Comprehensive evaluation of heavy metal contamination of sediment in Lake Dianchi by using modified AHP method and Cs dating

Through the use of general sampling and measurement by ¹³⁷ Cs dating, problems regarding the absence of monitoring data can easily be resolved. Further, weighted values need to be determined while Environment Quality Comprehensive Index (EQCI) is commonly used as applied in environmental quality comprehensive evaluation. In order to overcome the subjectivity in determining weights, the modified Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was designed. The modified AHP method involved the following key procedures: First, the parameters y_i1 and y_i2 were calculated based on the monitoring data; second, the factors were put in order according to the symbol and value of y_i1 and y_i2; third, the continuous odd integers, which represented the importance of factors, were given to factors according to their seating order; and, fourth, the factor weights were determined from the pair-wise comparison matrix calculated by the ratio of the given odd integers. Therefore, the weights were completely based on the monitoring data. In the present study, the comprehensive quality of sediments in five sections of Lake Dianchi were evaluated and the results indicated that the current contamination of sediments in each lake section is much more serious than at any other time in history.     

Trendanalysen mit Mann-Kendall-Test und Theil-Schätzer

Goal and Scope

The influence of the measurement uncertainty on the outcomes of statistical evaluations is shown.

Methods

Examplarily using data from the Environmental Specimen Bank the influence of measurement uncertainties on results of trned analyses (Mann Kendall test and Theil estimator) was tested. Both, the simple and the double measurement uncertainty were tested, as well as the standard deviation of repeated measurements.

Results

Considering measurement uncertainty means that not points but intervals are used. A value y_j is then considered larger [smaller] than y_i if applies: y_j-u(y_j>y_i+u(y_i) [y_j+u(y_j)<y_i-u(y_j)], where u(y_j) and u(y_i) are measurement uncertainties of y_j and y_i. Mann Kendall test of trend will react more conservatively (in sense of the maintenance of null hypothesis: no trend), when measurement uncertainties are considered. Thus, the resulting trend statements will be safer.

Outlook

For future application a decision is neccessary about the kind of the measurement uncertainty to be used (none, simple, double, standard deviation). Part 2 will deal with weighting of the data.     

Soil erosion hazard evaluation—An integrated use of remote sensing,GIS and statistical approaches with biophysical parameters towards management strategies

Soil erosion hazard maps can be an essential tool in erosion prone areas as they explain and display the distribution of hazards and areas likely to be affected to different magnitudes. Therefore, it is very useful to planners and policy makers initiating remedial measures and for prioritizing areas. In this study, a numerical model was developed for soil erosion hazard assessment, in which Z-score analysis was combined with a geographical information system (GIS) to compute a synthetic soil erosion hazard index (SEHI). For this model, nine factors which have notable impact on soil erosion were selected. To generate the selected factors remote sensing, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS techniques along with spatial models were applied. To standardize all of the factors and establish the factor weights, the AHP method was adopted. For Z-score analysis with selected standardized factors, the Integrated Land and Water Information System (ILWIS) software was used and nine individual layers with Z-scores were prepared. Afterwards, the layers were integrated with their factor weights by means of a weighted linear combination to derive a SEHI value for each pixel. To classify the discrete SEHI map to represent a meaningful regionalization of soil erosion hazard, the equal distance cluster principle was used and graded into four levels of hazard; very high, high, moderate and low. The results depicted that in general, a moderate hazardous condition of soil erosion was found in the study area and the proposed approach was also able to identify the areas under high and very high hazards that require urgent intervention on a priority basis. Based on this study, comprehensive erosion hazard management strategies were anticipated for the efficient management of present and future erosion disaster in the area.     

Theoretical analysis of change in forest carbon use efficiency with stand development: A case study on Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) plantation from the seedling stage

Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP), were estimated for the aerial parts of the Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) with respect to stand development. The analysis incorporated previously published data from the early stages of stand development, namely the seedling stages of the cypress. For this analysis, a simple mathematical model to assess the changes in CUE was developed by incorporating data on physiological variables and mass of woody species. The CUE tended to increase with increases in the aboveground biomass of the stand, and then decreased gradually despite increases in the aboveground biomass. The CUE-value (0.28, 0.39) of the seedling stage was lower than that (0.33-0.58) of the young or mature trees. To examine the effect of physiological variables and mass on CUE, the ratios of the specific respiration rate to the specific photosynthetic rate (r/a) and the leaf biomass to the aboveground biomass or leaf mass ratio (y_L/y_T) were calculated. The low value of CUE at the seedling stage was due to the high ratio of specific respiration rate to specific photosynthetic rate r/a, but was not due to the high value of the leaf mass ratio y_L/y_T. In addition, the decline in CUE associated with older stages of stand development was due to the decreasing changes in y_L/y_T, and the r/a ratio did not influence the change in CUE.     

