壳体厚度对传爆药慢速烤燃响应的研究

针对传爆药在制造、存贮、运输及实战环境中可能会遭受意外的热刺激,本文通过壳体厚度对传爆药慢速烤燃响应特性的影响的实验研究,来检测弹药对意外刺激的敏感程度和发生反应时的剧烈程度,并对实验结果进行了分析。实验以钝化RDX为主装药,以45#钢为壳体,利用自行设计的慢速烤燃试验系统对其进行试验。结果表明：在相同装药条件下,随着壳体厚度的增加,单位时间内传热量减少,体系升温速率减慢,炸药的烤燃时间随之增加,热爆炸延滞期增长;同时,随着壳体厚度的增加传爆药发生慢速烤燃反应的温度升高,热敏感程度降低,热安定性也随之提高。另外,在相同装药条件下,壳体厚度对慢速烤燃响应的剧烈性也有很大得影响。烤燃反应的剧烈程度随着壳体厚度的增大而减小。     

故障模式影响分析法在弹药安全性失效分析中的应用

为找出某122 mm加农炮爆破榴弹膛炸和某105 mm无坐力炮破甲弹早发火的原因,采用故障模式影响分析法进行失效分析.结果表明,装药存在空洞是造成该膛炸的根本原因.通过分析造成该122 mm加农炮爆破榴弹的膛炸机理和半爆机理,制定了避免卡壳弹流入生产线、对装药弹体进行X光透视检查等应对措施;早发火是由于发射药被烘燃和明火点燃造成的.根据造成该105 mm无坐力炮破甲弹早发火的机理分析,制定的应对措施是进一步改善塑料袋的高温燃烧性能,使之在发射后不留下残片和底座套管,进一步比较了塑料布和牛皮纸在无坐力炮药筒装药上的燃烧性能,选取了最优方案.     

库房火灾事故中弹药热安全性研究

为研究不同火灾条件下弹药发生慢速烤燃的升温速率,以典型地面仓库和舰船舱室火灾为研究对象,建立仿真模型,模拟计算发生火灾时弹药贮存环境的热激源强度及其演化规律,针对发动机在此类环境下的热安全性开展仿真计算,分析其响应规律。研究结果表明：不同火灾条件下弹药慢速烤燃的升温速率有很大区别且往往高于标准慢速烤燃试验常用的升温速率3.3 K/h。随着慢速烤燃升温速率的提高,发动机烤燃点火时间提前,点火时刻发动机中间位置温度下降,两端温度升高,且点火位置向发动机喉部移动。研究结果可以指导弹药库房的设计及弹药安全性增强设计。     

细水雾抑制18650型锂离子电池热失控实验研究

为研究细水雾灭火系统对18650型锂电池热失控的抑制效果,利用自设计实验平台进行抑爆实验,对比初爆与燃爆两个关键点及有无外部热源的温度变化图。研究表明,细水雾能够明显抑制18650型锂电池热失控,但施加细水雾的时间点对抑制效果影响较大,初爆后施加细水雾能够有效抑制,在燃爆后施加细水雾10s内温度降低200℃以上,但由于锂电池内部电解液复燃的特点,温度回升。温升速率的变化使得电池初爆的时间和温度分别提前了67.4%和44.4%,据此提出通过探测18650型锂电池初爆释放气体发现热失控发生并在最短时间内移除异常行为电池来控制电池热失控及其热量的异常传播。     

RDX基PBX在高温条件下热损伤表征试验研究

炸药热损伤特征及演化行为对装药安全性具有重要影响。为探究高聚物黏结剂炸药(Polymer Binder Explosive, PBX)在不同温度载荷下的内部损伤和演化行为,对无约束状态下炸药进行烤燃试验,使用分析天平监测炸药的质量变化,并采用显微镜和扫描电子显微镜等技术对炸药样品的表面和内部损伤进行表征。结果表明：温度越高,炸药的质量损失越大且损失速率越快;加热过程中黏结剂先发生熔化,随着加热时间变长和温度升高,黏结剂熔化程度增大,流动性增强,气体从炸药表面孔洞内逸出,孔洞增多且尺寸变大;温度越高炸药内部出现的孔隙越多,孔隙尺寸越大,孔隙主要是由于气体从试样内部逸出形成;炸药内部比表面积变化趋势为上升—下降—上升,其变化趋势受到化学反应速率和黏结剂的流动及损失影响。黏结剂材料的热稳定性是影响炸药热损伤演化行为的重要因素。     

