Using Wildlife as Receptor Species: A Landscape Approach to Ecological Risk Assessment

To assist risk assessors at the Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site (SRS), a Geographic Information System (GIS) application was developed to provide relevant information about specific receptor species of resident wildlife that can be used for ecological risk assessment. Information was obtained from an extensive literature review of publications and reports on vertebrate- and contaminant-related research since 1954 and linked to a GIS. Although this GIS is a useful tool for risk assessors because the data quality is high, it does not describe the species’ site-wide spatial distribution or life history, which may be crucial when developing a risk assessment. Specific receptor species on the SRS were modeled to provide an estimate of an overall distribution (probability of being in an area). Each model is a stand-alone tool consisting of algorithms independent of the GIS data layers to which it is applied and therefore is dynamic and will respond to changes such as habitat disturbances and natural succession. This paper describes this modeling process and demonstrates how these resource selection models can then be used to produce spatially explicit exposure estimates. This approach is a template for other large federal facilities to establish a framework for site-specific risk assessments that use wildlife species as endpoints.Current address: Biology Department, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069     

Tijuana Childhood Lead Risk Assessment Revisited: Validating a GIS Model with Environmental Data

The objective of this research was to determine the spatial distributions of childhood lead poisoning and soil lead contamination in urban Tijuana. The Bocco–Sanchez model of point-source emissions was evaluated in terms of validity and reliability. We compared the model's predicted vulnerable populations with observed cases of childhood lead poisoning in Tijuana, identified fixed point sources in the field, and analyzed 76 soil samples from 14 sites. The soil lead results were compared to the blood lead analyses performed on Tijuana children whose blood lead levels were ≥10 μg/dL, who reported that they did not use lead-glazed ceramics for cooking or storing food (n = 63). Using GIS, predicted vs observed risk areas were assessed by examining spatial patterns, including the distribution of cases per designated risk area. Chi-square analysis of expected vs observed values did not differ significantly at the p = 0.02 level, showing that the model was strikingly accurate in predicting the distribution of subjects with elevated blood lead. Results reveal that while point sources are significant, other sources of lead exposure are also important. The relative public health risk from exposure to lead in an urban setting may be assessed by distinguishing among sources of exposure and associating concentrations to blood lead levels. The results represent an iterative approach in environmental health research by linking environmental and human biomarker lead concentrations and using these results to validate an environmental model of risk to lead exposure.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

Effects of veterinary fences on Wildlife conservation in Zimbabwe

In Zimbabwe, veterinary fences are used to control trypanosomiasis and foot- and-mouth disease, two important diseases that threaten cattle production and beef exports. Wildlife is implicated in both instances and the effects of fences on wildlife conservation and land use are discussed in relation to these two diseases. Advantages and disadvantages related to direct and indirect fence effects are outlined. Although the maintenance of fences for trypanosomiasis control is likely to become obsolete, control of foot- and-mouth disease will rely on fences for the foreseeable future. Most of Zimbabwe's protected wildlife areas are located in marginal agricultural land around the periphery of the country where cattle productivity is low. This land should be excluded from any involvement in the beef export industry rather than attempting its inclusion through cordoning and isolating individual protected areas. Within such land, the need for rigid veterinary restrictions should then disappear and allow more flexible strategies for disease control, including adaptive and imaginative approaches to land-use planning.     

Risk and opportunity in upgrading the US drinking water infrastructure system

This paper presents a practical risk assessment methodology to provide drinking water infrastructure (DWI) decision-makers with an objective risk assessment tool. The purpose of this risk assessment tool is to maintain the desired level-of-service or systems reliability [r(f)], while managing the financial uncertainty of the expected budgetary impact within the capital improvement program (CIP). The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the value of an objective risk assessment tool for estimating the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to the risk of systems failure (R). The objectives are to: (1) incorporate probability of systems failure [p(f)] into the CIP budgetary analysis process and (2) evaluate the affects of p(f) on the expected CIP budgetary outcome. The magnitude of the expected budgetary impact is managed through the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to R, which is represented by the level of the rate of reinvestment (RR). The expected result of the proposed risk assessment tool demonstrates that by proactively managing R to maintain a desired r(f) will effectively manage the impact of uncertainty on the expected budgetary outcome within the CIP. The expected contribution of the practical risk assessment methodology is to provide DWI decision-makers with the ability to reduce budgetary uncertainty when allocating limited financial resources among competing operational, repair, maintenance, and expansion activities within the CIP. The conclusions of the paper reveal that if DWI decision-makers assume risk-avoidance positions through proactive asset management (AM) strategies, they will achieve positive affects on expected budgetary outcomes.     

