Finding upper-level sets in cellular surface data using echelons and saTScan

Across a spectrum of contemporary contexts from public health to landscape ecology and natural resources, there is need for objective determination of elevated occurrence in phenomena such as disease incidence and biodiversity. Occurrences of such phenomena constitute response surfaces, but data regarding the surface is typically acquired in a cellular framework. The cells may comprise a regular grid, or may be of irregular shapes such as counties in which statistics are collected. Echelons are a topologically based approach to systematic determination of spatial structure in a step surface. Spatial scan statistics are a probability-based approach to the same issue when interest lies in a rate variable. Here we examine the use of echelons both separately and in conjunction with the SaTScan implementation of spatial scan statistics for purposes of determination and visualization of upper-level sets. Consideration is given to both conventional geographic space and to the cellular pseudo-space of contingency tables for ordered categorical variables. Received: August 2002 / Revised: July 2005     

National water footprint in an input–output framework—A case study of China 2002

Water footprint is an indicator showing the consumption impact on environment with water equivalent, which allows a detailed quantification of water use directly and indirectly in sectors for the domestic and abroad final consumption. This paper presents a framework of calculating national water footprint (NWF) with input–output method on China 2002. The results indicated that the NWF of China was 381 m³/cap yr in 2002. A new indicator termed as national water footprint intensity (NWFI) is also derived from NWF to evaluate the water consumption intensities of different sectors. Then the evaluation of virtual water trade in sectors is followed, the results of which give a detailed quantification of net virtual water import of sectors, verifying that China is a net virtual water exporter concerning the whole national sectors, which is different from the previous studies. Finally, it is suggested that the sectors with high NWFI and volume of net virtual water export should be regarded as the priority of Chinese water-saving strategy.     

Tropical forest restoration: tree islands as recruitment foci in degraded lands of Honduras.

Tropical forest recovery in pastures is slowed by a number of biotic and abiotic factors, including a lack of adequate seed dispersal and harsh microclimatic extremes. Accordingly, methods to accelerate forest recovery must address multiple impediments. Here, we evaluated the ability of "tree islands" to serve as "recruitment foci" in a two-year study at three sites in northern Honduras. Islands of three sizes (64, 16, and 4 m2) and at two distances to secondary forest (20 and 50 m) were created by planting 2 m tall vegetative stakes of two native species: Gliricidia sepium (Fabaceae) and Bursera simaruba (Burseraceae), each in monoculture. Open-pasture "islands" of equal sizes served as controls. Tree islands reduced temperature and light (PAR) extremes as compared to open pasture, creating a microenvironment more favorable to seedling establishment. Seed-dispersing birds (quantified at one site only) showed an overwhelming preference for islands; 160 visits were recorded to islands compared with one visit to open pasture. Additionally, frugivores visited large islands more often, and for longer time periods, than small islands, thereby increasing the likelihood of a dispersal event there. In total, 144 140 seeds belonging to 186 species were collected in islands; more than 80% were grasses. Tree islands increased zoochorous tree seed rain; seed density and species richness were greater in tree islands than in open pasture, and large islands had greater seed density than smaller islands (Gliricidia only), suggesting that they are more effective for restoration. Distance to forest did not affect seed rain. A total of 543 seedlings and 41 species established in islands; > 85% were zoochorous. Seedling density did not differ among treatments (mean 0.2 seedlings/m2 for islands vs. 0.1 seedlings/m2 for pasture), although an increasing trend in tree islands over the course of two years suggests that seedling recruitment is accelerated there. Lastly, similar seedling densities were censused in the 1 m perimeter surrounding islands, suggesting that islands can expand outward into pasture. Planting vegetative stakes to create tree islands in pastures accelerates forest recovery by overcoming a number of impediments, and presents a simple, broadly applicable alternative for facilitating forest regeneration in abandoned pastures.     

