Analysing the effects of soil properties changes associated with land use changes on the simulated water balance: A comparison of three hydrological catchment models for scenario analysis

This paper presents results of a model comparison study within the LUCHEM framework (‘assessing the impact of Land Use Change on Hydrology by Ensemble Modelling’) where the effects of land use change on catchment water balances were assessed with various hydrological catchment models. The motivation for this part of LUCHEM is that it is well known that land use changes may induce changes in soil chemical and soil physical properties (e.g. bulk density). Unfortunately the effects of land use change on soil hydraulic properties are seldom investigated directly, but some information on changes in bulk density is available. Changes in bulk density can be used as input for pedotransfer functions to derive changes in soil hydraulic model parameters. In this study, three different catchment models (SWAT, TOPLATS, WASIM) are compared with respect to their sensitivity to land use change with and without consideration of associated changes in soil parameterisation. The results reveal that different models show a different sensitivity to the change in soil parameterisation while the magnitude of absolute changes in simulated evapotranspiration and discharge is similar. SWAT calculates largest changes in the water balance in a German mesoscale catchment. TOPLATS also shows significant changes in the calculated catchment water balances as well as in the runoff generation while WASIM reacts least sensitive. While TOPLATS and WASIM show similar patterns with respect to changes in the water flows for all subcatchments and land use scenarios, SWAT results are similar for the different catchments, but show scenario specific patterns. In relation to the magnitude of the effects on simulated water flows induced by land use change, the significance of considering soil change effects depends on both, the scenario definition and on the model sensitivity to soil parameterisation. For two of the three land use scenarios representing an intensified land use, SWAT and TOPLATS simulate water balance changes in the same order of magnitude due to both, land use and soil property changes. Therefore, a consideration of changes in soil properties as part of land use change scenario analysis is recommended. Future field work needs to aim at the validation of the assumed dependency of soil hydrologic properties on land use change.     

Modelling the impacts of land-use and drainage density on the water balance of a lowland–floodplain landscape in northeast Germany

This study presents the modelling approach and impact assessment of different strategies for managing wetland water resources and groundwater dynamics of landscapes which are characterised by the hydrological interactions of floodplains and the adjacent lowlands. The assessment of such impacts is based on the analysis of simulation results of complex scenarios of land-use changes and changes of the density of the drainage-network. The method has been applied to the 198 km² Lower Havel River catchment as a typical example of a lowland–floodplain landscape. The model used consists of a coupled soil water and groundwater model, where the latter one is additionally coupled to the surface channel network. Thus, the hydrological processes of the variable saturated soil zone as well as lateral groundwater flow and the interactions between surface water and groundwater are simulated in an integrated manner. The model was validated for several years of significantly different meteorological conditions. The comparison of lateral and vertical water balance components showed the dominance of lateral flow processes and the importance of the interactions between surface water and groundwater for the overall water balance and the hydrological state of that type of landscape.The simulation of land-use change scenarios showed only minor effects of land-use change on the water balance and groundwater recharge. Changes of groundwater recharge were particularly small within the wetland areas being part of the floodplain where interactions between surface water and groundwater are most pronounced. Alterations in vertical groundwater recharge were counter-balanced by the lateral interaction between groundwater and surface water. More significant deviations in groundwater recharge and storage were observed in the more peripheral areas towards the catchment boundaries which are characterised by greater groundwater distance from the surface and less intense of ground water–surface water interactions.However, the simulation results assuming a coarsening of the drainage network density showed the importance of drainage structure and geometry for the water balance: The removal of the artificial draining ditches in the floodplain would result in significant alterations of total groundwater recharge, i.e., less recharge from winter to early summer and an increase of groundwater recharge during summer and autumn. Furthermore the different effects of groundwater recharge alterations on the dynamics of groundwater stages within the wetland areas close to the floodplains compared to the more peripheral areas could be quantified. Finally, it will be discussed that a well-adjusted co-ordination of different management measures is required to reach a sustainable water resources management of such lowland–floodplain landscapes.     