Conflict on the Coast: Using Geographic Information Systems to Map Potential Environmental Disputes in Matagorda Bay,Texas

The sustainable management of coastal natural resources inevitably involves identifying stakeholder conflicts and developing planning processes that prevent these conflicts from becoming intractable disputes. This study links environmental conflict to specific areas within a large ecological system. Specifically, we use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map potentially competing stakeholder values associated with establishing protected areas in Matagorda Bay, Texas. By overlaying multiple values associated with a range of stakeholders across space, we are able to identify hotspots of potential conflict as well as areas of opportunity for maximizing joint gains. Mapping stakeholder conflict is an approach to proactively locate potential controversy in response to a specific environmental management proposal and guide decision makers in crafting planning processes that mitigate the possibility of intractable disputes and facilitate the implementation of sustainable coastal policies. Results indicate that under different management scenarios, protected area proposals will generate more conflict in specific areas. Most notably, regulated uses would produce the greatest degree of conflict on or near shore, particularly at the mouth of the Colorado River. Additionally, of all the management scenarios evaluated, the prohibition of coastal structural development would generate the overall highest level of conflict within the Bay. Based on the results, we discuss the policy implications for environmental managers and provide guidance for future research on location-based conflict management within the coastal margin.     

Applying Ecological Risk Principles to Watershed Assessment and Management

Considerable progress in addressing point source (end of pipe) pollution problems has been made, but it is now recognized that further substantial environmental improvements depend on controlling nonpoint source pollution. A watershed approach is being used more frequently to address these problems because traditional regulatory approaches do not focus on nonpoint sources. The watershed approach is organized around the guiding principles of partnerships, geographic focus, and management based on sound science and data. This helps to focus efforts on the highest priority problems within hydrologically-defined geographic areas. Ecological risk assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze, and present scientific information to improve decision making. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored three watershed assessments and found that integrating the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in decision making. This paper describes the basics of the watershed approach, the ecological risk assessment process, and how these two frameworks can be integrated. The three major principles of watershed ecological risk assessment found to be most useful for increasing the use of science in decision making are (1) using assessment endpoints and conceptual models, (2) holding regular interactions between scientists and managers, and (3) developing a focus for multiple stressor analysis. Examples are provided illustrating how these principles were implemented in these assessments.     

Modeling Protected Species Habitat and Assigning Risk to Inform Regulatory Decisions

In the United States, environmental regulatory agencies are required to use “best available” scientific information when making decisions on a variety of issues. However, agencies are often hindered by coarse or incomplete data, particularly as it pertains to threatened and endangered species protection. Stakeholders often agree that more resolute and integrated processes for decision-making are desirable. We demonstrate a process that uses species occurrence data for a federally endangered insect (Karner blue butterfly), a readily available habitat modeling tool, and spatially explicit information about an important Michigan commodity (tart cherries). This case study has characteristics of many protected species regulatory decisions in that species occurrence data were sparse and unequally distributed; regulatory decisions (on pesticide use) were required with potentially significant impacts on a viable agricultural industry; and stakeholder relations were diverse, misinformed, and, in some situations, unjustly contentious. Results from our process include a large-scale, empirically derived habitat suitability map for the focal species and a risk ranking of tart cherry orchards with risk based on the likelihood that pesticide applications will influence the focal protected species. Although the majority (77%) of pesticide-influence zones overlapped Karner blue butterfly habitat, risk scores associated with each orchard were low. Through our process we demonstrated that spatially explicit models can help stakeholders visualize and quantify potential protected species effects. In addition, model outputs can serve to guide field activities (e.g., species surveys and implementation of pesticide buffer zones) that help minimize future effects.     

Managing Urban Trees and Their Soil Envelopes in a Contiguously Developed City Environment

Urban Hong Kong is covered by high building, road, and population densities. Its urban morphology is inherently not conducive to extensive or high-grade greening. Recent renewal of old areas has squeezed out some limited interstitial plantable space, although in new development areas modest spaces have been earmarked for greenery. The study aims at evaluating the major constraints to urban trees and their companion urban soil envelopes and at providing specific recommendations to improve tree management in the city. The analysis covers the above-ground confinements that dampen tree performance, the less tangible but rather difficult institutional restrictions that impose a somewhat unnecessary lid on tree planting, the multiplicity of players and stakeholders involved in urban-tree management that militates against coordination and cooperation, the widespread occupation of underground space by utility lines often to the exclusion of trees, and the extremely poor quality of urban soils that are often used without amelioration to support tree growth. The management recommendations furnish practical suggestions and hints to improve the short- and long-term welfare of trees in terms of quality, quantity, and spatial distribution. The conclusion enumerates some concrete measures for consideration by decision-makers to upgrade the city's greenery to close the gap between science and policy.     

