Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

The continuously growing global demands on a finite land resource will require better strategic policies and management of trade-offs to avoid conflicts between different land-use sectors. Visions of the future can support strategic planning by stimulating dialogue, building a consensus on shared priorities and providing long-term targets. We present a novel approach to elicit stakeholder visions of future desired land use, which was applied with a broad range of experts to develop cross-sectoral visions in Europe. The approach is based on (i) combination of software tools and facilitation techniques to stimulate engagement and creativity; (ii) methodical selection of stakeholders; (iii) use of land attributes to deconstruct the multifaceted sectoral visions into land-use changes that can be clustered into few cross-sectoral visions, and (iv) a rigorous iterative process. Three cross-sectoral visions of sustainable land use in Europe in 2040 emerged from applying the approach in participatory workshops involving experts in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, settlements, energy, and water. The three visions—Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local Multifunctional—shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided—EU-wide, regional or local—reflecting the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land-use planning.

     

Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Regional Environmental Change - Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such...     

Toward achieving a sustainable management: characterization of land use/land cover in Sokoto Rima floodplain,Nigeria

Land use change is the main driving force of global environmental change and is considered as very central to the ongoing debate on sustainable development. Even though large volume of literature materials is available of land use/land cover (LU/LC) change for many areas, very little is known of it in the floodplain of the Sokoto Rima River Basin of Nigeria despite the basin’s strategic importance. Thus, this study characterized the basin’s LU/LC and its change using computer-based digital classification of near-anniversary Landsat 5 TM imagery of November 23, 1998, and Landsat 8 OLI of December 2, 2013. The results of the digital classification were complimented with field-based observations on major observable characteristics of every LU/LC identified. Thirteen classes (forest area, dense grassland, grassy fallow, grazed open grassland, open cultivation, open grain fallow farmland, pepper cultivation, rice farmland, scrubland, sugarcane farmland, dry bare land, sand deposit and wetland/water) were characterized and the nature and extent of their changes assessed. 40 % of the basin’s uses is under cultivation, 22 % is under fallow, 27 % is either degraded or non-cultivable, while 11 % is forested. Change events include forest loss, increase in area cultivated, expansion of shrub/scrubland and pervasiveness of grazing. The changes were more pronounced in the upper than either the central and southern segments of the basin. In general LU/LC changes in the basin are reflection of increased human population pressure and effects of climate change. The LU/LC patterns and changes suggest underutilization and mismanagement of the floodplain which have impact on soil, hydrology and biodiversity with serious implication for livelihood and food security. The study recommends that interventions are needed to promote enhanced and sustainable management of land, water and vegetation resources in the basin, with particular emphasis on empowering the local land users to participate actively toward sustainable management of the floodplain.     

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO₂ in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.     

Towards an integrated framework for sustainable innovation

Sustainable innovation represents a current challenge for companies, as firms need to change the way they design, develop, produce and distribute products and services. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework to be used as a reference guideline for organisations to define a roadmap, specific actions and projects to achieve sustainable innovation, integrating four key enablers. The first enabler is mass customisation (MC), which targets the identification and compliance with customers' specific needs and requirements in order to achieve customer‐driven design. At the same time, the sustainable development (SD) paradigm is taken into consideration, where for any new product or service, companies analyse the benefits, risks and impacts of not only economic factors, but also social and environmental implications. The third enabler is linked to the value network (VN), where innovations happen owing to the active collaboration and distributed knowledge of partners inside and outside the company. Finally, the fourth and last considers the complete product and service life cycle (PSLC), where the three sustainable elements are identified and analysed in each single business process. Two case studies, (footwear sector and water treatment plants) are described to show the validity and successful deployment of the proposed framework in real industrial scenarios.     

Towards adequately framing sustainability goals in research projects: the case of land use studies

Sustainability-oriented undertakings employ a multitude of different definitions and understandings of the term sustainable development. Against this background, the question of which sustainability goals to refer to at project level must be posed. This article discusses this question using the example of research on land use issues. It presents a qualitative in-depth empirical analysis of the underlying sustainability understanding of research projects, and identifies crucial characteristics of the ways researchers deal with the respective normative goals. The notions of sustainable development advanced by such projects featured different foci with respect to the overall meaning of the concept and were influenced by diverse actor and stakeholder perspectives. Further, the identified sustainability conceptions were deliberated on to different extents, and also differed with respect to whether they were explicit or contextualized. Most importantly, the projects differed in how they broached the issue of sustainability goals as part of research. The findings were used to develop a set of guidelines that clarifies how research can be related successfully to the societal vision of sustainable development. The guidelines draw conceptually on general requirements for appropriate sustainability conceptions derived from the Brundtland definition. They offer a tool for reflecting on one’s assumptions with respect to sustainability goals at any stage of research, which is crucial for advancing the seminal field of sustainability science.     

