SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

AN APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: AN ECONOMIC VIEW1

ABSTRACT: Individuals involved in state water resource planning generally have avoided any development of a comprehensive public water planning investment model that would set the stage for quantitative recommendations of a “what ought to be” tone for future water strategies. Three New Hampshire towns were selected to illustrate the usefulness of a mixed integer multiperiod programming model that utilizes hydrologic and economic data for identifying the discounted least cost of water supply, distribution, and scheduling. Comparisons are made regarding the feasibility of a regional water system approach versus independent “town by town” water supplies that presently prevail. To analyze the sensitivity of optimal water planning solutions to projected water demands, variations in these demands are made.     

Available Water Supplies in Beijing,China, Under Single‐ and Multi‐Year Drought

Since its implementation in 2015, the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project (MR‐SNWDP) has transferred an average of 45 billion cubic meters of surface water per year from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River and Hai River Basin in northern China, but how that supply is able to cope with droughts under different scenarios has not been explored. In this study, using the water demand for 2020 as the guaranteed water target, a Water Evaluation and Planning system was used to simulate available water supplies in Beijing under different drought scenarios. In the case of a single‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 16.7%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.3%. In the case of a multi‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 25.3%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.4% and domestic water supply was improved. Our research suggests that to prepare for multi‐year drought in the Beijing area, the SNWDP supports increased supplies to the region that would mitigate drought effects. This study is, however, mostly focused on water supply provision to Beijing and does not comprehensively evaluate other potential impacts. Multiple additional avenues could be pursued that include replenishing groundwater, increasing reservoir storage, and water conservation methods. Further research is needed to explore the relative costs and benefits of these approaches.     

LOCAL OPPOSITION TO THE TRANSFER OF WATER SUPPLIES:AN OKLAHOMA CASE STUDY1

Interregional conflicts over the allocation and transfer of water supplies have occurred with increasing frequency in the contemporary United States. This paper presents the results of a case study of citizen opposition to a proposal to transfer water supplies within Oklahoma. Residents of the area adjacent to Lake Tenkiller in eastern Oklahoma were surveyed concerning their reactions to a proposal of the City of Tulsa to transfer large volumes of water from the reservoir to the city. Results of the survey indicated that a community based concern for preserving local water levels transcended individual self-interests in maintaining Tenkiller's water levels. The results support the recently developed concept of “turf politics,” which suggests that regional and community based considerations tend to dominate interregional locational conflict resolution.     

WATER RIGHTS,EMINENT DOMAIN,AND THE PUBLIC TRUST1

ABSTRACT: Faced with the necessity of meeting growing municipal water requirements in areas where available supplies are completely allocated, numerous cities throughout the West are turning to their eminent domain powers to affect a reallocation of water from less preferred uses to municipal uses, thus bringing about a sharp conflict with agricultural interests. As a basis for discussing these eminent domain powers, this paper begins with a brief review of the development of property rights. The existence of both private and public (social) rights in the “bundle of rights” is noted. In recent years the Public Trust Doctrine has been used to limit private rights in property, and to protect and strengthen social rights. A case study which focuses on a conflict between individual and social interests in water rights is discussed. This case involves the City of Thorton, Colorado which initiated municipal condemnation proceedings to acquire the water rights and structures of two nearby irrigation companies. The case represents an attempt to incorporate the spirit of the Public Trust Doctrine into legislation which sets forth procedures for resolution of similar water rights conflicts that will inevitably become more numerous throughout the West in the future.     

