SURFACE HEAT LOSS AND FRAZIL ICE PRODUCTION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The rates of ice production due to surface heat loss in open water reaches of the St. Lawrence River, between the Ogdensburg-Prescott Boom and the Moses-Saunders Dam, are analyzed for the past 20 winters. Simple statistical parameters for ice production rates and air temperature are determined. Regression analyses for relationships between surface heat loss rates and freezing degree days indicate that an excellent linear correlation exists between these two variables. The study also shows that it is important to consider other heat exchange components, such as the bed heat flux and viscous dissipation, in the total ice production analysis for the river reach.     

FIELD TESTING OF AN ICE-PRESERVING WINTER LAKE AERATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Artificial aeration is used to prevent winter fish kills due to oxygen depletion in ice-covered lakes. Conventional aeration by air bubble plumes and other techniques usually mixes the water column and produces hazardous open water in the ice cover. A non-mixing winter lake aeration system which creates a fish refuge was designed and field tested to oxygenate the water and maintain water temperature stratification in a lake such that no open water is created. The system uses a cascade aerator and has a design discharge and dissolved oxygen input rate of 85 1/s and 70 kg/d, respectively. Aerated water is discharged near mid-depth with minimum disturbance of the ambient water through a specially designed diffuser. The system was tested in a shallow 3 m deep lake of 17 ha surface area during two winters and was found to perform as expected. Significant photosynthetic production of dissolved oxygen under the ice-cover was also observed during snow-free periods.     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.     

WINTER HEAT BUDGET AND FRAZIL ICE PRODUCTION IN THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Winter heat budget and frazil ice production in the St. Lawrence River between the Ogdensburg-Prescott Boom and the Moses-Saunders Power Dam are analyzed. Contributions of each heat exchange component, and spatial distributions of heat exchange rates are calculated for three typical winters. Based on the calculated heat budget, the amount and distribution of frazil ice generated in the study reach is analyzed. The result of this study indicates that the thermal energy contained in the river water flowing into the study reach is a dominate factor in the heat budget analysis. The heat flux from the channel bottom accounts for an important portion of the total heat budget during the ice covered period.     

Bottomfast Ice Mapping and the Measurement of Ice Thickness on Tundra Lakes Using C‐Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote Sensing1

Abstract: Industrial activity in Canada’s north is increasing, placing demands on the use of water from lakes to build ice roads. Winter water withdrawal from these lakes has the potential to impact overwintering fish. Removal of water from small lakes can decrease oxygen and habitat available to fish. To address this issue, a protocol has been developed by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans outlining water withdrawal thresholds. Bathymetric surveys are the traditional method to determine lake depth, but are costly given the remoteness of northern lakes. This paper investigates the use of satellite C‐band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing technology as a potential alternative or complement to traditional survey methods. Previous research has shown that a SAR can detect the transition from grounded to floating ice on lakes, or if a lake is completely frozen. Grounded ice has a dark signature while floating ice appears very bright in contrast. Similar results were observed for the datasets acquired in the study area. This suggests that lakes that freeze completely to the bottom can be identified using SAR. Such water bodies would not be viable fish overwintering habitat and can therefore be used as water sources without thresholds necessary. However, attempts to accurately calculate the depth of the ice at the grounded‐floating ice boundary using bathymetric profiles acquired in the summer and lake ice thickness measurements from a reference lake near Inuvik proved to be unreliable.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

单压法标准湿度发生器的设计及不确定度评定

标准湿度发生器在湿度量传的过程中起到重要的作用。我们设计开发的标准湿度发生器采用单压法原理,使用某单位自主研制的压缩空气干燥器、分流法湿度发生器产生的气源,通过温度、压力、饱和器系统的合理设计,能够发生(-70℃~+20℃)露点范围的湿气气源,量值范围宽,准确度高。经过冷镜式精密露点仪的验证,结果表明装置满足我国湿度一级标准的技术指标。按照不确定度评定方法评定了装置的不确定度。     

复合绝缘子覆冰闪络特性及其影响因素的研究

本文主要研究复合绝缘子在轻覆冰条件下的覆冰闪络特性,通过具有憎水性表面的平板模型,分析覆冰过程中间隙长度、间隙位置、间隙分布、融冰时间及染污程度对覆冰闪络过程的影响。研究发现,间隙是产生起始电弧的主要因素,间隙长度与冰闪电压之间呈先降后升的变化趋势,且间隙愈接近电极愈容易发生闪络。冰闪电压与融冰时间呈U型趋势,染污程度与冰闪电压正相关,且高染污条件下闪络会沿着冰层与污层交界面发生。最后,通过复合绝缘子全尺寸人工覆冰试验发现,轻覆冰条件下,起始电弧出现在覆冰量较少的杆径及下表面处,且覆冰闪络电压随染污程度的上升呈下降趋势。     