Combining the Species-Area-Habitat Relationship and Environmental Cluster Analysis to Set Conservation Priorities: a Study in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

Abstract: Identification of priority areas is a fundamental goal in conservation biology. Because of a lack of detailed information about species distributions, conservation targets in the Zhoushan Archipelago (China) were established on the basis of a species–area–habitat relationship (choros model) combined with an environmental cluster analysis (ECA). An environmental‐distinctness index was introduced to rank areas in the dendrogram obtained with the ECA. To reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation, the ECA was performed considering spatial constraints. To test the validity of the proposed index, a principal component analysis–based environmental diversity approach was also performed. The priority set of islands obtained from the spatially constrained cluster analysis coupled with the environmental‐distinctness index had high congruence with that from the traditional environmental‐diversity approach. Nevertheless, the environmental‐distinctness index offered the advantage of giving hotspot rankings that could be readily integrated with those obtained from the choros model. Although the Wilcoxon matched‐pairs test showed no significant difference among the rankings from constrained and unconstrained clustering process, as indicated by cophenetic correlation, spatially constrained cluster analysis performed better than the unconstrained cluster analysis, which suggests the importance of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into ECA. Overall, the integration of the choros model and the ECA showed that the islands Liuheng, Mayi, Zhoushan, Fodu, and Huaniao may be good candidates on which to focus future efforts to conserve regional biodiversity. The 4 types of priority areas, generated from the combination of the 2 approaches, were explained in descending order on the basis of their conservation importance: hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, hotspots with general environmental conditions, areas that are not hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, and areas that are not hotspots with general environmental conditions.     

Evidence of dispersal limitation in soil microorganisms: isolation reduces species richness on mycorrhizal tree islands

Dispersal limitation plays an important role in a number of equilibrium and nonequilibrium theories about community ecology. In this study we use the framework of island biogeography to look for evidence of dispersal limitation in ectomycorrhizal fungal assemblages on "tree islands," patches of host trees located in a non-host vegetation matrix. Because of the potentially strong effects of island area on species richness and immigration, we chose to control island size by sampling tree islands consisting of a single host individual. Richness on tree islands was high, with estimates ranging up to 42 species of ectomycorrhizal fungi associating with a single host individual. Species richness decreased significantly with increasing isolation of tree islands, with our regression predicting a 50% decrease in species richness when tree islands are located distances of approximately 1 km from large patches of contiguous forests. Despite the fact that fungal fruit bodies produce large numbers of spores with high potential for long-distance travel, these results suggest that dispersal limitation is significant in ectomycorrhizal assemblages. There were no discernible effects of isolation or environment on the species identity of tree island fungal colonists. In contrast to the highly predictable patterns of tree island colonization we observed in a previous study on early successional forests, we suggest that over longer time periods the community assembly process becomes more dominated by stochastic immigration and local extinction events.     

Modelling the productivity of naturalised pasture in the North Island,New Zealand: a decision tree approach

Decision tree, one of the data mining methods, has been widely used as a modelling approach and has shown better predictive ability than traditional approaches (e.g. regression). However, very little is known from the literature about how the decision tree performs in predicting pasture productivity. In this study, decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the annual and seasonal productivity of naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit, validation and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models for annual and seasonal pasture productivity all had a smaller average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of correctly predicted cases than the corresponding regression models. The decision tree model for annual pasture productivity had an ASE which was only half of that of the regression model, and correctly predicted 90% of the cases in the model validation which was 10.8 percentage points higher than that of the regression model. Furthermore, the decision tree models for annual and seasonal pasture productivity also clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing pasture productivity, and the interaction among these variables. Spring rainfall was the most significant factor influencing annual pasture productivity, while hill slope was the most significant factor influencing spring and winter pasture productivity, and annual P fertiliser input and autumn rainfall were the most significant factors influencing summer and autumn pasture productivity. One limitation of using the decision tree to predict pasture productivity was that it did not generate a continuous prediction, and thus could not detect the influence of small changes in environmental and management variables on pasture productivity.     

Benefits to poorly studied taxa of conservation of bird and mammal diversity on islands

