Entrainment mortality of Ichthyoplankton: Detectability and precision of estimates

The ability to detect and to develop a precise and accurate estimate of the entrainment mortality fraction is an important step in projecting power plant impacts on future fish population levels. Recent work indicates that these mortailities may be considerably less than 100% for some fish species in the early life stages. Point estimates of the entrainment mortality fraction have been developed based on probabilistic arguments, but the precision of these estimates has not been studied beyond the simple statistical test of the null hypothesis that no entrainment mortaility exists.The ability to detect entrainment mortality is explored as a function of the sample sizes (numbers of organisms collected) at the intake and discharge sampling stations of a power plant and of the proportion of organisms found alive in the intake samples (intake survival). Minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error (probability of accepting the null hypothesis of no entrainment mortality when there is mortality) are considered. Increasing sample size and/or decreasing sampling mortality will decrease the minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error for a given level of type I error.The results of this study are considered in the context of designing useful monitoring programs for determining the entrainment mortality fraction. Preliminary estimates of intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to obtain estimates of the sample size needed for a specified level of confidence interval width or type II error. Final estimates of the intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to determine the minimum detectable entrainment mortality and the type II error.     

PERFORMANCE VARIATIONS OF COD AND NITROGEN REMOVAL BY VEGETATED SUBMERGED BED WETLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Vegetated submerged bed wetlands can supplement treatment of onsite wastewater systems. This study evaluated vegetation, media, and seasonal impacts on system performance in six meso scale rock plant filters with and without narrow leaf cattails (Typha augustifolia). Daily chemical oxygen demand (COD) reductions in planted cells averaged 85 percent and weekly total nitrogen (TN) reductions averaged 50 percent. Planted cells had 17 percent greater COD reduction and 76 percent greater TN reduction than unplanted cells, both significant differences. Media type affected COD reduction, particularly in unplanted cells. COD treatment in planted cells was highest for fine crushed limestone (87±13 percent) and least variable for coarse river gravel (85±11 percent). No significant difference in TN reduction was observed for different media types (48 to 51 percent range). Seasonal influences on treatment included a significant decrease during late fall and early spring and a significant increase with temperature. After a step increase in organic loading, treatment efficiency decreased sharply but returned to prior levels after an adaptation period of about one month. Planted cells not only exhibited higher treatment efficiency but also had a retarded organic matter breakthrough, appearing after three to seven times the period for a bromide tracer. This supports a hypothesis that retardation of contaminant movement through the treatment cells results in enhanced removal. These results support the use of rock plant filters, but demonstrate the need to account for performance variations in system design. (KEY TERMS: constructed wetlands; seasonal effects; subsurface flow; Typha augustifolia; onsite wastewater treatment; water quality.)     

Impingement losses of white perch at Hudson River power plants: Magnitude and biological significance

We performed a quantitative assessment of the impact of impingement at power plants on the Hudson River white perch population We estimated that impingement reduces the abundance of each white perch year class by at least 10% and probably by 15–20% or more after 2–3 years of vulnerability to power plants We attempted to detect effects of impingement on average year-class abundance of white perch from a time series of abundance indices derived from impingement data We found, however, that neither impingement collection rates observed at Hudson River power plants nor beach seine data provide a reliable index of year-class strength in white perch. Even if a reliable index were developed, natural fluctuations in year-class strength are great enough that a short-term monitoring program would be inadequate for detecting even a large reduction in average year-class strength. We performed a multipopulation analysis using simple food chain and food web models The results suggest that any long-term decline in white perch abundance caused by impingement should be accompanied by an increase in the abundance of one or more competing fish species and by an increase in the biomass of adult white perch relative to young-of-the-year.We conclude that 1) at present, assessments of population-level impact of impingement should focus on short-term effects, 2) research is needed to develop a reliable index of year-class strength for use in long-term monitoring programs, 3) identification and quantification of natural environmental factors influencing year-class strength are needed to improve our ability to predict and detect changes in abundance, and 4) it would be useful in designing monitoring programs to focus on detecting patterns of change among populations and age groups rather than solely on declines in abundance of individual populationsResearch sponsored by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Interagency Agreement No. 40-550-75 with the US Department of Energy under Contract W-7405-eng-26 with Union Carbide Corporation. Publication No. 2030, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.     

Does improved waste treatment have demonstrable biological benefits?

