PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT BIASES IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Gage-induced biases in monthly precipitation are estimated and removed at 1818 stations across the continental United States from 1950 through 1987. Deleterious effects of the wind and wetting losses on the interior walls of the gage were considered. These “corrected” estimates were obtained using site-specific information including wind speed, shelter-height air temperature, gage height, and sheltering. Wind speed and air temperature were interpolated at stations for which these data were not available using a spherically-based, nearest neighbor interpolation procedure. Results indicate that, as expected, biases are greater in the winter than the summer owing to the increased problems (particularly wind-induced) of measuring snowfall. In summer, percent errors range between 4 and 6 percent over nearly three-quarters of the United States with slightly larger errors over the Rocky Mountains. By contrast, winter biases are highly correlated with snowfall totals and percentage errors increase poleward, mimicking patterns of snowfall frequency. Since these biases are not trivial, they must be accounted for in order to obtain accurate and reliable time-series. If these biases are not properly addressed, serious errors can be introduced into climate change, hydrologic modeling, and environmental impact research.     

DISTRIBUTION AND STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ON A MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: The 18-year precipitation record from the dense gage network on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in southwest Idaho was used to determine the spatial distribution of annual and monthly precipitation on a mountainous watershed. Analyses of these data showed a linear relationship between annual amounts and elevation. This relationship was best when the gages were grouped into downwind and upwind sites. This grouping was appropriate because most of the winter storms moved over the watershed from the west and southwest, and the heaviest precipitation was on the west (downwind) side of the watershed. Gage sites along the western and southern watershed borders were most representative of the upwind gages on the east side, because they measured the precipitation from the air moving upwind onto the watershed. The maximum annual precipitation on the watershed was just leeward of the western watershed boundary. The monthly precipitation and elevation relationship was also best represented by grouping the gage sites into upwind and downwind sites. However, during the summer when there are only small amounts of pre cipitation and thunderstorms are the source of most precipitation, one equation can be used to represent the elevation relationship. This study also showed that the log-normal distribution could be used to generate the annual synthetic series, and the cube-root-normal distribution could be used to generate monthly synthetic series for all locations on the watershed.     

PREDICTING MEASUREMENT ERROR OF AREAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DURING EXTREME EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The areal mean precipitation (AMP) over a catchment is normally calculated using point measurements at rainfall gages. Error in AMP estimates occurs when an insufficient number of gages are used to sample precipitation which is highly variable in space. AMP error is investigated using historic, severe rainfalls with a set of hypothetical catchments and raingage networks. The potential magnitude of error is estimated for typical gage network densities and arrangements. Possible sources of error are evaluated, and a method is proposed for predicting the magnitude of error using data that are commonly available for severe, historic rainfall.     

GAGE DENSITY AND LOCATION FOR ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Data from a network of 45 shielded precipitation gages on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Southwestern Idaho were analyzed to determine the optimum gage density for estimating mean annual precipitation. Four subsets of the 45 gage network were used to derive a curve of mean annual precipitation versus number of gages with a confidence band at the 95 percent level. When less than 20 gages were used in the estimate, the confidence interval widens rapidly. Estimates were improved by stratifying gages on the basis of plant cover class or by elevation bands. Sixty-four percent of the variation in mean annual precipitation was accounted for by elevation and cover class. The aspect and hydrologic soil classification were not statistically significant.     

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF RAINFALL CATCH BY THREE DIFFERENT GAGES1

ABSTRACT: A U.S. standard gage, a weighing-type recording gage, a standard gage fitted with an Alter windshield, and a pit gage were installed to evaluate the accuracy and wind effects on rainfall catch. The study was conducted at the Stephen F. Austin Experimental Forest, about 20 km SW of Nacogdoches, Texas. A recording anemometer was also installed at a height corresponding to the standard gage orifice. Based on data from 67 storms collected over a one-year period (July 1995-August 1996), all three conventional gages consistently caught less rainfall than the reference pit gage with an average percent deficiency greater than 10 percent. However, the recording gage caught 2.7 percent less and the shielded gage caught 1 percent more than the standard gage—differences less than those reported elsewhere. The deficiencies were highly correlated with storm intensity, duration, or total rainfall. When the correction for wind effect on angle of raindrop inclination is included, the percent catch deficiency of the standard gage was reduced from 11 percent to 6 percent. The remaining errors may be attributed to wind effects (streamline vs. turbulent flow), nonrandom errors, or other unknown sources.     

