Incorporating multidimensional behavior into a risk management tool for a critically endangered and migratory species

Conservation of migratory species exhibiting wide-ranging and multidimensional behaviors is challenged by management efforts that only utilize horizontal movements or produce static spatial–temporal products. For the deep-diving, critically endangered eastern Pacific leatherback turtle, tools that predict where turtles have high risks of fisheries interactions are urgently needed to prevent further population decline. We incorporated horizontal–vertical movement model results with spatial–temporal kernel density estimates and threat data (gear-specific fishing) to develop monthly maps of spatial risk. Specifically, we applied multistate hidden Markov models to a biotelemetry data set (n = 28 leatherback tracks, 2004–2007). Tracks with dive information were used to characterize turtle behavior as belonging to 1 of 3 states (transiting, residential with mixed diving, and residential with deep diving). Recent fishing effort data from Global Fishing Watch were integrated with predicted behaviors and monthly space-use estimates to create maps of relative risk of turtle–fisheries interactions. Drifting (pelagic) longline fishing gear had the highest average monthly fishing effort in the study region, and risk indices showed this gear to also have the greatest potential for high-risk interactions with turtles in a residential, deep-diving behavioral state. Monthly relative risk surfaces for all gears and behaviors were added to South Pacific TurtleWatch (SPTW) ( https://www.upwell.org/sptw ), a dynamic management tool for this leatherback population. These modifications will refine SPTW's capability to provide important predictions of potential high-risk bycatch areas for turtles undertaking specific behaviors. Our results demonstrate how multidimensional movement data, spatial–temporal density estimates, and threat data can be used to create a unique conservation tool. These methods serve as a framework for incorporating behavior into similar tools for other aquatic, aerial, and terrestrial taxa with multidimensional movement behaviors.     

Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management

Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.     

濒危植物疏花水柏枝种子萌发的生态学特性

疏花水柏枝Myricaria laxiflora分布于我国三峡从宜昌至重庆段长江干流的消落带,分布区十分狭小.三峡工程兴建后,疏花水柏枝将失去绝大部分的生境而成为濒危物种.通过设置一系列控制实验测试了土壤水质量分数,温度和土壤类型对疏花水柏枝种子萌发的生态学的影响.实验结果表明,土壤水质量分数、温度和土壤类型对种子萌发率都有显著影响.其中种子萌发率随土壤水质量分数增加而增大,土壤水质量分数达到饱和程度时萌发率达到最大值;高温条件下的种子萌发率高于低温,种子萌发率在21～27℃达到最大值;种子在河沙基质上萌发好于在沙土基质上.结合分布区萌发季节的环境条件分析,土壤水质量分数是限制该物种分布于消落带的关键作用因子.据此就该物种的种群保护与重建提出了一些建议.     

Irreversible land use and the preservation of endangered species

An alternative derivation of the irreversibility concept, with an application to the preservation of endangered species, is presented in this paper. The analysis involves a standard intertemporal welfare maximization procedure and is interested in the allocation of land between the production of economic goods and the preservation of species. Conversion of habitat is assumed to be irreversible. It is shown that the existence of utility value for species stocks, combined with increasing severity of the irreversibility constraint implies less conversion of species habitat than would occur in the absence of irreversibility.     

Poor-data and data-poor species stock assessment using a Bayesian hierarchical approach

Appropriate inference for stocks or species with low-quality data (poor data) or limited data (data poor) is extremely important. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are especially applicable to small-area, small-sample-size estimation problems because they allow poor-data species to borrow strength from species with good-quality data. We used a hammerhead shark complex as an example to investigate the advantages of using hierarchical Bayesian models in assessing the status of poor-data and data-poor exploited species. The hammerhead shark complex (Sphyrna spp.) along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the United States is composed of three species: the scalloped hammerhead (S. lewini), the great hammerhead (S. mokarran), and the smooth hammerhead (S. zygaena) sharks. The scalloped hammerhead comprises 70-80% of the catch and has catch and relative abundance data of good quality, whereas great and smooth hammerheads have relative abundance indices that are both limited and of low quality presumably because of low stock density and limited sampling. Four hierarchical Bayesian state-space surplus production models were developed to simulate variability in population growth rates, carrying capacity, and catchability of the species. The results from the hierarchical Bayesian models were considerably more robust than those of the nonhierarchical models. The hierarchical Bayesian approach represents an intermediate strategy between traditional models that assume different population parameters for each species and those that assume all species share identical parameters. Use of the hierarchical Bayesian approach is suggested for future hammerhead shark stock assessments and for modeling fish complexes with species-specific data, because the poor-data species can borrow strength from the species with good data, making the estimation more stable and robust.     

