Practical tools for quantitative analysis of coastal vulnerability and sea level rise impacts—application in a Caribbean island and assessment of the 1.5 °C threshold

The quantitative analysis of hurricane impacts on coastal development in the Caribbean is surprisingly infrequent and many tools to assess physical vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) are insufficient to evaluate risk in coastal areas exposed to wave attack during extreme events. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify coastal hazards and evaluate SLR impact scenarios in coastal areas, providing quantitative input for coastal vulnerability analysis. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology with results from a site-specific analysis. We quantify how storm wave impacts penetrate farther inland and reach higher elevations for increasing SLR conditions. We also show that the increase in elevation of storm wave impacts is more than the nominal increase in mean sea level, and that elevation increase may be on the order of up to twice the nominal SLR. By developing design parameters for multiple scenarios, as opposed to the determination of a single SLR value for design established by consensus, this approach generates information that we argue encourages resilient design and embedding future adaptation in coastal design. We discuss how government planners and regulators, as well as real estate developers, lenders, and investors, can improve coastal planning and resilient design of coastal projects by using this approach.     

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the predicted sea level rise in the coastal zone of Krishna–Godavari delta region,Andhra Pradesh,east coast of India

The Krishna–Godavari coastal region in east coast of India has a 525.15-km-long coastline with low-lying tidal mudflats, beaches, mangrove swamp, creek and tidal channels. Recently, the increasing frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Phylin and Hudhud in Andhra Pradesh coast, and the devastating impact of the 2004 tsunami in India increased the significance in assessing the vulnerability of the coastal lands to inundation and flooding, notably in the context of climate change-induced sea level rise. This study aims to estimate a coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for the coastal subregion of Krishna–Godavari delta and to use the calculated index to evaluate the vulnerability of 14 coastal talukas of the Krishna–Godavari delta region. This CVI is calculated by using four geological and three physical parameters characterizing the vulnerability of the study coastal region, including regional slope, coastal elevation, geomorphology, significant wave height, mean tidal range and relative sea level using different conventional and remotely sensed data. Using a composite coastal vulnerability index based on the relative risk rating of those parameters, each of the 14 coastal talukas was classified according to their vulnerability. The CVI results depict that coasts are least and most vulnerable to inundation, flooding and erosion of coastal lands where geological parameters are more efficient to CVI. The paper alerts to decision makers and planners to mitigate the natural disaster and manage the coastal zone and is a primary step toward prioritizing coastal lands for climate change adaptation strategies in the view of increased storminess and projected sea level rise.