Since 1972, 10 benthic surveys and 9 static fish bioassays have been conducted to assess the impact of AVTEX Fibers, Inc. effluent on the lower South Fork of the Shenandoah River. AVTEX (formerly FMC Corp.) is a rayon and polyester fibers plant located in Front Royal, Virginia. Benthic samples were taken at four stations, one above and three below the plant discharges. Single surveys in 1972 and 1973 indicated a severe impact on the benthic community along the right side of the river, below the plant, as a result of the channelized effluent. Diversity values (¯d) were low (0–2.42) and numbers of taxa and organisms were reduced. A fish bioassay in 1973 indicated the effluent to be acutely toxic at the 34.5% level (mixture of effluent and river water). In early 1974, FMC Corp. constructed an activated sludge treatment system to reduce BOD and supplement the neutralization and chemical precipitation (zinc hydroxide and liquid-solid separation) facilities that had been used to treat waste waters since 1948. After the new equipment was placed in operation, the previously stressed area became more stable. In 1975 and 1976 the stressed area exhibited greater ¯d values (1.19–3.39) and an increased number of taxa and organisms. Bioassays showed the effluent to be acutely toxic to fish only once since 1973. The major improvements in the effluent were a 70% reduction in BOD₅ and a 60% reduction in the amount of zinc entering the river. Community conditions in 1977 indicated a partial remission of improvement, probably due to drought conditions.The rehabilitation of damaged ecosystems is a process important to all biologists. An important factor in encouraging industry to participate in this activity is evidence that improved waste treatment will often have demonstrable biological benefits rather soon. As data accumulate on the recovery process it may be possible to predict the degree of rehabilitation and time required more precisely.     

URBANIZATION INFLUENCES ON AQUATIC COMMUNITIES IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Biotic indices and sediment trace element concentrations for 43 streams in northeastern Illinois (Chicago area) from the 1980s and 1990s were examined along an agricultural to urban land cover gradient to explore the relations among biotic integrity, sediment chemistry, and urbanization. The Illinois fish Alternative Index of Biotic Integrity (AIBI) ranged from poor to excellent in agricultural/rural streams, but streams with more than 10 percent watershed urban land (about 500 people/mi²) had fair or poor index scores. A macroinvertebrate index (MBI) showed similar trends. A qualitative habitat index (PIBI) did not correlate to either urban indicator. The AIBI and MBI correlated with urban associated sediment trace element concentrations. Elevated copper concentrations in sediment occurred in streams with greater than 40 percent watershed urban land. The number of intolerant fish species and modified index of biotic integrity scores increased in some rural, urbanizing, and urban streams from the 1980s to 1990s, with the largest increases occurring in rural streams with loamy/sandy surficial deposits. However, smaller increases also occurred in urban streams with clayey surficial deposits and over 50 percent watershed urban land. These data illustrate the potentially complex spatial and temporal relations among biotic integrity, sediment chemistry, watershed urban land, population density, and regional and local geologic setting.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY OF POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES IN THE SANGAMON RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of stream flow and several water quality parameters in six Illinois rivers showed both deterioration and improvement in quality indicators during 1976–1977 drought. The adverse impacts were an increase of ammonia and manganese concentrations and, to a lesser degree, increased concentrations of phenol and specific conductance. At the worst point during the drought, the 12-month moving average of monthly ammonia concentration in the Sangamon River was about 620 percent higher than the antecedent value. On the other hand, average concentrations of nitrites and nitrates, total iron, and the number of coliform bacteria significantly decreased. This positive response suggests that streams which are considered unsuitable for municipal supply due to high levels of these quality indicators may be used as emergency sources during droughts.     

1976 Illinois drought: Evidence for improved water quality

During 1976, Illinois experienced a mild drought, of i ntensity equivalent to the once in 5 years frequency. It was anticipated that the drought would result in deteriorated water quality because dilution of point source discharges would be diminished. Furthermore, because productivity in Illinois streams is light limited, reduced runoff should result in clearer streams, higher algae levels, and greater variability in dissolved oxygen levels. In spite of these expectations, both chemical and biologic data showed that water quality in 1976 was appreciably better than that before 1975. The information provided by the Illinois water quality index (Janardan and Schaeffer 1977) coincides with biologic analyses of benthic invertebrates. The index supports and supplements the biologic data and provides a means for quantifying and integrating chemical and biologic data.The results of this study showed that the drought had little, if any, effect on statewide water quality. Although the magnitude of the drought varied across the state, water quality remained unchanged between 1975 and 1976. This may have reflected the ability of unpolluted systems to adjust to natural variations or have been an indication that there were offsetting statewide gains in pollution control in 1976 or that uncharacterized, broad-based phenomena were operating in stream ecology, or that combinations of these were in effect.Based on presentations before the American Water Resources Assocition, Illinois Section, Chicago, Illinois, June 10–11, 1977.     