Geospatial Method to Map Potential Risk of Stormwater Thermal Pollution

Thermal pollution is a growing concern as communities strive to protect and improve the nation's waters. The purpose of this study was to develop and analyze a geospatial model that predicts the relative risk of contribution of thermal energy to surface runoff throughout an urban watershed. A geospatial‐based solution could serve as a screening method or planning element, prior to or instead of the development of a more complex simulation of mass‐load transport of thermal energy. The study's theoretical methodology integrated the thermal potential of land cover and thermal decay due to overland travel to inlets. The resulting thermal pollution potential (TPP) index value was then assigned to individual model grid cells for comparison. Analysis of results from application to a case study watershed in Blacksburg, Virginia, indicated the computational methodology is not very sensitive to changes in spatial resolution. The thermal decay constant used in the analysis was varied, and results indicated a low sensitivity to selection of this parameter. A comparison between methods of watershed delineation also indicated use of infrastructure‐corrected watershed delineation yields better results than derivation from automated techniques. The geospatial method presented may be used to reproduce a TPP risk map to prioritize thermal pollution mitigation efforts.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

Soil Characteristics and Management in an Urban Park in Hong Kong

3   threshold. With diminished porosity, transmission of air and water, storage of plant-available moisture, and root growth suffer. Chemically, the samples have an unnatural alkaline pH; inadequate organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, exchangeable cations; and limited cation exchange capacity. The results can help park-soil management, including the need to evaluate soil in planned park sites, salvage high-grade soil parcels, prevent construction damage, ameliorate structure by mechanical operations and suitable amendments, and replace site soil of very poor quality. Edaphic problems can be forestalled or solved by treating soil as an integral component of park planning and management based on scientific principles and methods.     

Environmental Justice,Local Knowledge,and Risk: The Discourse of a Community-Based Cumulative Exposure Assessment

While risk assessment continues to drive most environmental management decision-making, its methods and assumptions have been criticized for, among other things, perpetuating environmental injustice. The justice challenges to risk assessment claim that the process ignores the unique and multiple hazards facing low-income and people of color communities and simultaneously excludes the local, non-expert knowledge which could help capture these unique hazards from the assessment discourse. This paper highlights some of these challenges to conventional risk assessment and suggests that traditional models of risk characterization will continue to ignore the environmental justice challenges until cumulative hazards and local knowledge are meaningfully brought into the assessment process. We ask whether a shift from risk to exposure assessment might enable environmental managers to respond to the environmental justice critiques. We review the US EPA's first community-based Cumulative Exposure Project, piloted in Brooklyn, NY, and highlight to what extent this process addressed the risk assessment critiques raised by environmental justice advocates. We suggest that a shift from risk to exposure assessment can provide an opportunity for local knowledge to both improve the technical assessment and its democratic nature and may ultimately allow environmental managers to better address environmental justice concerns in decision-making.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: Risk Assessment in the Face of Controversy: Tree Clearing and Salinization in North Queensland

/ Several lines of evidence were followed to assess the risk of salinization after tree clearing in the upper Burdekin River basin in north Queensland. Conceptual, biophysical process-based approaches (pedological interpretation, event tree analysis, one-dimensional water balance modeling, and Boolean spatial analysis) were compared to empirical methods and field evidence. The convergence of all lines of conceptual reasoning to the conclusion that there exists a risk of salinization in north Queensland, consistent with field evidence of naturally occurring waterlogging and salinity, strengthens the argument against tree clearing.     

Urban channel adjustments in a management context: an Australian example

The impact of urbanization on stream channels has been investigated in a range of areas; the degree and extent of the channel adjustments have been demonstrated; and for a few areas these characteristics have recently been placed into a spatial context. A method of rapid field survey for depicting the channel network of urban areas in terms of near natural, adjusted, and channelized systems is illustrated for the urban area of Armidale NSW, for which Armidale Dumaresq Council had prepared a stormwater management plan. Such a survey could enable channel characteristics and adjustments, as well as water quantity and quality, to be included in the management plan. Possible options for management to address are suggested for each of the channel categories. A channel classification system of the kind suggested can provide a basic complement for the further development of the stormwater management plan, can afford a basis for specifying management alternatives, and can be helpful in demonstrating the options offered for community consultation.     

