论资源宏观预警的八组关系

本文论述了资源宏观预警中要进一步处理好的宏观与微观、长期与短期、长线与短线、单项与综合、实物与价值、资源与资产、速度与效益、绝对与相对等几组关系。     

建设资源节约型农业的途径与模式

建设资源节约型农业的根本途径是提高农业生产力。其中主要的措施有:科学利用气候资源,充分发挥气候生产潜力;十分珍惜每寸土地,努力提高土地生产率;大力推行节水措施,扩大农田灌溉面积;科学合理施肥,持续提高单产;提高能源利用率,解决农村能源短缺;实现人畜分粮,缓解人地关系;促进农产品商品流通,提高农业经济效益等。立体农业是发展资源节约型农业的最佳模式,也是中国式的高效益资源节约型农业的重要模式之一。     

长江中下游湿地保护与流域生态管理

湿地是地球上具有多功能的、独特的生态系统,是人类最重要的生存环境之一。长江中下游湿地保护必须从流域管理角度进行规划和保护,应由过去主要是单块湿地保护向按流域系统保护的转变。具体可采取以下措施：在流域内建立统一协调机制,对流域湿地进行保护与合理利用,合理布局,统一规划;按湖泊流域和物种分布整合现有保护区,建立新的湿地保护区,解决目前管理上的制约问题;大力开展湿地修复重建;推进退耕还林、长江防护林等工程建设,发挥森林治理水土流失、涵养水源的作用;在保护的前提下科学合理地利用长江中下游湿地资源,开拓新的生产力;同时加强湿地科学研究。     

生态系统服务市场化工具:概念、类型与适用

生态系统服务市场化工具作为一种与命令控制型进路相对的环境政策工具,最初与污染问题相联系而出现,之后扩展至生物多样性和生态系统服务的保护,被认为能够更有效地应对市场失灵,为自然资源管理提供正向激励,有助于优化资源配置以及填补生态保护资金缺口。通过对生态系统服务市场化工具概念、类型和适用的考察,可以发现生态系统服务市场化工具的概念虽频繁出现,但界定过于宽泛模糊,几乎泛指所有带有价格成分的工具;生态系统服务市场化工具的类型划分并不一致,基于归纳的类型划分将现行市场化工具归纳为基于价格的机制、基于数量的机制和市场摩擦机制三类,而基于演绎的类型划分,则将市场化工具分为直接市场交易、许可证交易、反向拍卖、科斯类型协议、调控价格变化和自愿性价格信号六类;生态系统服务市场化工具的适用需要以生态系统服务的货币化为前提,受制于制度背景,并且应当针对市场的弊端予以法律规制,确保交易能够真正提供环境效益;市场化工具的选择不仅有赖于数字运算,还应当考虑多种因素并予以权衡,同时综合运用各种市场化或非市场化工具。中国在建立健全生态保护市场体系的过程中,应当把握生态系统服务市场化工具通过生态系统服务货币化和商品化解决环境外部性问题这一实质,理解缓解银行、生态系统服务付费、反向拍卖、生态标签和生态认证等典型市场化工具的运行机理,明确生态系统服务市场化工具适用的前提和规则,更好地发挥市场化工具的积极功效,从而实现特定的环境政策目标。     

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用多功能性诊断

从经济、社会和生态3个方面出发构建土地利用多功能性评价指标体系,应用熵权TOPSIS模型对江苏省近年来土地利用多功能性进行诊断分析可以优化区域土地的合理开发,提高土地利用效率,为促进区域的可持续发展提供有效依据。研究结果表明：2006~2016年江苏省土地利用综合功能经历了一般—良好的发展阶段,综合功能在不断优化;经济功能经历了较差—一般—良好—优秀—良好的发展阶段,虽然有所波动,但其依旧呈增长态势;社会功能经历了较差—一般—良好—优秀的发展阶段,呈现出持续稳步提高趋势;生态功能经历了一般—良好—一般的发展趋势,整体呈下降趋势。另外土地利用的经济功能和社会功能子目标的障碍度在逐年下降,对目前江苏省土地利用有效性起制约作用的主要是生态功能,应减少废水排放和工业固体废弃物等污染造成的生态破坏,加强水资源的保护,同时缩小城乡差距,推进城乡融合,促进土地利用过程中经济、社会和生态功能的协调发展。     

The influence of the level of definition of functional specifications on the environmental performances of a complex system. EcoCSP approach