POSTFIRE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK,WYOMING1

ABSTRACT: Wildfires in 1988 burned over 2000 square miles of the greater Yellowstone area in Montana and Wyoming in the largest fires in the history of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). A four-year postfire study to estimate fire-related changes in suspended sediment transport on the Yellowstone River and its principal tributary in YNP, the Lamar River, benefitted from a recently completed three-year prefire baseline study. Both studies took daily depth-integrated samples from April through September. Fire-related changes in suspended sediment were distinguished from natural climatic variations by two methods: comparison of forecast postfire sediment loads estimated with prefire sediment-rating equations to measured postfire loads; and by postfire changes in suspended sediment load expressed per unit volume runoff. Both methods indicated postfire sediment increases that varied according to season. The higher elevation Lamar River basin had little postfire increase in spring snowmelt season sediment but large increases in summer sediment load. The Yellowstone River had postfire increases in sediment load for the spring but did not reflect the large summer increases of its upstream tributary. The reasons for the difference in postfire snowmelt sediment response are unclear but may relate to basin elevation differences, the effects of unburned watersheds, and cooler postfire springs. The few high streamflow snowmelt events in the postfire period mitigated postfire sediment increases.     

SNOWPACK CHANGES RESULTING FROM TIMBER HARVEST INTERCEPTION,REDISTRIBUTION, AND EVAPORATION1

ABSTRACT: Three processes were examined as causing snowpack changes in forest clearings. Two of the three contribute to increases and one counteracts by reducing snowpack. The two that increase snowpack are redistribution and decreased loss to interception. Snow evaporation from a clearing counteracts snowpack increases. Research has indicated that as vegetation density increases, so too does the loss to interception. As snow in the canopy reaches the limit that the canopy can hold (the threshold amount) evaporation increases. Aerodynamics of the forest canopy were studied as well. As timber is cut, wind patterns are disturbed, creating disruptions in the wind velocity gradient depositing snow in openings. This redistribution leads to an increased snow water equivalent and augments runoff. Snow evaporation was shown to increase proportionally with opening size. Evaporation offsets the water yield gains derived from forest cut. It was found that this offset is inclusive to the measurements of water yield changes in experimental forests. An optimal size of harvest block may be five tree heights in width as suggested by numerous studies.     

SNOW AND ICE ALBEDO MEASURED WITH TWO TYPES OF PYRANOMETERS1

ABSTRACT: In order to obtain total short-wave albedos of snow and ice, both incident and reflected solar radiation were measured over a frozen lake surface using two different types of radiation measurement devices: a Kipp and Zonen thermopile pyranometer with a spectral sensitivity of 300 to 2800 nm and a LI-COR photovoltaic pyranometer with a spectral sensitivity of 400 to 1100 am. The spectral response of the LI-COR pyranometers limits its use as a short-wave radiation measurement device. Therefore, two equations were developed to adjust both the daily incident radiation data and the daily reflected radiation data measured by the LI-COR instrument to total short-wave radiation values, i.e., to the waveband of 300 to 2800 nm (visible to near-infrared spectrum). The LI-COR data were then adjusted, and a total short-wave adjusted albedo was calculated with a modeling efficiency of 0.97.     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD UNDER GRAZING IN FOOTHILLS FESCUE GRASSLANDS OF ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn² runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.     