Changing land use/cover patterns and implications for sustainable environmental management in the Irangi Hills,central Tanzania

This article examines the changes in land-use/cover types in the Irangi Hills, central Tanzania during the last 45 years and how such changes have influenced environmental and agricultural sustainability in the area. The spatial and temporal changes of land-use/cover were analysed through aerial photographs interpretation. Local perceptions and experiences of changes were addressed through household interviews and field observations. Results from this study show that during the last 45 years open and wooded grasslands, and other tree-cover types covered about 40% of the land area, ranging from 29% in 1960 to 43–45% between 1977 and 1992. Also, during the same period both the total area and spatial distribution of cultivated fields varied greatly. The cultivated area increased from 31% in 1977 to 35% in 1992, mainly due to agricultural expansion into areas formerly used for grazing and in sandy watercourses that shrunk by 55% between 1977 and 1992. The spatial distribution of the different land-use/cover types is influenced by variations in the scale of soil erosion and soil-conservation initiatives implemented in the Irangi Hills since the early 1970s. However, with increasing pressure on the land, and the declining capacity of the soil conservation authority, sustaining agricultural production in the area remains a major challenge.     

Scenario analysis for regional decision-making on sustainable multifunctional land uses

Land-use patterns are influenced by both top-down and bottom-up (local) factors, with their interactions varying in both space and time. This provides a major challenge to decision-making for sustainable multifunctional landscapes. A cross-scale scenario structure has been developed to integrate top-down and bottom-up context based upon the familiar IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios framework. Qualitative scenario storylines are converted into multiple quantified simulations of regional land-use change using a series of rules, with information translated across scales using a hierarchical land-use classification. Land-use parcels (fields) are used as key landscape reference units representing the local dimension of regional changes. Biophysical limitations on land use are represented through land capability classes (climate, soils and topography). Socio-economic factors are characterised in reference to global drivers, policy targets or local preferences. A flexible stochastic software tool (LandSFACTS) ensures spatiotemporal coherence of land-use allocation simulations consistent with scenario storylines. Scenario development is designed to be interactive, bridging ‘problem-focussed’ and ‘actor-focussed’ approaches. A case study is presented from NE Scotland, where plans to enhance multifunctionality through new woodland are evaluated against drivers of globalisation and climate change. Competing priorities, such as food security, mean that in some scenarios, a policy objective for woodland expansion to occur on farmland cannot be met. Woodland expansion would then have to occur on uncultivated upland areas. Scenario analysis has highlighted specific sensitivity to change in ‘marginal’ agricultural areas, with the varying influence of different top-down or bottom-up factors leading to divergent potential outcomes.     

Grazing,forest density,and carbon storage: towards a more sustainable land use in Caatinga dry forests of Brazil

Grazing is the main land use in semi-arid regions of the world, and sustainable management practices are urgently needed to prevent their degradation. However, how different grazing intensities affect forest density and ecosystem functions is often not sufficiently understood to allow for management adaptations that safeguard the ecosystems and their functions in the long run. We assessed the aboveground carbon stocks and plant densities along a grazing gradient in the semi-arid seasonally dry tropical forest of north-eastern Brazil (Caatinga). On 45 study plots, we analysed the aboveground carbon stocks of the vegetation and determined forest density and recruitment as well as the population structure of the most abundant tree species. Grazing intensity was accounted for based on the weight of livestock droppings and classified as low, intermediate, or high. Mean aboveground carbon stock was 15.74?±?1.92 Mg ha^?1 with trees and shrubs accounting for 89% of the total amount. Grazing at high intensities significantly reduced aboveground carbon stocks of herbs but not of other plant functional types. Instead, aboveground carbon stocks of trees and shrubs were negatively related to altitude above sea level, which is a proxy for reduced water availability along with lower anthropogenic impact. The population structure of the most common tree species was characterised by abundant recruitment, irrespective of grazing, whereas the recruitment of less frequent woody species was negatively affected by grazing. Overall, our data imply that grazing and forage management need to be adapted, including the reduction of free-roaming livestock and storage of fodder, to maintain carbon storage and forest density.     

Social network ties predict land use diversity and land use change: a case study in Ghana

Regional Environmental Change - While it is well documented that informal social ties play a role in information exchange on land management practices, the structural features of such networks that...     

Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe

Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.

Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Regional Environmental Change - Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach...     