WATER AND WATER RIGHTS TRANSFERS: A NEW POLICY FOR NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Nebraska has abundant supplies of high quality surface and ground water. The U.S. Supreme Court decision in 1982, declaring ground water to be an article of commerce, is widely perceived as giving neighboring states easier access to Nebraska water. Some neighboring states, particularly Colorado and Wyoming, are in water short situations. Additionally, current legal restrictions on certain types of transfers within the State could be inhibiting the “highest and best use” of Nebraska's water. Thus, in 1987 the Nebraska Legislature called for the development of a new water policy for Nebraska that would promote the economically efficient use of water, yet protect the environment as well as the rights of individuals (for example, third parties) and the public. Through an interagency study employing an extensive public involvement process, a policy to be recommended to the Legislature in 1989 emerged. The policy revises the basic definition of water rights and transfers and eliminates most of the inconsistencies in the water allocation system by treating most types of water resources, most types of water users, and most locations of use similarly in the permitting process. (The principal exception is the individual irrigator using ground water on the overlying land where overlying land is one government surveyed section; such use is not defined to be a transfer nor is a permit required.) An impact assessment would be required of most new water uses except on site uses of ground water. Compensation measures could be specified as a condition of the permit where appropriate. The permit would be issued only if the benefits of the proposed transfer clearly outweigh adverse effects that could not be avoided or effectively compensated. The policy allows for the sale or lease of “salvaged” water. It calls for the State to facilitate transfers by acting as a clearinghouse for potential buyers and sellers, and it allows the State to sponsor water projects. An annual fee to be paid by many water users, in order to provide a fund for compensation and for state sponsored water projects, was proposed. However, it met with extensive opposition. Thus, the policy recommends only that the Legislature examine potential funding programs and equitable user fees.     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

DESIGN OF DESALTING PLANTS FOR CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION1

ABSTRACT The selection of an evaporator design must reflect the balancing of captial cost (primarily in heat exchanger surface and vessels) against operating cost (primarily steam cost) to achieve minimum cost. In a conjunctive plant the tendency is to select a low-capital cost, high-operating cost plant. In addition, it is advantageous to use a high-capacity plant which needs to be operated much less of the time than a plant which is sized just at the needed rate. For example, in the study of a possible system to satisfy a future increase of 450 MGD in water supply to New York Qty, a plant of 750 MGD capacity was selected as optimum. This plant, of the advanced VTE-MSF process type, would have a performance ratio of 9 lb product/1000 Btu as compared to 10-13 normally used for base-loaded plants. Steam would be supplied by a multi-unit dual-purpose nuclear power plant. The most economical type of energy supply would be “interruptible”; the steam would be used by a low pressure turbine to generate electricity during periods of peak electrical demand but would be available to the desalting plant at other times. The low pressure turbine would be available as spinning reserve during desalting plant operation. It is estimated that the desalting plant would have a load factor of 27 per cent over its life.     

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a “Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)” to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m³/month or m³/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from ?1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past “point” measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment.     

INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS FOR THE COLORADO RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In many interstate river basins, the institutional arrangements for the governance and management of the shared water resource are not adequately designed to effectively address the many political, legal, social, and economic issues that arise when the demands on the resource exceed the available supplies. Even under normal hydrologic conditions, this problem is frequently seen in the Colorado River Basin. During severe sustained drought, it is likely that the deficiencies of the existing arrangements would present a formidable barrier to an effective drought response, interfering with efforts to quickly and efficiently conserve and reallocate available supplies to support a variety of critical needs. In the United States, several types of regional arrangements are seen for the administration of interstate water resources. These arrangements include compact commissions, interstate councils, basin interagency committees, interagency-interstate commissions, federal-interstate compact commissions, federal regional agencies, and the single federal administrator. Of these options, the federal-interstate compact commission is the most appropriate arrangement for correcting the current deficiencies of the Colorado River institution, under all hydrologic conditions.     

GROUND WATER QUALITY PREDICTION USING CLIMATIC INDICES1

ABSTRACT: Drought affects the quality of ground water in certain aquifers used by municipalities in Kansas. Water quality changes occur as a function of the amount of water available for recharge and hence to dilute more mineralized ground waters. Several measures of meteorological drought, including the Palmer Index and Eagleman Aridity Index, were correlated with water quality data to determine the degree of association. Several locations showed sharp delinces in water quality as the drought progressed. These relationships can be used to predict possible variations in present and future well-water supplies in locations subject to drought induced water quality deterioration.     