TEMPORAL RESPONSES OF SURFACE‐WATER AND GROUND‐WATER TO PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Illinois data from 168 months (1986–1999) were investigated to determine the responses of surface‐water and ground‐water resources to precipitation. Such responses were generally within the month of occurrence or one to two months later, with recovery being reached another one to three months into the future, depending on season of the year. Although the drought of 1988 immediately impacted surface‐water and ground‐water resources, the time of recovery was substantially longer compared to those of individual dry months, generally continuing for several months. The extremely wet summer of 1993 resulted in elevated responses in water resources almost immediately, but in this instance continued through the following fall and winter, into the spring of 1994.     

THROUGHFALL pH: EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION : TIMING AND AMOUNT1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation, throughfall, and stream pH were measured weekly over a 27-week period in 1982 on the Little Millseat watershed in eastern Kentucky. The average pH values over the study period were 4.3, 4.9, and 6.4, respectively, indicating significant buffering as water moved from the atmosphere, through the deciduous canopy, and through or over the soil to the stream. Regression analysis demonstrated that the timing and amount of precipitation were important factors influencing the pH of the throughfall. Weekly precipitation and the three-week average precipitation were statistically significant variables, explaining 53 percent of the variance in the observed through- fall pH. Precipitation pH was not a statistically significant variable for this watershed and sampling period.     

OXIDIZED NITROGEN IN PRECIPITATION,THROUGHFALL, AND STREAMFALL FROM A FORESTED WATERSHED IN OKLAHOMA1

ABSTRACT: Oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate N) concentrations were measured from bulk precipitation, bulk through-fall, and streamflow in a 7.86 hectare forested watershed in southeastern Oklahoma during the wet season from March through June 1983. Oxidized nitrogen inputs comparable to results of other studies were recorded during the 19 rainstorms sampled. Oxidized nitrogen concentrations appeared to increase after rainfall interacted with the pine and hardwood canopies and were inversely related to both rainfall and through-fall depth. Oxidized N concentrations in streamflow were greatest during the rising limb of storm flow with subsequent decreases during the falling limb of storm hydrographs and lowest during base flow. The oxidized N inputs from bulk precipitation were considerably greater than outputs from streamflow resulting in a net retention of oxidized nitrogen within the watershed during the study period.     

Winter Hydrology and NO3− Concentrations in a Forested Watershed: A Detailed Field Study in the Adirondack Mountains of New York1

Abstract: More than 85% of NO₃^? losses from watersheds in the northeastern United States are exported during winter months (October 1 to May 30). Interannual variability in NO₃^? loads to individual streams is closely related to interannual climatic variations, particularly during the winter. The objective of our study was to understand how climatic and hydrogeological factors influence NO₃^? dynamics in small watersheds during the winter. Physical parameters including snow depth, soil temperature, stream discharge, and water table elevation were monitored during the 2007‐2008 winter in two small catchments in the Adirondack Mountains, New York State. Snowpack persisted from mid‐December to mid‐April, insulating soils such that only two isolated instances of soil frost were observed during the study period. NO₃^? export during a mid‐winter rain‐on‐snowmelt event comprised between 8 and 16% of the total stream NO₃^? load for the four‐month winter study period. This can be compared with the NO₃^? exported during the final spring melt, which comprised between 38 and 45% of the total four‐month winter NO₃^? load. Our findings indicate that minor melt events were detectable with changes in soil temperature, streamflow, groundwater level, and snow depth. But, based on loading, these events were relatively minor contributors to winter NO₃^? loss. A warmer climate and fluctuating snowpack may result in more major mid‐winter melt events and greater NO₃^? export to surface waters.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. We used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of changing climate on southern U.S. pine forest water use. After model predictions of historic drainage were validated, the potential influences of climate change on loblolly pine forest water use was assessed across the region using historic (1951 to 1984) monthly precipitation and air temperature which were modified by two general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs predicted a 3.2°C to 7.2°C increase in average monthly air temperature, a -24 percent to + 31 percent change in monthly precipitation and a -1 percent to + 3 percent change in annual precipitation. As a comparison to the GCMs, a minimum climate change scenario using a constant 2°C increase in monthly air temperature and a 20 percent increase in monthly precipitation was run in conjunction with historic climate data. Predicted changes in forest water drainage were highly dependent on the GCM used. PnET-IIS predicted that along the northern range of loblolly pine, water yield would decrease with increasing leaf area, total evapotranspiration and soil water stress. However, across most of the southern U.S., PnET-IIS predicted decreased leaf area, total evapotranspiration, and soil water stress with an associated increase in water yield. Depending on the GCM and geographic location, predicted leaf area decreased to a point which would no longer sustain loblolly pine forests, and thus indicated a decrease in the southern most range of the species within the region. These results should be evaluated in relation to other changing environmental factors (i.e., CO₂ and O₃) which are not present in the current model.     