Protected area delineation and conservation action are urgently needed on marine islands, but the potential biodiversity benefits of these activities can be difficult to assess due to lack of species diversity information for lesser known taxa. We used linear mixed effects modeling and simple spatial analyses to investigate whether conservation activities based on the diversity of well‐known insular taxa (birds and mammals) are likely to also capture the diversity of lesser known taxa (reptiles, amphibians, vascular land plants, ants, land snails, butterflies, and tenebrionid beetles). We assembled total, threatened, and endemic diversity data for both well‐known and lesser known taxa and combined these with physical island biogeography characteristics for 1190 islands from 109 archipelagos. Among physical island biogeography factors, island area was the best indicator of diversity of both well‐known and little‐known taxa. Among taxonomic factors, total mammal species richness was the best indicator of total diversity of lesser known taxa, and the combination of threatened mammal and threatened bird diversity was the best indicator of lesser known endemic richness. The results of other intertaxon diversity comparisons were highly variable, however. Based on our results, we suggest that protecting islands above a certain minimum threshold area may be the most efficient use of conservation resources. For example, using our island database, if the threshold were set at 10 km² and the smallest 10% of islands greater than this threshold were protected, 119 islands would be protected. The islands would range in size from 10 to 29 km² and would include 268 lesser known species endemic to a single island, along with 11 bird and mammal species endemic to a single island. Our results suggest that for islands of equivalent size, prioritization based on total or threatened bird and mammal diversity may also capture opportunities to protect lesser known species endemic to islands. Beneficios de los Taxa Poco Estudiados para la Conservación de la Diversidad de Aves y Mamíferos en Islas     

Resources from another place and time: responses to pulses in a spatially subsidized system

As the theoretical bases for the dynamics of spatially subsidized communities emerge, ecologists question whether spatially subsidized communities exhibit similar structure or dynamics to communities that receive strongly pulsed resources. In both cases, communities may be structured by responses to resources that are potentially absent at any given point in time (pulsed communities) or space (subsidized communities), even if pulsed resources are part of the in situ productivity of the system or the subsidies arrive as a relatively constant input from a nearby system. The potential for significant spatial or temporal resource limitation, therefore, may be a key factor influencing in similar ways the persistence of populations, the structure and dynamics of communities, and the evolution of specific life history traits. In most complex systems, however, multiple resources may arrive for various trophic entities at various points in time and from various points in space, and thus it may be difficult to separate or compare the dynamics of spatially subsidized and pulsed systems. In this paper, we explore the effects of interactions between pulses and subsidies in plant and animal populations and communities on highly pulsed and variably subsidized islands in the Gulf of California. While many of the plant and animal communities on the unsubsidized islands in this system respond to pulses of rain in classic ways, responses to these rain pulses on islands subsidized by seabird guano or other marine resources are quite different and variable, and depend on a combination of life history characteristics, physiology, competitive interactions, and trophic relationships. These variable responses to rain pulses then translate into large differences in dynamics and community structure of subsidized vs. unsubsidized islands. Indeed, most systems experience both temporal pulses and spatial subsidies. When considered in tandem, complementary or synergistic effects of the multiple, temporally and spatially variable resources may emerge that help explain complex food web structure and dynamics.     

运用聚类分析划分农业生态类型区

科学地划分农业生态类型区对于分类指导农业生产、合理利用农业资源具有重大的现实意义。本文通过相关分析,选择了包括自然本底、经济条件、生态环境和生态经济效益在内的26个指标,采用聚类分析的方法,把全省划分为四个生态类型区,即山区林地生态区(Ⅰ)、盆地丘陵生态区(Ⅱ)、水网平原生态区(Ⅲ)和沿海岛屿生态区(Ⅳ)。在分区的基础上,分别对各生态类型区进行了综合评述。     

Relation between surface chlorophyll,integrated chlorophyll and integrated primary production

The relationships between surface chlorophyll and integrated values of chlorophyll and primary production are examined in the California Current and the central North Pacific Ocean. In the California Current, surface chlorophyll is correlated with both integrated chlorophyll and integrated primary production, although there is considerable scatter in the relationships. In the central North Pacific, surface chlorophyll is not correlated with either integrated chlorophyll or integrated primary production. An analysis of closely spaced replicate casts shows that in both areas most of the scatter in the relations between surface values and integrated values is due to spatial or temporal changes in the relations themselves rather than measurement error. The use of surface chlorophyll or fluorescence values as indicators of the biological state of pelagic ecosystems should thus be applied with caution.     