Eco-hydrological modelling in a highly regulated lowland catchment to find measures for improving water quality

Water quality modelling in the meso-scale Rhin catchment in the German federal state Brandenburg was done (1) to answer some specific questions concerning identification of point and diffuse sources of nutrient pollution in the catchment, (2) to assess the influences of possible climate and land use changes on water quantity and quality and (3) to evaluate potential measures to be done in order to achieve a “good ecological status” of the river and its lakes as required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD).The Rhin catchment is a typical highly regulated lowland river basin in Northern Germany. The regulations complicate water quantity and quality modelling in the catchment. The research was done by using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which simulates water and nutrient fluxes in soil and vegetation, as well as transport of water and nutrients to and within the river network. The modelling period was from 1981 until 2005. After calibrating the hydrological processes at different gauges within the basin with satisfactory results, water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) modelling was done taking into account the emissions of different point sources (sewage treatment plants, etc.) and identifying the amount of diffuse pollution caused mainly by agriculture.For suggesting some feasible measures to improve water quality and to reduce diffuse pollution considering possible climate and land use changes, different reasonable scenarios were applied in consultation with the Environmental Agency of Brandenburg (LUA). The study revealed that the amount of water discharge has significant influence on the concentration of nutrients in the river network, and that nitrogen pollution, caused mainly by diffuse sources, could be notably reduced by application of agricultural measures, whereas the pollution by phosphorus could be diminished most effectively by the reduction of point source emissions.     

Hierarchical regulation of nitrogen export from urban catchments: interactions of storms and landscapes.

In urban catchments of arid central Arizona, we investigate how the export of mineral and organic nitrogen (N) in storm runoff is regulated by interactions between local landscape characteristics and broader scale storm features. First, we test whether N export is more a function of (1) processes that affect N concentration in runoff or (2) the propensity of the catchment to convey rainfall as runoff. With data pooled across catchments, the mass of N in export (load) is determined by processes regulating runoff N concentration. There are exceptions when catchments are examined individually, where N load from some catchments is determined by the hydrologic responsiveness of the catchment. Second, we investigate the relationship between N export and catchment features. Loads per catchment area were greater from more impervious catchments, probably because impervious catchments held more N in a mobilizable phase and conveyed more rainfall as overland flow. Loads per area were lower from larger catchments, possibly owing to more N-retention hot spots in larger catchments. Catchments with the greatest N exports were those with commercial land use, and loads decreased as development became less prevalent or as residential replaced industrial land use. Third, we investigated how catchment features moderated direct responses of N export to storms. Export was less correlated with storm features in catchments that were larger, more pervious, and less industrial. Results support an "N build and flush" hypothesis, which purports that there is little biotic processing of N deposited to arid, urban surfaces with little organic matter. The rate and duration of deposition determine the size of the mobile N pool. Any amount of rainfall capable of generating overland flow would entrain nearly all mobilizable N and export it from the catchment. Nonetheless, these results suggest that, even with daunting seasonal and interannual variability in storm conditions, material export can be reduced by managing intrinsic catchment features.     

SWAT parameterization for the identification of critical diffuse pollution source areas under data limitations

For lowering sediment, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution of surface water bodies at the catchment scale, environmental legislation require programs of pollution abatement measures. To be able to ensure the cost-effectiveness of such programs we first need to identify high risk areas, which give rise to increased pollutant runoff. Process-based GIS models provide the opportunity to identify such critical areas and hence better target diffuse pollution abatement actions. However, these models are data intensive and their spatially-distributed parameterization in poorly monitored catchments is not feasible without extensive input data pre-processing and significant simplifying assumptions. This study implements the widely-used SWAT river basin model (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to study a medium-sized Greek catchment with the typical data limitations met at the national level, in order to identify critical diffuse pollution source areas that may serve as the key areas for meeting the objective of ‘good ecological status’ of water bodies set by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Model parameterization and evaluation are presented along with the decisions made to overcome problems related to data representation in the catchment, in an effort to provide guidance on SWAT modeling in areas with similar characteristics. The results show that sediments and nutrients could be adequately reproduced in large time steps (monthly or seasonal) and that even with the current data limitations, the seasonal variation and the most critical areas of pollutant losses to waters could be adequately identified. The study proposes a transparent modeling approach under data limitations without neglecting possible deficiencies; however, it maintains that the SWAT model, if appropriately parameterized with respect to the land-use and soil differentiation within a limited-gauged catchment, can still facilitate the selection and placement of suitable practices across the landscape for a cost-effective diffused pollution management.     

