Possible future trade-offs between agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity conservation in North Dakota

In this study, we describe a spatially explicit scenario analysis of global change effects on the potential future trade-offs and conflicts between agriculture, energy generation, and grassland and wetland conservation in North Dakota (ND), USA. Integrated scenarios combining global policy, oil security, and climate change were applied to North Dakota using a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell. Spatial data describing climate changes and grassland, wetland, cropland, and energy distributions were used to characterize the geographical environment. The final multi-criteria framework examined the potential trade-offs between climate change, agricultural expansion, and energy generation resulting from global change scenarios on one hand, and the current footprint of wetlands and grasslands for six regions of ND that capture the major climate gradients and differences in land use. The results suggest that the tension between regional climate changes that may limit agricultural expansion, and global changes in food and energy security and commodity prices that favor agricultural expansion, may focus a zone of potential pressure on grasslands and wetland conversion in central ND and the Prairie Pothole Region. The balance between conservation programs, commodity prices, and land parcel productivity may determine grassland conversion, while wetland outcomes may almost totally depend upon regional climate change.     

稻虾共作快速发展背景下潜江耕地时空变化特征分析

虾稻共作综合种养模式近年来在长江中下游地区快速发展,探索虾稻共作对农业土地利用的影响,对于科学调控虾稻田发展、确保粮食和生态双安全具有重要意义。该研究以虾稻共作模式发源地——湖北潜江市为研究区域,利用空间分析和破碎度指数方法,分析虾稻共作模式快速推广下潜江市农业土地利用时空格局变化。结果表明：（1）近20年来,耕地时空格局变化过程是以园林办事处（主城区）为中心的建设用地向西至广华镇、南至杨市镇不断扩张,耕地转为新增建设用地达28.64 km2,约18.59 km2耕地转换为水域;（2）耕地格局呈现破碎化,主要由城市发展过程中建设用地扩张占用耕地,以及虾稻田快速发展后造成;（3）虾稻田主要由水田转换而来,部分旱地及水域也转换为虾稻田。虾稻田的不断扩张,特别是旱地和水域转换为虾稻田,一定程度上带来耕地破碎化。因此,在我国农业劳动力不足、农民收入不高和种地积极性不强等因素下,未来虾稻田种植模式对耕地利用具有较好的潜力和空间,但也需要重点关注虾稻共作模式的可持续发展,重点基于水田发展虾稻田种养模式。     

典型经济快速发展区耕地变化区域分异研究

耕地变化的区域分异研究可为确保国家粮食安全和生态安全提供重要依据。基于RS和GIS技术,分析太湖流域1985~2015年耕地数量、质量和动态结构的时空演化格局。结果表明:近30a流域耕地呈现以城镇为中心面的边缘扩散和以乡镇为中心点的散布流失特征,导致耕地净减少了38.87%,其中环湖、沿江城市密集区及县域空间拓展区是耕地流失的热点区域。耕地集中连片分布区与经济发展快速区的空间复合导致耕地缩减与建设用地扩张呈现空间对应关系,建设占用始终是驱动耕地减少的主要因素。不同阶段受经济发展水平和农业政策影响,不同地类对耕地转移的贡献率和空间分布差异明显,且转移比例在数量和质量上均不对等。总体上,耕地变化呈现由缓慢零散占用到快速集聚流失的过程,耕地数量和质量变化高值和低值区亦表现由分散到集中的格局,最终驱动了耕地优势区由环湖平原区向西南丘陵区的空间转移。     

太湖流域粮食生产对耕地利用变化动态响应分析及预测

认识耕地利用与粮食生产的耦合作用规律是确保粮食安全和可持续发展的基础。基于模型模拟、GIS和多目标情景模拟等方法,在定量分析粮食生产对耕地利用变化动态响应基础上,分析流域粮食生产变化的关键驱动要素及粮食增产潜力,为流域耕地利用动态调控和粮食安全问题解决提供参考。结果表明:(1)1985～2015年流域耕地利用与粮食生产变化空间集聚性显著,耕地量变、耕地利用结构和方式变化幅度分别为39.2%、23.6%和19.3%,上述变化导致粮食减产44.1%;(2)1985～2015年耕地量变对流域粮食减产贡献率为50.7%,耕地利用方式变化和耕地量变则分别以43.4%和76.3%的贡献率成为前后15年粮食减产的主要驱动因素。集聚在流域北部56.8%的区域受耕地量变影响显著;太湖东南24.3%的区域和杭州-桐乡-嘉善一线等18.9%的区域分别受耕地利用方式和结构变化影响较大。随时间变化,耕地量变影响加剧,粮食减幅增加;(3)未来耕地数量持续减少,粮食安全压力较大,低-中-高方案变动下耕地量变影响范围缩小53.5%,耕地利用方式和结构影响区分别增加了2倍和1.25倍,粮食增产区由5.4%增加到54.1%。不同区域粮食生产对耕地利用变化响应的时空差异显著,未来响应变化敏感区将是流域粮食增产潜力区和耕地利用关键调控区。     