Selection of Islands for Conservation in the Urban Archipelago of Helsinki, Finland

Abstract: The occurrence of vascular plants was surveyed on 207 islands (size range 0.01–390.2 ha, number of plant species 1–449) offshore from the city of Helsinki in the Baltic Sea to examine the conservation value of these islands. We calculated a rarity score for each species (1/number of islands occupied by the species) and a biodiversity score for each island (sum of the rarity scores of each species present on the island). Positive correlations between species number and biodiversity score (r _s = 0.97, p < 0.001) and between biodiversity score and island area (r _s = 0.87, p < 0.001) indicated that these parameters are heavily dependent on island size. With the goal of including at least one occurrence (island) of all plant species, an iterative selection algorithm chose a set of 41 islands whose average size (29.3 ha) was four times the average size of all existing islands (7.0 ha). Strong nestedness ( N < 54) explains the concentration of plant species diversity on large islands. An operational strategy for selection of sites for protection is to complement the set produced by a selection algorithm with target species not yet included (e.g., endangered species with several occurrences). Comprehensive mapping and analysis of a taxonomic group will help integrate conservation biology into land-use planning and increase the quality of the networks of protected areas.     

Modelling the impacts of land-use and drainage density on the water balance of a lowland–floodplain landscape in northeast Germany

This study presents the modelling approach and impact assessment of different strategies for managing wetland water resources and groundwater dynamics of landscapes which are characterised by the hydrological interactions of floodplains and the adjacent lowlands. The assessment of such impacts is based on the analysis of simulation results of complex scenarios of land-use changes and changes of the density of the drainage-network. The method has been applied to the 198 km² Lower Havel River catchment as a typical example of a lowland–floodplain landscape. The model used consists of a coupled soil water and groundwater model, where the latter one is additionally coupled to the surface channel network. Thus, the hydrological processes of the variable saturated soil zone as well as lateral groundwater flow and the interactions between surface water and groundwater are simulated in an integrated manner. The model was validated for several years of significantly different meteorological conditions. The comparison of lateral and vertical water balance components showed the dominance of lateral flow processes and the importance of the interactions between surface water and groundwater for the overall water balance and the hydrological state of that type of landscape.The simulation of land-use change scenarios showed only minor effects of land-use change on the water balance and groundwater recharge. Changes of groundwater recharge were particularly small within the wetland areas being part of the floodplain where interactions between surface water and groundwater are most pronounced. Alterations in vertical groundwater recharge were counter-balanced by the lateral interaction between groundwater and surface water. More significant deviations in groundwater recharge and storage were observed in the more peripheral areas towards the catchment boundaries which are characterised by greater groundwater distance from the surface and less intense of ground water–surface water interactions.However, the simulation results assuming a coarsening of the drainage network density showed the importance of drainage structure and geometry for the water balance: The removal of the artificial draining ditches in the floodplain would result in significant alterations of total groundwater recharge, i.e., less recharge from winter to early summer and an increase of groundwater recharge during summer and autumn. Furthermore the different effects of groundwater recharge alterations on the dynamics of groundwater stages within the wetland areas close to the floodplains compared to the more peripheral areas could be quantified. Finally, it will be discussed that a well-adjusted co-ordination of different management measures is required to reach a sustainable water resources management of such lowland–floodplain landscapes.     

湖南省农业生态环境建设的问题与对策

湖南作为长江流域重要的农业大省，在主要农产品产量大幅度增长的同时，农业生态环境中存在的问题仍然严重，生态环境整体上尚未根本好转。湖南生态环境中存在的问题主要有；灾害频率和强度提高；不适当的丘岗山地与坡耕地开发造成了严重的水土流失；环境污染日趋严重。文章结合已有研究工作，提出了湖南农业生态建设主攻方向和措施。作者认为，(1)加强水土流失治理，是减少水旱灾害的根本措施。水土流失治理的重点是综合开发潜力大、人类垦殖活动频繁、环境相对脆弱的丘陵地区。(2)要构建人地协调的高效农业生态系统。在丘岗山区，依据不同自然条件，构建高效农业生态系统。达到提高生产率并保护生态环境的目的；在平原湖区调整农业布局，实行避灾减灾种植制度。(3)要依靠科技进步，促进农业生态建设。     