Integrating wetlands and riparian zones in river basin modelling

Wetlands, and in particular riparian wetlands, represent an interface between the catchment area and the aquatic environment. They control the exchange of water and related chemical fluxes from the upper catchment area to surface waters like streams and lakes. Their influence on water and nutrient balances has been investigated mainly at the patch scale. In this study an attempt was made (a) to integrate riparian zones and wetlands into eco-hydrological river basin modelling, and (b) to quantify the impacts of riparian wetland processes on water and nutrient fluxes in a meso-scale catchment located in the northeastern German lowland. The investigation was performed by analysing hydro-chemical field data and applying the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was extended to reproduce the relevant water and nutrient flows and retention processes at the catchment scale in general, and in riparian zones and wetlands in particular. The main extensions introduced in the model were: (1) implementation of daily groundwater table dynamics at the hydrotope level, (2) implementation of water and nutrient uptake by plants from groundwater in riparian zones and wetlands, and (3) assessment of nutrient retention in groundwater and interflow. The simulation results indicate that wetlands, though they represent relatively small parts of the total catchment area, may have a significant impact on the overall water and nutrient balances of the catchment. The uncertainty of the simulation results is considerably high, with the main sources of uncertainty being the model parameters representing the geo-hydrology and the input data for land use management.     

Application of a water quality model in the White Cart water catchment,Glasgow, UK

Water quality models of urban systems have previously focused on point source (sewerage system) inputs. Little attention has been given to diffuse inputs and research into diffuse pollution has been largely confined to agriculture sources. This paper reports on new research that is aimed at integrating diffuse inputs into an urban water quality model. An integrated model is introduced that is made up of four modules: hydrology, contaminant point sources, nutrient cycling and leaching. The hydrology module, T & T consists of a TOPMODEL (a TOPography-based hydrological MODEL), which simulates runoff from pervious areas and a two-tank model, which simulates runoff from impervious urban areas. Linked into the two-tank model, the contaminant point source module simulates the overflow from the sewerage system in heavy rain. The widely known SOILN (SOIL Nitrate model) is the basis of nitrogen cycle module. Finally, the leaching module consists of two functions: the production function and the transfer function. The production function is based on SLIM (Solute Leaching Intermediate Model) while the transfer function is based on the flushing hypothesis which postulates a relationship between contaminant concentrations in the receiving water course and the extent to which the catchment is saturated. This paper outlines the modelling methodology and the model structures that have been developed. An application of this model in the White Cart catchment (Glasgow) is also included.     

Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend.     

Estimating the area affected by phosphorus runoff in an Everglades wetland: a comparison of universal kriging and Bayesian kriging

Phosphorus-enriched agriculture runoff is believed to be the leading cause of ecosystem changes of Everglades wetlands. To study this effect, it is necessary to estimate the area of the affected region. In this study, Bayesian kriging and universal kriging were used to estimate the area by analysing the data collected by Reddy et al. (1991). The background level of the soil's total phosphorus concentration is usedto determine whether the region is affected by the agriculture runoff, through an indicator function. The area of the affected region was represented by the integration of the indicator function over the entire wetland. The expected value of the affected area was calculated using the results derived from Bayesian and universal kriging. The outcome indicates that universal kriging is sensitive to specification of thecovariance model. It was observed that universal kriging and Bayesian kriging yield comparable results, if the specified covariance structures are of similar nature.     

Evaluating the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland and land use changes using a hydrological model, a water balance model, and remote sensing

Environmental flows are critical to sustaining a variety of plant and animal communities in wetlands. However, evaluation of environmental flows is hampered by the problem of hydrological and ecological data shortage, especially in many developing countries such as China. Based on a hydrological model, a water balance model and remote sensing data, we assessed the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland with limited data. The hydrological model provides input data for the water balance model of the wetland, and the remote sensing data can be used to assess land use changes. Integration of these two models with the remote sensing data revealed both the environmental flows of the Wolonghu wetland and the relationships between these environmental flows and land use changes. The results demonstrate that environmental flows have direct and indirect influences on the wetland ecosystem and should be linked to sustainable wetland management.     

