Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Following the Boskin et al., (1996) report, it became widely recognized that price indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere overstate inflation. Svedberg and Tilton (2006) highlighted that this inflation bias may have important implications for estimated long-term trends in nonrenewable resource prices. ST construct an inflation-bias corrected CPI (and PPI) for the U.S. and use their corrected deflator(s) to define a so-called ‘real real’ price of copper. Their ‘real real’ price of copper is then used to re-estimate long-term trends in real copper prices. This paper proposes a quick method for obtaining inflation-bias-corrected estimates of long-run trends in real primary commodity prices directly from estimates in the published literature. Our approach obviates the need re-do existing empirical studies using a corrected or ‘real real’ price of nonrenewable resources. The two approaches are mathematically equivalent.     

Potentially recoverable resources: How recoverable?

There are a number of factors which are likely to limit the proportion of potentially recoverable resources that will actually be recovered. The most important of these concern the way minerals are distributed within the crust and trends in energy costs associated with mineral production. This article offers a pessimistic view of the prospects for mineral supplies early in the 21st century. The resource situation is even less hopeful when the possibility of extending the material living standards of the developed countries to everyone likely to be living on earth late next century is considered.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

Analyzing interdependent impacts of resource sustainability

Quantifying the impact of the shortage of a scarce resource requires a systemic account of the interdependent nature of several industry and infrastructure sectors that rely either directly or indirectly on that resource. An ability to quickly and easily quantify such an impact provides policymakers with a useful measure of the efficacy of discovering, designing, or developing a sustainable alternative. Discussed in this paper is a methodological approach for measuring the broader interdependent impacts of a resource shortage. The dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM) is used to illustrate both the economic effects of resource shortages over a period of time and the time-dependent recovery of industry sectors. Extensions to the DIIM are introduced to produce an accessible tool for policymakers and industry decision makers. Case studies using publicly available data illustrate the usefulness of the model for describing local oil production shortages and global rare earth metals supply shortages, highlighting the industries that will need to adapt to changes in resource availability, as well as those industries that will remain relatively unaffected. Above all, the model presented in this paper is an effective means of communicating the impact and importance of resource shortages to assist in the design and development of a sustainable future.     

A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries

The paper examines the copper consumption-economic growth nexus for 16 rich economies from the period 1966 to 2010. Various generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be integrated of order one. Evidence of cointegration is found especially when controlling for breaks and long-run cross-sectional dependence. Causality is investigated using a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) framework. At individual level, unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is unraveled for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. Unidirectional causality is also found running from copper consumption to economic growth for Spain. Long-run bi-directionality between economic growth and copper consumption is found for Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea. The neutrality hypothesis holds for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA in the long-run. Taken as a whole, panel causality test reveals a long-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption.     

Extensions of stochastic multiscenario models for long-range planning under uncertainty

In the twenty-first century, the goals of mankind are evolving from rising prosperity to attaining long-range sustainable survival in an acceptable state. Such change will lead to a paradigm shift predicted by Thomas Kuhn. This situation motivates two novel generalized systems, Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO) and its derivative, Risk-Constrained Optimization/Decision Network (RCO/DN). RCO aims for flexible and robust strategies across large ranges of scenarios and risks. It assumes that for any “serious” (complex and long-range) planning and decision-making problem, externalities are important and uncertainty is radical. Therefore, it rejects the very concept of the correct or the best strategy, replacing it with a strategy that is the most acceptable to decision-maker(s). RCO considers decision-support systems, models, and algorithms to be tools of analysis, rather than methods of selection of the best. It replaces the artificial and risky paradigm of maximization by a cautious natural and evolutionary paradigm of catastrophe avoidance. RCO filters out the worst and riskiest candidate strategies, leaving for judgmental selection a small set of flexible, robust, and reasonably safe strategies. For that purpose, RCO employs enhanced stochastic multiscenario (ESMS) models, transforming them into optimizing filters. It is important that this operation is achieved in accordance with a new principle—changing the overall solution by affecting the values of scenario-specific, rather than general, outcome variables. Furthermore, RCO screens decisions and strategies by several synthetic criteria in a framework of novel strategic frontiers. Thus, RCO embeds ESMS into an ensemble of mutually supporting risk management techniques, legitimizing high-level analytical use of a computer plus optimization model combination.     

Does adding more lettuce make a hamburger truly green? A metaphor behind the green movement paradigm in designing cities

In designing cities, the label of the green movement these days is being applied to almost everything—starting from works of environmental non-governmental organizations and international as well as local conservation organizations to grass-roots resistance activism including radical environmentalism. This paper seeks to understand the motivation—the paradigm—behind the green movement initiatives and how the paradigm appears to shift from the ground reality. Conclusions suggest that, on one hand, environmental problems are far from being a matter of common sense and, on the other, the matter of intellectual and technological developments—the outcomes of rigorous academic research reflected in endless literature predominantly comprising the fields of environmental sociology, environmental anthropology, and conservation psychology—are in reality often found to be dealt with by shallow planning and policy practices without even realizing the big-picture that the paradigm is merely being used as an advertizing tool for making business profit. It is expected that, unless a shift from such negative practices towards a conscious and genuine commitment to proactive environmental stewardship is made, the situation will continue to be exacerbated.     

