Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER QUALITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: An assessment of current and future water quality conditions in the southeastern United States has been conducted using the EPA BASINS GIS/database system. The analysis has been conducted for dissolved oxygen, total nitrate nitrogen and pH. Future streamflow conditions have been predicted for the region based on the United Kingdom Hadley Center climate model. Thus far, the analyses have been conducted at a fairly coarse spatial scale due to time and resource limitations. Two hydrologic modeling techniques have been employed in future streamflow prediction: a regional stochastic approach and the application of a physically based soil moisture model. The regional model has been applied to the entire area while the physically based model is being used at selected locations to enhance and support the stochastic model. The results of the study reveal that few basins in the southeast exhibit dissolved oxygen problems, but that several watersheds exhibit high nitrogen levels. These basins are located in regions of intense agricultural activity or in proximity to the gulf coast. In many of these areas, streamflow is projected to decline over the next 30–50 years, thus exacerbating these water quality problems.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

REAPPRAISAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESOURCES IN DELAWARE RIVER BASIN USING SYNTHETIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT The 60's drought (1961 1966) which hit the Northeastern United States, had its center over the Delaware River Basin and caused water supply shortages to New York City, Philadelphia, and many other towns and industries in the Basin. Until this event occurred, the existing water supply sources and those planned for the future had been considered adequate, as they were designed for the worst drought of record (usually the 1930-31 drought). In view of this “change in hydrology,” the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized a study (DRBC Resolution 67-4) to re-evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned water supply sources of the Delaware River Basin and its Service Area (New York City and northern New Jersey). Synthetic hydrology is a tool which can be used to overcome many of the limitations of the traditional approach. By analyzing generated streamflow traces in this study, it has been determined that there is a definite relationship between the accumulated rainfall deficiency during the drought and the return periods associated with various durations of runoff in the drought. This indicated that generated traces can be used to standardize the hydrology over an area where the intensity of drought varied. This represented an important facet in the study, because it provided a means to equalize the effects of this drought over the study area, and gave the Delaware River Basin Commission more information so that it could better plan and manage its water resources equitably, not only for the people within the Basin, but for the New York City and northern New Jersey areas as well. Synthetic hydrology was used to determine yield-probability relationships for 50-year periods, and storage-yield-frequency relationships for existing and planned water-supply reservoirs. It was also used to determine yield-probability relationships for reservoir systems within the Basin. In the study, it was determined that monthly streamflow traces and uniform draft rates could be used in yield analysis because of the magnitude of the reservoirs and because seasonal variations of draft rate are small in the study area. Although it was found that with the streamflow generating models (first order Markov) in common use today, it is not possible to definitely determine the actual frequency of a very severe historic drought, it is possible to place a drought in perspective by using synthetic hydrology. The study showed that it is a useful tool in determining water availability over a basin and is useful in studying water management problems such as interbasin transfers, and reservoir systems operations.     

Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

MANAGEMENT OF INSTREAM FLOWS THROUGH RUNOFF DETENTION AND RETENTION1

ABSTRACT: The use of reservoirs and land treatments to manage streamflow for the maintenance or enhancement of instream flow values is a valid concept. Historically, large reservoirs have been used for flood control and water-supply regulation. Smaller structures have enjoyed widespread use for soil and water conservation in headwater areas. Where reservoir releases can be controlled, it is technically feasible to regulate flows for the enhancement of instream values. However, institutional and political obstacles may preclude the operation of some reservoirs for this purpose. Retention and detention structures and land treatments, implemented for soil and water conservation purposes, have often had favorable effects on the streamflow hydrograph. Decreases in peak flows and increases in low flows have been documented. Design concepts for runoff-control structures are discussed in relation to instream flow management objectives. Hydro-logic simulation is offered as a potential tool for project design and feasibility analysis.     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