Ecological consequences of forest elephant declines for Afrotropical forests

Poaching is rapidly extirpating African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) from most of their historical range, leaving vast areas of elephant‐free tropical forest. Elephants are ecological engineers that create and maintain forest habitat; thus, their loss will have large consequences for the composition and structure of Afrotropical forests. Through a comprehensive literature review, we evaluated the roles of forest elephants in seed dispersal, nutrient recycling, and herbivory and physical damage to predict the cascading ecological effects of their population declines. Loss of seed dispersal by elephants will favor tree species dispersed abiotically and by smaller dispersal agents, and tree species composition will depend on the downstream effects of changes in elephant nutrient cycling and browsing. Loss of trampling and herbivory of seedlings and saplings will result in high tree density with release from browsing pressures. Diminished seed dispersal by elephants and high stem density are likely to reduce the recruitment of large trees and thus increase homogeneity of forest structure and decrease carbon stocks. The loss of ecological services by forest elephants likely means Central African forests will be more like Neotropical forests, from which megafauna were extirpated thousands of years ago. Without intervention, as much as 96% of Central African forests will have modified species composition and structure as elephants are compressed into remaining protected areas. Stopping elephant poaching is an urgent first step to mitigating these effects, but long‐term conservation will require land‐use planning that incorporates elephant habitat into forested landscapes that are being rapidly transformed by industrial agriculture and logging.     

Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR

Islands face similar challenges for sustainability as continental areas, but their geographic situation conditions their options for development. However, thanks to their clear geographic boundaries, they are an opportunity to think about sustainability in an integrated way. The objective of the study was to explore from a local (island) and regional (archipelago) perspective strategies for sustainability. ‘Participative foresight scenario mapping’ (PFSM) methodology was used to explore the sustainable future of a small island (Flores Island, Azores, Portugal). The need to acknowledge the limit to growth is a key finding of this article. But the research also allowed us to analyse in depth specific strategies that can be applied to different sectors of activity, the most important being to: improve the quality of local products, diversify the economy and increase self-sufficiency. PFSM succeeded in identifying key themes and facilitating debate around these subjects. These findings can inform sustainable development in other islands or territories sharing similar geographic characteristics.     

Prioritizing islands for the eradication of invasive vertebrates in the United Kingdom overseas territories

Invasive alien species are one of the primary threats to native biodiversity on islands worldwide. Consequently, eradicating invasive species from islands has become a mainstream conservation practice. Deciding which islands have the highest priority for eradication is of strategic importance to allocate limited resources to achieve maximum conservation benefit. Previous island prioritizations focused either on a narrow set of native species or on a small geographic area. We devised a prioritization approach that incorporates all threatened native terrestrial vertebrates and all invasive terrestrial vertebrates occurring on 11 U.K. overseas territories, which comprise over 2000 islands ranging from the sub‐Antarctic to the tropics. Our approach includes eradication feasibility and distinguishes between the potential and realistic conservation value of an eradication, which reflects the benefit that would accrue following eradication of either all invasive species or only those species for which eradication techniques currently exist. We identified the top 25 priority islands for invasive species eradication that together would benefit extant populations of 155 native species including 45 globally threatened species. The 5 most valuable islands included the 2 World Heritage islands Gough (South Atlantic) and Henderson (South Pacific) that feature unique seabird colonies, and Anegada, Little Cayman, and Guana Island in the Caribbean that feature a unique reptile fauna. This prioritization can be rapidly repeated if new information or techniques become available, and the approach could be replicated elsewhere in the world. Priorización de Islas para la Erradicación de Vertebrados Invasores en los Territorios Exteriores del Reino Unido     

Wood Density as a Conservation Tool: Quantification of Disturbance and Identification of Conservation‐Priority Areas in Tropical Forests

Abstract: Inventories of tree species are often conducted to guide conservation efforts in tropical forests. Such surveys are time consuming, demanding of expertise, and expensive to perform and interpret. Approaches to make survey efforts simpler or more effective would be valuable. In particular, it would be good to be able to easily identify areas of old‐growth forest. The average density of the wood of a tree species is closely linked to its successional status. We used tree inventory data from eastern Borneo to determine whether wood density can be used to quantify forest disturbance and conservation importance. The average density of wood in a plot was significantly and negatively related to disturbance levels, with plots with higher wood densities occurring almost exclusively in old‐growth forests. Average wood density was unimodally related to the diversity of tree species, indicating that the average wood density in a plot might be a better indicator of old‐growth forest than species diversity. In addition, Borneo endemics had significantly heavier wood than species that are common throughout the Malesian region, and they were more common in plots with higher average wood density. We concluded that wood density at the plot level could be a powerful tool for identifying areas of conservation priority in the tropical rain forests of Southeast Asia.