Advanced mathematical programming modeling to assess the benefits from international CO2 abatement cooperation

The aim of this paper is to propose a method for coupling national energy models, to identify the dividends of international cooperation in atmospheric pollution abatement and efficient energy use. It indicates, also, how to solve the resulting large‐scale multinational model. It simulates finally a cooperation of four European countries for curbing their carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.     

The Impact of Accidental Deviation by Natural Disaster-Prone Countries on Renegotiation-Proof Climate Change Agreements

This study provides a new framework for international environmental agreements (IEAs), which include punishment exceptions for accidental deviation, using repeated games. We consider that deviation from an agreement can occur accidentally because of phenomena such as natural disasters, even if the agreement is sustained as a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. If an IEA signatory deviates accidentally, it fails to achieve its emission abatement target. In the repeated game, a cooperative relationship among signatories is sustained by a strategy that prescribes rules of cooperation and punishment for deviation. We present a new strategy, called Regional Cooperative, which integrates accidental deviations into an IEA. Our model reveals that punishing countries tend to revoke the punishment of deviators and return to cooperation if an accidental deviator increases its abatement volume. That is, the abatement efforts of the accidental deviator can lead to renegotiation. The Regional Cooperative strategy motivates the accidental deviator to try to engage in abatement and the punishing countries to restart cooperation by renegotiation. We conclude that social welfare loss by punishment is prevented through renegotiation in cases of accidental deviation.     

Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Establishing the link between ammonia emission control and measurements of reduced nitrogen concentrations and deposition

In the context of international efforts to reduce the impactsof atmospheric NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺ (collectively, NH_x), it is important to establish the link between NH₃emissions and monitoring of NH_x concentrations and deposition. This is equally relevant to situations where NH₃emissions changes are certain (e.g. due to changed source sectoractivity), as to cases where NH₃ abatement technologies havebeen implemented. Correct interpretation of adequate atmosphericmeasurements is essential, since monitoring data provide the onlymeans to evaluate trends in regional NH₃ emissions.These issues have been reviewed using available measurements and modelling from nine countries. In addition to historic datasets,the analysis here considers countries where NH₃ source sector activity changed (both increases and decreases) and countries where NH₃ abatement policies have been implemented.In The Netherlands an `ammonia gap' was identified between the expected reduction and results of monitoring, and was attributedinitially to ineffectiveness of the abatement measures. The analysis here for a range of countries shows that atmospheric interactions complicate the expected changes, particularly sinceSO₂ emissions have decreased at the same time, while at manysites the few years of available data show substantial inter-annual variation. It is concluded that networks need to beestablished that speciate between NH₃ and aerosol NH₄ ⁺, in addition to providing wet deposition, and sample at sufficient sites for robust regional estimates to be established. Such measurements will be essential to monitor compliance of the international agreements on NH₃ emission abatement.     

Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.     

A Stochastic Dynamic Game of Carbon Emissions Trading

This paper proposes a computable stochastic equilibrium model to represent the possible competition between Russia and China on the international market of carbon emissions permits. The model includes a representation of the uncertainty concerning the date of entry of developing countries (e.g., China) on this market in the form of an event tree. Assuming that this date of entry is an uncontrolled event, we model the competition as a dynamic game played on an event tree and we look for a solution called S-adapted equilibrium. We compare the solution obtained from realistic data describing the demand curves for permits and the marginal abatement cost curves in different countries, under different market and information structures: (i) Russia's monopoly, (ii) Russia–China competition in a deterministic framework, (iii) Russia–China competition in a stochastic framework. The results show the possible impact of this competition on the pricing of emissions permits and on the effectiveness of Kyoto and post-Kyoto agreements, without a US participation.     

The Impact of Unilateral Commitment on Transboundary Pollution

To reach a common target of environmental quality, countries can choose to commit to a stream of pollution abatement right from the beginning of the game or decide upon abatement at each moment of time. Though most of the previous literature studies homogeneous strategies where no country or all countries commit to a (same) predefined policy, reality goes along a different way: some countries make more efforts than others to reduce pollutant emission. The main novelty of this paper resides in the introduction of this kind of heterogeneous strategic behavior currently observed among large pollution nations. We find that the pollution level can be lower under heterogeneous than under homogeneous strategies. A stringent environmental quality target will induce the committed player to produce an abatement effort that more than compensates the free-riding attitude of the non-committed player.     

