建设项目的社会成本研究

随着大型建设项目的增多和人们环保意识与可持续发展意识的逐渐增强,关注建设项目对社会、环境等的影响已势在必行。基于这一认识,首先在分析建设项目对交通、经济、环境以及社会等方面造成负面影响的基础上,尝试构建建设项目社会成本体系,进而详细分析该体系中每个单项成本的内涵。然后。改变现有建设项目成本估算中只考虑建造成本的现状。将社会成本纳入到建设项目总成本之中,使建设项目总成本的内容更加科学、完善。最后,研究建设项目社会成本以及总成本的估算方法,并给出每种估算方法的适用范圈。为建设项目的社会成本评估提供一个相对完整、具体的框架,也为建设项目的发展提供了一个全新的思路。     

葛洲坝水利工程对长江中游生态水文特征的影响

为了满足人类社会经济发展要求而修建的水利工程,不可避免地对生态环境造成了巨大影响。从生态水文学角度对长江中游的生态水文特征进行了研究。借鉴国外已有的研究成果,建立了一套指标体系包括长期指标、高流量指标、低流量指标、平均变化指标、涨水落水指标和月流量指标,通过分析指标的变化来评价水利水电工程对生态环境的影响。长江中游是最重要的家鱼自然繁殖区,利用建立的指标体系量化并分析了葛洲坝建坝前后长江中游的生态水文特征变化。分析认为,葛洲坝的修建主要影响涨水落水,对其它生态水文特征影响不大;对于鱼类,涨水过程是刺激鱼类产卵的必要条件,葛洲坝的修建对鱼类产卵造成了一定影响。     

防洪整治工程对白暨豚和江豚的影响分析

自1998年大洪水后,为了保障人民生命财产的安全,水利部门正在规划一系列长江中下游防洪整治工程,根据工程规划方案,结合白暨豚和江豚群目前的现状,综合分析了部分规划中的防洪工程对白暨豚九江豚的影响,主要包括两个方面,一是施工期间的影响,二是工程结束后对环境的改变而带来的影响,经分析认为,有些工程,如洲湾裁弯取直工程、鄱阳湖建闸控制工程将对白暨豚和江豚产生巨大不利影响,建议在近期内不考虑实施,另一些工程如在施工期间和完工后采取积极、有效的保护措施,从白暨肜和江豚保护的角度分析是可行的。     

防洪整治工程对白鱀豚和江豚的影响分析

自 1998年大洪水后 ,为了保障人民生命财产的安全 ,水利部门正在规划一系列长江中下游防洪整治工程。根据工程规划方案 ,结合白豚和江豚种群目前的现状 ,综合分析了部分规划中的防洪工程对白豚和江豚的影响。主要包括两个方面 ,一是施工期间的影响 ,二是工程结束后对环境的改变而带来的影响。经分析认为 ,有些工程 ,如洲湾裁弯取直工程、鄱阳湖建闸控制工程将对白豚和江豚产生巨大不利影响 ,建议在近期内不考虑实施。另一些工程如在施工期间和完工后采取积极、有效的保护措施 ,从白豚和江豚保护的角度分析是可行的。     

The impacts of local farming system development trajectories on greenhouse gas emissions in the northern mountains of Vietnam