Fibre crops as alternative land use for radioactively contaminated arable land

The transfer of radiocaesium, one of the most important and widespread contaminants following a nuclear accident, to the fibre crops hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) and flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) as well as the distribution of radiocaesium during crop conversion were studied for sandy soil under greenhouse and lysimeters conditions. Soil parameters did not unequivoqually explain the transfer factors (TF) observed. TFs to flax stems ranged from 1.34 to 2.80x10(-3) m2 kg(-1). TFs to seeds are about a factor of 4 lower. During the retting process for separating the fibres from the straw, more than 95% of the activity was removed with the retting water. For hemp, the TF to the stem was about 0.6x10(-3) m2 kg(-1). For hemp, straw and fibres were mechanically separated and TF to straw was about 0.5x10(-3) m2 kg(-1) and to fibres 1.0x10(-3) m2 kg(-1). Generally, the TFs to the useable plant parts both for hemp and flax, are low enough to allow for the production of clean end-products (fibre, seed oil, biofuel) even on heavily contaminated land. Given the considerable decontamination during retting, contamination levels in flax fibres would only exceed the exemption limits for fibre use after production in extreme contamination scenarios (>12,300kBq m(-2)). Since hemp fibres are mechanically separated, use of hemp fibres is more restricted (contamination <740kBq m(-2)). Use of stems as biofuel is restricted to areas with contamination levels of <250 and 1050kBq m(-2) for flax and hemp, respectively. Use of seeds for edible oil production and flour is possible almost without restriction for flax but due to the high TFs to seed observed for hemp (up to 3x10(-3) m2 kg(-1)) consumption of hemp seed products should be considered with care.     

Towards implementation and achievement of sustainable biofuel development in Africa

Although sustainable bioenergy development in Africa is critically debated, if projects are developed within a credible framework, opportunities for sustainability arguably can arise. This paper presents research on the characteristics of sustainable biofuel projects as provided in the literature and according to expert opinions obtained by way of a survey involving thirty-eight international experts. Participants were selected for their expertise in the fields of environmental, social and economic sustainability relating to biofuels in Africa. The survey results suggest that projects which display a high degree of transparency, incorporate local stakeholder involvement, and ideally include local villagers as partners are more likely to achieve sustainable biofuel production. Experts also indicated that reconciling diverse stakeholder objectives alongside the principles of sustainable development remains an ongoing challenge. A process is recommended for sustainable biofuel development, which attempts to harmonise efficiency, stakeholder interaction and the integration of diverse stakeholder perspectives. To support the process, it is recommended that an advisory/mediating body that acts according to best practice principles would be of great assistance. Such an advisory/mediating body would be conversant with local land, social, economic and environmental conditions, project sustainability and administration, and also advise on biofuel framework educational needs.     

Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe

Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.     

Agroforestry in the Western Ghats of peninsular India and the satoyama landscapes of Japan: a comparison of two sustainable land use systems

Agroforestry in the Western Ghats (WG) of peninsular India and satoyama in rural Japan are traditional land-use systems with similar evolutionary trajectories. Some of their relevance was lost by the middle of the twentieth century, when modern agricultural technologies and urbanisation engineered shifts in emphasis towards maximising crop production. There has been, however, a resurgence of interest in traditional land-use systems recently, in view of their ability to provide ecosystem services. Both agroforestry and satoyama are thought to be harbingers of biological diversity and have the potential to serve as “carbon forests.” Carbon (C) stock estimates of the sampled homegardens in WG ranged from 16 to 36 Mg ha⁻¹. Satoyama woodlands owing to variations in tree stocking and management conditions indicated widely varying C stocks (2–279 Mg ha⁻¹). Agroforestry and satoyama also differ in nature, complexity, and objectives. While agroforestry involves key productive and protective functions, and adopts ‘intensive management’, the satoyama woodlands are extensively managed; understorey production is seldom a consideration. Differences in canopy architecture (multi-tiered structure of agroforestry vs. the more or less unitary canopy of satoayama) and land ownership pattern (privately owned/managed agroforestry holdings vs. community or local government or privately owned and mostly abandoned satoyamas) pose other challenges in the transfer and application of knowledge gained in one system to the other. Nonetheless, lessons learnt from satoyama conservation may be suitable for common pool resource management elsewhere in Asia, and aspects relating to understorey production in agroforestry may be relevant for satoyama under certain scenarios.     

Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe

Regional Environmental Change - Assessments of land-system change have dominantly focused on conversions among broad land-use categories, whereas intensity changes within these categories have...     

The use of a Delphi consultation to explore the curriculum for sustainable development in engineering

Developing a curriculum for sustainable development for engineers, even on a small scale, is a complex task. The University of Manchester has been undertaking a pilot project for an experiential, student-centred approach across engineering and science disciplines, described elsewhere. But that pilot also provided a springboard for the study described in this article. Group techniques for resolving complex issues have been around for half a century but mostly applied to questions of forecasting. Of these, the Delphi technique seemed to best fit the curriculum issues that we wished to explore. This article sets out some of the background to the choice of the Delphi approach, the questions that we sought to answer, the responses that we obtained and some discussion of the appropriateness of the approach to other issues of sustainable development and curriculum design.