The tendency towards a homogenous mode of development modelled on that of Western countries means that sustainable development has become increasingly urgent. It is necessary to thoroughly redefine products and their expected performances in such a way that the consequences are compatible with sustainable development. In the domain of product design, this means that it is no longer sufficient to use assessment tools “after the fact” to check the impact of products whose functional unit (FU) was defined prior to production; it is now necessary to rethink the definition of the FU itself. This article aims to present an approach based on a combination of life cycle analysis methods and problem-solving by constraint satisfaction. This original approach makes it possible to vary the design of the different dimensions of the FUs of a complex system and thus to make it easier to identify the best architecture along with the best functional definition of the system. In this study, the EcoCSP approach is applied to define the functional performances of an ecological passenger ferry. The complexity of couplings between subsystems and the sheer number of those subsystems mean that the designer has to use “intelligent” tools. These simulate a great number of scenarios and help him/her to fine-tune the system and make the right technological choices with regard to the right functional specifications.     

长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析

基于长江中下游流域75个雨量站1960~2012年的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,全面地分析了长江中下游流域旱涝急转的趋势变化和时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)长周期旱涝急转表现为以涝转旱事件为主,且存在由旱涝急转事件向全旱或全涝事件过渡的趋势,短周期的旱涝急转发生频率较高的也是涝转旱事件;(2)长江中下游北岸多发生旱转涝事件,南岸则多发生涝转旱事件;(3)1998年和2011年6~7月短周期高强度旱转涝事件发生在长江北岸,涝转旱事件发生在南岸地区;5~6月与7~8月旱涝急转事件强度分布则呈相反状态;(4)总体来说,长、短周期涝转旱频次呈现不断减小的趋势,旱转涝有轻微增加的趋势。7~8月则较为特殊,湘江流域涝转旱有增加的趋势,洞庭湖地区涝转旱显著增加,此研究结果可以为长江中下游流域防洪抗旱工作提供一定的依据。     

Determination of the sources of toxic elements in environmental particles using microscopic and statistical analysis techniques

Samples of urban dust were physically fractionated into subsamples having unique size, density, ferromagnetism, and elemental compositional characteristics. The high density fractions containing the majority of each of the potentially toxic metals (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cr, Co, Mn) were subjected to X-ray microanalysis and to bulk analysis using instrumental neutron activation. Microanalysis was used to classify individual particles with respect to primary sources. The bulk analytical results were subjected to factor analysis to delineate the underlying factors (particle sources) responsible for the compositional variation in the subsamples. The advantages of the combined use of microanalytical and statistical techniques for source definition are described. X-ray microanalysis is used to substantiate the attribution of a given factor to a suspected particle source, to aid in the determination of the number of factors (sources) present, and to assess the extent to which a given factor represents a unique source of particles. Bulk analysis/factor analysis promotes the most effective use of X-ray microanalysis to characterize major particle types, and provides data on some toxic trace metals (e.g., Cd) that are not detectable using X-ray microanalysis. Target transformation factor analysis also is more useful in the quantitative determination of the relative mass contributions of major sources to the total dust sample.     

后巴黎时代气候变化公约资金机制的构建

气候变化公约资金机制是串联全球开展应对气候变化行动的纽带,也是通过国际合作实现"2℃"乃至"1.5℃"温控目标的关键支撑。多年来,由于发达国家和发展中国家在是否依据历史责任划分履约义务上存在根本分歧,公约资金机制面临多渠道并行、运行规则多样化、资金使用分散、运行效率偏低、绩效评估欠缺等问题。本文对气候变化公约缔结20余年来各资金机制的产生和运行进行了系统梳理;对其存在的不足以及在全球气候融资体系中面临的挑战进行了剖析;并基于《巴黎协定》资金案文描述和履约要求,围绕气候资金从筹集到最终绩效产出全过程,就如何构建未来气候变化公约资金机制进行了统筹规划和设计。在机制建设层面,通过出资分摊机制以及公约下集中式管理平台的构建,确保气候资金的充足性、可预见性以及对公约的责任性;在运行操作层面,通过各渠道重点业务领域及国别资金分配体系的优化,推动气候资金的公平性和有效性;在资金使用层面,通过受援国气候资金统一管理实体和监督评估体系的建立,提高气候资金的国家主导性和环境效益。未来,公约资金机制仍将是全球开展应对气候变化国际合作的主要渠道,在《巴黎协定》达成、绿色气候基金正式运行、国际气候制度重新构建的背景下,利用资金机制推动发达国家履行公约义务,切实向发展中国家提供资金、技术和能力建设支持,对确保公约各要素的全面性和平衡性,推动全球应对气候变化行动开展,强化发展中国家集团统一立场都有着重要的现实意义。     

