Relationship of Land‐Use/Land‐Cover Patterns and Surface‐Water Quality in The Mullica River Basin1

Abstract: We describe relationships between pH, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, nitrogen, and phosphorus and land‐use patterns in the Mullica River basin, a major New Jersey Pinelands watershed, and determine the thresholds at which significant changes in water quality occur. Nonpoint sources are the main contributors of pollutants to surface waters in the basin. Using multiple regression and water‐quality data for 25 stream sites, we determine the percentage of variation in the water‐quality data explained by urban land and upland agriculture and evaluate whether the proximity of these land uses influences water‐quality/land‐use relationships. We use a second, independently collected water‐quality dataset to validate the statistical models. The multiple‐regression results indicate that water‐quality degradation in the study area is associated with basin‐wide upland land uses, which are generally good predictors of water‐quality conditions, and that both urban land and upland agriculture must be included in models to more fully describe the relationship between watershed disturbance and water quality. Including the proximity of land uses did not improve the relationship between land use and water quality. Ten‐percent altered‐land cover in a basin represents the threshold at which a significant deviation from reference‐site water‐quality conditions occurs in the Mullica River basin.     

WATER QUALITY PROJECTIONS: PREIMPOUNDMENT CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Recent regulations require impact statements for major water development projects, including reservoirs that will be used for water supply, recreation, and pollution control. A water quantity/quality model was developed and used for making water quality projections of a proposed reservoir in Montgomery County, Maryland. The study area is uncommon in that there is an extensive water quality data base. The results indicate that land use changes will have a significant effect on water quality and that the proposed reservoir will improve the quality of the surface waters downstream from the reservoir. A major effect of land use changes is the increase in the variability of water quality.     

Models of total and presumed wildlife sources of fecal coliform bacteria in coastal ponds

Models that accurately predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) concentrations, one of the most widely used measures of estuarine water quality, are needed to improve land use decision-making. Rapidly occurring changes in coastal land uses and the influence on water quality increases the urgency of having improved decision tools. For this study, samples were collected monthly from six coastal ponds, two tidal creeks and four shallow water wells for up to 212 years. These data were used along with other measures of environmental conditions and land classes within each watershed to construct quantitative relationships between combinations of variables and both total and presumed wildlife sources of FCB. Linear regression, bootstrapping and generalized additive modeling that incorporates both linear and nonlinear terms were used. Results of repeated simultaneous sampling on the same tide stage of ponds and downstream estuarine creeks suggest that most FCB come from wildlife and that the ponds effectively remove these bacteria except immediately following heavy rainfall. Predictive models for concentrations of total and presumed wildlife bacteria are provided along with simple measures to estimate watershed boundaries. It is proposed that these tools can be used to minimize impacts on receiving water body quality. The models can be used to test alternative development approaches within coastal watersheds similar to that found in the southeastern USA coastal zone as well as to evaluate specific proposed landscape alterations.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A growing concern for environmental quality paralleled with increasing demands on our forest resources has prompted the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to evaluate simulation modeling as a technique for analyzing management decisions in terms of their environmental effects. The evaluation focused on a system of integrated models developed at the University of Washington which simulate processes and activities within the forest ecosystem. A major part of the system is a hydrologic model which predicts changes in discharge, stream temperature, and concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved oxygen based on information generated by other models representing intensive management practices. The evaluation consisted of applying the system to a 72,000 acre tract of forest land, validating the models with two years of discharge and water quality data from a 93,000 acre watershed, and determining the pertinence of hydrologic modeling for management purposes. Results show several potential uses of hydrologic modeling for forest management planning, especially for analyzing the effects of timber harvesting strategies on water quality.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

River pollution from non-point sources: a new simplified method of assessment

Assessment of the pollution of water bodies from non-point sources is a complex data- and time-consuming task. The potential non-point pollution index (PNPI), is a new tool designed to assess the global pressure exerted on rivers and other surface water bodies by different land uses. The main feature of PNPI is the wide availability of its input data. Very detailed input maps, often lacking over many areas, are not needed for PNPI calculation. As a consequence of the input data used, the modelling of physical reality and of processes is heavily simplified. The authors counterbalanced such a simplification using an 'expert system' approach. The system bypasses the accurate representation of the physical reality to assess globally the pollution potential of different land uses according to the judgement of scientists. The scientific community proposes many models for depicting the dynamics of pollutants coming from diffuse sources. Most of them can be grouped into two broad categories: statistical models and physically based models. PNPI belongs to neither of the above-mentioned groups. PNPI is a GIS-based, watershed-scale tool designed to inform decision makers and public opinion about the potential environmental impacts of different land management scenarios. PNPI applies the multicriteria technique to pollutant dynamics and water quality. The pressure exerted on water bodies by diffuse pollution coming from land units is expressed as a function of three indicators: land use, run-off and distance from the river network. They are calculated from land use data, geological maps and a digital elevation model (DEM). The weights given to different land uses and to the three indicators were set according to experts' evaluations and allow calculation of the value of the PNPI for each node of a grid representing the watershed; the higher the PNPI of the cell, the greater the potential impact on the river network. The output of the calculation is presented in the form of maps that highlight areas that are more likely to produce pollution. Last, possibilities, strategies and results of the validation of the PNPI are described. In the authors' view, the explicit link between land use and potential pollution on which PNPI is based, together with its high communication potential, make it particularly interesting for a participatory and integrated approach to land management and environmental protection.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