EFFECTS OF BASIN-SCALE TIMBER HARVEST ON WATER YIELD AND PEAK STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow changes resulting from clearcut harvest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) on a 2145 hectare drainage basin are evaluated by the paired watershed technique. Thirty years of continuous daily streamflow records were used in the analysis, including 10 pre-harvest and 20 post-harvest years of data. Regression analysis was used to estimate the effects of timber harvest on annual water yield and annual peak discharge. Removal of 14 million board feet of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) from about 526 hectares (25 percent of the basin) produced an average of 14.7 cm additional water yield per year, or an increase of 52 percent. Mean annual daily maximum discharge also increased by 1.6 cubic meters per second or 66 percent. Increases occurred primarily during the period of May through August with little or no change in wintertime streamflows. Results suggest that clearcutting conifers in relatively large watersheds (> 2000 ha) may produce significant increases in water yield and flooding. Implications of altered streamflow regimes are important for assessing the future ecological integrity of stream ecosystems subject to large-scale timber harvest and other disturbances that remove a substantial proportion of the forest cover.     

WATERSHED SCALE MODELING OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS OF RUNOFF GENERATION AND PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: A curve number based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and a physically based model, Soil Moisture Distribution and Routing (SMDR), were applied in a headwater watershed in Pennsylvania to identify runoff generation areas, as runoff areas have been shown to be critical for phosphorus management. SWAT performed better than SMDR in simulating daily streamflows over the four‐year simulation period (Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient: SWAT, 0.62; SMDR, 0.33). Both models varied streamflow simulations seasonally as precipitation and watershed conditions varied. However, levels of agreement between simulated and observed flows were not consistent over seasons. SMDR, a variable source area based model, needs further improvement in model formulations to simulate large peak flows as observed. SWAT simulations matched the majority of observed peak flow events. SMDR overpredicted annual flow volumes, while SWAT underpredicted the same. Neither model routes runoff over the landscape to water bodies, which is critical to surface transport of phosphorus. SMDR representation of the watershed as grids may allow targeted management of phosphorus sources. SWAT representation of fields as hydrologic response units (HRUs) does not allow such targeted management.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF GROUND WATER PUMPAGE ON LOW-FLOW HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Ground-water pumpage withdrew 57 cubic feet per second from aquifers beneath the Yahara River Basin in 1970. Forty-six cubic feet per second were exported by the diversion of treated wastewater from the drainage basin. The low-flow hydrology of the upper Yahara River has been impacted by this diversion. Prior to 1959, the wastewater was discharged into the river, augmenting the baseflow during low-flow periods. As much as 85% of streamflow was due to effluent discharge. In 1959 the wastewater was transferred from the river basin. The result was a decrease of about one-third in mean annual streamflow, and a decrease of more than 50% in the 7Q₂ and 7Q₁₀. Regression analysis showed the annual 7-day low-flow and 60-day low-flow have a statistically significant correlation with mean annual flow. Using predictions of future mean annual discharge of the river with increasing interbasin transfers, it is shown that by 1990 there is a significant probability that in some years the 60-day low-flow in the river will be zero.     

Constraining SWAT Calibration with Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data

Historically, many watershed studies have been based on using the streamflow flux, typically from a single gauge at the basin's outlet, to support calibration. In this setting, there is great potential for equifinality of parameters during the optimization process, especially for parameters that are not directly related to streamflow. Therefore, some of the optimal parameter values achieved during the autocalibration process may be physically unrealistic. In recent decades a vast array of data from land surface models and remote sensing platforms can help to constrain hydrologic fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET). While the spatial resolution of these ancillary datasets varies, the continuous spatial coverage of these gridded datasets provides flux measurements across the entire basin, in stark contrast to point‐based streamflow data. This study uses Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model data to constrain Soil and Water Assessment Tool parameter values associated with ET to a more physically realistic range. The study area is the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed, in southern Oklahoma. Traditional objective metrics such as the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients record no performance improvement after application of this method. However, there is a dramatic increase in the number of days with receding flow where simulations match observed streamflow.     

