SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Several methods have been developed to interpolate point rainfall data and integrate areal rainfall data from any network of stations. From previous studies, it can be concluded that models for spatial analysis of rainfall are dependent on topography, area of analysis, type of rainfall, and density of gauging network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a set of six appropriate models for point and areal rainfall estimations over a 4000 square mile area in South Florida. In this study, a case of developing spatial continuity model for monthly rainfall from a database that had various lengths of records and missing data is documented. The spatial correlation and variogram models for monthly rainfall were developed. Six methods of spatial interpolation were applied and the results validated with historical observations. The results of the study indicate that the multiquadric, kriging, and optimal interpolation schemes are the best three methods for interpolation of monthly rainfall within the study area. The optimal and kriging methods have the advantage of providing estimates of the error of interpolation. The optimal interpolation method uses the spatial correlation function and the kriging method uses the variogram function. The two spatial functions are related. Either of the two methods provide good estimates of monthly point and areal rainfall in the study area.     

吉东山区总辐射资源的地理空间分布特征

本文以地理纬度、经度和海拔高度为因子,采用二次趋势面函数,建立了描述吉林省东部长白山区年总辐射、5～9月总辐射和日平气温稳定通过10℃期间的总辐射资源的地理空间分布特征的数学模式。采用地理细网格场的分析方法,揭示了该山区总辐射资源的空间分布情况。     

AQUIFER SALINIZATION IN THE YUN‐LIN COASTAL AREA,TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes possible causes of shallow ground water salinization in the coastal area of Yun‐Lin. The local hydro‐geologic setting is determined from geological drilling data and sea floor topography. Three possible causes (sea water intrusion, salt water percolation through wells, and infiltration of salty water from fish ponds) are evaluated. Chloride concentration is used as an index to measure ground water salinization. Sea water intrusion is modeled by the advective/dispersive equation, and salt water infiltration from wells and fish ponds is calculated by estimating the amount of water percolated. The determined local hydrogeologic setting suggests that the shallow aquifer may be connected to the sea water, resulting in salt water intrusion as a large amount of shallow ground water is withdrawn. The percent contributions of sea water intrusion, percolation through wells, and infiltration of water from fish ponds, to the salinization of the shallow aquifer at Ko‐Hu in the Yun‐Lin coastal area are approximately 27 percent, less than 1 percent and 73 percent, respectively. The results suggest that the vertical infiltration of salt water from fish ponds is the major cause of shallow ground water salinization in the coastal area of Yun‐Lin.     

Monitoring the volume and lateral spread of disposed sediments by acoustic methods, Oslo Harbor, Norway

Acoustic equipment, including interferometric sonar and parametric sub-bottom profiler, have been used to determine the volume and lateral spread of dredged sediments disposed in the natural submarine depression in the Bekkelag Basin, inner Oslofjord since the beginning of the Oslo Harbor remediation project in 2006. This natural depression is used as a subaqueous confined disposal facility (CDF). Calculation of the volume of disposed sediments in the CDF is based on elevation change, derived from two high-resolution bathymetric datasets obtained in 2004, i.e. before the onset of the remediation project, and in April 2008. Seismic profiles across the CDF have been used to estimate the settlement of the original seabed, caused by loading-induced dewatering and compaction of the seabed sediments under the disposed masses.Detailed bathymetry and backscatter data demonstrate the lateral spread of disposed sediments within a well-confined area covering ca. 195,000 m². The sea bottom within this area is distinctly softer than the surrounding seabed as shown by very low acoustic backscatter amplitude, signifying a very loose surface character of the disposed sediments. The thickness of the disposed sediments reaches 6 m the deepest part of the original depression. The volume calculation of the disposed sediments in the CDF, based solely on bathymetry data, gives a value of ca. 310,000–320,000 m³. Settlement of the original seabed as a result of loading has been estimated to be 30 cm at 5 m thickness of the disposed sediments. Under the condition that the settlement rate is linearly correlated to the thickness of disposed sediments, the settlement corrected volume of disposed sediments is ca. 330,000–340,000 m³. Presented results demonstrate high accuracy and good reproducibility of acoustic seafloor data, and indicate a great potential of such methods as monitoring tools in environmental projects that involve dredging and subaqueous disposal.     

