disposed in order to help protect environmental quality and human health, as well as to preserve natural resources. During MSW disposal processes, a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) is emitted, leading to a significant impact on climate change. In this study, an inexact dynamic optimization model (IDOM) is developed for MSW-management systems under uncertainty. It grounds upon conventional mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approaches, and integrates GHG components into the modeling framework. Compared with the existing models, IDOM can not only deal with the complex tradeoff between system cost minimization and GHG-emission mitigation, but also provide optimal allocation strategies under various emission-control standards. A case study is then provided for demonstrating applicability of the developed model. The results indicate that desired waste-flow patterns with a minimized system cost and GHG-emission amount can be obtained. Of more importance, the IDOM solution is associated with over 5.5 million tonnes of TEC reduction, which is of significant economic implication for real implementations. Therefore, the proposed model could be regarded as a useful tool for realizing comprehensive MSW management with regard to mitigating climate-change impacts.     

Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Irreversible Investment in Wetlands Preservation: Optimal Ecosystem Restoration Under Uncertainty

The model, a stochastic dynamic program, is used to optimize the timing and type of protective structure under a range of management goals. A wetland can either be optimal for fish or optimal for mammals and waterfowl, but not both. Because credible estimates of the economic values of wetland services do not exist, we treat those values as parameters in a multiobjective analysis and show the decisions implied by alternative valuations. The model is applied to the case of Metzger Marsh, a Lake Erie coastal wetland near Toledo, Ohio, where the decision was made in 1993 to construct an open dike. We find that the optimal decision is robust with respect to varying assumptions about the formation of barrier beaches and the probability of climate change, but that the decision is not robust to assumptions concerning the health of an unprotected Metzger Marsh. The most important source of uncertainty is the biological health of an unprotected wetland.     

Population,Development, and Waste Management in Botswana: Conceptual and Policy Implications for Climate Change

Based on government and other relevant documentation, this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population, development, and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially, the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology, weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations, and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change.     

Community Capacity for Adaptation to Climate-Induced Water Shortages: Linking Institutional Complexity and Local Actors

There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly capacity building are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable.     

Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

Can intensive management increase carbon storage in forests?

A possible response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration is to attempt to increase the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation. One approach to increasing the size of the terrestrial carbon sink is to increase the growth of forests by utilizing intensive forest management practices. This article uses data from the literature and from forest growth and yield models to analyze the impact of three management practices on carbon storage: thinning, fertilization, and control of competing vegetation. Using Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) as example species, results from experiments with computer simulation models suggest that, for these two species, thinning generally does not increase carbon storage and may actually cause a decrease. The exception is thinning of very dense young stands. Fertilization generally increases carbon storage, although the response can be quite variable. The largest gains in carbon storage are likely to come from fertilizing lower-quality sites and from fertilizing thinned or less dense stands. Forests usually show increased growth in response to fertilization over a wide range of ages. Simulation of the growth of loblolly pine indicates that controlling competing vegetation at an early age helps to maximize stand growth and carbon storage. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract number 68-C8-0006 to NSI Technology Inc. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Resource management as a key factor for sustainable urban planning

Due to fast urbanization and increasing living standards, the environmental sustainability of our global society becomes more and more questionable. In this historical review we investigate the role of resources management (RM) and urban planning (UP) and propose ways for integration in sustainable development (SD). RM follows the principle of circular causation, and we reflect on to what extent RM has been an element for urban planning. Since the existence of the first settlements, a close relationship between RM, urbanization and technological development has been present. RM followed the demand for urban resources like water, energy, and food. In history, RM has been fostered by innovation and technology developments and has driven population growth and urbanization. Recent massive resource demand, especially in relation to energy and material flows, has altered natural ecosystems and has resulted in environmental degradation. UP has developed separately in response to different questions. UP followed the demand for improved living conditions, often associated to safety, good manufacturing and trading conditions and appropriate sanitation and waste management. In history UP has been a developing research area, especially since the industrial era and the related strong urbanization at the end of the 18th century. UP responded to new emerging problems in urban areas and became increasingly complex. Nowadays, UP has to address many objectives that are often conflicting, including, the urban sustainability. Our current urban un-sustainability is rooted in massive resource consumption and waste production beyond natural limits, and the absence of flows from waste to resources. Therefore, sustainable urban development requires integration of RM into UP. We propose new ways to this integration.     

A Strategic Framework for Responding to Coral Bleaching Events in a Changing Climate

The frequency and severity of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase as sea temperatures continue to warm under a global regime of rising ocean temperatures. Bleaching events can be disastrous for coral reef ecosystems and, given the number of other stressors to reefs that result from human activities, there is widespread concern about their future. This article provides a strategic framework from the Great Barrier Reef to prepare for and respond to mass bleaching events. The framework presented has two main inter-related components: an early warning system and assessment and monitoring. Both include the need to proactively and consistently communicate information on environmental conditions and the level of bleaching severity to senior decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Managers, being the most timely and credible source of information on bleaching events, can facilitate the implementation of strategies that can give reefs the best chance to recover from bleaching and to withstand future disturbances. The proposed framework is readily transferable to other coral reef regions, and can easily be adapted by managers to local financial, technical, and human resources.     

Environment and development in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Linking climate change with sustainable fisheries development

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, in the last decade, national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However, global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO, and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular, the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental‐based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem‐based approach to fisheries management is a start, as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

Confronting limitations: new solutions required for urban water management in Kunming City

Despite continuous investment and various efforts to control pollution, urban water environments are worsening in large parts of the developing world. In order to reveal potential constraints and limitations of current practices of urban water management and to stimulate proactive intervention, we conducted a material flow analysis of the urban water system in Kunming City. The results demonstrate that the current efficiency of wastewater treatment is only around 25% and the emission of total phosphorous from the city into its receiving water, Dianchi Lake, is more than 25 times higher than its estimated tolerance. With regard to the crisis of water quantity and quality, the goal of a sustainable urban water environment cannot be attained with the current problem-solving approach in the region due to the technical limitations of the conventional urban drainage and treatment systems. A set of strategies is therefore proposed. The urban drainage system in Zurich is used as a reference for a potential best-available technology for conventional urban water management (BAT) scenario in terms of its low combined frequency of sewer overflow.     

秦皇岛市气候变化对可持续发展的影响及对策

秦皇岛市46年来气候变暖变干,年平均气温提高1.8℃,≥10℃年积温增加11.4％,无霜期延长22天,但年平均降水量却减少11.5％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利,对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害,加强水资源的开源节流,发展节水经济和循环经济,发展休闲度假旅游,延长旺季。     

Understanding Conceptual Climate Change Meanings and Preferences of Multi-Actor Professional Leadership in New York

This article sets out to evaluate the range of meanings and preferences for the concepts of adaptation, resilience, mitigation and coping of a variety of professionals in New York who are undertaking leadership positions in developing climate change policies and practices. This article positions a normative set of simplified meanings for each of the aforementioned concepts based on a review of existing literature. Utilizing a survey, these normative meanings are evaluated by and between the: (a) concepts and meanings; (b) concepts and applications and (c) applications and preferences, as applied to various risk-based scenarios ranging from sea-level rise to heat waves. This survey tests the hypotheses that the respondents: (i) are unable to consistently match the concept of resiliency with the normative meanings or applications: and (ii) will not consistently show a preference for resilience applications or outcomes ahead of other concepts. The results of the survey confirm both hypotheses, which is demonstrative of the inadequacy of the current framework dominated by a narrowly defined framework for resilience. It is anticipated that the results of this article will advance an argument for the necessity to develop consistent meanings for concepts which bridge the scientific, policy and popular domains.     

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.