Sex-biased lactational duration in a human population and its reproductive costs

Summary We tested the proposition that among humans (1) differences in lactational duration result in differences in costs of reproduction even under rich nutritional conditions; and (2) elimination of factors postulated to favor male-biased parental care will be reflected in elimination or reversal of sex-biased care. To do so, we examined the relationship between lactational duration and fertility among Hutterites, a communal-living human population in which the levels of nutritional resources and fertility are high, breast-feeding is the norm, contraceptive use is limited and the collective social and economic system results in low resource variance among individuals. We demonstrate that even under good nutritional conditions, duration of nursing was a significant predictor of the length of time to next pregnancy and that nursing continued to suppress fertility after the resumption of menses. Moreover, we find that daughters were nursed longer than sons, leading to a longer interval to next pregnancy. We examine this uncommon, but not unique, finding of female-biased human parental care in the light of Hutterite social structure, and we explore the consistency of this finding with the most applicable models of parental investment. Correspondence to: S.W. Margulis     

Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.     

Individually variable energy management strategies in relation to energetic costs of egg production

Marked interindividual variation in metabolic rate suggests considerable complexity in energy management strategies, but attempts to further our understanding of the relationship between resting metabolic rate (RMR), daily energy expenditure (DEE), and reproductive effort have been hampered by the complexity of studying this system in the field. Here, we describe energy management strategies in a captive-breeding system, using Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata), to demonstrate the high level of complexity and interindividual variability in energy expenditure, food intake, locomotor activity, and reproductive effort. In particular, we investigated whether the increase in RMR associated with egg production is additive, resulting in higher DEE and a need for elevated food intake, or whether this cost is compensated by reduced expenditure in nonreproductive components of the energy budget. We found high levels of intra-individual variation in energy expenditure associated with egg production in female Zebra Finches, e.g., comparing nonbreeding stage with the one-egg stage, change in RMR varied from 4.0% and 41.3%, and change in DEE varied from -33.3% to +46.4%. This variation was systematically related to aspects of locomotor activity and reproductive effort. Females with the largest increase in RMR during egg production decreased locomotor activity the most but still had increased DEE at the one-egg stage, and females with high DEE at the one-egg stage produced larger clutches. Our study suggests that females minimize increases in DEE during egg production through behavioral energy reallocation (reduced locomotor activity) but that individuals differ in their use of this strategy, which, in turn, is related to the absolute level of reproductive investment. This suggests a very complex, individually variable system of energy management to meet the demands of egg production.     

On the integration of science and management in coastal management research

This contribution presents an introduction to a series of papers on integrated scientific approaches presented at the San Feliu Euroconference on transdisciplinary coastal management research. Coastal management is a challenging area for the integration of social and natural sciences. The papers provide a basis for ongoing cross-disciplinary research.     

Standardized reporting of the costs of management interventions for biodiversity conservation

Effective conservation management interventions must combat threats and deliver benefits at costs that can be achieved within limited budgets. Considerable effort has focused on measuring the potential benefits of conservation interventions, but explicit quantification of the financial costs of implementation is rare. Even when costs have been quantified, haphazard and inconsistent reporting means published values are difficult to interpret. This reporting deficiency hinders progress toward a collective understanding of the financial costs of management interventions across projects and thus limits the ability to identify efficient solutions to conservation problems or attract adequate funding. We devised a standardized approach to describing financial costs reported for conservation interventions. The standards call for researchers and practitioners to describe the objective and outcome, context and methods, and scale of costed interventions, and to state which categories of costs are included and the currency and date for reported costs. These standards aim to provide enough contextual information that readers and future users can interpret the cost data appropriately. We suggest these standards be adopted by major conservation organizations, conservation science institutions, and journals so that cost reporting is comparable among studies. This would support shared learning and enhance the ability to identify and perform cost‐effective conservation.     

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.     

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.     

