Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

A multi-scale approach to mapping conservation priorities for rural China based on landscape context

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Integration of agricultural, cultural and natural conservation to address land-use change risk has become a crucial issue for rural sustainability,...     

Important elements and characteristics of hearing conservation programs and determination of their effectiveness

Results of on-site interviews with industrial personnel involved in hearing conservation programs (HCPs) show common deficiencies in personnel training and program implementation, reducing HCP effectiveness in protecting employees from occupational hearing loss. Audiometric data base analysis (ADBA) provides procedures which allow HCP ineffectiveness to be detected before many employees develop significant noise-induced hearing loss. If HCP procedures are corrected, based on ADBA results, then audiometry serves to prevent hearing loss rather than simply detecting its occurrence. The paper presents criterion ranges for ADBA procedure results as recommended by the ANSI S12.12 Working Group for Evaluation of HCPs.     

Hydropower development in the lower Mekong basin: alternative approaches to deal with uncertainty

Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. As a means of comparing these trade-offs, a sensitivity analysis of the benefit-cost analysis of certain Basin Development Plan (BDP) scenarios was undertaken. By changing some key assumptions in the BDP about discount rates, the value of lost capture fisheries, future aquaculture production in the LMB, and the value of lost ecosystem services from wetlands to reflect the full range of uncertainty, at the extremes, there could be a reversal of the Net Present Value (NPV) estimates of the scenarios from a positive $33 billion to negative $274 billion. This report recommends when dealing with large-scale, complex projects: a more comprehensive, integrated human and natural systems framework and adaptive management approach to LMB planning and development that deals with the entire watershed; a more comprehensive analysis and treatment of risk and uncertainty; a more thorough assessment of the value of direct and indirect ecosystem services; a broader set of scenarios that embody alternative models of development, broader stakeholder participation; and better treatment of the effects of infrastructure construction on local cultures and the poor.     

金融节能、金融发展对碳排放变化的影响研究

本文将金融节能与金融发展同时引入传统LMDI分解模型,并融合脱钩弹性指数,分析了两者对碳排放变化的影响机理。在此基础上,本文还检验了1997—2015年中国29个省区金融节能与金融发展的碳排放效应。研究发现:首先,尽管1997—2015年中国碳排放规模的扩张趋势较为明显,短期来看,这一演变仍然大体经历了三个阶段,即碳排放增量持续扩张期、碳排放增量波动下降期以及碳排放增量平稳期。其次,不仅金融节能、金融发展以及经济增长是在短期和长期诱发中国碳排放变化的三个最主要因素,而且前两者对中国碳排放变化的影响还大于后者。再次,金融节能对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向始终与金融发展对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向相反。最后,金融节能和金融发展与中国碳排放变化之间在短期内基本维持弱脱钩或强负脱钩两种状态,而在长期呈现强负脱钩状态,通过分解这些脱钩弹性状态的诱因,不仅直接影响和交互影响的作用方向始终相反,而且两者还分别在金融节能与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动以及金融发展与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动中发挥截然相反的作用。     

The origin and development of nature conservation: A view from the boundary between millennia

A concise but informative “Calendar of Events in Nature Conservation” is presented in order to illustrate the complex process of Man's realization of his place in Nature.     

Conceptual approaches for the development of dynamic specific activity models of 14C transfer from surface water to humans

Carbon-14 is a particularly interesting radionuclide from the perspective of dose estimation. Many nuclear facilities, including power reactors, release 14C into the environment, and much of this is as 14CO2. This mixes readily with stable CO2, and hence enters the food chain as fundamental biomolecules. This isotopic mixing is often used as the basis for dose assessment models. The present model was developed for the situation of 14C releases to surface waters, where there are distinct changes in the water 14C activity concentrations throughout the year. Complete isotopic mixing (equilibrium) cannot be assumed. The model computes the specific activity (activity of 14C per mass of total C) in water, phytoplankton, fish, crops, meat, milk and air, following a typical irrigation-based food-chain scenario. For most of the biotic compartments, the specific activity is a function of the specific activity in the previous time step, the specific activity of the substrate media, and the C turnover rate in the tissue. The turnover rate is taken to include biochemical turnover, growth dilution and mortality, recognizing that it is turnover of C in the population, not a tissue or an individual, that is relevant. Attention is paid to the incorporation of 14C into the surface water biota and the loss of any remaining 14CO2 from the surface water-air interface under its own activity concentration gradient. For certain pathways, variants in the conceptual model are presented, in order to fully discuss the possibilities. As an example, a new model of the soil-to-plant specific activity relationship is proposed, where the degassing of both 14C and stable C from the soil is considered. Selection of parameter values to represent the turnover rates as modeled is important, and is dealt with in a companion paper.     