EFFECTS OF SCALE ON LAND USE AND WATER QUALITY RELATIONSHIPS: A LONGITUDINAL BASIN‐WIDE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Human land use is a major source of change in catchments in developing areas. To better anticipate the long‐term effects of growth, land use planning requires estimates of how changes in land use will affect ecosystem processes and patterns across multiple scales of space and time. The complexity of biogeochemical and hydrologic interactions within a basin makes it difficult to scale up from process‐based studies of individual reaches to watershed scales over multiple decades. Empirical models relating land use/land cover (LULC) to water quality can be useful in long‐term planning, but require an understanding of the effects of scale on apparent land use‐water quality relationships. We empirically determined how apparent relationships between water quality and LULC data change at different scales, using LIJLC data from the Willapa Bay watershed (Washington) and water quality data collected along the Willapa and North Rivers. Spatial scales examined ranged from the local riparian scale to total upstream catchment. The strength of the correlations between LTJLC data and longitudinal water quality trends varied with scale. Different water quality parameters also varied in their response to changes in scale. Intermediate scales of land use data generally were better predictors than local riparian or total catchment scales. Additional data from the stream network did not increase the strength of relationships significantly. Because of the likelihood of scale‐induced artifacts, studies quantifying land use‐water quality relationships performed at single scales should be viewed with great caution.     

ESTIMATION OF PRE- AND POST-DEVELOPMENT NONPOINT WATER QUALITY LOADINGS1

ABSTRACT: A simple procedure for estimating pre- and post-development water quality loadings from residential communities is discussed. The procedure deals with: (a) gathering basic water quality loading numbers observed by others at several watersheds with various land uses; (b) obtaining the breakdown of proposed land uses at various phases of the community development; and (c) estimating pre- and post-development water quality loading numbers by taking the weighted average of the basic loading numbers in terms of areal coverages of different land uses at various phases of development. Results of this simplified procedure have been verified indirectly by comparing them with the estimates derived independently through a more fundamental but time-consuming approach. The procedure was used to evaluate the anticipated water quality impact of two future residential communities in South Florida by analyzing four water quality parameters: Suspended Soils (SS), Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD₅). Although computation of loading numbers with mixed land uses is not an exact science at the present time, the recommended approach appears to be the best available technique to analyze quantitatively the water quality-quantity-land use interactions.     

Restoring Forests and Associated Ecosystem Services on Appalachian Coal Surface Mines

Surface coal mining in Appalachia has caused extensive replacement of forest with non-forested land cover, much of which is unmanaged and unproductive. Although forested ecosystems are valued by society for both marketable products and ecosystem services, forests have not been restored on most Appalachian mined lands because traditional reclamation practices, encouraged by regulatory policies, created conditions poorly suited for reforestation. Reclamation scientists have studied productive forests growing on older mine sites, established forest vegetation experimentally on recent mines, and identified mine reclamation practices that encourage forest vegetation re-establishment. Based on these findings, they developed a Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) that can be employed by coal mining firms to restore forest vegetation. Scientists and mine regulators, working collaboratively, have communicated the FRA to the coal industry and to regulatory enforcement personnel. Today, the FRA is used routinely by many coal mining firms, and thousands of mined hectares have been reclaimed to restore productive mine soils and planted with native forest trees. Reclamation of coal mines using the FRA is expected to restore these lands’ capabilities to provide forest-based ecosystem services, such as wood production, atmospheric carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, watershed protection, and water quality protection to a greater extent than conventional reclamation practices.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

ROLE OF MODELS IN GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT1

To answer the difficult question of how to integrate operation of ground and surface water supplies into their management plans, the decision-makers must be able to predict the effects of various alternative modes of operation and meteorological conditions on the groundwater basin. Many types of models have been used for simulating the behavior of groundwater basins under these changes. Analog simulators, analog computers, and digital computers have been employed for model development. To achieve plausible models, detailed hydraulic and hydrologic characteristics are required, such as data on transmissivity, storage, and net deep percolation. These data are used in the equations that form the model. Water quality, which cannot be separated from quantity, deserves equal consideration. Recently, considerable efforts have been made to develop water quality prediction tools through the use of modeling techniques.     

