EFFECTS OF IMPROVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON AUTOMATED RUNOFF MAPPING: EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated maps of runoff created by means of two automated procedures. We implemented each procedure using precipitation estimates of both 5-km and 10-km resolution from PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). Our goal was to determine if using the 5-km PRISM estimates would improve map accuracy. Visual inspection showed good general agreement among our runoff maps, as well as between our maps and one produced using a manual method. A quantitative uncertainty analysis comparing runoff interpolated from our maps with gage data that had been withheld showed slightly smaller actual and percentage interpolation errors for the 5-km PRISM-based maps. Our analyses suggest a modest region-wide improvement in runoff map accuracy with the use of PRISM-based precipitation estimates of 5-km (compared to 10-km) resolution.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL RUNOFF AND WATERSHED AREA FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's effort to determine the long-term effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry, annual runoff was estimated for about 1000 ungaged sites in the eastern U.S. using runoff contour maps. One concern in using contour maps was that a bias may be introduced in the runoff estimates due to the size of the 1000 ungaged sites relative to the size of the watersheds used in developing the maps. To determine if a bias was present the relationship between the annual runoff (expressed as depth) and the watershed area for the Northeast (NE) and Southern Blue Ridge Province (SBRP) was tested using five regional data bases. One short-term data base (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and two long-term data bases (1940–57, n = 134 and 1951–80, n = 342) were used in the NE. In the SBRP one short-term database (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and one long-term data base (1951–80, n = 60) were used. For the NE and the SBRP, runoff was not directly correlated with watershed area using the five regional databases. Also, runoff normalized by precipitation was not related to watershed area.     

STORM RUNOFF PREDICTION BASED ON A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED TRAVEL TIME METHOD UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: In this study, remotely sensed data and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to estimate storm runoff response for Simms Creek watershed in the Etonia basin in northeast Florida. Land cover information from digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQ), and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) were analyzed for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000. The corresponding infiltration excess runoff response of the study area was estimated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS‐CN) method. A digital elevation model (DEM)/GIS technique was developed to predict stream response to runoff events based on the travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet. A comparison of predicted to observed stream response shows that the model predicts the total runoff volume with an efficiency of 0.98, the peak flow rate at an efficiency of 0.85, and the full direct runoff hydrograph with an average efficiency of 0.65. The DEM/GIS travel time model can be used to predict the runoff response of ungaged watersheds and is useful for predicting runoff hydrographs resulting from proposed large scale changes in the land use.     

EFFECTS OF URBAN LAKES ON SURFACE RUNOFF AND WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: The effects of an artificial lake system upon the runoff hydrology of a small watershed have been determined by comparing the quantity and quality of runoff with that of an adjacent and similar watershed containing no lakes. Lake storage reduced peak discharge and slowed flood recession rate downstream. Water stored within the lakes is generally of different quality than downstream surface runoff. Salt stored in the lakes from winter deicing is released during periods of surface runoff throughout the rest of the year. During summer or fall runoff events, lake outflow dominates the salt load of the outlet stream, generating double-peaked load hydrographs in which the second, or lake-induced, crest is many times larger than the peak which corresponds to maximum flow. On the other hand, the lakes cause a reduction of salt loads and concentration in winter runoff. The concentration and loads of ions which are not related to road salt are generally less affected by the lakes, although they are increased substantially in the fall.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

COMPARISON OF DESIGN STORM CONCEPTS USING CONTINUOUS SIMULATION WITH SHORT DURATION STORMS1

ABSTRACT: The objectives of this paper were to test the ability of various design storm distributions to simulate the actual rainfall pattern and to compare the runoff rates used in the design of stormwater management devices in the State of Florida using continuous simulation approach. The analyses were performed for four gaged stations to evaluate the applicability of design storm distributions in different parts of the State of Florida. The approach used in this study compared the peak runoff rates from design storms based on the various distributions to those that would result from actual rainfall events. A series of continuous runoff rates were developed through the use of actual fifteen-minute recorded rainfall data, Horton type infiltration decay and recovery rate, and a continuous simulation model. The runoff rates were analyzed using frequency distributions to obtain peak runoff rates associated with different return periods based on the assumption that the continuous simulation approach closely predicts the actual runoff rates from the gaged stations. The results show that the behavior of the design storm distributions varies for different watershed characteristics in different parts of the state. The study also suggests that in general the Florida Department of Transportation and the Suwanne River Water Management (FDOT/ SRWMD) distributions appeared to agree with the continuous simulation results.     

HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous time, distributed parameter hydrologic models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has opened several opportunities to improve watershed modeling accuracy. However, it has also placed a heavy burden on users with respect to the amount of work involved in parameterizing the watershed in general and in adequately representing the spatial variability of the watershed in particular. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have alleviated some of the difficulties associated with managing spatial data. However, the user must still choose among various parameterization approaches that are available within the model. This paper describes the important parameterization issues involved when modeling watershed hydrology for runoff prediction using SWAT with emphasis on how to improve model performance without resorting to tedious and arbitrary parameter by parameter calibration. Synthetic and actual watersheds in Indiana and Mississippi were used to illustrate the sensitivity of runoff prediction to spatial variability, watershed decomposition, and spatial and temporal adjustment of curve numbers and return flow contribution. SWAT was also used to predict stream runoff from actual watersheds in Indiana that have extensive subsurface drainage. The results of this study provide useful information for improving SWAT performance in terms of stream runoff prediction in a manner that is particularly useful for modeling ungaged watersheds wherein observed data for calibration is not available.     

REGIONAL RUNOFF SIMULATION FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: The feasibility of simulating monthly runoff for southeast Michigan, which comprises four major river basins, was evaluated with the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation watershed model. The evaluation covered a 13-year period (1961–73), which encompassed a complete runoff cycle. Results indicate it is feasible to simulate monthly runoff volumes on a regional scale with a single equivalent watershed by using daily precipitation and temperature data. Simulation of regional flows appears particularly attractive for the Great Lakes basin, since the basin consists of many relatively small watersheds. This method also appears promising for development of monthly runoff forecasts by employing average monthly meteorological data distributed on a daily basis. Tests of six-month runoff forecasts show relatively small deterioration with time and offer considerable improvement over climatology.     

WATERSHED MANAGEMENT WITHOUT SURFACE RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Legal, economic, and social constraints prevented the development of a surface outlet from an 878 acre watershed in the eastern Great Plains. However, frequent flooding of potentially excellent cropland within the watershed had to be controlled. The process of considering various alternatives within given constraints and utilizing natural features of the watershed to attain a water management system without surface runoff is presented. The coordinated system includes surface drainage, waterholding structures, and pumping plants. The excellent water control provided permits effective utilization of more than 115 acres of land which was previously of very low productivity.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF DISTRIBUTION RELATED TO BASIN GEOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: Mean monthly runoff from ungaged drainage basins that have significant snowpacks each year can be estimated quite well by assuming that the time duration between snowfall and snowmelt is the predominant factor in temporal runoff distribution. That time span is related to basin temperatures which are, in turn, functions of basin elevation and latitude. Regional hydrologic analyses of gaged basin data create regression equations for estimating runoff distribution by month. These equations then can be applied to ungaged basins. Basin latitude and mean elevation are two independent variables that can be used in estimating monthly runoff distributions.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.     

SIMULATION OF RUNOFF FROM URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT. .A mathematical model for urban watersheds is being developed in stages at the Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University at Logan. In verifying the watershed as a unit, watershed coefficients are determined on the computer, and related to the urbanization characteristics. The second stage of verification consists of dividing the watershed into subzones, and determining the urban parameters within each subzone. Each subzone is then individually modeled, and outflow hydrographs are routed through succeeding downstream subzones to the gaging point. The model thus makes it possible to: (a) develop runoff models for subzone hydrographs within the urban watershed, and (b) account for spatial variations of storm and watershed characteristics. An attempt was also made to analytically model the outflow hydrograph based on storm and watershed characteristics.     