多氯代苯并噻吩分子空间坐标指数与气相色谱保留时间的QSPR研究

运用Chem Office软件绘制37个多氯代苯并噻吩三维图,并得到对应的分子空间坐标Pi(xi,yi,zi)。以多氯代苯并噻吩分子的原子距离指数、分子空间特征指数、分子电性距离矢量、氯原子数为分子描述变量,采用多元线性回归和BP人工神经网络建立描述变量与多氯代苯并噻吩的气相色谱保留时间的QSPR模型。结果表明:多元线性回归建模相关系数R=0.9970,SD=2.1830,基于BP人工神经网络建立的模型R=0.9996,SD=0.3123。为多氯代苯并噻吩分子结构与物性的QSPR研究提供了新思路。     

Genetic structure of fissiparous populations of Holothuria (Halodeima) atra on the Great Barrier Reef

Allozyme variation at five polymorphic loci was surveyed in a total of 311 individuals of the sea cucumber Holothuria (Halodeima) atra (Jäger, 1833) collected from two nearshore and two midshelf populations in the Great Barrier Reef in November 1996. Strong deviations in genotype frequencies from those expected under Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, particularly a large number of heterozygote excesses, confirmed the occurrence of asexual reproduction. Females and males differed significantly in genotype frequencies as a result of differences in either the amount of fission in each sex or in the mortality of asexually produced recruits. The estimated maximum sexual input (number of sexually produced individuals: sample size = N*:N_i) to the two nearshore reefs (38 to 67%) was low relative to that to the two midshelf reefs (74 to 87%). The three ratios and G _o :G _e , N _go :N _i , N*:N _i , (where G _o = observed genotypic diversity, G _e = expected genotypic diversity, N _go = number of genotypes) considered to be indicators of the extent of asexual reproduction, showed a consistent trend in the degree of asexual reproduction similar to that derived from the number of regenerating individuals observed in the populations for which data were available. F-statistic analyses of clonal gene frequencies demonstrated that all populations received sexual recruits from the same gene pool. There was evidence of restricted sexual recruitment to the Fantome population, suggesting that asexual reproduction was dominant only in areas where sexual recruitment was limited by other factors.     

Environmental modeling of uranium interstitial compositions of non-stoichiometric oxides: experimental and theoretical analysis

Study of uranium interstitial compositions of non-stoichiometric oxides UO_2+x (x ∈ 0.1–0.02) in gas and condense phases has been presented, using various soft-ionization mass spectrometric methods such as ESI-, APCI-, and MALDI-MS at a wide dynamic temperature gradient (∈ 25–300 °C). Linearly polarized vibrational spectroscopy has been utilized in order to assign unambiguously, the vibrational frequencies of uranium non-stoichiometric oxides. Experimental design has involved xUO_2.66·yUO_2.33, xUO_2.66·yUO_2.33/SiO₂, xUO_2.66·yUO_2.33/SiO₂ (NaOH) and SiO₂/x′NaOH·y′UO₂(NO₃)₂·6H₂O, multicomponent systems (x = 1, y ∈ 0.1–1.0 and x′ = 1, y′ ∈ 0.1–0.6) as well as phase transitions UO₂(NO₃)₂·6H₂O → {U₄O₉(UO_2.25)} → U₃O₇(UO_2.33) → U₃O₈(UO_2.66) → {UO₃}, thus ensuring a maximal representativeness to real environmental conditions, where diverse chemical, geochemical and biochemical reactions, including complexation and sorption onto minerals have occurred. Experimental factors such as UV-irradiation, pH, temperature, concentration levels, solvent types and ion strength have been taken into consideration, too. As far as uranium speciation represents a challenging analytical task in terms of chemical identification diverse coordination species, mechanistic aspects relating incorporation of oxygen into UO _2+x form the shown full methods validation significantly impacts the field of environmental radioanalytical chemistry. UO₂ is the most commonly used fuel in nuclear reactors around the globe; however, a large non-stoichiometric range ∈ UO_1.65–UO_2.25 has occurred due to radiolysis of water on UO₂ surface yielding to H₂O₂, OH^·, and more. Each of those compositions has different oxygen diffusion. And in this respect enormous effort has been concentrated to study the potential impact of hazardous radionuclide on the environment, encompassing from the reprocessing to the disposal stages of the fuel waste, including the waste itself, the processes in the waste containers, the clay around the containers, and geological processes. In a broader sense, thereby, this study contributes to field of environmental analysis highlighting the great ability of various soft-ionization MS methods, particularly, MALDI-MS one, for direct assay of complex multicomponent heterogeneous mixtures at fmol–attomol concentration ranges, along with it the great instrumental features allowing, not only meaningful quantitative, but also structural information of the analytes, thus making the method indispensable for environmental speciation of radionuclides, generally.     