A Regional‐Scale Habitat Suitability Model to Assess the Effects of Flow Reduction on Fish Assemblages in Michigan Streams1

Zorn, Troy G., Paul W. Seelbach, and Edward S. Rutherford, 2012. A Regional‐Scale Habitat Suitability Model to Assess the Effects of Flow Reduction on Fish Assemblages in Michigan Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 871‐895. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00656.x Abstract: In response to concerns over increased use and potential diversion of Michigan’s freshwater resources, and the resulting state legislative mandate, an advisory council created an integrated assessment model to determine the potential for water withdrawals to cause an adverse resource impact to fish assemblages in Michigan’s streams. As part of this effort, we developed a model to predict how fish assemblages characteristic of different stream types would change in response to decreased stream base flows. We describe model development and use in this case study. The model uses habitat suitability information (i.e., catchment size, base‐flow yield, and July mean water temperature) for over 40 fish species to predict assemblage structure in an individual river segment under a range of base‐flow reductions. By synthesizing model runs for individual fish species at representative segments for each of Michigan’s 11 ecological stream types, we developed curves describing how typical fish assemblages in each type respond to flow reduction. Each stream type‐specific, fish response curve was used to identify streamflow reduction levels resulting in adverse resource impacts to characteristic fish populations, the regulatory standard. Used together with a statewide map of stream types, our model provided a spatially comprehensive framework for evaluating impacts of flow withdrawals on biotic communities across a diverse regional landscape.     

Modeling the Relations Between Flow Regime Components,Species Traits,and Spawning Success of Fishes in Warmwater Streams

Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management.     

AFTER THE 1993 FLOOD: A WATER AND SURFICIAL BED SEDIMENT QUALITY SCENARIO ON THE ILLINOIS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RWERS1

ABSTRACT: Effects of the 1993 flood on river water and sediment quality were investigated using historical data and data collected from the Illinois River and Upper Mississippi River in a post‐flood period. Overall the post‐flood results showed systematic reductions and individual changes in the water and sediment constituents. The reductions in sediment metals and nutrients were most obvious at the Keokuk and Lock and Dam 26 stations. By analyzing and comparing the physical changes to the changes in water and sediment constituents at each station, it was found that physical processes such as sediment entrainment and, more importantly, the removal of fine sediment to be the main causes for the reduced concentrations in sediment constituents. On the other hand, sediment redistribution and associated secondary contamination could have caused the emergence of several water and sediment constituents that were undetected before the flood.     

Impingement of threadfin shad: Effects of temperature and hydrography

A model is presented that allows testing of hypotheses concerning the effects of temperature and change in temperature on impingement. The model is evaluated using data from the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Steam Plant, Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee, USA for two fish species impinged in large numbers in the United States: threadfin and gizzard shad,Dorosoma petenense andD. cepedianum. Hydrographic characteristics near the intake screens were mapped to help explain the possible role of hydrography in distributing fish across the screens. Understanding the role of temperature and hydrography in impingement of fish provides a basis for new intake designs that may reduce impingement and helps in the development of methods to reduce impingement at existing facilities. The temperature modeling approach and conclusions about hydrographic effects might be applied to other systems in which cold-stressed schooling fish are impinged.Research sponsored by the Office of Health and Environmental Research, US Department of Energy, under contract W-7405-eng-26 with Union Carbide Corporation.Publication No. 1872, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

LONGITUDINAL SUCCESSION IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF RIVER SYSTEM FISH COMMUNITIES1

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal succession indicates that diversity and species richiess of fish communities increases with increasing river size (increasing habitat complexity and environmental stability). Cultural impacts tend to decrease diversity, species richness, and evenness. To assess the impacts of cultural events on the fish community of a river system, the bias caused by longitudinal succession was removed by normalizing diversity indices and species richness values for river size. The relationships between an impact index and the community parameters of evenness, normalized diversity, and normalized species richness were determined by regression analysis. Similar relationships were determined using nonnormalized data, and the results compared. The two sets of regressions were similar in terms of variance explained. Evenness, which is unaffected by longitudinal sucession, appears to be the most impact sensitive parameter. A major source of error and confusion rsults from introduced species which are simultaneously sources of biological impact and a component of the community. Numbers of introduced species tend to increase with both impact and river size.     