ERRORS RELATED TO RANDOM STREAM TEMPERATURE DATA COLLECTION IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Records of hourly water temperatures for two streams in the Upper Mississippi River basin were used to find the error between instantaneous measurements of stream water temperatures and true daily averages. The instantaneous summer water temperature measurements were assumed to be collected during daylight hours, and measurement times were selected randomly. The absolute error at the 95 percent confidence level of randomly collected stream water temperatures was less than 0.9°C for a 1 to 5m deep large river, but as large as 3.6°C for a 0.3 to lm deep small stream. Temperature readings of morning samples were usually below daily average values, and afternoon readings were usually above. Daily mean water temperatures were obtained with less than 0.23°C standard deviation from true daily averages if the daily maximum and minimum water temperatures were averaged. Sample results were obtained for the open water (summer) season only, since diurnal water temperature fluctuations in ice covered streams are usually negligible.     

Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar for Selecting Alaskan Lakes for Winter Water Use1

Abstract: Water resources are limited in many areas of the North Slope, Alaska, particularly during winter. Water is used by the oil industry for ice road construction and maintenance, drilling and facility operations, and potable water supplies. The coastal plain between Teshekpuk Lake, in the National Petroleum Reserve‐Alaska (NPR‐A) and the Colville River has numerous shallow lakes, but further south in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range, and east to the Canning River, lakes are fewer. While many oil and gas lease sales have been conducted, or are proposed, access to the leases may be limited because of the lack of available water for ice road construction. Ice roads are the main means by which exploration is conducted in the Arctic, putting a stress on freshwater bodies that do not freeze to the lakebed in winter. Lakes that do not freeze to the lakebed also serve as overwintering habitat for fish. The purpose of this paper is to report on the potential distribution of water bodies that may provide overwinter water in selected areas from Teshekpuk Lake to the Canning River. The project used synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to search for the presence of water in lakes in March 2006. In the Kuparuk and Canning SAR images, 52 and 61% of lakes were frozen to their beds by March 2006, accounting for 49 and 57% of the lake area in these study regions. Conversely, only 2% of the lakes in the Teshekpuk region were frozen to the bottom by March 2006. Unfrozen water was more available because of deeper and more numerous lakes in the Teshekpuk Lake region (west) than in the Canning River area (east). While only specific SAR tiles were analyzed herein, the method will be a useful tool for land managers who seek to evaluate the potential for ice road construction across the Arctic.     

Risk-Based Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data: Application to Heavy Metals in North Carolina Surface Waters

The state of North Carolina's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) conducts routine water quality monitoring throughout the state to assess the health of aquatic systems. The current study reports the results of a retrospective (1990–2000) ecological risk assessment of six heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, and zinc) in 17 North Carolina basins that was conducted to estimate the risk of heavy metal toxicity to freshwater organisms and assess the sufficiency of NCDENR's monitoring data to identify water-quality-related ecological threats. Acute and chronic ecotoxicological thresholds (ETs) were calculated for each metal based upon the 10th percentile of species sensitivity distributions and were normalized for water hardness. Statewide probabilities (expressed as percentages) of a random sample exceeding acute or chronic ETs among the six metals ranged from 0.01% to 12.19% and 0.76% to 21.21%, respectively, with copper having the highest and arsenic and mercury the lowest risk. Basin-specific probabilities varied significantly depending upon water hardness and presumably watershed development. Although the majority of specific sites where data were collected were at low risk for metal toxicity, some specific sites had a high probability of toxic events associated with one or more metals. Analytical detection limits for metals were frequently higher than estimated chronic ET, limiting the ability to assess the risk of chronic toxicity in soft-water basins. Results suggest risk-based criteria may be useful for assessing and validating the sufficiency of monitoring programs and prioritizing management goals.     