海洋石油开发周边海域重金属锌的时空分布特征研究

海洋石油开发过程中重金属锌对海洋的影响日益受到关注。依据曹妃甸油田群海域2010—2018年长期海洋环境监测数据,采用克里金插值法和Hakanson生态风险指数法,分析了海域重金属锌的变化趋势、时空分布特征和潜在生态风险,探讨了可能来源并提出减缓措施。结果表明：研究海域海水水质锌呈现先降低后升高的趋势,平均含量2010年5月最高。2010年5月沉积物锌含量为(44.9±14.3)×10^-6低于渤海表层沉积物锌含量背景值(67.6±17.0)×10^-6。各期监测结果显示,油田区域未形成明显锌高值区。陆源排污、河流入海携带、航运、大气湿沉降等是研究海域重金属锌的重要来源。     

Sea-level rise: Destruction of threatened and endangered species habitat in South Carolina

Concern for the environment has increased over the past century, and the US Congress has responded to this concern by passing legislation designed to protect the nation’s ecological biodiversity. This legislation, culminating with the Endangered Species Act of 1973, has been instrumental in defining methods for identifying and protecting endangered or threatened species and their habitats. Current legislation, however, assumes that the range of a protected species will stay constant over time. This assumption may no longer be valid, as the unprecedented increase in the number and concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has the potential to cause a global warming of 1.0–4.5°C and a sea-level rise (SLR) of 31–150 cm by the year 2100. Changes in climate of this magnitude are capable of causing shifts in the population structure and range of most animal species. This article examines the effects that SLR may have on the habitats of endangered and threatened species at three scales. At the regional scale 52 endangered or threatened plant and animal species were found to reside within 3 m of mean sea level in the coastal stages of the US Southeast. At the state level, the habitats of nine endangered or threatened animals that may be at risk from future SLR were identified. At the local level, a microscale analysis was conducted in the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina, USA, on the adverse effects that SLR may have on the habitats of the American alligator, brown pelican, loggerhead sea turtle, and wood stork. Prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA; managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems. Inc. for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400.     

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida1

Guha, Hillol and Sorab Panday, 2012. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 510-529. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00630.x Abstract: Freshwater resources of coastal communities in the United States and world over are threatened by the rate of sea level rise. According to recent estimates by various governmental agencies and climate researchers, the global sea level rise is likely to be between 0.6 and 2.1 m by the year 2100. South Florida is a coastal community and much of its coastline is subject to sea level rise and potential impacts to wetlands and the water resources of the area. To understand what the impact of sea level rise would cause to the groundwater level and salinity intrusion, an integrated groundwater and surface water model was developed for North Miami-Dade and Broward Counties of South Florida. The model was calibrated against daily groundwater heads, base flows in canals, and chloride concentrations for a period of one year and six months. Three separate sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the sea level by 0.6, 0.9, and 1.22 m. Results of the simulations shows increase of groundwater heads in some areas from 4 to 15%; whereas the average relative chloride concentrations increased significantly by 100-600% in some wells. The increase in groundwater elevations and chloride concentrations varies from location of the wells and its proximity to the coast. The model results indicate that even a 0.6 m increase in sea level (which is the conservative estimate) is likely to impair the vital freshwater resources in many parts of South Florida.     

CLIMATE CHANGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND INTERACTIONS IN WETLANDS OF THE UNTTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that this trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea‐level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuanne wetlands, peat lands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothole wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peat‐lands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea‐level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.     

Application of a new leaf area index algorithm to China's landmass using MODIS data for carbon cycle research

An operational system was developed for mapping the leaf area index (LAI) for carbon cycle models from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The LAI retrieval algorithm is based on Deng et al. [2006. Algorithm for global leaf area index retrieval using satellite imagery. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 44, 2219-2229], which uses the 4-scale radiative transfer model [Chen, J.M., Leblancs, 1997. A 4-scale bidirectional reflection model based on canopy architecture. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 35, 1316-1337] to simulate the relationship of LAI with vegetated surface reflectance measured from space for various spectral bands and solar and view angles. This algorithm has been integrated to the MODISoft platform, a software system designed for processing MODIS data, to generate 250 m, 500 m and 1 km resolution LAI products covering all of China from MODIS MOD02 or MOD09 products. The multi-temporal interpolation method was implemented to remove the residual cloud and other noise in the final LAI product so that it can be directly used in carbon models without further processing. The retrieval uncertainties from land cover data were evaluated using five different data sets available in China. The results showed that mean LAI discrepancies can reach 27%. The current product was also compared with the NASA MODIS MOD15 LAI product to determine the agreement and disagreement of two different product series. LAI values in the MODIS product were found to be 21% larger than those in the new product. These LAI products were compared against ground TRAC measurements in forests in Qilian Mountain and Changbaishan. On average, the new LAI product agrees with the field measurement in Changbaishan within 2%, but the MODIS product is positively biased by about 20%. In Qilian Mountain, where forests are sparse, the new product is lower than field measurements by about 38%, while the MODIS product is larger by about 65%.     