An integrative approach to modeling land-use changes: multiple facets of agriculture in the Upper Yangtze basin

Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. Still, much remains to be learned before scientists can fully assess future roles of land-use/cover changes (LUCC) in the functioning of the Earth system and identifying conditions for sustainable land use. The objective of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the complex interactions of human and natural drivers underlying LUCC. We do so by developing and estimating a novel structural model of land use and using spatially explicit longitudinal observations from the Upper Yangtze basin of China. Our analysis focuses on the multiple dimensions of agriculture—not only cropland use itself, but also grain production, soil erosion, and related technical change—and our data cover 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000. Our results show that technical change plays an important role in supplying food on a limited cropland; limiting cropland expansion in turn reduces soil erosion, which then benefits grain production in the longer term. It is also found that policies and institutions have significant impacts on land use and the status of soil erosion. Together, these results carry some great implications to sustainable land use and ecosystem management.     

Hydropower development in the lower Mekong basin: alternative approaches to deal with uncertainty

Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. As a means of comparing these trade-offs, a sensitivity analysis of the benefit-cost analysis of certain Basin Development Plan (BDP) scenarios was undertaken. By changing some key assumptions in the BDP about discount rates, the value of lost capture fisheries, future aquaculture production in the LMB, and the value of lost ecosystem services from wetlands to reflect the full range of uncertainty, at the extremes, there could be a reversal of the Net Present Value (NPV) estimates of the scenarios from a positive $33 billion to negative $274 billion. This report recommends when dealing with large-scale, complex projects: a more comprehensive, integrated human and natural systems framework and adaptive management approach to LMB planning and development that deals with the entire watershed; a more comprehensive analysis and treatment of risk and uncertainty; a more thorough assessment of the value of direct and indirect ecosystem services; a broader set of scenarios that embody alternative models of development, broader stakeholder participation; and better treatment of the effects of infrastructure construction on local cultures and the poor.     

Biodiversity provides ecosystem services: scientific results versus stakeholders’ knowledge

Exploiting the complementarities between biological components in agricultural systems is presented as a solution to increase food production and decrease environmental problems. This amounts to maximizing the ecosystem services (i.e., the benefits human obtain from ecosystems) provided by biodiversity at the expense of the disservices (i.e., the nuisances human obtain from ecosystems). In recent years, science has produced significant results supporting this strategy, but their application in the field is dependent on stakeholders’ knowledge. This article therefore addresses two questions: What do stakeholders know about the services and disservices provided by biodiversity? Does this knowledge agree with scientific results? We address these questions by combining a literature review of 39 scientific articles and interviews with 8 farmers and 3 farm advisors in France. Scientific results and stakeholders’ knowledge both indicate that within- and between-field plant biodiversity have a positive effect on the provision of ecosystem services. For instance, it can reduce inputs and give higher and more stable plant production. It may even improve farmers’ management conditions. However, our work revealed two gaps in our scientific knowledge. Only 3 scientific articles connected ecosystem services with plant biodiversity at the farm scale or between fields, while stakeholders did so for 43 % of the services they mentioned. Similarly, management services concerned about one-third of the services mentioned by stakeholders but were addressed in only 3 scientific articles. Stakeholders’ expertise can thus help us to prioritize research options in order to simultaneously fill scientific gaps and produce knowledge relevant to practice.     

武汉市生态系统服务功能对城市用地扩张的响应机理

针对当前生态系统服务功能对城市用地扩张过程响应机理研究的不足,以武汉市为例,定量计算区域重要生态系统服务功能价值,探究城市用地扩张过程对生态系统服务的影响机理。结果表明:(1)1990～2015年,除水文调节的价值在2000～2005年略有增长,其余生态系统服务功能价值均呈负增长,降幅最大的是食物供给;(2)人口增长带来的生态系统服务功能的需求压力远远大于城市用地扩张对生态系统服务的直接破坏;(3)城市用地扩张对食物供给的破坏程度最大,对水文调节能力的破坏程度次之,对生物多样性和土壤保持的破坏程度相对较低。武汉市在未来的城市用地扩张中,应禁止侵占水域和森林的面积,调整农田的侵占结构,提高建设用地集约利用水平。     

Ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: options to improve management in the Vez watershed,NW Portugal

Ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is a central aim of the European Union’s biodiversity strategy for 2020. Therefore, accurate modelling and mapping of ecosystem services as well as of biodiversity conservation value is an important asset in support of spatial planning and policy implementation. The objectives of this study were to analyse the provision of the multiple ecosystem services under two forestation scenarios (eucalyptus/pine vs. oak) at the watershed scale and to evaluate their possible trade-offs with the biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed, in northwest Portugal, was used as case study area, in which soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services, biomass and carbon storage services. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert judgement applied to a land cover map. Results indicated large provision of ecosystem services in the high and low mountain sub-basins. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and oak forest scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine forest scenario, which perform better for flood regulation and erosion control services, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. The current shrubland dominated cover also shows good performance for the control of soil erosion. The oak scenario is the one with less trade-offs between forest services and biodiversity conservation. Results highlight SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping ecosystem services generated at the watershed scale, thereby contributing to improve the options for land management.     

Climate change and food security: a Sri Lankan perspective

There is growing concern in Sri Lanka over the impact of climate change, variability and extreme weather events on food production, food security and livelihoods. The link between climate change and food security has been mostly explored in relation to impacts on crop production or food availability aspects of food security, with little focus on other key dimensions, namely food access and food utilization. This review, based on available literature, adopted a food system approach to gain a wider perspective on food security issues in Sri Lanka. It points to several climate-induced issues posing challenges for food security. These issues include declining agriculture productivity, food loss along supply chains, low livelihood resilience of the rural poor and prevalence of high levels of undernourishment and child malnutrition. Our review suggests that achieving food security necessitates action beyond building climate resilient food production systems to a holistic approach that is able to ensure climate resilience of the entire food system while addressing nutritional concerns arising from impacts of climate change. Therefore, there is a pressing need to work towards a climate-smart agriculture system that will address all dimensions of food security. With the exception of productivity of a few crop species, our review demonstrates the dearth of research into climate change impacts on Sri Lanka’s food system. Further research is required to understand how changes in climate may affect other components of the food system including productivity of a wider range of food crops, livestock and fisheries, and shed light on the causal pathways of climate-induced nutritional insecurity.     

Soil Erosion: A Food and Environmental Threat

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental and public health problems facing human society. Humans obtain more than 99.7% of their food (calories) from the land and less than 0.3% from the oceans and other aquatic ecosystems. Each year about 10 million ha of cropland are lost due to soil erosion, thus reducing the cropland available for food production. The loss of cropland is a serious problem because the World Health Organization reports that more than 3.7 billion people are malnourished in the world. Overall soil is being lost from land areas 10 to 40 times faster than the rate of soil renewal imperiling future human food security and environmental quality.     

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia, under different policy scenarios

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.     

Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China

There are increasing attempts to define the measures of ‘dangerous anthropogenic inference with the climate system’ in context of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, due to its linkage to goals for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The criteria for identifying dangerous anthropogenic interference may be characterized in terms of the consequences of climate change. In this study, we use the water stress index (WSI) and agricultural net primary production (NPP) as indictors to assess where and when there might be dangerous effects arising from the projected climate changes for Chinese agricultural production. The results showed that based on HadCM3-based climate change scenarios, the region between the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain (34.25–47.75°N, 110.25–126.25°E) would be vulnerable to the projected climate change. The analyses on inter-annual variability showed that the agricultural water resources conditions would fluctuate through the period of 2001–2080 in the region under IPCC SRES A2 scenario, with the period of 2021–2040 as critical drought period. Agricultural NPP is projected to have a general increasing trend through the period of 2001–2080; however, it could decrease during the period of 2005–2035 in the region under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, and during the period of 2025–2035 under IPCC SRES B2 scenario. Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of global mean temperature increase, more works are needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China. Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies.     