不同外热功率下18650锂离子电池热失控特性*

为探究不同外热功率（220,170,120,70 W）下锂离子电池的热失控特性,采用动压变温实验舱作为燃爆实验舱,并利用量热仪和ISO-9705烟气分析仪监测特征参数,对荷电状态（SOC）为100%的18650型锂离子电池进行高温热失控实验。结果表明:在不同的外热功率条件下,锂离子电池进入热失控的过程呈现出相似的趋势,但是各阶段的特性却存在差异。池体表面中心温度、HRR,THR和耗氧量均随外热功率的降低而降低。高外热功率下燃爆响应时间点明显提前,池体温度更高,220 W外热功率下,燃爆响时间点为176 s,池体温度为720.6 ℃,比70 W时提前366 s,高210.03 ℃,可见高外热功率时,电池热危害性更高。热解烟气CO的峰值体积百分比浓度随着外热功率的降低而升高,而CxHy的峰值质量百分比浓度降低,,CO2的峰值体积百分比浓度降低。在70 W外热功率时,CO峰值体积百分比浓度高达0.322%,220 W时CO峰值体积百分比浓度仅为0.165%,说明低外热功率时,电池毒危害性更高。     

壳体缓释技术对带壳装药慢速烤燃反应烈度的缓解作用研究

为了研究2种典型壳体缓释技术对弹药慢速烤燃响应烈度的缓解作用,基于试验条件分别建立无缓释设计、侧壁加工应力槽和端盖加工泄压孔的带壳PBX装药慢速烤燃仿真模型,提出使用热分解反应动力学模型和燃烧反应模型模拟计算不同约束条件下带壳PBX装药从开始加热发生热分解反应到点火燃烧以及炸药与壳体耦合作用的烤燃过程的计算方法。研究结果表明：通过侧壁加工应力槽以及端盖加工泄压孔的缓释结构设计,可以有效地降低壳体破裂时炸药内部的压力及反应度,以达到缓解反应烈度的目的。     

某恒温间歇反应的热失控研究

为得到某恒温间歇反应冷却系统临界温度Tc并评估该反应体系的热危险性,基于间歇反应体系热参数的敏感性,探讨数值计算方法和选用4种反应热失控临界判据得到的不同Tc值。结果表明,数值计算方法得到了反应体系的Tc为31.7℃,Semenov判据、Sliding判据、Da/St判据得到的Tc值分别为10℃,17℃和27℃;无量纲绝热温升B给出的结论是,在允许的工艺温度范围内,该反应对任意的冷却系统温度都处于难以控制状态。数值计算方法及各判据得到的Tc的较大差异性说明各方法均有一定的局限性。在运用参数敏感性分析的基础上,结合风险矩阵图方法对系统冷却失效的热危险性进行评估,得到不同Tc下风险可接受、有条件接受及不可接受对应的参数范围的物料累积度Xac与最大反应速率到达时间θ间的关系。     

通风开口对轰燃影响的数值模拟

轰燃是建筑火灾中的一个重要的火现象,室内局部火的发展过程中,热烟气向水源基底辐射,在一定条件下会产生正反馈,导致热烟气温度和火源释放速率急剧增加,从而转变成遍及整个房间的大火,轰燃的产生与否受到很多因素的影响,尝试利用CFAST对轰燃现象进行数值模拟,讨论了不同的通风开口条件对轰燃发生时热烟气温度和热释放速率的影响,计算机结果表明,当开口面积固定时,竖直开口比水平开口需要更大的火源释热速率,另外也指明了,多数情况下用CFAST对轰燃进行计算是可能的,但在某些临界条件下计算会终止。     

锂离子电池燃爆特征及空运安全性研究

为解决与锂离子电池热失控有关的空运安全问题,利用自主设计的锂电池火灾试验平台,对不同包装、数量及荷电状态(SOC)的18650型锂离子电池开展燃爆试验研究。观察锂离子电池热失控现象,进行阶段划分,研究锂离子电池热失控传播过程;记录不同条件下锂离子电池初爆响应时间、燃爆峰值温度及峰值温度持续时间,考察不同包装、数量及SOC对锂离子电池空运安全的影响。结果表明:锂离子电池燃烧可分为初爆和燃爆2个阶段,一节电池热失控可形成连锁燃烧反应;电池热稳定性随SOC增大而显著降低;空运电池数量严重影响空运安全;用瓦楞纸包装时,燃爆峰值温度高达820℃,不能提高锂离子电池安全性。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。