Potential coastal impacts of contemporary changing climate on South Asian seas states

The threat of man-induced global change on the nations of the South Asian seas region varies from place to place because of differences in exposure to monsoons and stoms, differences in local tectonics and subsidence, and variations in air and sea climates. Because several nations are involved, some having subsistence budgets, and given the cost of deriving independently a comprehensive response to global change, the similarities and differences between national settings must be identified soon. These comparisons will form the basis for local response strategies: the similarities provide a basis for responses similar to that of other nations and the differences provide for local adaptation. That climate change on the South Asian coastal region will have an impact is certain: its economics, environment, and coastal land uses are dominated to a certain extent by this marine influence. The extent of these impacts, however, is uncertain. Accompanying global change will be changes in sea level, differences in storm climate, and altered precipitation patterns; science cannot define today what pattern these changes will take. Because global change is inevitable—although its magnitude, timing, and geographic distribution are unknown—the South Asian seas region should begin the appropriate research and planning studies to set forth a reasoned response to global change, for implementation when scientific evidence for global change is more quantitative.     

From Global to Local: Providing Actionable Flood Forecast Information in a Cloud‐Based Computing Environment

Global and continental scale flood forecast provide coarse resolution flood forecast, but from the perspective of emergency management, flood warnings should be detailed and specific to local conditions. The desired refinement can be provided by the use of downscaling global scale models and through the use of distributed hydrologic models to produce a high‐resolution flood forecast. Three major challenges associated with transforming global flood forecasting to a local scale are addressed in this work. The first is using open‐source software tools to provide access to multiple data sources and lowering the barriers for users in management agencies at local level. This can be done through the Tethys Platform that enables web water resources modeling applications. The second is finding a practical solution for the computational requirements associated with running complex models and performing multiple simulations. This is done using Tethys Cluster that manages distributed and cloud computing resources as a companion to the Tethys Platform for web app development. The third challenge is discovering ways to downscale the forecasts from the global extent to the local context. Three modeling strategies have been tested to address this, including downscaling of coarse resolution global runoff models to high‐resolution stream networks and routing with Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID), the use of hierarchical Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) distributed models, and pre‐computed distributed GSSHA models.     

Sociodemographic effects on place bonding

Patterns of amenity migration and recreational home development in much of the USA since the 1990s are changing the local sociodemographic make-up and the relationships formed among people and place. We use the psychological constructs of place attachment, place identity, and place dependence to assess differences in these relationships among new and long-time residents and absentee and local residents in three rural counties in the Inland Northwest. We measured place bonding using data from a mail survey of local (n = 531) and absentee (n = 239) property owners. We compared structural models suggested in the literature on the psychology of place, and found that a two-dimensional model representing place attachment and place identity was appropriate for both local and absentee property owners. Local owners exhibited stronger place attachment and place identity than absentee owners. Place bonding constructs were also substantially less impacted by the total number of years a property owner had resided on his or her property than by the number of months per year they lived on the property. The findings indicate that sociodemographic changes such as those manifested in second-home development may lead to a population that is less emotionally, behaviorally, and cognitively connected to the places in question, while sociodemographic changes from permanent in-migration may have a substantially smaller effect on place bonding.     

秦皇岛地区海陆风特征及其影响

利用本地风的观测资料,分析、总结了秦皇岛地区风的特点。结果表明,秦皇岛因受海陆地形的影响,风的变化具有海陆风的特征,在空间分布上,海陆风只影响到昌黎、抚宁和市区,达不到卢龙、青龙,在时间分布上,海风以昌黎(10点)出现最早,抚宁(12点)次之,市区(14点)最晚,陆风同样以昌黎(20点)出现最早,抚宁(23点)次之,市区(次日2点)最晚。同时,海陆风对秦皇岛地区气温的影响尤为明显,受海风影响,秦皇岛市的夏季不十分炎热,日最高气温比同纬度的内陆地区低很多,成为著名的避暑胜地。另外,由于夏季受海风影响较大,海风登陆带来充沛的水汽,导致7月是秦皇岛地区大雾天气全年最多的月份。     

Spatio-temporal modeling of benthic biological species

The spatial and temporal distribution of the number of benthic species located in an important area under ecological stress (Puerto CALICA, Quintana Roo, Mexico) is analyzed by means of Gaussian Spatial Linear Mixed Models. Following a model-based approach we derive spatial predictions taking into account temporal variations between May 1996 and June 1999. The proposed models were evaluated in terms of their ability to detect the underlying spatial structure for further interpolation. Uncertainty in the prediction could be evaluated by using the Bayesian paradigm. The results can be used as a guide for further environmental management policies in the region.     

COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD QUANTILES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT1

We develop and compare three regression models for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged stream reaches in New Hampshire and Vermont. These models emerge from systematic analysis and validation of relations between flood magnitude and six candidate predictors reflecting basin size, topography, and climate and channel size at 36 gaging stations with record lengths exceeding 20 years. Of the candidate predictors, bank full width is most highly correlated with flood magnitude and the best prediction equation is based on width. Thus channel geometry is closely related to the current hydrologic regime in spite of geologically recent glaciation and apparently non-alluvial bank materials. We also develop models that use information obtainable from maps or GIS. The best of these uses drainage area and drainage-basin elevation as predictors, but it is substantially less precise than the width-based relation. A third relation using only drainage area as a predictor is even less precise but may be useful for some purposes. No other single predictors or combinations yielded useful predictions, although some had been included in previously-established models for the region. Model comparison included examination of residuals generated by regression using one-at-a-time suppression of data points and comparison with precision obtainable with gaging records of varying lengths.     

A comparison of relative abundance versus class data in diatom-based quantitative reconstructions

Relative species abundances are the most frequently applied data type used for modern or paleolimnological diatom studies. In contrast, plant ecologists save time by commonly using ordinal scale data (class data), where the abundance of a species is estimated using dominance classes, instead of relative abundance data. This study compares the performance of models based on ordinal diatom species class data (class 1: sporadic (<0–1%) up to class 6: dominant (>60%)) with similar model types based on relative abundance data for different regional training sets and sediment cores. First, relative diatom abundances were converted into ordinal classes. Species response to total phosphorous (TP) was modelled using both types of data - relative abundance and ordinal class data. Secondly, TP was reconstructed for six sediment cores from North-East Germany, Switzerland, and Denmark using WA and WA-PLS based on both types of data. Thirdly, 20 lake sediment surface samples with known relative diatom abundances and known water TP concentrations were recounted using an ordinal data scale to create an independent test set. No significant differences were found between relative abundance and class data for (1) explained species variance, (2) reconstructed TP values, and (3) inferred TP values of the 20 recounted samples. This approach demonstrates that past TP concentrations may also be reliably reconstructed using class data instead of relative diatom abundances. Thus, by using class data lake managers may not only obtain more long-term records past water quality, but this approach is also quicker and therefore more cost effective. Moreover, the findings of this study may also advance the use of automatic diatom identification with digital image recognition, as we demonstrate that not every damaged diatom valve needs to be identified.     

Interpolating SRTM Elevation Data to Higher Resolution to Improve Hydrologic Analysis

The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) has been a valuable resource for hydrological analysis, providing elevation data at a consistent resolution on a near‐global scale. However, its resolution (three arc‐second or 90 m) is sometimes too low to obtain the desired level of accuracy and precision for hydrologic analysis. We evaluated the performance of several methods for interpolating SRTM three arc‐second data to a 30‐m resolution grid to better represent topography and derive terrain characteristics of the landscape. STRM data were interpolated to 30‐m DEMs on a common grid using spline, inverse distance weighting (IDW), kriging (KR), natural neighbor methods, and cubic convolution (CC) resampling. Accuracy of the methods was assessed by comparing interpolated and resampled 30‐m grids with the reference data. Slope, aspect, sinks, and stream networks were derived for the 30‐m grids and compared on a cell‐by‐cell basis to evaluate their performance in reproducing the derivatives. The comparisons identify spline and KR as the most accurate interpolation methods, of which spline is preferred because of its relative simplicity. IDW provided the greatest bias in all methods with artifacts evident in slope and aspect maps. The performance of CC projection directly to a 30‐m resolution was comparable to spline interpolation, thus is recommended as the most convenient method for interpolating SRTM to a higher resolution.     

“At the water's edge”: community voices on climate change

The photovoice research project, “At the water's edge”, which gives voice to communities exploring the threats and impact of climate change and rising sea levels on coastal communities, was conducted during an environmental art symposium in the Noosa Biosphere Reserve, Australia in June 2009. Photos by participants illustrated both local and global threats and reflected psychological tension between global and local action. This research partnership with the local people demonstrated an innovative visualisation technique which can be used to collaboratively build capacity and consensus about adaptation to climate change. It also contributed to the Biosphere Reserve's educational and cultural aims in relation to climate change.     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

Creating local ecological footprints in a North American context

Many urban areas face conflicts between economic growth and environmental limitations. The ecological footprint is popular for communicating the global impacts of local activities, and if calculated at the local level, should be useful in emphasising the impacts of local planning, engaging community members, and allowing intra-community comparisons. We compare the two dominant methods for local ecological footprints: the compound and component methods. Both fail to adequately represent local footprints in North America. We propose a hybrid component method that takes advantage of the benefits of the component method but incorporates interpolation from the compound method to address data limitations. Grounded in Montreal, Canada, a city currently facing significant conflict between environment and growth, the study applies the hybrid method and discusses its potential benefits and limitations for community activists and planners.