Parameter fitting in dynamic models

We consider the numerical approaches for the least squares estimation of the parameter vector p in the initial value problem y′ = g(t, y, p), y(t₀) = y₀(p) when observations are available on some or all components of the vector y(t). Special attention is paid to the development of techniques which, although not global, are less sensitive to initial parameter estimates than the standard approach employing the sensitivity equations. Experience indicates that interactive approaches can be very valuable when good starting parameter approximations are unavailable. We describe the main features of our interactive parameter fitting package PARFIT. This package contains standard techniques employing the sensitivity equations as well as special algorithms designed to improve poor parameter estimates. These special algorithms have been selected and developed with user interaction in mind. We describe in detail one special approach designed for the case when observations are not available on all state variables. An example (using computer generated observations) is presented to illustrate this approach. Finally, the power of an interactive approach is demonstrated with two examples involving attempts to model physically observed phenomena.     

A reliability index for models

Since the prediction of environmental changes depends heavily on mathematical models, environmental planners have a definite need for a general test that can be easily applied to determine the reliability of a model or to choose between available models. In this paper a ‘reliability index’ for a model is defined. This index is a number k ? 1 which is determined from a set x₁,x₂,…,x_n of model predictions and a corresponding set y₁,y₂,…,y_n of observations. One interpretation of the index k is that the model predictions agree with observations, in some sense, within a factor of k. The index k is defined using an intuitive, geometric approach and is justified through agreement with another index developed using statistical techniques. Examples are given for a model which predicts the atmospheric movement of radon-222 originating from a concentrated source of radium-226, such as a uranium tailings pile.     

Effect of streambed bacteria release on E. coli concentrations: Monitoring and modeling with the modified SWAT

Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.     

Designing environmental monitoring networks to measure extremes

This paper discusses challenges arising in the design of networks for monitoring extreme values over the domain of a random environmental space-time field {X _ij } i = 1, . . . , I denoting site and j = 1, . . . denoting time (e.g. hour). The field of extremes for time span r over site domain i = 1, . . . ,I is given by \(\{Y_{i(r+1)}=\max_{j=k}^{k+n-1} X_{ij}\}\) for k = 1 + rn, r = 0, . . . ,. Such networks must not only measure extremes at the monitored sites but also enable their prediction at the non-monitored ones. Designing such a network poses special challenges that do not seem to have been generally recognized. One of these problems is the loss of spatial dependence between site responses in going from the environmental process to the field of extremes it generates. In particular we show empirically that the intersite covariance Cov(Y _i(r+1),Y _i′(r+1)) can generally decline toward zero as r increases, for site pairs i ≠ i′. Thus the measured extreme values may not predict the unmeasured ones very precisely. Consequently high levels of pollution exposure of a sensitive group (e.g. school children) located between monitored sites may be overlooked. This potential deficiency raises concerns about the adequacy of air pollution monitoring networks whose primary role is the detection of noncompliance with air quality standards based on extremes designed to protect human health. The need to monitor for noncompliance and thereby protect human health, points to other issues. How well do networks designed to monitor the field monitor their fields of extremes? What criterion should be used to select prospective monitoring sites when setting up or adding to a network? As the paper demonstrates by assessing an existing network, the answer to the first question is not well, at least in the case considered. To the second, the paper suggests a variety of plausible answers but shows through a simulation study, that they can lead to different optimum designs. The paper offers an approach that circumvents the dilemma posed by the answer to the second question. That approach models the field of extremes (suitably transformed) by a multivariate Gaussian-Inverse Wishart hierarchical Bayesian distribution. The adequacy of this model is empirically assessed in an application by finding the relative coverage frequency of the predictive credibility ellipsoid implied by its posterior distribution. The favorable results obtained suggest this posterior adequately describes that (transformed) field. Hence it can form the basis for designing an appropriate network. Its use is demonstrated by a hypothetical extension of an existing monitoring network. That foundation in turn enables a network to be designed of sufficient density (relative to cost) to serve its regulatory purpose.     