A 396-YEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN JORDAN1

ABSTRACT: Water resources are the lifeblood of the Near East region. Careful planning and management of water resources in dry land regions requires information on the likelihood of extreme events, especially prolonged drought. It is essential to understand the variability of climate on time scales of decades to centuries to assign reasonable probabilities to such events. Tree-ring analysis is one way to increase our knowledge of the climate variability beyond the short period covered by the instrumental data. In this paper, we reconstruct October-May precipitation from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan to gain a long-term (A.D. 1600–1995) perspective on runs of dry years and on time series fluctuations in precipitation averaged over several years. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. The longest reconstructed drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 217.4 mm, was four years, compared with three years for the 1946–95 instrumental data. A Monte Carlo analysis designed to account for uncertainty in the reconstruction indicates a lower than 50 percent chance that the region has experienced drought longer than five years in the past 400 years.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

Protecting asset value and driving performance with a dynamic,risk-based contingency fund

We present a risk-based contingency fund management methodology to mitigate the impact of external risks on asset value and performance. Many asset intensive industries, such as water and energy utilities, are significantly affected by external risks such as extreme weather events. We put the case for a centrally held risk-based contingency fund that would mitigate against ‘medium’ impact ‘medium’ probability events that fall outside of large losses covered by insurance and smaller ‘normal’ operating losses. Our risk-based contingency approach is appropriate for short-term business planning (1–5 years) and would complement longer term planning, for example climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our approach offers a risk-based methodology to manage contingency that is explicit and defensible. Critically, our methodology allows contingency to be managed dynamically as risk probabilities and impacts change, creating a mechanism for contingency funds to be periodically released if risk exposure reduces. The long-term benefit of dynamic, risk-based contingency is to reduce the impact of external risks and support long-term sustainability.     

冰雪中持久性有机污染物（POPs）的研究现状

冰雪是地球生态系统中重要的环境组分,它们不仅直接影响着全球的水循环,而且也直接影响着一些物质在不同纬度和海拔上的分布。随着气候的变化,在中低纬度使用和排放的POPs能够挥发到大气中,并伴随着大气的运动向高纬度高海拔地区迁移,这对生态环境造成了极大的威胁。本文主要介绍了持久性有机污染物的危害、历史排放数据,并详细阐述了国内外研究人员对冰雪中POPs的研究现状。     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Integration of eDNA‐Based Biological Monitoring within the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Streamgage Network

This study explores the feasibility and utility of integrating environmental DNA (eDNA) assessments of species occurrences into the United States (U.S.) Geological Survey’s national streamgage network. We used an existing network of five gages in southwest Idaho to explore the type of information that could be gained as well as the associated costs and limitations. Hydrologic technicians were trained in eDNA sampling protocols and they collected samples during routine monthly visits to streamgages over an entire water year (2016). We analyzed the eDNA in the filtered water samples to determine the presence of two fish species: bull trout and rainbow trout. We then modeled the spatiotemporal distribution of each species using discharge and temperature data. To assess the influence of the spatial distribution of the gages on the biological information obtained, we also collected eDNA samples from locations between the gages three times during the water year. We found eDNA monitoring at the five gages provided meaningful information about the distribution of both species, especially when detection probabilities accounted for variations in temperature and discharge. Sampling between the gages provided additional information about bull trout distribution — the rarer of the two species. Our study suggests the integration of eDNA sampling into a streamgage network is feasible and could provide a novel and powerful source of biological information for riverine ecosystems in the U.S.     

OXYGEN DEMAND IN ICE COVERED LAKES AS IT PERTAINS TO WINTER AERATION1

ABSTRACT: Winterkill, the death of fish under ice due to oxygen deficiency, threatens hundreds of shallow lakes in the upper Midwest of the United States every winter. For decades, attempts have been made to prevent winterkill, usually through aeration, with mixed results. In large part, the failure of strategies to prevent winterkill can be linked to a lack of understanding of winter limnology and in particular, of oxygen dynamics under ice. Most winterkill lakes behave as closed systems with regard to oxygen. Consequently, the oxygen content of an ice and snow covered lake is essentially a function of the amount of initial storage and the rate of depletion. Should the stored oxygen be insufficient to prevent near anoxia before melting of the ice cover occurs, winterkill will result. Most oxygen consumption in ice covered lakes is due to bacterial respiration and chemical oxidation at the sediment/water interface, the remainder occurring in the water column. Oxygen consumption (and thus depletion) is a function of the velocity and oxygen concentration of the near sediment water. This is due to the fact that oxygen transport to the sediment is mediated by a diffusive boundary layer adjacent to the sediment surface. Winter oxygen depletion rates decrease when the oxygen concentration of the overlying water falls below about 3 mg/l. Aeration techniques which increase the oxygen concentration and velocity of the near-sediment water also increase the oxygen consumption (depletion) rate.     

ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF A GROUND WATER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT1

A ground water development project in the northern part of Thailand was appraised by means of benefit-cost analysis. This is the first project in Thailand to develop ground water for irrigation purposes and it is also the first project which made use of an underground PVC pipe water distribution system. Results indicate that the project is economically feasible. In comparing different water distribution systems, it is also found that distribution by means of underground PVC pipes is more economical compared to an open ditch system if the life of the latter is relatively short and the rates of inflation are high.