AN ORGANIZED SIGNAL IN SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Daily‐to‐weekly discharge during the snowmelt season is highly correlated among river basins in the upper elevations of the central and southern Sierra Nevada (Carson, Walker, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin, Kings, and Kern Rivers). In many cases, the upper Sierra Nevada watershed operates in a single mode (with varying catchment amplitudes). In some years, with appropriate lags, this mode extends to distant mountains. A reason for this coherence is the broad scale nature of synoptic features in atmospheric circulation, which provide anomalous insolation and temperature forcing that span a large region, sometimes the entire western U.S. These correlations may fall off dramatically, however, in dry years when the snowpack is spatially patchy.     

INFILTRATION OF WASTEWATER AND SIMULATED RAINWATER AS AFFECTED BY POLYACRYLAMIDE1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation reduces infiltration rates for subsequent irrigations or rains, thus decreasing the efficiency of water use and impacting watersheds in agricultural areas. Reduced infiltration causes greater runoff with its accompanying erosion, pollution, and sedimentation. Small rates of polyacrylamide (PAM) improve infiltration and reduce erosion on irrigated fields. The effects of PAM on infiltration of rainwater, the longevity of the effects of various rates of PAM, and the effects of repeated or intermittent PAM applications are not understood. This study measured the effects of four PAM application rates (0, 10, 25, and 40 ppm) on the subsequent infiltration of wastewater or simulated rainwater for seven weeks following the initial treatments. Also, effects of repeated and intermittent PAM applications on infiltration were determined. Hydraulic conductivity was determined for each soil column using the falling head method. Two soil types from the coastal plain of south Texas were tested — a soil high in clay (Victoria) and a sandy loam (Willacy). Effects of PAM rates were significant, but effects of water type were not (P > 0.05). Benefits from single PAM applications disappeared within two weeks. Water enriched with PAM is so viscous and infiltrates so slowly that applying PAM in every irrigation event may not be feasible. However, repeating PAM applications every two weeks maintained high infiltration rates on the alternate weeks. This intermittent application of PAM may be a practical approach for improving infiltration rates on irrigated lands.     

INTEGRATING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM,A SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION SYSTEM,AND A PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM1

Harshburger, Brian J., Karen S. Humes, Von P. Walden, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2010. Evaluation of Short-to-Medium Range Streamflow Forecasts Obtained Using an Enhanced Version of SRM. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):603-617. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00437.x Abstract: As demand for water continues to escalate in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. Here, we describe a methodology for generating short-to-medium range (1 to 15 days) streamflow forecasts using an enhanced version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), snow-covered area data derived from MODIS products, data from Snow Telemetry stations, and meteorological forecasts. The methodology was tested on three mid-elevation, snowmelt-dominated basins ranging in size from 1,600 to 3,500 km². To optimize the model performance and aid in its operational implementation, two enhancements have been made to SRM: (1) the use of an antecedent temperature index method to track snowpack cold content, and (2) the use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures to partition precipitation into rain, snow, or a mixture of rain and snow. The comparison of retrospective model simulations with observed streamflow shows that the enhancements significantly improve the model performance. Streamflow forecasts generated using the enhanced version of the model compare well with the observed streamflow for the earlier leadtimes; forecast performance diminishes with leadtime due to errors in the meteorological forecasts. The three basins modeled in this research are typical of many mid-elevation basins throughout the American West, thus there is potential for this methodology to be applied successfully to other mountainous basins.