WATER QUALITY IN AGRICULTURAL,URBAN, AND MIXED LAND USE WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Water quality and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution are important issues in many areas of the world, including the Inner Bluegrass Region of Kentucky where urban development is changing formerly rural watersheds into urban and mixed use watersheds. In watersheds where land use is mixed, the relative contributions of NPS pollution from rural and urban land uses can be difficult to separate. To better understand NPS pollution sources in mixed use watersheds, surface water samples were taken at three sites that varied in land use to examine the effect of land use on water quality. Within the group of three watersheds, one was predominately agriculture (Agricultural), one was predominately urban (Urban), and a third had relatively equal representation of both types of land uses (Mixed). Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, pH, temperature, and streamflow were measured for one year. Comparisons are made among watersheds for concentration and fluxes of water quality parameters. Nitrate and orthophosphate concentrations were found to be significantly higher in the Agricultural watershed. Total suspended solids, turbidity, temperature, and pH, were found to be generally higher in the Urban and Mixed watersheds. No differences were found for streamflow (per unit area), total phosphorus, and ammonium concentrations among watersheds. Fluxes of orthophosphate were greater in the Agricultural watershed that in the Urban watershed while fluxes of TSS were greater in the Mixed watershed when compared to the Agricultural watershed. Fluxes of nitrate, ammonium, and total phosphorus did not vary among watersheds. It is apparent from the data that Agricultural land uses are generally a greater source of nutrients than the Urban land uses while Urban land uses are generally a greater source of suspended sediment.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.     

Inputs of nutrients and fecal bacteria to freshwaters from irrigated agriculture: case studies in Australia and New Zealand

Increasing demand for global food production is leading to greater use of irrigation to supplement rainfall and enable more intensive use of land. Minimizing adverse impacts of this intensification on surface water and groundwater resources is of critical importance for the achievement of sustainable land use. In this paper we examine the linkages between irrigation runoff and resulting changes in quality of receiving surface waters and groundwaters in Australia and New Zealand. Case studies are used to illustrate impacts under different irrigation techniques (notably flood and sprinkler systems) and land uses, particularly where irrigation has led to intensification of land use. For flood irrigation, changes in surface water contaminant concentrations are directly influenced by the amount of runoff, and the intensity and kind of land use. Mitigation for flood irrigation is best achieved by optimizing irrigation efficiency. For sprinkler irrigation, leaching to groundwater is the main transport path for contaminants, notably nitrate. Mitigation measures for sprinkler irrigation should take into account irrigation efficiency and the proximity of intensive land uses to sensitive waters. Relating contaminant concentrations in receiving groundwaters to their dominant causes is often complicated by uncertainty about the subsurface flow paths and the possible pollutant sources, viz. drainage from irrigated land. This highlights the need for identification of the patterns and dynamics of surface and subsurface waters to identify such sources of contaminants and minimize their impacts on the receiving environments.     

DECISION SUPPORT FOR ALLOCATION OF WATERSHED POLLUTION LOAD USING GREY FUZZY MULTIOBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the grey fuzzy multiobjective programming to aid in decision making for the allocation of waste load in a river system under versatile uncertainties and risks. It differs from previous studies by considering a multicriteria objective function with combined grey and fuzzy messages under a cost benefit analysis framework. Such analysis technically integrates the prior information of water quality models, water quality standards, wastewater treatment costs, and potential benefits gained via in‐stream water quality improvement. While fuzzy sets are characterized based on semantic and cognitive vagueness in decision making, grey numbers can delineate measurement errors in data collection. By employing three distinct set theoretic fuzzy operators, the synergy of grey and fuzzy implications may smoothly characterize the prescribed management complexity. With the aid of genetic algorithm in the solution procedure, the modeling outputs contribute to the development of an effective waste load allocation and reduction scheme for tributaries in this subwatershed located in the lower Tseng‐Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Research findings indicate that the inclusion of three fuzzy set theoretic operators in decision analysis may delineate different tradeoffs in decision making due to varying changes, transformations, and movements of waste load in association with land use pattern within the watershed.     

Integrating water-quality management and land-use planning in a watershed context

The spatial relationships between land uses and river-water quality measured with biological, water chemistry, and habitat indicators were analyzed in the Little Miami River watershed, OH, USA. Data obtained from various federal and state agencies were integrated with Geographic Information System spatial analysis functions. After statistically analyzing the spatial patterns of the water quality in receiving rivers and land uses and other point pollution sources in the watershed, the results showed that the water biotic quality did not degrade significantly below wastewater treatment plants. However, significantly lower water quality was found in areas downstream from high human impact areas where urban land was dominated or near point pollution sources. The study exhibits the importance of integrating water-quality management and land-use planning. Planners and policy-makers at different levels should bring stakeholders together, based on the understanding of land-water relationship in a watershed, to prevent pollution from happening and to plan for a sustainable future.