The northern mountain region of Vietnam (NMR) is dominated by swidden/fallow farming systems. The fallow land of these systems is populated by small trees and bushes. Since the 1960s the government of Vietnam has tried to limit or stop swiddening and replace it with permanent upland agricultural fields, paddy, fruit trees and animal husbandry. Discussion in the policy debate and literature focuses on the impacts these changes have on local people’s livelihoods. There have been no attempts to evaluate the impact of these changes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the realities of current farming system changes taking place at the hamlet level and other changes that could take place due to government land use policies and extension programs. The paper answers the following questions: How could farming system changes influence net GHGs? Which farming system changes in the NMR, the trajectories of changes that are currently observed or those that would be followed if farmers adhere strictly to government policies and programs, will have a greater affect on the GHG contributions from agriculture in the region? Could ‘clean development mechanism’ (CDM) projects make a difference in the profitability of the pathways mentioned? Results show: (1) if farming systems in the NMR continue along currently observed change trajectories there will be increases in GHG emissions; (2) if the NMR farming systems change according to government policies and programs there will be a net sequestration of carbon in regrowing vegetation during the initial 20 years; (3) over the longer term, in areas where systems change to fit government policies, increased GHG emissions from other changes in the farming systems (e.g. increased paddy and increased pig raising in sties) will overtake the amounts of carbon sequestered in vegetation; (4) CMD projects only make a difference if (a) maximum biomass potential of regrowing fallow can be reached; (b) a favourable baseline is chosen; (c) timing and length of the accounting period is correct; and (d) farmers do not take compensatory action in response to government policies. Given these conditions it does not appear that currently envisioned clean development mechanisms would be beneficial to farmers in the NMR.     

公共项目对经济增长的供给效应研究

近年来,政府在公共投资管理领域扮演的角色和发挥的功能正在发生变化,由过于追求项目的净收益到更加关注公共物品或服务所能产生的正的外部性的大小.所以,对公共项目特别是大型公共项目评价的方法、指标、标准开始转向加强从宏观视角的考察.公共项目投资对经济增长的促进作用表现为需求效应和供给效应两个方面.从我国目前的实际情况乃至未来若干年的情况来看,无论是道路交通等市政基础设施还是公共卫生、文教体育等社会基础设施都在不同程度上成为经济社会发展的"瓶颈",即处于长期的供不应求的状况,使其投资的供给效应对长期经济增长的提离推动作用是更为主要和显著.公共项目的供给效应是项目完成后,在长期的使用过程中逐次转移积累获得的经济效益,量化计算的理论基础是投入占用产出技术.该技术反映了国民经济这个开放的巨系统各部门产业之间的复杂联系,能够正确反映项目对长期经济增长带来的贡献,一般用感应度系数表示,数值越大表明对国民经济其他部门的推动能力越强.文章最后给出感应度系数计算模型和投资对GDP影响的计算模型.     

重大工程对血吸虫病流行区扩散的潜在影响

归纳了我国三峡工程、退田还湖及南水北调等一系列重大工程所引起水位、植被及微生物气候等生态环境要素变化对血吸虫唯一中间宿主钉螺分布的影响,分析了血吸虫病疫区的变化趋势和钉螺北移的可能性。研究表明三大工程实施区存在血吸虫病流行的潜在危险,加之我国新增有螺面积明显增多,血吸虫病疫情呈此消彼涨态势,血防工作形势依然严峻。当前国内有关工程对生态环境及血吸虫病影响的研究,主要为局部的调查报告及在现有基础上预测工程对血吸虫病流行的可能影响,生态环境变化还需要时间来验证。因此,建议应用GIS和RS等技术,监测分析生态环境变化,并进一步研究社会经济变动与血吸虫病传播的关系,同时,工程实施地区应提高疫区群众自我防护意识和能力,并结合林业、水利工程建设对有螺环境进行改造.     

Study on the investment value and investment opportunity of renewable energies under the carbon trading system

China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017. In the carbon trading system, the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction (CCER) trade. As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions, such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option, i.e. it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future. While making an investment decision, the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately, or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment; and for immediate investments, the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option. To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price, this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value (NPV) and real option value (ROV) of three types of renewable power projects; according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer, all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision. This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times, in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy, so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project. The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy, indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects. The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time, indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity. This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects, which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment. As the China’s carbon trading system improves gradually, the carbon price will reach a stable status, thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.     

碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究

中国承诺2017年启动全国性碳排放交易系统,在碳交易机制下,可再生能源项目可以通过CCER交易获得额外收益。由于碳价格是随着市场条件而随机波动的,碳价波动性使得可再生能源发电项目投资具有了期权性质的权利,即未来不确定性可能包含更高的价值。可再生能源企业在做投资决策时,可以选择立即投资,也可以选择推迟投资,等待更多信息来提高项目收益,而立即投资的项目回报必须足够高以克服等待期权的蕴含价值。为了研究碳价波动下可再生能源项目投资,本文采用实物期权法的三叉树模型,测算了三类可再生能源发电项目投资的npv及其实物期权价值(ROV)。根据延迟实物期权决策规则,三类项目均执行期权延迟投资决策。本文还计算了在无政府补贴和有政府补贴两种情形下,三种可再生能源项目在不同时点的栏杆价格,以确定项目的投资时机。栏杆价格随着政府补贴的增加而逐步下降,说明政府补贴会促进可再生能源项目投资;栏杆价格随着时间的推移而逐步上升,意味着时间跨度越大,不确定性越大,需要更高碳市场价格来确定投资时机。本文对影响可再生能源项目投资因素敏感性进行了分析,结果表明碳价波动率与可再生能源发电项目的栏杆价格呈现正相关的关系,说明碳价波动性增加了企业投资的期权价值,却推迟了企业开展投资的时间。随着中国碳交易体系的不断完善,碳价波动幅度会趋于平稳,从而促进发电企业进行可再生能源发电项目投资。     

A Comparative Study on the Implementation of CDM Projects in India

Since the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol was initiated,China and India have overwhelmingly led other developing countries regarding CDM projects development.A comparative study of the CDM in India and China is conducted as there are many similarities between both India and China with regard to the CDM implementation due to the fact that India is another major developing country with a large population and a potential source of GHG emissions rivaling China in the near future.Through examining the development of and legal issues for CDM projects in India,its experience and lessons regarding developing and managing CDM projects that China can critically learn are discussed.     

Gatekeepers of island communities: exploring the pillars of sustainable development

Sustainable development (SD) is generally recognised as having three dimensions, ecological, economic and social. Yet, its implementation is burdened with resistance and conflict rooted in the short-term ‘business as usual’ development model, opposed to the long-term sustainable benefit of local communities. Hence, the development of strategies to implement SD projects may require further differentiation of these dimensions in relation to the contextual situation in which the project resides. In two studies of SD projects on the Croatian islands, we identify five interlocking spheres of importance, Spiritual, Political, Economic, Educational and Health, in addition to Ecological. Each of these spheres is accessible through gate-keepers, individuals or a group of people who have the authority over the sector and as such, significantly influence public opinion. We suggest that in this particular island context the sustainability of these projects may lie with those gate-keepers. Hence, initiating and maintaining SD projects in these contexts requires a structured and targeted lobbying of these gate-keepers.     

A review of research on the environmental impact of e-business and ICT

This paper attempts to provide a review of the current state of the art of how e-business/ICT affects the environment. The work reviewed is in various forms including journal papers and thesis which have been peer-reviewed, as well as other resources such as projects and project reports, conference and symposia, and websites. It is claimed that the research examined has captured the most important work to date, either for a general knowledge of this new area or for background study by experts carrying out future research. The review has found that the currently dominant approach is either a micro-level case study approach or a macro-level statistical approach. It is concluded that a more predictive and empirical model, which can be applied within a sector of society, should be more beneficial in the long term. This approach should help simulate potential impacts resulting from changes of indicators, so that positive effects can be promoted and negative ones alleviated proactively, rather than knowing and accepting outcomes passively.     