Time and recruitment costs as currencies in manipulation studies on the costs of reproduction

Life history theory predicts that parents will have lower Darwinian fitness if they tend clutches that are above or below the size they naturally produce. We experimentally tested for relationships between fitness and clutch size in Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) offspring and parents. Over 130 trios of nests initiated on the same day were randomly divided among reduce (-3 eggs), control (3 eggs picked up and replaced), or add (+3 eggs) manipulations. Pre-manipulation modal clutch size was six eggs (range before manipulations was 1-10; afterwards, it was 1-11). Hatching took longer in larger clutches, but the proportion of eggs hatching and fledging was similar for clutches from 4 to 10, so that clutches of 10 produced the maximum number of fledgling. Parental feeding rates were higher for larger broods, but per capita feeds to nestlings were fewer, and nestlings were smaller. Nonetheless, survival of both young and adults, based on recaptures in subsequent years, was not significantly affected by manipulations. Manipulations also had no significant effect on subsequent reproduction, including the number of fledglings produced by either local recruits or returning breeders. Collectively, our results failed to detect fitness costs associated with tending larger clutches for either parents or the offspring reared and suggested directional selection for larger clutch size. However, because clutches that hatch later produce fewer recruits, the extra days required to lay more eggs and to fledge extra young may eliminate a large part of the advantage that would accrue to parents producing enlarged clutches. For example, our data suggest that there may be less than a 16% benefit to producing nine instead of six eggs, rather than 50%, as is suggested by experimentally manipulated egg numbers alone. Thus, time, rather than costs of reproduction, may be the crucial constraint selecting against Tree Swallows laying larger clutches.     

On the conflicts of wildlife management in Africa

SUMMARY

The paper analyses the conflict between wildlife conservation and the costs and benefits obtained from it in an East African context. A well defined agency is managing a national park of fixed area. Wildlife is also assumed to be ‘owned’ by the park authority. The park owner has therefore economic incentives to conserve the wildlife. The management policy, however, does not take into account the damage caused to the production of the agropastoralists living in the proximity of the park by the wildlife roaming freely in and out of the park. The conflict is first analysed in a one-species framework. Next, the model is extented to a two-species framework where the species compete for grazing lands.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Adjustment costs and optimal waste treatment

Consideration is given to various reasons for changing standards on emissions, effluents, and ambient air and water quality. It is proposed that adjustment costs may be of significant practical importance in determining the optimal time path of waste treatment (at least currently). The problem of minimizing the present value of the sum of treatment plus damage plus adjustment costs is placed in a calculus of variations framework and the optimal time path of waste treatment is characterized as well as the corresponding optimal tax. An example is used to illustrate some features of the solution.     

Learning abatement costs: On the dynamics of the optimal regulation of experience goods

We study the introduction of new technologies when their costs are subject to idiosyncratic uncertainty and can only be fully learned through individual experience. We set up a dynamic model of clean experience goods that replace old polluting consumption options and show how optimal regulation evolves over time. In our base setting where social and private learning incentives coincide, the optimal tax on the polluting consumption is increasing over time. We show, however, that if social and private learning incentives diverge because the private discount rate exceeds the social discount rate, it may be optimal to temporarily increase the tax rate beyond net marginal external damages to induce more learning before reducing the tax rate to the steady state level. Alternatively, one could complement the tax with subsidies for first-time users which can be phased out over time. Similar results apply if consumers have biased expectations. We therefore give a rationale for introductory subsidies on new, clean technologies and non-monotonic tax paths from a perspective of consumer learning.     

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans-border carnivore population

Noninvasive genetic sampling has been embraced by wildlife managers and ecologists, especially those charged with monitoring rare and elusive species over large areas. Challenges arise when desired population measures are not directly attainable from genetic data and when monitoring targets trans-border populations. Norwegian management authorities count individual brown bears (Ursus arctos) using noninvasive genetic sampling but express management goals in the annual number of bear reproductions (females that produce cubs), a measure that is not directly available from genetic data. We combine noninvasive genetic sampling data with information obtained from a long-term intensive monitoring study in neighboring Sweden to estimate the number of annual reproductions by females detected within Norway. Most female brown bears in Norway occur near the border with neighboring countries (Sweden, Finland, and Russia) and their potential reproduction can therefore only partially be credited to Norway. Our model includes a simulation-based method that corrects census data to account for this. We estimated that 4.3 and 5.7 reproductions can be credited to females detected with noninvasive genetic sampling in Norway in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These numbers fall substantially short of the national target (15 annual reproductions). Ignoring the potential for home ranges to extend beyond Norway's borders leads to an increase in the estimate of the number of reproductions by -30%. Our study shows that combining noninvasive genetic sampling with information obtained from traditional intensive/invasive monitoring can help answer contemporary management questions in the currency desired by managers and policy makers. Furthermore, combining methodologies and thereby accounting for space use increases the accuracy of the information on which decisions are based. It is important that the information derived from multiple approaches is applicable to the same focal population and that predictions are cross-validated. When monitoring and management are constrained to administrative units, census data should be adjusted by discounting portions of individual space utilization that extend beyond the focal jurisdiction. Our simulation-based approach for making such an adjustment may be useful in other situations where management authorities target portions of trans-border populations.     