南水北调中线工程中的引江济汉补偿工程

引江济汉是南水北调中线引汉调水的补偿工程,按总体规划应结合当地水利规划建设,不宜修成封闭的“高架”水渠只向汉江下游补水。遵循节约资源、保护环境、推动发展的思路,引江济汉应以江苏江水北调模式,扩展和延伸为引江入汉济黄,取代南水北调中线二期扩建工程。①引江入长湖利用沮漳河下游河道输水,并改造荆州城市水系,破解血吸虫病传播扩散、泥沙入湖和水源污染三大环境风险;②引江入汉利用长湖调蓄提水至兴隆水库,节省渠道长度;③碾盘山梯级采取一级二站抽水蓄能开发方式,简化汉江干流反向输水工程,抽江至崔家营水库,引清调度改善汉江中下游水质,又为黄河下游增加水资源量提供稳定可靠的水源;④从“南襄隘道”唐河东侧修建鄂豫运河,将长江水不经丹江口水库直接送达方城去郑州济黄,推进构建一条纵贯南北的水运干线。     

Human recreational exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria in coastal bathing waters

Infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) are associated with poor health outcomes and are recognised globally as a serious health problem. Much research has been conducted on the transmission of ARB to humans. Yet the role the natural environment plays in the spread of ARB and antibiotic resistance genes is not well understood. Antibiotic resistant bacteria have been detected in natural aquatic environments, and ingestion of seawater during water sports is one route by which many people could be directly exposed.The aim was to estimate the prevalence of resistance to one clinically important class of antibiotics (third-generation cephalosporins (3GCs)) amongst Escherichia coli in coastal surface waters in England and Wales. Prevalence data was used to quantify ingestion of 3GC-resistant E. coli (3GCREC) by people participating in water sports in designated coastal bathing waters. A further aim was to use this value to derive a population-level estimate of exposure to these bacteria during recreational use of coastal waters in 2012.The prevalence of 3GC-resistance amongst E. coli isolated from coastal surface waters was estimated using culture-based methods. This was combined with the density of E. coli reported in designated coastal bathing waters along with estimations of the volumes of water ingested during various water sports reported in the literature to calculate the mean number of 3GCREC ingested during different water sports.0.12% of E. coli isolated from surface waters were resistant to 3GCs. This value was used to estimate that in England and Wales over 6.3 million water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that resulted in the ingestion of at least one 3GCREC.Despite the low prevalence of resistance to 3GCs amongst E. coli in surface waters, there is an identifiable human exposure risk for water users, which varies with the type of water sport undertaken. The relative importance of this exposure is likely to be greater in areas where a large proportion of the population enjoys water sports. Millions of water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that were likely to have resulted in people ingesting E. coli resistant to a single class of antibiotics (3GCs). However, this is expected to be a significant underestimate of recreational exposure to all ARB in seawater.This is the first study to use volumes of water ingested during different water sports to estimate human exposure to ARB. Further work needs to be done to elucidate the health implications and clinical relevance of exposure to ARB in both marine and fresh waters in order to fully understand the risk to public health.     

Data assimilation for short range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides: a case study of second-order sensitivity

This article presents the application of variational data assimilation to a simple Gaussian plume model for radionuclides. Adjoint modeling is applied to the model in order to minimize discrepancies between contamination observations and model outputs. The interest of such an approach is to get a better estimation of some parameters such as emissions or dispersion parameters.A second-order analysis is also performed to assess the sensitivity of the optimized parameters to some poorly known parameters. Sensitivity with respect to network design is also done.     

Risk to water security for small islands: an assessment framework and application

The freshwater resources of small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human stressors due to their limited extent and adaptive capacity. A water security approach is useful for effective management of the water resources; however, understanding risk to water security is critical in order to effectively plan and adapt to future changes. Currently available assessment tools generally do not incorporate risk and are not suitable for application on small islands, where the hydrogeological setting has unique vulnerabilities. The aim of this work is to provide a framework to characterize risk to water security for small islands. The risk assessment was developed using Andros Island, the Bahamas, as a case study area. Numerical modelling characterizes the response of the water system to potential future stressors related to climate change and human development, the results of which are integrated into the assessment framework. Based on risk assessment principles, indicators are determined for susceptibility, hazard threat, vulnerability and loss, in order to define the risk to water security. The resulting indicators are presented in geospatial maps that rank areas of risk to water security. These maps were provided to local water managers and policy-makers in the Bahamas as a tool to identify high-risk areas for near-term action and to inform long-term planning. The maps have also been used as a platform to engage local residents and raise awareness about the impact climate change and land-use activities may have on water security.     