CONFLICT ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ALTERNATWE FOR THE MANAYLJNK CANAL1

ABSTRACT: The solution of a water resource allocation problem by an alternative social arrangement is presented. Classical Austrian economic theory and the “new resources economics” provide both theoretical and practical evidence to support the development of well-defined, private property rights to the water resource in question. A conflict analysis demonstrates that management of the Manayunk Canal by a firm would reconcile existing confrontations through compromise use of the water resource. Benefit and cost calculations show that a compromise among industrial and recreational interests, currently competing in the political arena, would increase social benefits.     

ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS FOR WATER SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT Providing adequate water supplies of good quality is becoming a serious problem in many areas of the United States. Some of the alternatives proposed for meeting the growing shortage of clean-water or cheap-water are reallocation, reuse, and importation. This paper outlines a methodology to assess all of these water supply alternatives by examining the amount and time-staging for development of water sources. In conceptualizing the problem, sources of supply are classified in three categories: primary or base supplies, secondary or effluent supplies, and supplementary or imported supplies. A model of the water system is formulated as a “transportation problem” in linear programming depicting the possible sources of supply which can be used to satisfy the requirements of various water users. The optimizing objective in the model is to minimize the cost of water under various assumptions for operating the system. A case study of the Salt Lake Qty, Utah, area is used to illustrate the application of the model in obtaining optimal water supply allocations for projected future demands. Assessment of alternatives in the study include redistribution of supplies, time-staging of supplies and related treatment facilities, and sensitivity of allocations to changes in costs.     

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the most widely used regional drought index. However, there is considerable ambiguity about its value as a measure of hydrologic drought. In this paper the PDSI for climatic divisions in New Jersey is compared to the occurrence within each climatic division of streamflows in their lower quartile for the month (streamflow index), and ground-water levels in their lower quartile for the month (ground-water index). These indices are found to have distinct properties. It is not uncommon for PDSI values to indicate “severe” or “extreme” drought at times when the streamflow or groundwater index is above its lower quartile at many stations within the climatic division. The PDSI values and groundwater index indicate more persistent subnormal conditions than the streamflow index for truncation levels yielding the same total duration of drought over a period. The ground-water index tends to indicate a later beginning to droughts and of the three indices is the most conservative indicator of a drought's end. Drought timing and duration properties for the ground-water index are found to be highly influenced by the average depth to water in the well. Overall, the three indices of drought can provide three very different characterizations of drought. In particular, the results indicate that considerable caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about hydrologic drought from the PDSI.     

MODELING OF WATER SUPPLY/DEMAND IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN, 1970–20201

ABSTRACT: The application of a water balance model in finding “solutions” to the supply/demand problem was demonstrated using the South Platte River basin as a case study. Solutions were ascertained by hand, using both “average” and “stress” supply/demand conditions, and were developed for 1980, 2000, and 2020; nonquantifiable boundary conditions were incorporated by judgement. The solution obtained for a particular set of conditions is not unique and has strong normative characteristics; thus it must be judged by various interest groups having different ethical positions. The water balance model has a tabular display format and so the “model” is merely a simple table, i.e., a “water balance table.” In this work the water balance table was displayed on an eight-foot by eight-foot color-coded magnetic board. The board provides a means to both find and display the needed supply/demand “solution.” The tabular display facilitates understanding of the systemwide solution and the formulation of value judgments. Based upon these value judgments and an initial “straw man” solution, successive negotiated solutions can be found which can minimize “conflict.”     

