成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车行驶里程调查与分析

研究目的是通过实地调查和统计分析及检验确定成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车的活动水平(用行驶里程表征)及规律,并比较不同地区间的差异。统计表明,成都及周边城市轻型载客汽车的年均行驶里程为1.5~2.0万km/年。其中绵阳和其他城市间的差异比较显著,而其他城市间的差异在绝对值上较小。成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车年均行驶里程随车龄呈递减趋势,以成都市最为明显,而周边其他地区稍差。结果表明,为提高机动车尾气排放清单的准确度,对城市差异较大的不同地区的轻型载客汽车的行驶里程进行分别调查是必要的。     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Projections of highway vehicle population,energy demand,and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two‐wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206‐309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle‐growth and three fuel‐economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle‐growth and fuel‐economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404‐719 million metric tons (8.5‐15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions are projected to be 1.2‐2.2 billion metric tons.     

System dynamic modeling of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.     

Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Financial viability of reforesting reclaimed surface mined lands, the burden of site conversion costs, and carbon payments as reforestation incentives

US Federal law mandates that mined land be returned by mine operators to a condition capable of supporting its pre-mining use or a higher use. Previously forested lands have commonly been reclaimed to hayland/pasture or wildlife habitat, and most of these lands have been abandoned from management and rendered non-productive. This situation has left landowners in the position of converting these reclaimed mined lands to forests at a later date, if they choose to make them economically productive. Such land-use conversion, however, comes with a substantial up-front cost to the landowner, which makes the financial viability of such a conversion questionable. We examine the financial viability of reforestation of these previously reclaimed mine lands by calculating land expectation value (LEV) under a range of conditions that include forest type, site quality, and reforestation intensity. We find that conversion to white pine is viable on higher quality sites under low to moderate interest rates with low or high timber prices, but conversion to mixed hardwoods is only profitable under the high price scenario with low interest rates, and only on higher quality sites. We also consider the implications of a shift in reforestation burden from the landowner to the mine operator, and results suggest that including costs of reforestation as part of the mining operation creates a financially viable forest enterprise for landowners under all scenarios for both white pine and mixed hardwoods. Two forms of carbon payments that could encourage reforestation of previously reclaimed mined lands also are examined: an annual payment based upon the total accumulated carbon found on-site in a given year, and an annual payment based on only the increment of carbon storage each year. Our carbon payment results indicate that annual values of up to $5.17 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $9.39 per ton of carbon stored in pines would be required to make reforestation profitable under the poorest conditions (high interest rates, low prices, and poor quality site) when the payment is based on accumulated on-site carbon, although lower values are required under more favorable scenarios. Payments that are based upon the annual increment of carbon must fall in the range of $8.66–$71.88 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $0–$83.29 per ton of carbon stored in pines to make reforestation financially viable.     

Systematic studies of shop and leisure voucher incentives for household recycling

This work reports on a series of medium scale trials of various voucher based incentives schemes for household recycling carried out in England. They show that increases of 10–20% in participation rates can be achieved with 3-month schemes. The results are drawn from 15 sub-projects carried out in 6 districts where parameters such as voucher value, types of shops used, demographics and community types were varied overall, allowing their effects to be explored. Surprisingly, the results show that the success does not depend on the affluence of the areas. Statistically strong data shows little difference across deprivation indices. Successful schemes were those where the vouchers were awarded on an individual household basis (very important), the value of each voucher was over £1 (€0.60), and the shops or facilities they are valid for were within half a mile (with suggestions from the public that if usable at supermarkets they would travel further). Although some improvements were seen in areas where participation rates were already over 65%, the schemes are more successful in areas which are not already achieving so highly, right down to those below 20%. Although schemes can be designed for maximum effect in small targeted areas, they could also be used on a large scale if e.g. supermarket vouchers were used. The study also reports on the costs of the schemes, which range from £5.15 per household to £12.10 per household over 3 months (including monitoring work). Possible savings of up to 50% are indicated.     

Non-market valuation of off-highway vehicle recreation in Larimer County, Colorado: Implications of trail closures

Few economic studies are available to measure off-highway vehicle recreation benefits foregone when trails must be closed to protect the environment. This paper estimates the non-market benefits associated with off-highway vehicle (OHV) recreation on National Forest lands in Larimer County, Colorado. We use a contingent valuation model (CVM) to estimate benefits to OHV users, which includes dirt bike riders, all terrain vehicle (ATV) riders, and 4-wheel drive (4 × 4) users. Using CVM we find the mean consumer surplus estimates to be $78 per person per day. These results are consistent with the few previous estimates of OHV recreation benefits. This equates to a per trail per summer consumer surplus of at least between $219,467 and $296,876, and a county level surplus per summer to be at least between $796,447 and $1,077,367. These benefits can be compared to environmental costs to obtain a more complete picture of the effects of trail closure, as well as the negative spillovers to non-motorized users.     