1990～2015年长江流域县域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素分析

长江流域粮食生产与经济发展在全国均占据重要地位,研究近25年长江流域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素,可为我国粮食安全及流域可持续发展提供科学依据。基于1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年长江流域县域粮食产量、户籍人口数据、农业化肥使用量和粮食播种面积（740个区县）,运用粮食变化指数、探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）、重心转移模型和空间误差模型(SEM)研究其时空格局演变特征及影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）1990～2015年长江流域粮食产量总体呈增长趋势,东西差异显著,年均增长率为0.5%,上中下游依次为0.6%、0.8%和 -0.7%;上游为劣势区,中游为优势增长区,下游为减弱区。（2）粮食产量冷点聚类一直分布在上游地区,聚类格局在2000年左右由西南边界的“L”型转变为西北倒“L”型;下游江淮地区与太湖平原的热点集聚在2000年后消失,且长期处于减产状态;人均粮食占有量与粮食产量时空格局演变呈较高的空间相似性,2000年为流域粮食生产与粮食安全格局发生变化的转折点。（3）1990～2015年长江流域一般余粮县和重要余粮县重心呈现出“南下西移”态势,缺粮县和供需紧平衡县重心发生了“从南向北、从西向东”迁移变化。（4）粮食播种面积和农业化肥施用量对粮食生产均具显著性正向效益。     

Policy design for a multifunctional landscape

Landscapes consisting of several elements, such as wetlands and forests, are multifunctional in nature and produce both market and non-market goods. The need for policies arises from the existence of non-market ecosystem services that are not traded and thereby generally not subject to economic trade-offs in landowner decision making. An efficient incentive scheme for producing both types of goods would require policy designed for each non-market good. However, this may result in high transaction costs, possibly giving second-best solutions a comparative advantage when only one non-market good is regulated. This paper demonstrates that in the Hovran catchment area in mid Sweden, which produces the non-market goods water quality, biodiversity, and scenic beauty, compensation payments for biodiversity production alone provide almost maximum total net value of all market and non-market goods. On the other hand, payments for providing scenic beauty in the form of open landscape may result in lower total net value than no compensation payment at all, due to a negative impact on water quality.     

Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia

One of the targets of the United Nations ‘Millennium Development Goals’ adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However, crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when, where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security, such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that, on an aggregate level, there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2°C; until 2020s), provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would, however, continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond), productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2°C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3°C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system, the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of ~2°C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season.     

安徽省粮食生产的主成分分析及其趋势预测

采用安徽省1978～2010年的相关社会经济统计资料为基础数据,在对33 a来粮食动态变化的定量定性分析基础上,利用主成分分析方法探讨了区域粮食生产的影响因子。然后根据安徽33 a粮食总产量的历史数据,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对安徽省未来20 a（2011～2030年）的粮食产量进行中长期的模拟预测,以期为相关部门粮食生产决策提供科学依据。研究表明：(1)1978～2010年,安徽省粮食生产在波动中增长,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量曲线的动态变化基本吻合。（2）影响粮食生产的3个主要成分分别是社会经济发展水平、农业生产成本和粮食作物播种面积。（3）粮食生产在2011～2030年将保持平稳增长的良性发展态势,2030年粮食预测产量达到4 119万t,比2010年增长了1 039万t,年均增长15%。〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗     

Participatory assessment of the sustainability of livelihoods in the agroecosystem of Abesard,Iran

In order to improve the livelihoods of communities and make them more sustainable, study of the vulnerability of livelihoods seems necessary. In this paper, participatory vulnerability analysis was used within a sustainable rural livelihoods framework to assess the sustainability of livelihoods in the agroecosystem of Abesard, Iran. In addition, this paper explored vulnerability contexts that affect livelihood assets. Findings revealed that land use change, climate variability, market fluctuations and higher mechanisation were the main reasons of vulnerability. To overcome these problems and to adapt to changes, households have followed livelihood strategies such as agricultural intensification, livelihood diversification, and agricultural biodiversity. The government has also provided some services such as extension programmes, fertilizers, and subsidies to compensate for asset limitations. Overall, implementation of the following development policies are recommended: (1) support of agricultural production by government institutions; (2) moving towards the development of sustainable agricultural practises that integrate a variety of methods in a sustainable manner; (3) development of agricultural intensification in a sustainable way that compensates for any inadequacy of assets; and (4) providing adult vocational training programmes for both men and women related to on-farm and off-farm activities. In the end, results highlighted the need for more emphasis on overcoming the challenges of sustainable agriculture using a participatory approach in assessment of the vulnerability of community livelihoods.     

农业结构调整对全国粮食安全的影响分析--以粮食主产区为例

基于粮食主产区农业发展及其结构调整中面临的问题分析，指出近5年来导致我国粮食产量持续下降的主要原因在于农业结构调整。大规模的“压粮扩经”趋势若不能有效控制，必将对国家粮食安全带来冲击。对2005-2010年我国粮食需求及粮食主产区占全国粮食产量比重进行测算．提出不同粮食自给率下国家粮食安全对粮食主产区粮食生产的目标要求。粮食主产区具有满足国家粮食安全产量需要的生产潜力。