皖南丘陵地区小流域氮素径流输出的动态变化

以亚热带北部皖南丘陵地区小流域定位实地观测为基础 ,研究了农林共存小流域氮素径流输出规律。发现小流域氮素径流输出季节性变化明显。降雨和施肥是影响这一变化的重要因子 ,模拟分析表明 ,它们与氮素输出之间具有很好的线性相关关系     

A simplified approach to implement forest eco-hydrological properties in regional hydrological modelling

The topic of this paper is a simplified model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all hydrologically relevant processes. It includes interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, mortality and simple management practice. It was implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The approach was tested on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and common oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea).The results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI and satisfactory simulation of litter production (annual mean value). A comparison of the date of May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak (1980–1990) with observed data of the DWD (German Weather Service) shows a good reproduction of the temporal dynamic. The daily simulation of transpiration shows an excellent correlation of r = 0.81 for the year 1998 but only r = 0.65 for 1999. The interception losses were also simulated and compared with weekly observed data showing satisfactory results in the vegetation periods and annual sums, but worse agreement in autumn and spring time. A regional assessment study was done in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany) to test the applicability and multi-criteria evaluation capabilities of the approach on the landscape and catchments scale using forest data, daily river discharge and regional water balance.     

Auswahl repräsentativer Standorte zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von gentechnisch veränderten Pflanzen in Nord-Deutschland

Goal and Scope

The use of genetically modified plants (GMP) in agriculture is increasing rapidly. While GMP in North and South America are already established an extensive cultivation in Germany is yet to come. Risk assessment on possible effects of released GMP are mainly based on empirical studies with a small spatial extent (laboratories, small-scale field trials). The joint research project ‘Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified rape (GenEERA)’ aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) by the use of individual based models. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rapefields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to landscapes.

Data and Methods

The statistically founded selection of modelling sites was performed by a compilation of available indicators within a GIS environment which are supposed to be important for the dispersal and the persistence of oilseed rape. Meteorological data on precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) collected at up to 1,200 monitoring sites from 1961–1990 were as well as data on wind conditions (W) aggregated multivariate-statistically by Ward cluster analysis. An ecoregionalisation was used for characterising Northern Germany ecologically. Phenological data on the start of the oil seed rape bloom differentiated in the monitoring periods 1961–1990 and 1991–1999, respectively, were regionalised by performing variogram analysis and kriging interpolation. These maps were used to select appropriate Landsat images to identify rape fields by remote sensing algorithms as well as to define the respective flowering periods for individual based modelling.

Results

The separately generated P-T-S-W-Cluster were aggregated to four homogenic climatic regions. In combination with agricultural clusters defining typical landuse patterns (crop rotation, cultivation management) eight model regions were derived which describe the climatic and agronomic variations in Northern Germany. For each of these regions a representative monitoring site was selected serving for individual based modelling. At last, the modelling results were extrapolated back to the model regions applying corresponding GIS queries.

Discussion

The generated climatic regions reflect the transition of marine climate at the North Sea to continental climate in Northeast Germany. The shift in flowering of oil seed rape coincides with other studies on phenological changes of agricultural crops and wild plants.

Conclusions

Due to the huge calculation efforts and the lack of adequate land registers it was not possible to simulate the potential dispersal of GM oil seed rape at farm scale. Thus, generalisations were used to describe the variations of relevant ecological drivers affecting the dispersal of GMP. It could be shown that the aggregation of those factors to homogenic climatic regions was a successful approximation.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Due to the limited empirical data base it is necessary to validate and substantiate the modelling results by a GMP monitoring. The EU Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release of genetically modified organisms into the environment stipulates assessment of direct and indirect effects of GMP on humans and the environment by case-specific monitoring and general surveillance. It should be realised as soon as possible, since the release and the cultivation of GMP in Germany have been started, already. The monitoring should be complemented by the implementation of a web-based geoinformation system (WebGIS) which enables access to relevant geodata and monitoring data and assists in analysing possible GMP impacts.     