Systematic studies of shop and leisure voucher incentives for household recycling

This work reports on a series of medium scale trials of various voucher based incentives schemes for household recycling carried out in England. They show that increases of 10–20% in participation rates can be achieved with 3-month schemes. The results are drawn from 15 sub-projects carried out in 6 districts where parameters such as voucher value, types of shops used, demographics and community types were varied overall, allowing their effects to be explored. Surprisingly, the results show that the success does not depend on the affluence of the areas. Statistically strong data shows little difference across deprivation indices. Successful schemes were those where the vouchers were awarded on an individual household basis (very important), the value of each voucher was over £1 (€0.60), and the shops or facilities they are valid for were within half a mile (with suggestions from the public that if usable at supermarkets they would travel further). Although some improvements were seen in areas where participation rates were already over 65%, the schemes are more successful in areas which are not already achieving so highly, right down to those below 20%. Although schemes can be designed for maximum effect in small targeted areas, they could also be used on a large scale if e.g. supermarket vouchers were used. The study also reports on the costs of the schemes, which range from £5.15 per household to £12.10 per household over 3 months (including monitoring work). Possible savings of up to 50% are indicated.     

Stakeholder Willingness to Pay for Watershed Restoration in Rural Bolivia1

Abstract: Two CVM surveys were administered to 211 urban households and 188 rural farmer‐irrigators in the Comarapa watershed in Bolivia, South America, to estimate stakeholder willingness to pay (WTP) for a proposed upper watershed restoration program. Mean monthly household WTP to improve drinking water was $1.95 (65% of current charges), while mean annual WTP among farmer‐irrigators to improve irrigation water was $17 per hectare (34% of current costs). Aggregated to the entire population of households and farmer‐irrigators total WTP is $77,400 per year, which is 77% of the minimum cost to implement a watershed restoration program.     

基于环境保护的机动车税优化建议

当前区域性大气污染问题突出,机动车使用造成的污染问题不可忽视。为解决区域性的大气污染问题,机动车税费的污染减排调控功能日益被政府和学者重视。研究围绕"如何使机动车税更好发挥环境保护的效果"的问题,比较了中日机动车税的结构和性质,分析了在购买、保有和使用等不同环节的机动车税的特点以及环保效果,并基于问卷调查分析中国私家车主不同环节机动车税的负担情况。研究表明,在机动车使用环节征收的成品油消费税污染调控效果要优于其他环节的税收;对商业用途的机动车使用征税仅有收入功能没有调控功能,建议将机动车相关税的作用重心从购买环节转移到使用环节上,并对商业用途和私人用途的机动车实施差别税率。     

USING CONTINGENT VALUATION AND BENEFIT TRANSFER TO EVALUATE WATER SUPPLY IMPROVEMENT BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: Many water systems in small cities and rural areas throughout the United States are facing water quality and supply problems. These problems are typically not the result of an unexpected event, but are the result of growth trends or decreasing water quality experienced over several years. This analysis uses the contingent valuation and benefit transfer methods to evaluate the willingness to pay for a rural water system in northcentral Montana. Both of the procedures resulted in similar values, ranging from about $4.05 to $7.50 per household per month for urban residents and $5.40 to $11.50 per household per month for rural residents, which is equal to 11 percent to 23 percent of current average water costs. The willingness to pay estimates do not include non-household water users. This analysis shows that useful planning information can be obtained from relatively inexpensive contingent valuation mail survey data and the benefit transfer method as long as the limitations of the data are understood. The willingness to pay for ensuring good quality rural water supplies in the future is likely to be low compared to the costs of extensive diversion and treatment systems. Willingness to pay estimates provide decision makers with information that can be used to avoid building a large water supply system that water users do not want to connect to because of high costs.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Clean fuels from municipal solid waste for fuel cell buses in metropolitan areas

Increasing volumes of municipal solid waste (MSW) pose disposal problems for many cities. Costs are rising as landfilling becomes more difficult. The production of clean transportation fuels (methanol or hydrogen) from MSW is one economically and environmentally promising option for dealing with these problems. An attractive feature is that elimination of essentially all air pollutant emissions is inherent in the process. Current and future air emissions standards should be easily met. Methanol or hydrogen used in fuel cell vehicles (FCV) can help address problems of deteriorating urban air quality due to vehicle pollution and heavy dependence of the transport sector on imported petroleum. Buses are initial targets for commercial application of fuel cells. Coupled with FCVs, MSW could become a major transportation energy resource. For example, less than 25% of New York City's MSW supply would be sufficient to produce the methanol or hydrogen needed to fuel the entire city's bus fleet, if the buses were fuel cell powered. Estimated breakeven tipping fees required for hydrogen or methanol from MSW to compete with the cost of these fuels made from natural gas today are $52 to $89/raw tonne MSW for hydrogen and $64 to $104/raw tonne MSW for methanol (in 1991$), depending on the gasification technology considered. For comparison, the average tipping fee today in New York City is $74/tonne (1991$). Because of the high fuel economies expected for fuel cell buses, total lifecycle costs per bus-km could be lower than for conventional diesel-engine buses.     