PHYSICAL HYDROLOGY AND THE EFFECTS OF FOREST HARVESTING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: A REVIEW1

The Pacific Northwest encompasses a range of hydrologic regimes that can be broadly characterized as either coastal (where rain and rain on snow are dominant) or interior (where snowmelt is dominant). Forest harvesting generally increases the fraction of precipitation that is available to become streamflow, increases rates of snowmelt, and modifies the runoff pathways by which water flows to the stream channel. Harvesting may potentially decrease the magnitude of hyporheic exchange flow through increases in fine sediment and clogging of bed materials and through changes in channel morphology, although the ecological consequences of these changes are unclear. In small headwater catchments, forest harvesting generally increases annual runoff and peak flows and reduces the severity of low flows, but exceptions have been observed for each effect. Low flows appear to be more sensitive to transpiration from vegetation in the riparian zone than in the rest of the catchment. Although it appears that harvesting increased only the more frequent, geomorphically benign peak flows in several studies, in others the treatment effect increased with return period. Recovery to pre‐harvest conditions appeared to occur within about 10 to 20 years in some coastal catchments but may take many decades in mountainous, snow dominated catchments.     

Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA)

We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments.     

APPLICATION OF THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODEL USING MULTIPLE-PARAMETER LANDSCAPE ZONES ON THE TOWANDA CREEK BASIN,PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is designed to compute daily stream discharge using satellite snow cover data for a basin divided into elevation zones. For the Towanda Creek basin, a Pennsylvania watershed with relatively little relief, analysis of snow cover images revealed that both elevation and land use affected snow accumulation and melt on the landscape. The distribution of slope and aspect on the watershed was also considered; however, these landscape features were not well correlated with the available snow cover data. SRM streamflow predictions for 1990, 1993 and 1994 snowmelt seasons for the Towanda Creek basin using a combination of elevation and land use zones yielded more precise streamflow estimates than the use of standard elevation zones alone. The use of multiple-parameter zones worked best in non-rain-on-snow conditions such as in 1990 and 1994 seasons where melt was primarily driven by differences in solar radiation. For seasons with major rain-on-snow events such as 1993, only modest improvements were shown since melt was dominated by rainfall energy inputs, condensation and sensible heat convection. Availability of GIS coverages containing satellite snow cover data and other landscape attributes should permit similar reformulation of multiple-parameter watershed zones and improved SRM streamflow predictions on other basins.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR OPTIMUM DESIGN AND CONTROL OF METROPOLITAN WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive mathematical model (Urban Wastewater Management Model) has been developed to continuously simulate time-varying wastewater flows and qualities in complex metropolitan combined sewerage systems. The model serves three functions: (1) assessment of existing or planned system performance in relation to other wastewater discharges in either a metropolitan or river basin area; (2) determination of the optium operation or automatic control of existing or planned systems during rainstorms; and (3) determination of the most economically feasible combination of design alternatives for improving or expanding existing systems to meet specified performance criteria. The model provides an efficient engineering tool for evaluating and controlling pollutant discharges from combined sewerage systems (including treatment plants) to receiving waters, while considering the time and spacial variations of rainfall and dry-weather flows and qualities as well as economic constraints.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF A LARGE-SCALE MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE (DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSAE HOPKINS) EPIDEMIC1

The Jack Creek watershed, a 133 km² (51.5 mi²) drainage in southwestern Montana, was impacted by a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic in 1975–1977 which killed an estimated 35 percent of its total timber. Analyses of USGS streamflow data for four years prior to and five years after mortality suggest a 15 percent post-epidemic increase in annual water yield, a two-to three-week advance in the annual hydrograph, a 10 percent increase in low flows and little increase of peak runoff.     

USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES FROM VEGETATION MANAGEMENT IN THE VERDE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Although the effects of vegetation management on streamflow have been studied in many locations, the effects of augmented streamflow on downstream water users have not been carefully analyzed. This study examines the routing of streamflow increases that could be produced in the Verde River Basin of Arizona. Reservoir management and water routing to users in the Salt River Valley around Phoenix were carefully modeled. Simulation of water routing with and without vegetation modification indicates that, under current institutional conditions, less than one-half of the streamflow increase would reach consumptive users as surface water. Most of the remainder would accumulate in storage until a year of unusually heavy runoff, when it would add to reservoir spills. Under alternative scenarios, from 39 to 58 percent of the streamflow increase was delivered to consumptive users.