Optimum forage allocation through chance-constrained programming

Most resource allocation models developed to aid resource planning have been deterministic; that is, the ecosystem and economic variables are assumed to be known with certainty. It is these elements that present problems concerning risk and uncertainty involved in decision making. The objective of this study is to present a mathematical approach for optimizing resource allocation in management situations in which random events occur. This particular technique of decision analysis is chance-constrained programming. The model makes possible the investigation of risk and uncertainty associated with resource management decision making. Range decision-makers must often stock their range before they are sure of the available forage; thus, the amount of available forage is a random element with which managers must contend. The chance-constrained approach to decision making may be used when such random events occur and when it is not possible to plan exactly for future events. Two parameters are used to adjust the mean value of constraints; these are the standard deviation of the constraint value (S_bi) and the probability term which is specified by the manager (K_αi). The mean values are adjusted by the product K_αiS_bi. In the study reported here, a K_αi value of 0.57 gave results which appeared to have usefulness. The results indicate that the penalties a rancher must assume for over-estimating his carrying capacity are greater than the penalties for underestimating the carrying capacity. With the value of the standard deviation used in the example, numbers of livestock and the corresponding net revenues should be about 22% less than those indicated by average forage production. With greater variation in forage production, the reduction would be greater. By using these values, the chance-constrained approach can meaningfully incorporate random variables into a decision model.     

Laboratory evaluation of kinetic parameters for lake sediment denitrification models

Laboratory experiments using the acetylene blockage technique showed that denitrification rates in sediments from Lake Okeechobee, Florida, are described by Michaelis-Menten nitrate dependence and Arrhenius temperature dependence (E_act = 15.5 kcal, but do not appear to be affected by seasonal differences in the supply of carbon substrates in this eutrophic lake. Peak nitrate concentrations in the sediments are in the range of the half-saturation constant, and thus, for a given temperature, k_d varies by a factor of approximately two over the typical range of nitrate concentrations. Most diagenetic sediment denitrification models employ a single-valued rate constant k_d, to describe nitrate dependence. However, the use of a constant k_d for eutrophic lake sediments may result in a significantly erroneous estimate of annual denitrification loss.     

Observation of bioturbation and hyporheic flux in streambeds

In the Elkhorn River, burrows, tubes, and sediment mounds created by invertebrate bioturbation were observed in the exposed streambed and commonly concentrated on the fine-sediment patches, which consist of silt, clay, and organic matter. These invertebrate activities could loosen the thin layer of clogging sediments and result in an increase of pore size in the sediments, leading to greater vertical hydraulic conductivity of the streambed (K _v ). The measurements of the vertical hydraulic gradient across the submerged streambed show that vertical flux in the hyporheic zone can alter directions (upward versus downward) for two locations only a few meters apart. In situ permeameter tests show that streambed K _v in the upper sediment layer is much higher than that in the lower sediment layer, and the calculated K _v in the submerged streambed is consistently greater than that in the clogged sediments around the shorelines of the sand bars. Moreover, a phenomenon of gas bubble release at the water-sediment interface from the subsurface sediments was observed in the groundwater seepage zone where flow velocity is extremely small. The bursting of gas bubbles can potentially break the thin clogging layer of sediments and enhance the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the streambed.     

A model for measuring leaf growth rate of vegetative shoot in the seagrass, Zostera marina

A new model for determining leaf growth in vegetative shoots of the seagrass Zostera marina (eelgrass) is described. This model requires the weights of individual mature and immature whole leaves and leaf plastochrone interval (P_L) as parameters, differing from the conventional leaf marking technique (CLM) that requires cutting and separation between new and old tissue of leaves. The techniques required for the model are the same as for the plastochrone method, but the parameters differ between both methods in use of the weight of individual immature leaves. In a mesocosm study, eelgrass growth was examined, and parameters for the new model and plastochrone method (the weights of individual mature and immature leaves and P_L) were measured. Leaf growth rate was measured using the CLM and determined by the new method and the plastochrone method. The results were then compared between the CLM, the new model, and the plastochrone method. The results obtained with the new model were similar to those obtained with the CLM. However, the results of the plastochrone method differed from those of the CLM, while the weight of immature leaves varied seasonally. The new model was also used to determine leaf growth in a natural eelgrass bed in Mikawa Bay, Japan, and revealed the growth rates in all shoots and those of different ages. This method would be advantageous as an accurate means of direct measurement in fieldwork, and should therefore be a useful tool for monitoring seagrass growth.     