Contribution to the characterisation of eco-design projects

Lots of eco-designed projects were carried out successfully, and eco-designed products are now on the market. However, it is very difficult for designers and engineers to compare their design projects to those already done and consequently to reuse the knowledge gained. In a more general perspective, a method to take advantage of previous experiences in eco-design is needed. This paper is a contribution to develop a standard for eco-design practices and proposes a framework to characterise both eco-design projects and eco-tools. Forty case studies from the literature were exploited to extract criteria and options to define the framework. The proposed usage-oriented classification of eco-tools, associated with the practical analysis frame of the design projects, was implemented and finally robust enough to characterise 40 projects.     

Is the Clean Development Mechanism delivering benefits to the poorest communities in the developing world? A critical evaluation and proposals for reform

This paper explores whether the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a flexibility mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, has contributed to poverty alleviation in countries that host CDM projects. We argue that the CDM should deliver pro-poor benefits to the communities in which projects are established, since poverty alleviation is integral to sustainable development, which is one of the main purposes of the CDM. After briefly discussing the background of the CDM, we discuss assessment difficulties to which research is prone when evaluating CDM projects for alleged sustainable development contributions. Section 4 brings together and analyses available empirical research on the pro-poor benefits the CDM purportedly delivers to host country communities, concluding that the CDM has failed to deliver poverty alleviation. Therefore, without attempting to be exhaustive, we suggest policy reforms that aim to redirect the CDM to those most in need of assistance.     

基于环境同位素的鄱阳湖与长江关系变化解析

在气候变化和三峡工程调节的双重影响下,长江中下游通江湖泊江湖关系发生显著改变,而最大的通江湖泊—鄱阳湖—水情的变化及其引发的一系列生态和环境问题受到了高度重视和关注。为了揭示不同时期鄱阳湖与长江间的江湖关系,并初步分析三峡运行对鄱阳湖水情的影响,通过对鄱阳湖北部通江水道湖水、降水和九江段长江干流水同位素特征进行调查并探讨长江水与湖水同位素联系。结果表明:湖水、降水和长江水中δ~(18)O和δ~2H值存在明显的季节和空间变化,可用于揭示湖泊与长江间的关系。在三峡调洪削峰期(7月)湖水δ~(18)O和δ~2H值明显要高于长江水,且湖水主要以外排形式补给长江为主,其比例达75%;在三峡蓄水期(10月)长江水位高于湖口水位,从鄱阳湖出口到老爷庙湖水与长江水同位素值具有较高的相似性,表明了此水域受长江水倒灌影响;而在三峡蓄水期(11和12月)湖水同位素值偏大说明了其受到一定较强的蒸发富集影响。三峡水库运行明显改变了长江水位和流量,进而影响了鄱阳湖与长江的补排关系,调洪削峰调度阶段,较高的长江水位对鄱阳湖存在一定的顶托作用,导致湖水难以排泄。因此,三峡水库的调度需要考虑到鄱阳湖流域水情,以免加重该流域丰水期的洪涝灾害和枯水期的水资源短缺。     

变化环境下洞庭湖换水特征演变分析

洞庭湖是长江中下游重要的吞吐型湖泊。换水频率和换水量等换水特征是其水文条件的重要表征。下垫面条件变化、水利工程的建设运行等,很大程度上影响了湖泊地形和来水条件等,使洞庭湖换水特征发生很大变化。研究1960s以来洞庭湖换水特征的历史演变,特别对三峡工程后换水量差值进行研究,有助于得到湖泊换水特性的历史演变特征,并对今后湖泊水量控制提供参考。分析了1961～2008年洞庭湖换水频率变化,1990s前换水频率的降低趋势一定程度上表征湖泊的自然衰退趋势,1990s后衰退趋势趋缓;而三峡蓄水运行后与90年代以来的换水量差值为14647亿m3,枯、丰水期分别为4834亿m3和9814亿m3     