WATER USE CONFLICT NEAR MADISON,NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Nebraska statutes give first preference for use of ground water to domestic purposes, second to agriculture, and third to manufacturing or industrial purposes. Rapid growth in the number of irrigation wells has caused an increasing number of water use conflicts. One such conflict arose from the installation and use of an irrigation well near Madison in Madison County, Nebraska. Pumping from the irrigation well coincided with head declines in nearby domestic wells screened in the same sand and gravel, but appeared unrelated to water level changes in wells screened in a higher saturated sand. A drawdown-recovery test was performed to determine the degree of hydraulic connection between the wells involved. Operation of the irrigation well was determined to be the cause of the head decline in nearby domestic wells screened in the same sand and gravel. Partly as a result of this conflict, legislation recently introduced into the state legislature would require that wells of higher preference be “reasonably” constructed if wells of lower preference are to be held liable for head loss.     

Potential Economic Impacts of Environmental Flows Following a Possible Listing of Endangered Texas Freshwater Mussels

Texas water resources, already taxed by drought and population growth, could be further stressed by possible listings of endangered aquatic species. This study estimated potential economic impacts of environmental flows (EFs) for five freshwater unionid mussels in three Central Texas basins (Brazos, Colorado, and Guadalupe‐San Antonio Rivers) that encompass 36% of Texas (~246,000 km²). A water availability model projected reductions in water supply to power, commercial and industrial, municipal, and agriculture sectors in response to possible EFs for mussels. Single‐year economic impacts were calculated using publicly available data with and without water transfers. Benefits of EFs should also be assessed, should critical habitat be proposed. Potential economic losses were highest during droughts, but were nominal (<$1 M) in wetter years — even with high EFs. Reduced supplies to San Antonio area power plants caused worst‐case impacts of a single‐year shutdown up to $107 million (M) during drought with high EFs. For other sectors in the study area, water transfers reduced worst‐case losses from $80 to $11 M per year. Implementing innovative water management strategies such as water markets, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, aquifer storage and recovery could mitigate economic impacts if mussels — or other widely distributed aquatic species — were listed. However, approaches for defining EFs and strategies for mitigating economic impacts of EFs are needed.     

THE ENHANCED ROLE OF WATER CONSERVATION IN THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER PROJECTS1

The concept of water conservation has increased in importance because of revisions in the rules and procedures for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal water projects. These revisions include a requirement that nonstructural and water conservation measures be incorporated into economic assessments of projects. Project analyses will now proceed as if water supplies were allocated “most effectively,” that is, to their highest valued uses. A related requirement provides that the net benefits of any project should now be valued using willingness to pay measures. A specific cost-benefit methodology accommodating the revisions is constructed and discussed. Informational requirements for applying this methodology are identified. In addition to being consistent with federal mandates, this technique offers important advantages over the traditional “requirements” approach to water supply planning.     

EFFECT OF SEMI‐PERCHED GROUND WATER ON MONITORING OF GROUND WATER LEVELS IN A DEVELOPED AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Interpretation of ground water level changes in a developed aquifer usually relies on reference to some benchmark such as “predevelopment” ground water levels, changes from fall to fall and/or spring to spring, or to determination of maximum stress during the pumping season. The assumption is that ground water levels measured in the monitoring well accurately reflect the state of the ground water resource in terms of quantity in storage and the effects of local pumping. This assumption is questionable based on the patterns shown in continuous hydrographs of water levels in monitoring wells in Nebraska, and wells installed to determine vertical gradients. These hydrographs show clear evidence for vertical ground water gradients and recharge from overlying parts of the aquifer system to deeper zones in which production wells are screened. The classical concept of semi‐perched ground water, as described by Meinzer, is demonstrated by these hydrographs. The presence of semi‐perched ground water (Meinzer definition, there is no intervening unsaturated zone) invalidates the use of measured ground water levels in regional observation programs for detailed numerical management of the resource. Failure to recognize the Meinzer effect has led to faulty management. The best use of data from the observation well network would be for detection of trends and education unless it is clearly understood what is being measured.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVATION POLICY1

Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.