大渡河流域电站建设对保护鱼类的影响及对策措施研究

为弄清大渡河流域电站建设对虎嘉鱼等5种保护鱼类的影响情况,探索适宜的保护措施,在流域枯水和丰水期分别选择了电站建设上下游6个有代表性的断面采集水样,采用电感耦合等离子发射光谱法等方法测定了重金属元素等16个指标,用单因子和综合指数评价法对电站上下游水质进行了对比评价;采用实地调查的方法调查了5种保护鱼类在近10年间种群数量的变化趋势。结果表明：电站建设对水质综合影响指数在1．64—1．82之间,影响严重;5种保护鱼类种群数量近10年间急剧下降,目前已为未见或罕见。     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF VARIABLE ANNUAL FLOW ON RIVER CHANNEL MEANDER MIGRATION PATTERNS,SACRAMENTO RIVER,CALIFORNIA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Flow regulation impacts the ecology of major rivers in various ways, including altering river channel migration patterns. Many current meander migration models employ a constant annual flow or dominant discharge value. To assess how flow regulation alters river function, variable annual flows ‐ based on an empirical relationship between bank erosion rates and cumulative effective stream power ‐ were added into an existing migration model. This enhanced model was used to evaluate the potential geomorphic and ecological consequences of four regulated flow scenarios (i.e., different hydrographs) currently being proposed on the Sacramento River in California. The observed rate of land reworked correlated significantly with observed cumulative effective stream power during seven time increments from 1956 to 1975 (r²= 0.74, p = 0.02). The river was observed to rework 3.0 ha/yr of land (a mean channel migration rate of 7.7 m/yr) with rates ranging from 0.8 ha/yr to 5.1 ha/yr (2.0 to 13.3 m/yr), during the analyzed time periods. Modeled rates of land reworked correlated significantly with observed rates of land reworked for the variable flow model (r²= 0.78, p = 0.009). The meander migration scenario modeling predicted a difference of 1 to 8 percent between the four flow management scenarios and the base scenario.     

Soil and water characteristics of a young surface mine wetland

Coal companies are reluctant to include wetland development in reclamation plans partly due to a lack of information on the resulting characteristics of such sites. It is easier for coal companies to recreate terrestrial habitats than to attempt experimental methods and possibly face significant regulatory disapproval. Therefore, we studied a young (10 years) wetland on a reclaimed surface coal mine in southern Illinois so as to ascertain soil and water characteristics such that the site might serve as a model for wetland development on surface mines. Water pH was not measured because of equipment problems, but evidence (plant life, fish, herpetofauna) suggests suitable pH levels. Other water parameters (conductivity, salinity, alkalinity, chloride, copper, total hardness, iron, manganese, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, and sulfate) were measured, and only copper was seen in potentially high concentrations (but with no obvious toxic effects). Soil variables measured included pH, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, potassium, calcium, magnesium, manganese, aluminum, iron, sulfate, chloride, and percent organic matter. Soils were slightly alkaline and most parameters fell within levels reported for other studies on both natural and manmade wetlands. Aluminum was high, but this might be indicative more of large amounts complexed with soils and therefore unavailable, than amounts actually accessible to plants. Organic matter was moderate, somewhat surprising given the age of the system.     

EFFECTS OF LIME-SLUDGE DISCHARGE ON AN ARCTIC RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Fairbanks Water Treatment Plant in Fairbanks, Alaska, processes approximately 3 MGD of drinking water using lime softening. Approximately 0.3 MGD of lime-sludge from the treatment process is combined with effluent from a nearby power plant and discharged to the Chena River. There is little information available on the impact of water-treatment sludge discharges, and virtually no information on the impacts of such discharges in polar environments. Concern surrounding the discharge of water treatment sludges have centered on alum-sludge due to the potential toxic effects of aluminum. Because of the relatively benign composition of lime-sludge, very little research has been published. However, there is the possibility that discharge of solids will result in sedimentation, accumulation of solids, and subsequent impacts on benthic organisms. This paper reports on the results of a study to determine if lime-sludge discharge from the water treatment plant is adversely impacting the river environment. The results provide basic information on the important variables of concern in lime-discharges to rivers. Samples from the discharge of the water treatment plant and combined water treatment plant/power plant effluent were collected weekly over a one-year period, and in-stream benthic and water column samples were collected biweekly during the fall and spring. Sediment and water quality data indicate that while significant accumulation of sludge solids is found downstream of the water treatment plant outfall, they are flushed out of the system by spring flows, which are significantly increased by snow melt. This process is most likely repeated on a yearly cycle. Hence, the data suggest that the FMUS water treatment plant's discharge of lime-sludge is probably not adversely impacting the river. More generally, this may indicate that the natural flow variations and sediment-laden characteristics of Arctic, glacier-fed rivers may assimilate large quantities of nonputrescible solids without significant changes in the natural river environment. Further research in this area is required to verify this conclusion.     