Assessing Parameter Uncertainty of a Semi‐Distributed Hydrology Model for a Shallow Aquifer Dominated Environmental System

This paper examines the performance of a semi‐distributed hydrology model (i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) using Sequential Uncertainty FItting (SUFI‐2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), parameter solution (ParaSol), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). We applied SWAT to the Waccamaw watershed, a shallow aquifer dominated Coastal Plain watershed in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). The model was calibrated (2003‐2005) and validated (2006‐2007) at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, using significant parameters related to surface hydrology, hydrogeology, hydraulics, and physical properties. SWAT performed best during intervals with wet and normal antecedent conditions with varying sensitivity to effluent channel shape and characteristics. In addition, the calibration of all algorithms depended mostly on Manning's n‐value for the tributary channels as the surface friction resistance factor to generate runoff. SUFI‐2 and PSO simulated the same relative probability distribution tails to those observed at an upstream outlet, while all methods (except ParaSol) exhibited longer tails at a downstream outlet. The ParaSol model exhibited large skewness suggesting a global search algorithm was less capable of characterizing parameter uncertainty. Our findings provide insights regarding parameter sensitivity and uncertainty as well as modeling diagnostic analysis that can improve hydrologic theory and prediction in complex watersheds. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

GENERATING DESIGN HYDROGRAPHS BY DEM ASSISTED GEOMORPHIC RUNOFF SIMULATION: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The geomorphic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) may be one of the most successful methodologies for predicting flow characteristics in ungauged watersheds. However, one difficulty in applying the GIUH model is determination of travel time, and the other difficulty is the large amount of geomorphologic information required in the study watershed. Recently, using the kinematic-wave theory Lee and Yen (1997) have analytically determined the travel times for overland and channel flows in watersheds. The limitation of using an empirical velocity equation to estimate the runoff travel time for a specified watershed is then relaxed. To simplify the time-consuming work involved in geomorphic parameter measurement on topographic maps, the GIUH model is linked with geographic information systems to obtain geomorphic parameters from digital elevation models. In this paper, a case study performed for peak flow analysis in an ungauged watershed is presented. The geomorphic characteristics of the study watershed were analyzed using a digital elevation model and were used to construct the runoff simulation model. The design storm was then applied to the geomorphic runoff simulation model to obtain the design hydrograph. The analytical procedures proposed in this study can provide a convenient way for hydrologists to estimate hydrograph characteristics based on limited hydrologic information.     

EFFECTS OF WATERSHED REPRESENTATION ON RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING1

ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates the effects of watershed geometric representation (i.e., plane and channel representation) on runoff and sediment yield simulations in a semiarid rangeland watershed. A process based, spatially distributed runoff erosion model (KINEROS2) was used to explore four spatial representations of a 4.4 ha experimental watershed. The most complex representation included all 96 channel elements identifiable in the field. The least complex representation contained only five channel elements. It was concluded that oversimplified watershed representations greatly influence runoff and sediment yield simulations by inducing excessive infiltration on hillslopes and distorting runoff patterns and sediment fluxes. Runoff and sediment yield decrease systematically with decreasing complexity in watershed representation. However, less complex representations had less impact on runoff and sediment‐yield simulations for small rainfall events. This study concludes that the selection of the appropriate level of watershed representation can have important theoretical and practical implications on runoff and sediment yield modeling in semiarid environments.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.     

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A DIMENSIONLESS UNIT HYDROGRAPH1

ABSTRACT: A generalized unit hydrograph method is developed and evaluated for ungaged watersheds. A key component in this method is the value of a dimensionless storage coefficient. Procedures to estimate this coefficient are given using calibrated values from 142 rainfall-runoff events gaged in watershed located mainly in the Eastern US. Only limited success was obtained in predicting this storage coefficient. Thirty-seven, independent rainfall-runoff events were used to test the proposed technique. The generalized unit hydrograph predicted the observed runoff hydrographs fairly well with considerable improvement in accuracy over the SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. Approximately one-half of test storms had percent errors in predicted peak flow rates that were less than 34 percent compared to percent error of 88 percent with the SCS method.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.