Perceptions of Risk Associated with Use of Farm Chemicals: Implications for Conservation Initiatives

/ Data were collected from 245 farmers within the Darby Creek hydrologic unit in central Ohio to assess perceptions of risk associated with use of farm chemicals. Farmers were asked to evaluate the level of risk associated with use of agricultural chemicals for water quality, food safety, food quality, health of applicator, health of farm animals, wildlife, beneficial plants, beneficial insects, and human health. Study findings revealed that respondents perceived use of farm chemicals posed little or no threat to any of the assessed items. A composite index was formulated from the responses to the nine items and was titled Perceived Risk. Variance in the Perceived Risk index was regressed against social learning variables. The findings revealed that approximately 32% of the variance was explained by the predictive variables included in the model. It was concluded that the theoretical perspective was somewhat useful for understanding perceptions held about agricultural chemical use at the farm level. The findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and educational-information programs within the study region.KEY WORDS: Risk perception; Risk assessment; Groundwater; Pesticide contamination; Food safety; Environmental quality     

Application of the DPSIR framework to environmental degradation assessment in northern Ghana

In many communities in northern Ghana, the environment has been altered by complex natural and human driven forces with significant impact on the lives of their inhabitants. The need to formulate an improved, holistic and consistent methodological approach to assess the problem is critical for sustainable natural resource management. This paper examines the potential of the DPSIR environmental assessment framework utilizing GIS‐based participatory methodology in the assessment of environmental degradation in northern Ghana. Community truthing tools such as key informant interviews, focus group discussions, participant observation and participatory Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were employed as a means of soliciting societal responses integrated to conventional GIS spatial analysis to measure the indicators of the Driving force–Pressure–State–Impacts–Response (DPSIR) assessment framework. Post classification GIS imagery results show a marked natural vegetation decrease of 634 km2 (42%) of the study area with a corresponding increase of 600 km² (39%) of grasses and built‐up and barren environment in the period of 14 years from 1990 to 2004. This is attributed to extreme climatic conditions and human driven causes such as poverty, population growth, migration and land tenure system. Poverty reduction strategies, amendment of the Mining and Mineral Law (PNDC law 153), improvement of the existing land tenure system and the control of migrants and Fulani herdsmen from neighbouring Burkina Faso were some of the solutions selected by the research participants, to be emphasized in the National Environmental Action Plan (EPA Act 490). This paper concludes that the DPSIR environmental assessment framework is an effective means of organizing complex environmental information to facilitate policy decision making.     

CRITIQUE—Consumer product safety: Risk assessment of exposure to asbestos emissions from hand-held hair dryers

The paper by Dr. William Hallenbeck of the University of Illinois on pp. 23–32 of this issue ofEnvironmental Management contains an estimate of the risk of respiratory cancer resulting from exposure to asbestos fibers emitted from asbestos-containing hairdryers. The study, which is described as a worst case analysis, concludes that the use of these hairdryers would result in a maximum of 0.15 deaths from respiratory cancer per year in the United States, based on a median case estimate of asbestos fiber emission from hair-dryers. This estimate of risk was developed using data from one epidemiologic study.In this critique, we suggest that the use of other epidemiologic studies and the inclusion of other minor, reasonable changes to the basic assumptions made by Hallenbeck could significantly change the estimate in the direction of greater risk. Indeed, the use of other epidemiologic studies in the risk estimate results in an increase in the predicted risk of up to 3 orders of magnitude. Inclusion of changes both in the epidemiologic study used and in certain model assumptions results in an increased risk prediction of over 4 orders of magnitude in the extreme.Since there is no definitive basis on which to include or exclude certain assumptions or relevant studies, the risk estimate at best must be represented as a range of values. Such a range demonstrates the inherent uncertainties associated with estimating the risk to humans from known carcinogens. The size of the range developed in this analysis may actually be underestimated since no attempt has been made to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the choice of the dose-response model.The material found within this paper contains the views of the authors who are employees of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and does not necessarily reflect official opinions or policies of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission.This paper was prepared in the course of the official duties of the authors as employees of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. It is in the public domain and may be freely copied and reproduced.