Bayesian estimation of species relative abundances and habitat preferences using opportunistic data

We develop a new statistical procedure to monitor relative species abundances and their respective preferences for different habitat types, using opportunistic data. Following Giraud et al. (Biometrics 72(2):649–658, 2015), we combine the opportunistic data with some standardized data in order to correct the bias inherent to the opportunistic data collection. Species observations are modeled by Poisson distributions whose parameters quantify species abundances and habitat preferences, and are estimated using Bayesian computations. Our main contributions are (i) to tackle the bias induced by habitat selection behaviors, (ii) to handle data where the habitat type associated to each observation is unknown, (iii) to estimate probabilities of selection of habitat for the species. As an illustration, we estimate common bird species habitat preferences and abundances in the region of Aquitaine (France).     

On the conflicts of wildlife management in Africa

SUMMARY

The paper analyses the conflict between wildlife conservation and the costs and benefits obtained from it in an East African context. A well defined agency is managing a national park of fixed area. Wildlife is also assumed to be ‘owned’ by the park authority. The park owner has therefore economic incentives to conserve the wildlife. The management policy, however, does not take into account the damage caused to the production of the agropastoralists living in the proximity of the park by the wildlife roaming freely in and out of the park. The conflict is first analysed in a one-species framework. Next, the model is extented to a two-species framework where the species compete for grazing lands.     

The effectiveness of the US endangered species act: An econometric analysis using matching methods

Diametrically opposed views of the effectiveness of the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) co-exist more than 30 years after the Act's creation. The evidence marshaled to date for and against the ESA suffers from a problem common in analyses of biodiversity protection measures: the absence of a well-chosen control group. We demonstrate how matching methods can be used to select such a control group and thereby estimate how species listed under the ESA would have fared had they not been listed. Our results show that listing a species under the ESA is, on average, detrimental to species recovery if not combined with substantial government funds. In contrast, listed species with such funding tend to improve. Our analysis offers not only new insights into a controversial debate, but also a methodology to guide conservation scientists in evaluating the effectiveness of society's responses to biodiversity loss.     

Abundance and survival rates of green turtles in an urban environment: coexistence of humans and an endangered species

Longitudinal capture-mark-recapture data were used to estimate abundance and survival rates for green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in San Diego Bay, California, USA. These turtles were closely associated with warm effluent from a power plant during winter months. The life stage distribution of green turtles in the bay ranged from post-pelagic juveniles to adults (44.0–110.4 cm straight carapace length). During 99 capture sessions between December 2, 1990, and March 25, 2009, 96 individual green turtles were caught. To estimate abundance and survival rates, robust-design mark-recapture models were fitted to capture-recapture histories using software MARK. The estimated annual survival rate was 0.861 (SE = 0.147, 95% CI = 0.356–0.986), whereas annual abundance ranged from 16 (SE = 6.3, 95% CI = 4–29) to 61 (SE = 13.2, 95% CI = 36–88). This study provides the first survival rate and abundance estimates for a green turtle foraging population in the highly industrialized San Diego Bay.     

Exploring fisheries strategies for the western English Channel using an ecosystem model

An ecosystem model of the western English Channel ecosystem in 1994 was used to explore the effects of the use of a fishing policy optimization routine on profits, number of jobs and ecosystem structure. The optimization for single objective led to the specialization of the fishing fleet, with some fleet types being almost excluded. The profits and mainly the job optimizations led to big changes in the ecosystem structure, with loss of diversity, but the overall biomass of all vertebrate groups represented in the model increased considerably. For the objective focusing on ecosystem structure, there was an increase in biodiversity, with many long-lived groups predicted to increase, although the overall vertebrate biomass suffered just a small increase. An “ideal” mixed policy configuration was found when slightly greater weight was given to ecosystem structure than was given to profits and jobs. This scenario led to an overall reduction in effort but also to increased profits and biodiversity, while keeping the number of jobs at the same level as the baseline estimates. The results of the optimizations showed that the average trophic level of the catches is quite resistant to changes in the underlying system structure. On the other hand, despite the high level of aggregation of the model structure, a biodiversity index estimated by the model presented large changes as a function of the weights placed on the single policy functions, reflecting the changes in the system structure. The output of the application of the fishing optimization presented here should be considered in qualitative rather than in quantitative terms as an aid and part contribution to the complicated discussions on future long term management actions. Nonetheless it points to an overall reduction in fishing capacity, an objective widely accepted within the scientific community, while keeping the fishery in a profitable state.     

Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks.

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.     

Clarifying values,risk perceptions,and attitudes to resolve or avoid social conflicts in invasive species management

Decision makers and researchers recognize the need to effectively confront the social dimensions and conflicts inherent to invasive species research and management. Yet, despite numerous contentious situations that have arisen, no systematic evaluation of the literature has examined the commonalities in the patterns and types of these emergent social issues. Using social and ecological keywords, we reviewed trends in the social dimensions of invasive species research and management and the sources and potential solutions to problems and conflicts that arise around invasive species. We integrated components of cognitive hierarchy theory and risk perceptions theory to provide a conceptual framework to identify, distinguish, and provide understanding of the driving factors underlying disputes associated with invasive species. In the ISI Web of Science database, we found 15,915 peer‐reviewed publications on biological invasions, 124 of which included social dimensions of this phenomenon. Of these 124, 28 studies described specific contentious situations. Social approaches to biological invasions have emerged largely in the last decade and have focused on both environmental social sciences and resource management. Despite being distributed in a range of journals, these 124 articles were concentrated mostly in ecology and conservation‐oriented outlets. We found that conflicts surrounding invasive species arose based largely on differences in value systems and to a lesser extent stakeholder and decision maker's risk perceptions. To confront or avoid such situations, we suggest integrating the plurality of environmental values into invasive species research and management via structured decision making techniques, which enhance effective risk communication that promotes trust and confidence between stakeholders and decision makers. Clarificar los Valores, Percepciones de Riesgo y Actitudes para Resolver o Evitar Conflictos Sociales en el Manejo de Especies Invasoras     

Fragmentation effects on an endangered species across a gradient from the interior to edge of its range

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects individual species is complicated by challenges associated with quantifying species-specific habitat and spatial variability in fragmentation effects within a species’ range. We aggregated a 29-year breeding survey data set for the endangered marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) from >42,000 forest sites throughout the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) of the United States. We built a species distribution model (SDM) in which occupied sites were linked with Landsat imagery to quantify murrelet-specific habitat and then used occupancy models to test the hypotheses that fragmentation negatively affects murrelet breeding distribution and that these effects are amplified with distance from the marine foraging habitat toward the edge of the species’ nesting range. Murrelet habitat declined in the Pacific Northwest by 20% since 1988, whereas the proportion of habitat comprising edges increased by 17%, indicating increased fragmentation. Furthermore, fragmentation of murrelet habitat at landscape scales (within 2 km of survey stations) negatively affected occupancy of potential breeding sites, and these effects were amplified near the range edge. On the coast, the odds of occupancy decreased by 37% (95% confidence interval [CI] –54 to 12) for each 10% increase in edge habitat (i.e., fragmentation), but at the range edge (88 km inland) these odds decreased by 99% (95% CI 98 to 99). Conversely, odds of murrelet occupancy increased by 31% (95% CI 14 to 52) for each 10% increase in local edge habitat (within 100 m of survey stations). Avoidance of fragmentation at broad scales but use of locally fragmented habitat with reduced quality may help explain the lack of murrelet population recovery. Further, our results emphasize that fragmentation effects can be nuanced, scale dependent, and geographically variable. Awareness of these nuances is critical for developing landscape-level conservation strategies for species experiencing broad-scale habitat loss and fragmentation.     

The dilemma of pest suppression in the conservation of endangered species

In the conservation of endangered species, suppression of a population of one native species to benefit another poses challenges. Examples include predator control and nest parasite reduction. Less obvious is the control of blood-feeding arthropods. We conducted a case study of the effect of native black flies (Simulium spp.) on reintroduced Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Our intent was to provide a science-driven approach for determining the effects of blood-feeding arthropods on endangered vertebrates and identifying optimal management actions for managers faced with competing objectives. A multiyear experiment demonstrated that black flies reduce nest success in cranes by driving incubating birds off their nests. We used a decision-analytic approach to develop creative management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among competing objectives. We identified 4 management objectives: establish a self-sustaining crane population, improve crane well-being, maintain native black flies as functional components of the ecosystem, and minimize costs. We next identified potential management alternatives: do nothing, suppress black flies, force crane renesting to occur after the activity period of black flies, relocate releases of cranes, suppress black flies and relocate releases, or force crane renesting and relocate releases. We then developed predictions on constructed scales of 0 (worst-performing alternative) to 1 (best-performing alternative) to indicate how alternative actions performed in terms of management objectives. The optimal action depended on the relative importance of each objective to a decision maker. Only relocating releases was a dominated alternative, indicating that it was not optimal regardless of the relative importance of objectives. A rational decision maker could choose any other management alternative we considered. Recognizing that decisions involve trade-offs that must be weighed by decision makers is crucial to identifying alternatives that best balance multiple management objectives. Given uncertainty about the population dynamics of blood-feeding arthropods, an adaptive management approach could offer substantial benefits.     