What matters in the distributions of clean development mechanism projects? A panel data approach

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suggests that both developed and developing countries can take actions to mitigate global climate change. Carbon reduction and sustainable development are the goals of the CDM. However, the uneven distribution of the CDM projects in developing countries may jeopardize the fulfilment of these goals. This paper uses panel data from 107 host countries to explore the influencing factors of the CDM using a negative binomial regression. The club convergence model is used to divide the host countries into different sub-groups according to their numbers of operating CDM projects in a year. The results show that affluence, the sophisticated international trading experience, and the growing demands for energy of the host countries have a positive impact on the successful registrations of the CDM projects, while the cost of carbon emission abatement hinders the registration. But for countries with fewer CDM projects, the industrial level and national carbon emission have no significant impacts on the distribution of CDM projects. In the end, target policy implications were made based on the results.     

基于CiteSpace的温室气体监测发展动态可视化分析

采用文献计量方法,利用CiteSpace软件对Web of Science核心合集中2004—2020年以"Greenhouse Gases Monitoring"为主题词检索到的2 514篇文献进行可视化分析,从时间分布、国际合作、研究机构合作、研究领域、共被引分析和关键词分析等方面,揭示该领域的发展动态、研究实力分布、热点前沿等。结果表明:2004—2020年温室气体监测研究领域的发文数量总体呈现上升趋势,在全球应对气候变化的重大事件时间节点发文数量增幅较大;该领域发文量较多的国家和机构皆以发达国家为主,发展中国家中中国居首位,国家、机构合作关系紧密;温室气体监测研究涉及的学科领域较广,环境科学与生态学、环境科学、工程为排名前3位的学科领域,2010年后研究逐步拓展到建筑学、影像学、计算机科学、经济学等领域;该领域的研究知识基础主要聚焦温室气体浓度监测、来源去向、影响因素及变化趋势分析,温室气体监测技术方法研究及应用,以及森林、农业土壤碳汇研究等方面;通过不同时段关键词分析发现CO₂、CH₄和N₂O一直是温室气体监测...     

An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime

In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100. More precisely, we analyze a steady-state situation where m coalitions exist and behave as m players in a game of supplying emission rights on an international emission trading system. The quotas supplied by a coalition must correspond to the amount of CO₂ captured through CDR activities in the corresponding world region. We use an extension of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 to calibrate the payoff functions and compute an equilibrium solution in the noncooperative game.

     

Optimal Policy Mechanism Design for Cross-Sector and Multi-Stage Pollution Control with a Bilevel Model: Application to SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission in China

In this paper, we construct a multi-stage coordinated programming model under tax system to control SO₂ emission. The model is based on an explicitly formulated SO₂ abatement cost function created under Chinese condition. Analysis of the effectiveness and impact on the economy of the model is carried out with consideration of game theory. By solving the model, theoretical results show that the volume-based multi-stage SO₂ tax system has two properties: effectiveness and equal-rate. Based on these theoretical results, empirical study is also performed using Chinese historical data. Compared with yearly single-stage programming model, the tax rate generated by the coordinated multi-stage programming model is time-invariant and rather moderate in scale. The total abatement cost among planning years in our model is 21.03 % less than the actual number and 6.68 % less than that in the single-stage situation. The tax payment suggested by our model is 10.62 % less than by the single-stage model. In general, a coordinated multi-stage programming model helps reduce the overall costs of environmental protection while achieving the same emission control target with less burden added to the economy.     

Effect of national-level spatial distribution of cities on national transport CO2 emissions

Most research regarding the relationship between cities and transportation carbon emission is focused on intra-city travel, and it has been found that compact patterns tend to emit less carbon. Yet, little is known about the impact of national-level spatial distribution of cities and inter-city transportation on transportation CO₂ emissions. Further, most studies regarding the impact of urbanization on CO₂ emission directly examine the relationship between urbanization rate and CO₂ emission with little consideration of the national spatial pattern of urbanization. This study hypothesizes that the national-level spatial distribution of cities – in a dispersed or polarized pattern – affects national transport CO₂ emissions due to the varying intensity of inter-city transportation. This study uses the Gridded Population of the World v3 and v4 from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) of NASA to examine the national-level spatial distribution of urban agglomerations. It applies the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The analysis shows that, among 60–90% of urbanized countries, spatially dispersed urbanized countries (e.g., countries with many medium-sized cities scattered over the territory) show a lower national transportation CO₂ emission than spatially polarized urbanized countries (e.g., there are only a few large cities). The urban system elasticity of transportation CO₂ emissions is 0.4 or 0.6. That is, if the degree of polarization decreases by 1%, national transportation CO₂ emissions decrease by approximately 0.4–0.6%. This effect is similar to the effect of GDP per capita of around 0.5%. Because it is particularly difficult to disperse people and economic activities across a country once spatial polarization is set, this study's findings have the most significant implications for urbanizing countries. If urbanizing countries adopt national urban policy and territorial plans to form dispersed cities, it could reduce transportation carbon emissions and promote sustainable development. For already urbanized countries, national urban policy development is recommended to promote spatially dispersed rather than polarized national urban systems.     