Uncertainty and allocation decisions involving unique environmental resources

The implications of the treatment of uncertainty in the definition of optimal investment criteria for irreversible allocations of unique environmental resources are considered herein. This analysis argues that the single-project, orientation of conventional cost-benefit analysis can lead to inconsistent decisions because it fails to take account of the potential for risk pooling across projects. In the models discussed in this paper uncertainty arises because the planner must estimate the net benefits associated with a mix of developed and preserved natural environments. The results suggest that the criteria for optimal investment plans will be affected by those factors influencing this uncertainty. Both the scale and timing of optimal investments may be altered from those prescribed with the conventional (Fisher-Krutilla-Cicchetti rule) framework when the potential for risk pooling is introduced. Thus, it is important to consider as a part of the specification of the objective function the factors which give rise to uncertainty.     

Variation in male courtship costs in butterflies

A cost of mating is common to both sexes but has predominantly been examined in females. In species where males provide resources to females at copulation, male mating costs are expected to be high as nutrient provisioning enhancing female fecundity is assumed to carry costs. In addition, males frequently court females prior to mating, which is known to carry survival costs to both sexes. However, the magnitude and basis of variation in males’ mating costs remains largely unknown. Here, I examine the effect of nutrient provisioning and courtship on male longevity across full-sib families in the paternally investing green-veined white butterfly, Pieris napi. Copulating males suffered a survival cost as did courting males prevented from copulating, indicating the courtship component of mating is costly. Male P. napi release aphrodisiacs during courtship to promote mating, indicating that these compounds may also be costly to produce. Contrary to expectation, nutrient provisioning was not associated with reduced survival relative to males only allowed to court females, although it is possible that this could be masked by the potentially elevated courtship rates of courting males relative to mating males. Families differed in magnitude of reduced male survivorship, indicating a likely genetic basis to variation in costs of courtship and copulation. Male weight was unrelated to longevity and mating success, whereas longevity strongly influenced male mating success, indicating lifespan is an important male fitness trait in this species.     

Male-biased maternal expenditure and associated costs in fallow deer

This study tested whether fallow deer mothers, Dama dama, bias their investment towards sons and, thus, whether sons are more costly to produce than daughters. Young (2 years) and old (≥3 years) hinds were analysed separately. Old hinds who raised sons accumulated less body mass than those who raised daughters, during the period between late gestation and the end of lactation. This difference in body mass persisted to the following spring. Mothers who had raised sons gave birth later and their offspring's pre-winter mass was lower the following year than for mothers who had raised daughters. These results indicate higher expenditure for hinds who raise sons and support theories of male-biased maternal investment. However, young mothers with sons and those with daughters did not differ in reproductive performance the following year. One reason might be that young mothers are close to the maximum level of maternal expenditure, since they are still growing, and cannot invest any extra resources in sons. Received: 28 August 1997 / Accepted after revision: 5 April 1998     

Relating environmental modeling to policy issues and decisions

This paper describes a linear program-based computer model which has been developed to identify the most effective spending patterns for environmental cleanup based on public preferences and spending limitations. The inputs to the model include the costs of removing each residual studied from its various sources. The objective function is the total “value of removal”. The factor added for each residual consists of a value for the residual multiplied by the quantity or fraction removed.Results of the analysis relate to and support current and projected policy decisions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for air and water programs. In addition, the results of the analysis suggest that EPA undertake a redirection of the Nation's resources among residual control programs.     

On parametric estimation of population abundance for line transect sampling

Despite recent advances in nonparametric methods for estimating animal abundance, parametric methods are still used widely among biometricians due to their simplicity. In this paper, we propose an optimal shrinkage-type estimator and an empirical Bayes estimator for estimating animal density from line transect sampling data. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator and a bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator both theoretically and numerically. Simulation results show that the optimal shrinkage-type estimator works the best if the detection function has a very thin tail (for example, the half normal detection function), while the maximum likelihood estimator is the best estimator if the detection function has relatively thick tail (for example, the polynomial detection function).