Copper recycling and scrap availability

According to existing estimates, available old copper scrap has more than tripled over the past 40 years. Secondary production (that is, copper produced from recycling old scrap), however, has only doubled. Indeed, over the past 10 years, while copper consumption and primary production have continued to expand briskly, while available old scrap has increased by over 35%, secondary production has actually stagnated.For a world concerned with sustainable development and the quality of the earth's environment, this performance is disappointing and in need of explanation. Other things being equal, one would expect the amount of recycling to increase with the availability of scrap, as many econometric models of the world copper market developed over the past several decades explicitly assume.The key to understanding sluggish growth in secondary production, this paper argues, is distinguishing carefully between (1) the flow of old scrap that arrives each year from products reaching the end of their useful lives during the year and (2) the available stock of old scrap that was not recycled during earlier years presumably because it was too costly to do so. Using an econometric model, the paper shows that old scrap stocks, which have contributed most of the increase in available old copper scrap over the years, have a very modest impact on secondary production. Old scrap flows have a much greater effect, but they account for only about 4% of the available old scrap for any given year.     

三峡库区氮肥污染趋势与对策

本文利用三峡库区历年氮肥用量的系统资料,探讨了库区氮肥污染现状。并预测了三峡库区建坝与不建坝的氮肥污染趋势。结果表明:如果不建坝,到本世纪末,氮肥污染比目前加重1.3倍左右;若建坝,到本世纪末,氮肥污染比目前加重1.67倍。根据氮肥污染趋势预测,提出了库区氮肥污染对策。     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

Phytoremediation of Copper‐Contaminated Soil Using Helianthus annuus,Brassica nigra,and Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.: A Pot Scale Study

Phytoremediation is an eco‐friendly and cost‐effective technology that uses plants to extract contaminants from the environment or to decrease contaminant toxicity. This article documents a study not only of the effectiveness of copper uptake by Heliantus annuus (common sunflower), Brassica nigra (black mustard), and Lycoperscion esculentum Mill. (a tomato species), but of where, within these plant species, the copper is accumulated—in the roots or in the shoots. This is vital information, for if these particular plants accumulate copper primarily in their roots, then their edible portions will likely be safe to eat, while if they accumulate the copper in their shoots, their harvestable portions would be harmful to living beings.     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

Long-term adequacy of metal resources

Although the earth's crust contains vast quantities of metals, extraction technologies and associated costs are inextricably bound to three fundamental geological factors — the amount of metal available in the earth's crust in each range of grades, the mineralogical form and chemical state of the metal, and the spatial distribution of the metal. The energy required to recover a given amount of metal increases substantially as grade declines. Most metal is produced from sulphide or oxide minerals, whereas most metal in the crust may be locked in the structures of the more refractory silicates. Recovery from silicate minerals could require orders of magnitude more energy than that used at present as also could exploitation of small, widely scattered or thin, deeply buried deposits. Although specific information on the fundamental factors is not available, each factor must in turn tend to further restrict exploitation. Independence of average grade and tonnage for many deposit types further reduces the availability of rock as a source of metal. In the long term, effects of these factors will be large increases in price for many metals.     

Copper resource appraisal

Data are presented indicating the availability of copper from domestic sources in the US—what quantity can be produced and when and at what price. Included are supply and demand data, production methods and costs, geographic location of deposits in the US, by-product relationships and some problems affecting the industry.     

Stabilising secondary materials markets

This paper argues that ‘secondary materials’ — waste products — are now an integral part of the global commodities problem. It analyses the background to attempts being made in several advanced economies to intervene in secondary materials markets. The forms of intervention are exact analogues of those that have been tried, or are being considered, and centre on buffer-stock schemes which aim to stabilise prices. In turn, stabilised markets have been thought to be a prerequisite for increasing the long-run supply of secondary materials. The paper casts doubt on the usefulness of such schemes for a selected product — waste paper — and presents a simulation exercise for the existence of a buffer-stock scheme.     

The business implications of implementing ISO 14000

The ISO 14000 standards for environmental management systems (EMS) are voluntary standards intended to aid companies that wish to improve their environmental performance. The standards owe their existence, at least in part, to three widely shared views: (1) that existing environmental management systems are either inadequate or ineffective; (2) that companies will want to improve environmental performance for economic or social reasons; and (3) that governments and stakeholders will require companies to exercise greater control of the impacts to the environment through new regulations. ISO 14000 offers a solution—an ?integrated”? EMS, with components designed to effect sound management in any size organization and in any country. The standards are an embodiment of both the policy and practice of environmental management. This article is a consideration of the business implications of the ISO 14000 series of standards. How will a movement toward an integrated EMS be realized? Who will be in the best position to respond? ISO 14000 is a management system, and it carries with it business consequences.     

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

Soviet non-fuel mineral resources : Surplus or scarcity?

The USSR has long been regarded as a resource-rich country with no need for external sources of non-fuel mineral resources. Increasingly, however, it is beginning to appear that such an assessment of the Soviet non-fuel mineral resource picture is overly optimistic. The Soviet mineral industry is beset by a variety of problems which complicate the extraction and utilization of needed minerals. The USSR remains a resource-rich country, but the difficulties it encounters exploiting its resources are multiplying. This article examines the Soviet aluminium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, platinum, titanium and zinc industries, and offers views of the Soviet resource future in each area.     

“Applicability of the t-Test for Detecting Trends in Water Quality Variables,” by Robert H. Montgomery and Jim C. Loftis2

Montgomery and Loftis (1987) have listed several situations for which the t-test does not accurately reproduce Type I errors, and should therefore be avoided. Characteristics common to water quality data (skewness or other non-normality, presence of outliers and less-thans) also reduce the power of the t-test, in relation to nonparametric alternatives. Thus if one is interested in reaching correct decisions when trends or differences exist, and not just when they do not, the t-test should not be considered “robust” (in the sense of being generally applicable) when its assumptions are violated. Further, t-tests assume that differences in means are relevant (the mean is a good measure of central tendency), and that data groups differ by some additive amount. When all of these assumptions are recognized, and in light of the availability of truly robust and comparatively powerful non-parametric alternatives, we believe there is little applicability of the t-test for detecting trends or differences in water quality variables.