中国特有植物猪血木的濒危原因及保护对策

猪血木(Euryodendron excelsum H.T.Chang)为中国特有的山茶科单型属猪血木属的珍稀濒危植物,现仅分布于广东省阳春县八甲镇地区,且仅残存一个居群,居群内个体数量仅100余株,该物种已被列为国家二级保护植物。物种濒危原因分析是生物多样性保护的关键环节,文章从猪血木的地理分布、生活史特性、种群分布现状及生态环境因素影响等方面分析了该物种的濒危现状,猪血木种群地理分布的局限性限制了其空间拓展;种子萌发和幼苗生长对生境要求特殊和种群现状不利于其更新和发展,人为干扰对猪血木影响严重。其濒危的主要原因是人为因素引起的生境破碎化和过度砍伐所导致的个体数量下降,文章认为现存种群和生境的保护是濒危物种保护的最有效手段,针对猪血木的濒危现状和原因,提出了就地保护,促进自然种群的繁衍更新,建立猪血木繁育基地进行迁地保护和回归引种的保护策略,以期为猪血木的保护和种群恢复提供科学的理论指导,也为中国珍稀濒危物种和生物多样性的保护提供基础资料。     

Partitioning of \alpha and \beta diversity using hierarchical Bayesian modeling of species distribution and abundance

Diversity partitioning is becoming widely used to decompose the total number of species recorded in an area or region \((\gamma )\) into the average number of species within samples \((\alpha )\) and the average difference in species composition \((\beta )\) among samples. Single-value metrics of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) diversity are popular because they may be applied at multiple scales and because of their ease in computation and interpretation. Studies thus far, however, have emphasized observed diversity components or comparisons to randomized, null distributions. In addition, prediction of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components using environmental or spatial variables has been limited to more extensive data sets because multiple samples are required to estimate single \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components. Lastly, observed diversity components do not incorporate variation in detection probabilities among species or samples. In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian models of species abundances to provide predictions of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components in species richness and composition using environmental and spatial variables. We illustrate our approach using butterfly data collected from 26 grassland remnants to predict spatially nested patterns of \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) based on the predicted counts of butterflies. Diversity partitioning using a Bayesian hierarchical model incorporated variation in detection probabilities by butterfly species and habitat patches, and provided prediction intervals for \(\alpha \) and \(\beta \) components using environmental and spatial variables.     

广西特有植物瑶山苣苔的濒危原因及保护对策

瑶山苣苔(Dayaoshania cotinifolia W.T.Wang)是苦苣苔科多年生草本植物,为国家Ⅰ级重点保护野生植物.在2004-2006年对瑶山苣苔资源现状、生物学和生态学特性调查的基础上,探讨了瑶山苣苔的濒危原因及解濒措施.结果表明,人为原因是导致瑶山苣苔濒危的最主要原因;其次是昆虫对瑶山苣果实的捕食显著减少了种子数量;第三,瑶山苣苔同有的生物学特性限制其种群数量增加.为更好的保护瑶山苣苔,作者建议采用就地保护策略,即建立金秀老山自然保护区独木桥和青年工区两个瑶山苣苔保护点,有效地保护该种群及其分布生境;同时加强瑶山苣苔的科学研究,实施迁地保护.     

Reconstructing the historic demography of an endangered seabird

Reducing extinction risk for threatened species requires determining which demographic parameters are depressed and causing population declines. Museum collections may constitute a unique, underutilized resource for measuring demographic changes over long time periods using age-ratio analysis. We reconstruct the historic demography of a U.S. federally endangered seabird, the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), from specimens collected approximately 100 years ago for comparison with predictions from comparative analyses and with results from contemporary field studies using both age-ratio analysis and conventional demographic estimators. Reproduction in the late 1800s and early 1900s matched predictions from comparative analysis, but was 8-9 times greater than contemporary estimates, whereas adult survival was unchanged. Historic reproductive rates would support stable populations, but contemporary levels should result in population declines. Contemporary demographic estimates derived from age-ratio analysis were similar to estimates from conventional estimators. Using museum specimens to reconstruct historic demography provides a unique approach to identify causes of decline and to set demographic benchmarks for recovery of endangered species that meet most assumptions of age-ratio analysis.