Hybrid input-output analysis to evaluate economic impacts of biomass energy

ABSTRACT

The introduction of the new biomass industry exerts influences that change the interactions among economic sectors by drawing the resources for generating electricity, pricing alterations from the existing market and competitively selling electricity to the power grid. These influences should be described and identified to ensure the benefits to the local economy. In this article, we deem to test the potential of hybrid I-O analysis to analyze the economic impacts and address the change in characteristics of the economic impacts of the biomass power plant. The resource utilization data from the existing biomass power plant located in Kochi Prefecture (Japan) is collected and then analyzed by a hybrid input-output (I-O) analysis. We found that (1) the use of cutoff function could determine the new economy’s structure included the biomass power plant where the allocation of resource in the economy is changed according to the consumption and production of the biomass power plant, (2) The power plant increases the total production of Kochi prefecture’s economy, and this benefit overthrows the negative effect of the loss of resource demand of the existing economic sectors. The use of the hybrid I-O to forecast the economic impacts on the local economy could enhance the decision made by the policymaker.     

Linking Excess Nutrients,Light, and Fine Bedded Sediments to Impacts on Faunal Assemblages in Headwater Agricultural Streams1

Griffith, Michael B., F. Bernard Daniel, Matthew A. Morrison, Michael E. Troyer, James M. Lazorchak, and Joseph P. Schubauer‐Berigan, 2009. Linking Excess Nutrients, Light, and Fine Bedded Sediments to Impacts on Faunal Assemblages in Headwater Agricultural Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1475‐1492. Abstract: Biological impairments in streams are typically defined by regulatory agencies in terms of altered invertebrate or fish assemblages. While nutrients, canopy cover, and sediment fines contribute to these impairments, these stressors are often defined, at least in part, by their impacts on periphyton. Path analysis can extend these assessments to impacts on invertebrates and fish by characterizing the direct and indirect relationships among variables along defined model pathways. With data from headwater tributaries in the Little Miami River, Ohio, we tested models of the impacts of nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and the nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratio], the percentage of (%) open canopy, and the % sand and fines on three periphyton metrics [periphytic ash‐free dry mass (AFDM), the percent abundance of cyanobacteria (% cyanobacteria), and the percent abundance of Chlorophyta (% Chlorophyta)] and, in turn, on selected invertebrate or fish metrics. Our objective was to develop and evaluate a statistical model that assesses the direct and indirect impacts of excess nutrients on macroinvertebrate and fish in these streams and demonstrate how this approach might be applicable elsewhere. The results suggest indirect pathways for the influences of nutrients, canopy cover, and fine bedded sediments on invertebrates or fish that are mediated by their influences on periphyton. This is in addition to any direct impacts of these stressors on the invertebrate and fish metrics. In most models, all three periphyton metrics increased with % open canopy. Periphytic AFDM increased with TN, while % cyanobacteria decreased. The % cyanobacteria also decreased with % sand and fines, but % Chlorophyta increased. The metrics, percent abundance of (%) three most dominant (macroinvertebrate) taxa, % Trichoptera, and % herbivorous fish all increased with periphytic AFDM, while % climbers, % swimmers, and %Lepomis cyanellus Rafinesque decreased. Lepomis cyanellus is an indicator species, because it is generally common in these streams and relatively tolerant to various common environmental stressors. The % three most dominant macroinvertebrate taxa increased while % Hydropsychidae (Trichoptera) and %L. cyanellus decreased with % cyanobacteria. The % Trichoptera and %L. cyanellus increased with % Chlorophyta. Some macroinvertebrate metrics, such as the % burrowers and number of burrower taxa, did not have any statistically significant relationships with the periphyton metrics but did exhibit a direct pathway with % sand and fines. These analyses illustrate how path analysis can be used to estimate the relationships among the variables in a conceptual model, modify the model, assess the relative importance of different paths, and explore responses resulting from stressors with interacting and indirect impacts.     

ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.