基于WoS文献计量分析PM2.5研究现状

运用文献计量学的研究方法,以Web of Science(WoS)为数据源,利用Excel软件对1990—2015年发表的相关PM_(2.5)研究的文献进行数据统计与分析,从文献发表年代、主要发文国家/地区、研究机构、期刊分布、热点文献等方面采用定量、定性的方法揭示了目前世界PM_(2.5)的研究进展。结果表明,近10年关于PM_(2.5)研究发文量增长较快,PM_(2.5)研究全球关注度较高,美国无论发文量、总被引频次和H指数都远超过其他国家/地区,体现了美国在PM_(2.5)研究领域的主导地位;PM_(2.5)相关领域的研究机构主要集中在美国和中国(未包含港、澳、台地区数据);文献多发表在相关大气化学与物理学、环境、健康、气溶胶等领域的刊物上;当前研究热点由PM_(2.5)所引发全球关注的生态环境问题转入对人体健康的影响上,且国际合作研究成为发展趋势。中国自2006年以来PM_(2.5)的研究文献增速显著,发文量和累计被引频次位居世界第二,仅低于美国。     

The role of secondary particulates in European emission abatement strategies

Economic assessments have indicated that the greatest benefits of reducing atmospheric emissions of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe come from the resulting reductions in secondary particulate concentrations. For comparison with abatement strategies devised to reduce exceedance of critical loads for acidification, this paper, therefore, considers optimisation of emission abatement strategies to reduce secondary particulate concentrations and minimise human exposure. It is seen that this changes the relative emphasis between some countries in reducing their emissions, and also places less importance on emissions of ammonia from agriculture relative to those of SO₂ and NO_x. The effect of placing emphasis on improvement in the more highly polluted areas of Europe is also examined by imposing a threshold. The benefits of the strategies in terms of ecosystem protection and human exposure to particulates are presented for all scenarios studied. The scenarios are also interpreted in terms of a blame matrix for human exposure to secondary particulates.     

Modelling and assessing inter-regional trade of CO2 emission reduction units

A cost-efficient way to allocate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions among countries or regions is to harmonise their marginal reduction costs. This could be achieved by a market of emission reduction units (ERUs). To model such a market, we use a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model. It gives insights into the consequences of co-ordinating CO₂ abatement on regional energy systems and economies. As a numerical application, we assess the establishment of a market of ERUs among three European countries for curbing their CO₂ emissions.     

The Kyoto Protocol and non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Sinks

Many trace constituents other than carbon dioxide affect the radiative budget of the atmosphere. The existing international agreement to limit greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol, includes carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) and credit for some carbon sinks. We investigate technological options for reducing emissions of these gases and the economic implications of including other greenhouse gases and sinks in the climate change control policy. We conduct an integreated assessment of costs using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model combined with estimates of abatement costs for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and sinks. We find that failure to take advantage of the other gas and sink flexibility would nearly double aggregate Annex B costs. Including all the GHGs and sinks is actually cheaper than if only CO₂ had been included in the Protocol and their inclusion achieves greater overall abatement. There remains considerable uncertainty in these estimates, the magnitude of the savings depends heavily on reference projections of emissions, for example, but these uncertainties do not change the overall conclusion that non-CO₂ GHGs are an important part of a climate control policy.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Permits and effluent charges in the water pollution control policies of France,West Germany,and the Netherlands

In this article the water pollution control policies of these countries and their effects on emitters are analyzed. In the Netherlands, local water control boards levy pollution charges on both direct and indirect emitters. The charges are based upon measured emissions and actual treatment costs and they vary among the boards. Discharges into surface waters are by permission only. West German law sets nationally uniform rates only for direct emitters and some pollutants, irrespective of treatment costs. The States (Länder), however, may make indirect emitters liable to pay as well. In France, river basin agencies charge emitters and grant discounts where abatement facilities have been installed. Further policy instruments are tax cuts, subsidies, and standards set on local and national levels. France, in this complex policy, also uses contrats de branche where government and industries agree by contract on pollution abatement. Evidence shows that all these policies have reduced water pollution. As emissions decrease, problems of overcapacity might occur where collective water treatment plants have been installed already. Moreover, investment in additive abatement technology may inhibit the introduction of low-waste, integrated technologies. Yet the development of the latter, though expensive in the short run, should enable industry to meet more stringent standards in the future.     

On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: an application of FUND

This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population, which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation, free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.