中国工程外迁移民安置过程中的资源挖掘研究——以大丰市为个案

随着中国现代化进程的全面加速，因大型工程兴建导致的移民迁移安置成为缠绕中国经济社会发展的难解之题，如举世瞩目的三峡工程移民。在对江苏省三峡外迁农村移民安置点大丰市的个案调研基础上，着力探讨工程外迁农村移民社区安置过程中的资源挖掘问题。主要是（安置地）已有闲置住房、土地资源的利用，社会关系网络资源的重建。技能培训资源的开发，以及投资性资源的启动等。通过各种资源要素的有效挖掘和合理搭配，聚集全社会的力量和智慧。最终实现工程外迁农村移民的“落户生根”，缓解人类安居和大坝建设彼此间的紧张矛盾。为今后的工程外迁移民安置积累宝贵经验和提供某些先导示范作用。     

Temporal-spatial Characteristics of the Urbanization of Rural Land in Xinjiang

Relying on remote sensor technology, GIS and Land-sat TM digital images, the authors use spatial and statistical analysis to examine the temporal-spatial characteristics of the change caused by urban Construction in Xinjiang＇s rural areas from the end of the 1980s to the end of the 1990s. The primary findings show the following： 1） The urban construction in rural areas has increased drastically. The expansion speed of urban land use has accelerated over the past decade. The sub-land use changes caused by the urbanization of rural are characterized by salient regional differentiation among the three main regions and among the 85 counties of Xinjiang. 2） The shift of land use is mostly characterized by cultivated land and grassland being used for urban and industrial projects. Moreover, this change of land use is characteristic of regional differences. 3） Factors of rural-urban construction land use changes in Xinjiang, are undoubtedly affected by natural environment, social, economic conditions, and to a larger degree by population growth, GDP development and industrial development.     

Economic analysis of biogas and compost projects in a palm oil mill with clean development mechanism in Malaysia

This article is a case study to compare the economic viabilities of biogas generation and compost projects in a palm oil mill in Malaysia with and without clean development mechanism (CDM). Biogas is captured from anaerobic ponds or digester tanks treating palm oil mill effluent (POME) and converted to green renewable electricity for grid connection, while compost is produced from the shredded empty fruit bunch and raw untreated POME. The both technologies were compared by considering the changes of the materials flow and energy balances. A palm oil mill with a capacity of 54?t fresh fruit bunch per hour has the potential to produce either 6.9?GWh of electricity from biogas or fertilizer equivalent to 488?t of nitrogen, 76?t of phosphorus and 1,065?t of potassium per year. The economic analysis for 10?years project term analysis indicated that CDM gave a significant impact and ensured economic viability for both projects with 25?% of internal rate of return (IRR), RM 12.39 million of net present value (NPV) and 3.5?years of payback period (PBP) for biogas project, whereas 31?% of IRR, RM 10.87 million of NPV and 2.9?years of PBP for compost project, respectively. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that the profitability of both projects will vary depending on the economic situation, such as electricity price which is based on the government policy, whereas compost price that depend on fertilizer market price with 43?% NPV change in 20?% range of fertilizer value.     

Experiences with restoration of inland freshwater wetlands in the Netherlands: lessons for science and policy-making

The past decade has seen important changes in the approach to water management issues in the Netherlands. Urban development, recreational demands, agriculture, nature conservation and other space demanding functions compete with water management objectives in their claims for space. An analysis of some recent water management projects illustrates that the implementation of the new water management approach is not always easy. Catchment-based multifunctional projects encounter major constraints. These constraints are: 1) national goals versus local constraints; 2) limited sense of urgency; 3) lack of institutional coordination in the water management community; 4) unclear views over nature conservation, and; 5) limited understanding of wetland functioning in relation to flood risk management. We promote platforms for collaborative planning as a way to improve stakeholder participation in early stages of decision-making. Negotiation and mediation support tools can enable stakeholders and mediators to formulate the problems that need to be addressed more effectively. Early involvement of stakeholders in the planning process is almost a condition for successful implementation; however, it is no guarantee of success, and not all conflicts can be solved. Therefore assessment of the costs and benefits of different parties is important for compensation schemes to gain broad social acceptance.