人口长期均衡发展及其评价监测模型的构建与应用

在借鉴已有理论的基础上,界定了人口长期均衡发展的内涵,提出人口长期均衡包含人口内部均衡和人口外部均衡两个方面,人口内部均衡包括人口数量、人口质量和人口结构三个维度,人口外部均衡包括人口与经济、人口与社会、人口与资源、人口与环境四个维度;在此基础上构建了人口长期均衡发展的指标体系和评价模型,指标体系设定为三级,第一级包括人口内部均衡和人口外部均衡两个方面,第二级由人口数量、人口质量、人口结构等七个部分构成;第三级指标包括反映内部均衡的7个指标以及反映外部均衡的13个指标.并使用层次分析法确定了指标的权重;采用2000-2007年31个省级单位的数据对人口长期均衡发展评价模型进行了验证,并对人口总体均衡水平以及影响人口均衡发展的关键要素进行了实证分析.结果表明.北京、上海和浙江分列前三,人口均衡发展程度最高.从影响均衡程度的关键因素看.人口质量和人口结构是制约人口自身均衡的主要因素,人口与社会的均衡状况对人口与外部系统均衡制约最大,其次是人口与经济的均衡状况.     

Industrial water conservation by water footprint and sustainable development goals: a review

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Application of advanced techniques to ensure the environment sustainability and freshwater ecosystem conservation is a paramount importance. Industrial...     

Biodiversity conservation: From ecosystem to the ecosystem approach

The possibility of implementing 12 principles of the ecosystem approach is considered with regard to the results of meetings of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and recent international forums. The importance of these principles for achieving the main goals of the CBD is shown, and the role of biosphere reserves in solving urgent problems of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in adjoining territories of subjects of the Russian Federation is discussed.     

US exposure to multiple landscape stressors and climate change

Regional Environmental Change - We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis...     

Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability X consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key question for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.     

Mathematical approaches to the analysis of the spatial-age structures of tussock herb species

Some up-to-date methods of analysis of the spatial and age structures of populations, including local population density maps and Ripley’s functions, are described using 20 cenopopulations (CPs) of Adonis vernalis L. as an example. Pregenerative plants have been found to be the most contagious, irrespective of climatic and phytocenotic conditions and land use type. The spatial distribution pattern and structure of A. vernalis are mainly determined by generative plants forming a tussock, irrespective of the climate and vegetation type. This is explained by higher competitiveness of generative plants, which results in a reduced vegetation density at small distances from them (25–50 cm). Within wider areas, plant distribution may be random due to uniformity of local conditions in microhabitats. The formation of distinct plant aggregations is accounted for by insufficient water supply and the intensity and type of anthropogenic impact.     

Comparison and analysis of different approaches for estimating the human exposure to phthalate esters

The human exposure estimates for dibutyl (DBP) and bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) made by two models EUSES and ACC-Human, and by an estimation approach which utilized measured concentrations in exposure media, were compared. The approach which utilized the latest monitoring data for important exposure media, yielded median daily intakes for adult humans for DBP and DEHP of 2.7 and 5.6 microg/kg body weight per day, respectively, which were in the same range as previous estimates based on back-calculation from urinary metabolites. EUSES estimated average daily intakes of DBP and DEHP for humans that were between 8 and 13 times lower. ACC-Human does not estimate average daily intakes, but ACC-Human-estimated human milk concentrations/fugacities were more than a thousand times lower than measured concentrations/fugacities in human milk. It was concluded that the two models underestimate human exposure to phthalate esters because they consider only a few key pathways that are known to be important for other, more persistent, hydrophobic organic compounds. Further, it was shown that there are differences between the two models on the methodology for estimating concentrations in exposure media such as vegetation, milk, beef and fish. ACC-Human uses a mechanistic approach for estimating transfer through aquatic and terrestrial food chains that are known to be important for human exposure to persistent, hydrophobic organics and can, unlike EUSES, account for food chain metabolism. It proved difficult, however, to obtain organism metabolism rates needed as model inputs to ACC-Human. If exposure estimates of phthalate esters are needed, it is recommended to use an estimation approach based on high quality monitoring data as presented here and/or back-calculate daily intake from concentrations of metabolites in human urine samples from the general population.     

Successful and sustainable governance of the lower Yellow River,China: A floodplain utilization approach for balancing ecological conservation and development

Environment, Development and Sustainability - A novel model has been proposed for the methodical development and safe utilization of the lower Yellow River floodplain to provide flood control with...