MEASURING ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION: AN INVESTIGATION OF HOUSEHOLD AVOIDANCE COSTS1

ABSTRACT: Economic losses from ground water contamination were estimated in a central Pennsylvania community. The averting expenditures method was applied via a mail survey of households in which water contained the unregulated volatile organic chemical, perchloroethylene (PCE). Expenditures were estimated at $148,900 (1987 dollars) over the six-month contamination period or approximately $252 per household annually. These costs underestimate the lower bound measure of welfare losses to households from ground water contamination. An upper bound measure of welfare losses was estimated at $383 per household annually. These estimates do not represent the full economic losses resulting from ground water contamination since the study did not address municipal-level and business avoidance costs and losses from actual health effects, increased fear and anxiety, ecological damages, and nonuser ground water benefits. The results expand the existing empirical base of information about municipal-level responses and economic losses from ground water contamination to include household-level impacts. The findings indicate that households undertake substantial averting actions in response to ground water contamination and that such actions can have significant economic consequences. The extent and magnitude of avoidance costs documented suggests that policy-makers should give greater attention to this category of economic losses.     

A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

/ A method is presented for estimating probable public costs resulting from damage caused by hurricanes, measured as local government expenditures approved for reimbursement under the Stafford Act Section 406 Public Assistance Program. The method employs a multivariate model developed through multiple regression analysis of an array of independent variables that measure meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical conditions related to the landfall of hurricanes within a local government jurisdiction. From the regression analysis we chose a log-log (base 10) model that explains 74% of the variance in the expenditure data using population and wind speed as predictors. We illustrate application of the method for a local jurisdiction-Lee County, Florida, USA. The results show that potential public costs range from $4.7 million for a category 1 hurricane with winds of 137 kilometers per hour (85 miles per hour) to $130 million for a category 5 hurricane with winds of 265 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour). Based on these figures, we estimate expected annual public costs of $2.3 million. These cost estimates: (1) provide useful guidance for anticipating the magnitude of the federal, state, and local expenditures that would be required for the array of possible hurricanes that could affect that jurisdiction; (2) allow policy makers to assess the implications of alternative federal and state policies for providing public assistance to jurisdictions that experience hurricane damage; and (3) provide information needed to develop a contingency fund or other financial mechanism for assuring that the community has sufficient funds available to meet its obligations. KEY WORDS: Hurricane; Public costs; Local government; Disaster recovery; Disaster response; Florida; Stafford Act     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

Reducing carbon emissions in Portugal: the relative roles of fossil fuel prices,energy efficiency,and carbon taxation

We assess the role of fossil fuel prices, energy efficiency, and carbon taxation in achieving climate policy goals using a dynamic general-equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy. Given the forecasts for international fossil fuel prices, improving energy efficiency and implementing a new carbon tax have significantly different economic and budgetary effects. Greater energy efficiency reduces emissions and has a positive economic effect, but increases public and foreign debt. A carbon tax reduces emissions at a cost for the economy, but leads to positive effects on public and foreign debt. Thus, it is important to pursue both strategies. We estimate that under the reference-price scenario, a steady energy efficiency gain of 2%–2.5% per year and a carbon tax of at least 35 € per tCO₂ are needed to achieve the stated goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 by an amount equivalent to 40% of the emissions in 1990. These views were fully integrated in a proposal presented by the Commission for Environmental Tax Reform to the Portuguese Government in September 2014, and then discussed in Parliament in November 2014, before enacting a new carbon tax on 1 January 2015.     

Urban air pollution from the open burning of municipal solid waste

This study estimates the contribution from the open burning of municipal wastes in some of Nigeria's major cities to atmospheric levels of air pollutants. Information obtained on open burning emission factors and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation estimates was combined to estimate annual levels of the pollutants from the open burning of MSW. Per capita distributions of pollutants were calculated on the basis of cities’ populations. The estimates of inorganic emissions across the cities studied were from 913.73 to 81,600 tons per year (TPY) of particulate matter; 4,797 to 428,400 TPY of oxides of nitrogen; 342.65 to 30,600; and 57 to 5,100 TPY of sulfur dioxide, while the estimates for methane ranged from 742 to 66,300 TPY and for other nonmethane organic compounds ranged from 1,713 to 153,000 TPY. Given the composition of MSW in these cities, the nonmethane organic compounds are likely to be composed of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds. Given the wide varieties of both inorganic and organic air pollutants released during the open burning of MSW and the associated human health and environmental impacts, it is high time that stakeholders at all levels of government came up with policies and regulatory measures for the management of MSW in the country.     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.