Different proxies for the reactivity of aquatic sediments towards oxygen: A model assessment

Information on benthic carbon mineralization rates is often derived from the analysis of oxygen microprofiles in sediments. To enable a direct comparison of different sediment environments, it is often desirable to characterize sediments by a single proxy that expresses their “reactivity” towards oxygen. For this, there are three commonly used proxies: the oxygen penetration depth (OPD), the oxygen flux at the sediment-water interface (DOU), and the maximum volumetric oxygen consumption rate (R_max). The OPD can be directly determined from the oxygen depth profile, while the DOU is usually obtained by a linear fit to the oxygen gradient either in diffusive boundary layer. The oxygen consumption rate R_max requires the fitting of a reactive-transport model to the data profile. This article shows that the OPD alone is a suboptimal proxy, because it shows a strong dependence on the half-saturation constant K_s, and secondly, because it is sensitive to the particular re-oxidation conditions right above the oxic-anoxic interface. Similarly, the volumetric oxygen consumption rate R_max is rather strongly dependent on the kinetic model formulation employed. To show this we fitted three different (Bouldin, Blackman and Monod) kinetics to the same oxygen data profiles. When fitting these models, the R_max values obtained differed by 20% for exactly the same oxygen profile. Accordingly, if one reports R_max values, it is crucial to specify the kinetic model alongside. Overall, DOU emerges as sediment reactivity proxy which is the least model dependent.     

Effects of prey concentration,prey size,predator life stage,predator starvation,and season on predation rates of the carnivorous copepod Euchaeta elongata

Adult females of the large carnivorous copepod Euchaeta elongata Esterly were collected from 1977 to 1980 in Port Susan, Washington, USA. Predation rates of the adult females increased with increasing prey abundance when fed the following 4 sizes of copepods: adult females of Calanus pacificus (average prosome length [PL] of 2 650 μm), adults of Aetideus divergens (PL of 1 560 μm), adult females of Pseudocalanus spp. (PL of 1 060 μm), and nauplii of C. pacificus (PL of 410 μm). Saturation feeding levels were reached when adult females of the predator were fed the small adult copepod, Pseudocalanus spp. Maximum biomass ingested of this small copepod was more than the maximum amount ingested of the larger copepods. Predation rates of the predatory copepodids at Stages IV and V also increased with increasing concentration of the 1 060 μm (PL) prey. High feeding rates exhibited by both adults and copepodids at Stage V of the predator indicate their importance as sources of mortality on populations of small copepods. Ingestion efficiency E _i (prey wholly consumed [prey attacked]^-1) varied as follows: adults of E. elongata were more efficient than copepodids of E. elongata; adults were more efficient than copepodids when ingesting smaller prey; starved adults were more efficient than fed ones; and both adults and copepodids were more efficient at low food concentrations. For adults of E. elongata, there were no marked seasonal variations in predation or respiratory rates that would represent acclimatory responses; however, small adults obtained during winter were more efficient at ingesting prey than were the larger adults gathered in summer. This seasonal variation in the efficiency of ingestion may be a useful indicator of physiological state: high E _i values could indicate that predators are starving in winter, and low E _i values could indicate that predators are satiated in summer.     

Comprehensive health condition assessment on partial sewers in a southern Chinese city based on fuzzy mathematic methods

A self-developed sewer health assessment system using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytical hierarchy process was applied to give a comprehensive health condition evaluation on part of the local sewers in a southern Chinese city based on the sewer video data collected by a sewer inspection closed circuit television （CCTV） robot. Aside from the overall condition evaluation, the structure, function, and stability status of the sewer were also analyzed using the method. A comprehensive index H was proposed to give the overall health condition of pipes with different defects, and Ht, Hs, and If were used to quantify the defects affecting the tightness, stability, and function of the pipe, respectively. Results show that 48% of the inspected pipes were in good condition （0〈H〈0.25）, and about 33% of the sewer pipes analyzed were categorized to be at severe or urgent condition levels （H 〉 0.5）, although most of the pipes were installed only within five years. Frequent sedimentation affects the function of the sewer, and deformation and joint damage affect the structure of the sewer.     

Mathematical analysis of change in forest carbon use efficiency with stand development: A case study on Abies veitchii Lindl.

Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP), were analyzed for Abies veitchii Lindl. forests with respect to stand development by developing a simple mathematical model incorporating data on physiological variables and leaf mass ratio. A decrease in CUE with stand development was successfully expressed as a function of stand biomass (y) based on the following three assumptions: (1) a power-law relationship between mean respiration and mean individual tree mass, (2) a power-functional relationship between mean gross primary production and mean individual tree mass, and (3) self-thinning relationship between stand biomass and density. Based on this model, a parameter of CUE–y relationship was defined, and it was clarified that CUE decrease with stand development is caused not by the ratio of specific respiration rate to specific gross photosynthetic rate, but by leaf mass ratio. Since CUE is high in young forests, helpful information on selecting woody species when planting seedlings was provided from the viewpoints of reducing CO₂ in the atmosphere and global warming.