CONFLICT ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ALTERNATWE FOR THE MANAYLJNK CANAL1

ABSTRACT: The solution of a water resource allocation problem by an alternative social arrangement is presented. Classical Austrian economic theory and the “new resources economics” provide both theoretical and practical evidence to support the development of well-defined, private property rights to the water resource in question. A conflict analysis demonstrates that management of the Manayunk Canal by a firm would reconcile existing confrontations through compromise use of the water resource. Benefit and cost calculations show that a compromise among industrial and recreational interests, currently competing in the political arena, would increase social benefits.     

HYDRAULIC MODELING SUPPORT FOR CONFLICT ANALYSIS: THE MANAYUNK CANAL REVISITED1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a study which used a standard, hydraulic computer model to generate detailed design information to support conflict analysis of a water resource use issue. As an extension of previous studies, the conflict analysis in this case included several scenarios for stability analysis - all of which reached the conclusion that compromising, shared access to the water resources available would result in the most benefits to society. This expected equilibrium outcome was found to maximize benefit-cost estimates.     

EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN DIVERSION ON THE WATER CHEMISTRY OF THE ILLINOIS WATERWAY1

: Chemical quality characteristics of the Illinois waterway covering a stretch of 270 river miles were monitored at approximately 10 mile intervals, during the period June to September of 1978 and 1979. A statistical method was used to define the interstation relationships for the chemical parameters. These mathematical models were used to predict the effects of Lake Michigan diversion. The mineral content of the mixed flow resulting from increased diversions are not likely to be altered drastically.     

A GAME-THEORETIC APPROACH TO ACID RAIN ABATEMENT: CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The detrimental impacts of acid rain have become widely publicized, but effective and equitable methods to mitigate the acid rain problem remain to be found. This paper focuses on conflicts involved in allocation of the total emission loads to be reduced to respective pollution sources of acid rain, and proposes a game-theory approach to the resolution of the conflict. With an example abstracted from a hypothetical case study in the United States of America and Canada, a systematic analysis is performed and policy implications of the results examined to assess the applicability of the proposed model.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PLAYA LAKE WATER UTILIZATION ON THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the spatial, temporal and legal aspects of playa lake water utilization on the semi-arid Texas High Plains. These small basins of interior drainage collect and briefly hold an estimated two to three million acre-feet of runoff water annually, representing from one-fourth to one-third the quantity of groundwater pumped from the dwindling Ogallala aquifer. Once considered a detriment to farming operations, there is now increased interest in using playa water more effectively. At present direct pumping is the chief method of utilization, and modification of lake bottoms to concentrate runoff and reduce evaporation is the most widespread conservation practice. The use of playa water for groundwater reacharge is hampered by as yet unsolved technical problems. For many years the question of ownership of playa water remained unsettled. The Texas Water Rights Commission now classes it as diffused surface water, which under Texas law may be used by the landowner, though some legal problems remain. For play lakes to be effectively integrated into the regional water resource it becomes imperative that all present and prospective water utilization problems be identified and resolved.     

LAKE QUALITY DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Despite the fact that lake phosphorus loading criteria have proven to be valuable tools in lake management, they are generally subjective in nature or incomplete in form. In order to address these shortcomings, the oxic-anoxic transition point was selected as an objective quality criterion and discriminant analysis was used to construct a lake classification function. This function is dependent upon lake phosphorus loading, mean depth, and overflow rate. The value of the function may be expressed as a probability of classification (as either oxic or anoxic). When used in prediction, inclusion of the input error permits the estimation of the change in classification probability as input uncertainty is reduced. Further, the form of the discriminant function suggests that the annual volumetric loading is a more informative term for the expression of phosphorus loading than is the annual areal loading.     

MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR LAKE ATHABASCA BY ANALYSIS OF TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: The fact that dendrochronology can be a useful tool in water resources management is demonstrated by a study of past changes in lake levels. The study was necessitated by the recent (1967) closure of the gates on the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia, causing a drop in water levels of Lake Athabasca, the lake levels control water level undulations in a series of smaller lakes which lie in the 1.5 million acre delta area along its western edge in Alberta. The W.A.C. Bennett Dam has by its regulation of the Peace River affected the river's historical role of creating a hydraulic dam during early summer flood stages thereby preventing outflow from Lake Athabasca and inducing annual inundation of the delta area. Because the ecololgy of the lake and adjacent delta region has depended on the now attenuated snow-melt flooding from the Upper Peace River Basin, it became necessary to consider some means of artificially inducing this annual inundation. It was not known, however, what the long-term water level changes were around which the present ecology had developed. Continuous historical lake level records exist only for the period 1935–1967. Was this period one of anomalously high or low water levels? Relatively old white spruce trees growing along natural levees of the channels in the delta region were found to contain tree-ring records that reflected the water stages in the channels. Because the water levels in the channels could be correlated with lake levels, it was possible to use the three-ring series to extend the known 33-year record of lake level changes to 158 years. By using canonical analysis and 10-day mean lake levels for three different subperiods in the 33-year period of calibration, along with tree-ring series from appropriately chosen stands of white spruce, reconstructions were made of the long-term record for late May, early July, and late September. The reconstructed record shows that the May 21–30 lake levels have been three times as variable in the past as in the period of historical record (1935–1967), the July 11–20 levels twice as variable, and the September 21–30 levels 10% less variable. However, the mean water level for each of the three subperiods for the long-term record is very close to the means for the period of historical record. The reconstructed record shows that, before the dam gates were closed, there was only one three-year period (1866–1868) in which the lake levels were as low as they have been since closure of the gates (that is, 1967–1970). (Levels were nearly as low, however, during the period 1942–1945.     

DATA ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES IN LAKE ERIE1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive data analysis study is carried out for detecting trends and other statistical characteristics in water quality time series measured in Long Point Bay, Lake Erie. In order to glean an optimal amount of useful information from the available data, the exploratory and confirmatory data anslysis stages are adhered to. To test a range of hypotheses regarding the statistical properties of the time series, a wide variety of both parametric and nonparametric techniques are employed. A particularly useful nonparametric method for discovering trends is the seasonal Mann-Kendall test.     

THE VRANA LAKE HYDROLOGY (ISLAND OF CRES - CROATIA)1

ABSTRACT: The Vrana Lake on the island of Cres in the Adriatic Sea represents a specific phenomenon of karst hydrology. The island of Cres covers an area of 404.3 km² with an average volume of 220 × 10⁶ m³ of fresh water in the lake. The island has an average rainfall of 1,063 mm, with a Mediterranean climate. The lake has a bottom reaching a depth of 62 m below mean sea level. The average water level is 14 m above mean sea level. The most probable theories on the origin of the lake and its hycirologic-hydrogeologic functioning state that it is a flooded poije in karst. The water budget method was used to define the lake catchments area at approximately 25 km². During the last six years, there has been drastic decrease of about 3 m in the lake's water level. This phenomenon was analyzed and it was calculated that 53 percent of the water-level decline was caused by water discharges from the lake to satisfy water supply demands, and 47 percent was due to a period of low precipitation during the analyzed period.     

A LINEAR ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

The use of linear programming as a planning tool for determining the optimal long-range development of an urban water supply system was explored. A stochastic trace of water demand was synthesized and used as an input to the model. This permitted evaluating the feasibility of imposing demand restrictions as an effective cost reduction mechanism. The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, was used as the urban model. The fundamental problem was to allocate limited water supplies from several sources to an urban load center to minimize costs and comply with system constraints. The study period covered twenty years, and findings indicate the planning direction for stage development during this period. Sensitivity analyses were performed on cost coefficients and demands. Thirteen sources were included in the initial computations. Conclusions were that linear programming and generated demand traces are useful tools for both short- and long-term urban water supply planning. Lowering peak demands results in long-range development of fewer sources of supply and more economic and efficient use of the supplies developed.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

HYDROLOGIC BALANCE OF LAKE CHAPALA (MEXICO)1

ABSTRACT: Lake Chapala, whose primary tributary is the Río Lerma, is the largest freshwater lake in Mexico and for the past 95 years has maintained an average storage capacity close to 6,700 Mm³. Starting hi the early 1970s, the Lerma-Chapala basin rapidly industrialized. In response to these upstream anthropogenic activities, the fisheries, aesthetics, and water quality of Lake Chapala have decreased as a consequence of the increasing chemical and biologic pollutants mainly from the Río Lerma. Additionally, the growth of Guadalajara has resulted in increasing potable water demands on the lake to satisfy a population currently greater than 4.5 million. During the 1980s, the outflow and water losses from the lake substantially exceeded the inflow and other water contributions. In this paper, the recent behavior of the hydrologic and bathymetric parameters of Lake Chapala are summarized and some important physical stresses on the system are identified. The focus of this work is the 1934–1989 period, and it is shown that starting around 1980 some of the main contributors to the lake water balance were severely perturbed and the lake reached its second lowest recorded level. The disturbances of the system are so severe that the entire regional ecosystem could be irreversibly affected in the near future.     

COORDINATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE AC A CASE STUDY OF LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: The potential for joint public and private action for lake restoration is examined using Lake Apopka, Florida, as a case study. Initial calculations indicate that private incentives alone are inadequate to attract investment in a facility to grow and harvest water hyacinths for conversion to methane gas. However, the private externality of water quality improvement associated with harvesting water hyacinths provides a key linkage between the public's water quality objectives and the private gas producer's actions. In order to establish the potential basis for negotiation, the public's willingness-to-pay for environmental services associated with improved water quality is estimated and compared with the estimated subsidy required to induce private action. A conceptual framework is then presented for coordinating actions between private firms and public water management agencies in order to internalize the private externality of water quality improvement while simultaneously achieving the public and private objectives. Results indicate that the subsidization of water hyacinth production and harvesting compares favorably with alternative means of enhancing the water quality of Lake Apopka.     

THE ENHANCED ROLE OF WATER CONSERVATION IN THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER PROJECTS1

The concept of water conservation has increased in importance because of revisions in the rules and procedures for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal water projects. These revisions include a requirement that nonstructural and water conservation measures be incorporated into economic assessments of projects. Project analyses will now proceed as if water supplies were allocated “most effectively,” that is, to their highest valued uses. A related requirement provides that the net benefits of any project should now be valued using willingness to pay measures. A specific cost-benefit methodology accommodating the revisions is constructed and discussed. Informational requirements for applying this methodology are identified. In addition to being consistent with federal mandates, this technique offers important advantages over the traditional “requirements” approach to water supply planning.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF PERCEPTIONS IN THE DETERMINATION OF INDIAN WATER RIGHTS1

ABSTRACT The American Indian occupies a unique place in the federal system of government There are indications that this relationship will continue and that Indian reservations are at the threshold of economic development. As this occurs, the nature and extent of Indian water rights becomes more important to Indian and non-Indian alike. The determination of these rights is a matter of more than judicial decisions. To a large degree the determination of these rights will rest in the non-judicial arena and will be influenced by the perceptions of those rights held by Indians and water allocation officials, both state and federal. If the perceptions of these political actors are not congruent, then political conflict will occur as the rights become more important. To depend solely upon the judicial system to resolve these conflicts entails risks and costs to both Indians and to allocating officials. Indians are taking seriously the federal policy of Indian self-determination, and water allocation officials run decided risks in failure to realize this. An alternative suggested is to include Indians as consulting parties when decisions are being made that affect Indian interests.     

MATERIALS INPUT OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN: A SYNOPTIC APPRAISAL1

ABSTRACT: The complex morphometry of Lake Champlain requires that detailed, regional studies be made, and the results integrated, to yield total lake conditions. Using specific conductance measurements, and values of total dissolved solids calculated from them, we present an approach to assessing the materials budget of the lake. The sampling program involved inventorying all 319 tributaries, determining the watershed area for each, and dividing the Champlain basin into appropriate hydrographic regions. Data were obtained from samples collected from 41 selected streams (representing 97.5% of the annual water input), sampling occurring in all seasons of the year since 1970. Results indicate that over one million metric tonnes of total dissolved solids enter Lake Champlain annually, about two-thirds (63%) from the eastern (Vermont) portion and almost one-fourth (22%) from the western (New York) part of the drainage basin, the remainder (15%) entering from the south end. Of the total quantity added annually, 17.4% is retained in the lake, indicating that a solids build-up is occurring, at a significant rate. We suggest that specific conductance, and therefore total dissolved solids, be utilized as a convenient indicator of water quality conditions, and results applied to permit more efficient watershed management.     

WATER MARKETING: THE CASE OF INDIAN RESERVED RIGHTS1

ABSTRACT: Water marketing is an increasing important topic for policy makers and water managers, especially in the Western United States. Indian reserved rights (or Winters rights) differ in significant ways from water rights under most state prior appropriation systems. As Winters rights are quantified, a number of issues are emerging concerning the extent to which these water rights may be marketed, particularly to off-reservation users. This paper will review the evolution of Indian reserved water rights and discuss key issues surrounding the marketing of these rights.     

MULTIVARIATE TREND TESTING OF LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate methods of trend analysis offer the potential for higher power in detecting gradual water quality changes as compared to multiple applications of univariate tests. Simulation experiments were used to investigate the power advantages of multivariate methods for both linear model and Mann-Kendall based approaches. The experiments focused on quarterly observations of three water quality variables with no serial correlation and with several different intervariable correlation structures. The multivariate methods were generally more powerful than the univariate methods, offering the greatest advantage in situations where water quality variables were positively correlated with trends in opposing directions. For illustration, both the univariate and multivariate versions of the Mann-Kendall based tests were applied to case study data from several lakes in Maine and New York which have been sampled as part of EPA's long term monitoring study of acid precipitation effects.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVATION POLICY1

Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.