Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Regional Environmental Change - This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under...     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Climate change research in Bangladesh: research gaps and implications for adaptation-related decision-making

Regional Environmental Change - In this paper, we present the results of a systematic literature review of climate change vulnerability-related research conducted in Bangladesh between 1994 and...     

Climate change impacts,vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the electrical energy sector in Cyprus

The purpose of this study was to investigate the climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the electrical energy sector in Cyprus. Spatial vulnerability of the island was assessed using the degree-day indicator to investigate heating and cooling demands in the near future using daily temperature projections from regional climate models (RCMs). Using daily electrical energy consumption data for the present climate, an impact model linking consumption and temperature was constructed and this relationship was projected to the future climate using the data from the RCMs and assuming the same technology use. Our impact model results showed that for the period between November and April (‘cold period’), a decreasing trend in electrical energy consumption is evident due to warmer conditions in the near future, while for the period between May and October (‘warm period’), an increasing trend in electricity consumption is evident as warmer conditions dominate by 2050. Regarding the spatial vulnerability assessment, the cooling degree-day indicator testified that major increases in cooling demand, between 100 and 200 degree-days, are expected in inland and southern regions during the summer in the near future. In addition, increases of about 20–50 degree-days are anticipated during autumn. Conversely, energy demand for heating is projected to decrease during spring and winter, especially in the higher elevation parts of the island. More precisely, reductions of about 30–75 degree-days are projected during spring, while greater reductions of about 60–90 degree-days are expected during winter in heating demand, especially for in the near future. The ability of the energy sector to adapt and follow these changes was deemed to be satisfactory reducing the overall vulnerability of the sector to future climate change.     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

This contribution presents an assessment of the potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and change (CV & C) of the critical transportation infrastructure of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on potential operational disruptions and coastal inundation forced by CV & C on four coastal international airports and four seaports in Jamaica and Saint Lucia which are critical facilitators of international connectivity and socioeconomic development. Impact assessments have been carried out under climatic conditions forced by a 1.5 °C specific warming level (SWL) above pre-industrial levels, as well as for different emission scenarios and time periods in the twenty-first century. Disruptions and increasing costs due to, e.g., more frequent exceedance of high temperature thresholds that could impede transport operations are predicted, even under the 1.5 °C SWL, advocated by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and reflected as an aspirational goal in the Paris Climate Agreement. Dynamic modeling of the coastal inundation under different return periods of projected extreme sea levels (ESLs) indicates that the examined airports and seaports will face increasing coastal inundation during the century. Inundation is projected for the airport runways of some of the examined international airports and most of the seaports, even from the 100-year extreme sea level under 1.5 °C SWL. In the absence of effective technical adaptation measures, both operational disruptions and coastal inundation are projected to increasingly affect all examined assets over the course of the century.     

Climate change impacts on rainfed cropping production systems in the tropics and the case of smallholder farms in North-west Cambodia

The consequences of climate change on smallholder farms are locally specific and difficult to quantify because of variations in farming systems, complexity of agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood activities and climate-related vulnerability. One way to better understand the issues is to learn from the experiences of farmers themselves. Thus, this study aimed to better understand rainfed upland cropping systems in NW Cambodia and to identify practical, social and economic constraints to adoption of known climate adaptation options applicable to local agro-ecosystems. The study also sought to document the climate change perceptions and adaptation options employed by farmers to mitigate the climate risks. A household survey was conducted in the districts of Sala Krau and Samlout in North-west Cambodia in 2013 where 390 representatives of households were randomly selected for interviews, group discussions and field observations. The majority of respondents perceived that changes had occurred in the rainfall pattern such as a later start to the monsoon season, decreasing annual rainfall, increasing frequencies of drought and dry spells, and warmer temperatures. Farmers reported reductions in crop yields of 16–27 % over the five-year period of 2008–2012. However, these reductions were not evident in provincial data for the same period. Farmers claimed climate impacts resulted in significant yield reductions, but they appear not to have an effective strategy to adapt to the changes in climate. Further regional research is required to refine climate change adaptation strategies for rainfed upland cropping systems in Cambodia.     

Climate change and temperature rise in the Greater Beirut Area: implications on heat-related premature mortality

This study attempts to quantify climate change-induced increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise with corresponding socioeconomic implications in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Future climatic conditions under four different emissions scenarios were considered to cover a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. During the first half of the twenty-first century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario which characterizes fossil fuel intensive development. By the year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3–15 %, depending on the scenario.     

Uranium isotopes in groundwater from the continental intercalaire aquifer in Algerian Tunisian Sahara (Northern Africa)

The disequilibrium between ²³⁴U and ²³⁸U is commonly used as a tracer of groundwater flow. This paper aims to identify uranium contents and uranium isotopic disequilibria variation in groundwater sampled from deep Continental Intercalaire aquifer (southern Algeria and Tunisia). Large variations in both U contents (0.006–3.39 ppb) and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios (0.4–15.38) are observed. We conduct a first assessment in order to verify whether the results of our investigation support and complete previous hydrogeological and isotopic studies. The dissolved U content and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio data were plotted on a two-dimensional diagram that was successfully utilized on sharing the CI aquifer into different compartments submitted to different oxidising/reducing conditions and leads also to distinguished two preferential flow paths in the Nefzaoua/Chott Fejej discharge area. Uranium isotopes disequilibrium indicate that ranium chemistry is mainly controlled by water–rock interaction enhanced by long residence time recognised for this aquifer.     

Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

Regional Environmental Change - The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid changes in anthropogenic activities but also by global climate change. Given the uncertainties of magnitude and...     

Climate change and migration in the Pacific: options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands

Regional Environmental Change - As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate....     

Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.     

Trials of different provenances of white birches (section Albae) in population cultures in the Middle Urals

Periodic monitoring (by age stages) of the growth energy and health of trees has been performed in population cultures of white birches established on a half-sib basis (for the first time in Russia). The results show that the pattern of growth and development and the health (survival) of provenances tested in population cultures depend primarily on the ecobiological properties of birch species and also on the distance and direction of seed transfer.     

Climate Change in Southern and Eastern Africa During the Past Millennium and its Implications for Societal Development

Climatic records from equatorial eastern Africa and subtropical southern Africa have shown that both temperature and the amount of rainfall have varied over the past millennium. Moreover, the rainfall pattern in these regions varied inversely over long periods of time. Droughts started abruptly, were of multi-decadal to multi-centennial length and the changes in the hydrological budget were of large amplitude. Changing water resources in semi-arid regions clearly must have regional influences on both ecological and socio-economic processes. Through a detailed analysis of the historical and paleoclimatic evidence from southern and eastern Africa covering the past millennium it is shown that, depending on the vulnerability of a society, climatic variability can have an immense impact on societies, sometimes positive and sometimes disastrous. Therefore, the interconnected issue of world ecosystem and social resilience is the challenge for decision-makers if sustainable development is to be reached on global and local levels.