Defining and modelling the coastal zone affected by the Po river (Italy)

One of the most important sources of pollution in coastal zones (CZ) is certainly that one produced by human activities in the associated river basin. Understanding the linkage between water quality in CZ and river catchments is important in order to better assess CZ processes and to evaluate different management options aimed at improving the coastal ecosystem state. CZ water quality targets as identified by the Water Framework Directive (EC 2000/60) require an accurate study of the effects of pollutant loads coming from river discharge.In order to evaluate the impacts of human activities in river catchments on the associated coastal zone, a sound definition for this geographic area is needed. Many definitions for this area have been proposed in different contexts. The definition is generally built upon a particular goal, and is henceforth highly variable according to the different purposes. In this paper a general methodology allowing to discern those areas of the sea that are directly influenced by fluvial discharge is presented. The methodology is based on the variation pattern of sea water characteristics, and provides a numerical evaluation of this influence. In particular an analysis based on salinity as tracer, results in a sound definition of this area. The methodology has been applied on the case study of the Po river. Due to the significant nutrient loads discharged by the river, the CZ associated with Po is affected by severe eutrophication phenomena that have important consequences on the ecosystem and on the socio-economy of the area.In order to study the impacts of nutrients loads carried by the river, a water quality model (WASP6) has been implemented. The model simulates the seasonal variability of nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass and dissolved oxygen. Using the CZ model is possible to compare the effects of variations of nutrient loads on the biochemical (short term) and ecological (long term) quality of the coastal environment. This is accomplished by feeding nutrients loads forecasted for different scenarios by the catchment model (MONERIS) as forcing functions to the CZ model. This way the effect of the different catchment management scenarios are propagated to the CZ model, and the trophic conditions of the coastal ecosystem evaluated using TRIX.This study has been developed in the context of the European project EUROCAT.     

雷州桉树人工林小集水区地形分析与静态水文学模拟

利用小集水区生态水文学模型-Topog模型对雷州半岛桉树人工林纪家示范小集水区进行了地形分析和静态水文学模拟。地形分析表明，该集水区地表较为平坦，集水区总面积为0．63km^2，夏季、冬季与春（秋）分平均太阳辐射值分别为44MJ.m^-2．d^-1、25MJ.m^-2．d^-1和34MJ.m^-2．d^-1。在考虑太阳辐射影响与不考虑太阳辐影响两种情况下进行了集水区土壤含水量指数（WI）静态模拟。设定不同的静态壤中流参数值，Topog模型模拟结果表明，静态壤中流越大，在集水区内高WI的分布范围越大，也即土壤含水量越高。在考虑太阳辐射影响的条件下，分别设置不同的土壤导水率（T）、地表阴蔽系数（Es）、平均降雨最（R）进行了模拟。模拟结果表明，WI分布依各参数的不同而变化。T越大，在集水区内的WI重新分布越快；T越小，在集水区内WI趋向于平均分布。Es越大，集水区土壤所保持的含水量越高。集水区WI随R增大而有升高趋势。     

Estimation and optimization operation in dealing with inflow and infiltration of a hybrid sewerage system in limited infrastructure facility data

Inflow and infiltration (I/I) are serious problems in hybrid sewerage systems. Limited sewerage information impedes the estimation accuracy of I/I for each catchment. A new method dealing with I/I of a large-scale hybrid sewerage system with limited infrastructure facility data is proposed in this study. The catchment of representative pump stations was adopted to demonstrate the homological catchments that have similar wastewater fluctuation characteristics. Homological catchments were clustered using the self-organizing map (SOM) analysis based on long-term daily flow records of 50 pumping stations. An assessment index was applied to describe the I/I and overflow risk in the catchment based on the hourly wastewater quality and quantity data of representative pump stations. The potential operational strategy of homological catchments was determined by the assessment index of representative pump stations. The simulation results of the potential operational strategy indicated that the optimized operation strategy could reduce surcharge events and significantly improve the quality of wastewater treatment plant effluent.

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Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.