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China’s own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.     

Beasts,Burgers, and Hummers: Meat and the Crisis of Masculinity in Contemporary Television Advertisements

This paper examines three recent television advertisements that symbolically link meat not only with masculinity, but specifically with the “crisis in masculinity.” Using an ecofeminist lens, I engage in an intersectional analysis of these advertisements to demonstrate how they articulate the eating of meat with primitive masculinities as a response to perceived threats to hegemonic masculinity. These advertisements demonstrate that scholars interested in the status of masculinity must pay attention to the “threats” to masculinity posed by environmental and animal rights movements, and that scholars interested in environmental movements must pay attention to the role of masculinity in resisting moves toward sustainability. This analysis demonstrates the utility of ecofeminism in understanding the relationship between hegemonic masculinity and environmentalism while also pointing to the need for ecofeminism to continue to explore the implications of intersectionality for ecofeminist theory and criticism.     

南京城市基础设施现代化建设进程与对策

提出南京城市基础设施现代化的六大指标体系,即道路交通快捷化、公用设施优质化、邮电通讯信息化、住宅设施舒适化、排水防洪标准化、城市环境生态化并提出相应的临界值。选择其中十项具有典型意义的指标,建立灰色系统预测模型,预测南京城市基础设现代化建设进程可分三个阶段：1999－2013年为基本实现城市基础设施现代化阶段;2014－2020年为城市基础设施现代化建设中级阶段;2021－2030年为城市基础设施现代化建设高级阶段。实现现代化建设目标应从增强城市经济实力、提升中心城市功能、优化城市基础设施结构、调整城市空间形态结构、拓宽融资渠道、构建市场主导型的融资结构、加强城市生态环境建设、实现城市可持续发展等方面采取对策。     

Shifting from apple to peach farming in Kazuno, northern Japan: perceptions of and responses to climatic and non-climatic impacts

Apple farmers in Kazuno, northern Japan, have started to grow peaches in the northernmost climatic region suitable for peach farming. Here, we investigate the process from the initial introduction of peach cultivation to its diffusion focusing on the farmers’ perceptions of climatic and non-climatic stimuli and their actions to respond to these stressors. Interviews with the farmers identified three distinct groups. Four farmers (Group 1) initiated the transition to peach production, which then spread to other farmers (Group 2) via personal connections. Later, after the provision of various means of support from the local government and the producers’ cooperative, many more apple farmers (Group 3) decided to begin peach production. Most farmers recognized the risk of damages to apple production as a result of typhoons and drought. However, only Group 1 farmers, who depend on direct sales to customers, mentioned these climate-related damages as a reason to shift toward peach cultivation in order to maintain their customers. The peach fruit was specifically chosen as a replacement for apple because it is less vulnerable to these climatic stressors. For Group 3 farmers, the financial losses associated with these climate-related events could be compensated for by insurance. Their decision to grow peach is largely due to its higher price and immunity against a specific disease which affects apples but they only shifted once institutional support was available, thereby reducing the risk in cultivating a new species. Our findings suggest that the role of institutions was not to drive the process of the adaptation itself but rather to provide relevant support to farmers to enable them to shift to new crop varieties more easily. We argue that such process-based understanding is crucial in formulating strategies to increase adaptive capacity in agriculture.     

A critical review of measures to reduce radioactive doses from drinking water and consumption of freshwater foodstuffs.

Following a radioactive fallout event, there are a number of possible intervention measures to reduce radioactive doses to the public via the surface water pathway. We have critically reviewed the options available to decision-makers in the event of radioactive contamination of surface waters. We believe that the most effective and viable measures to reduce radioactivity in drinking water are those which operate at the water treatment and distribution stage. Intervention measures to reduce concentrations of radioactivity in rivers and reservoirs are expected to be much less viable and efficient at reducing doses via the drinking water pathway. Bans on consumption of freshwater fish can be effective, but there are few viable measures to reduce radioactivity in fish prior to the preparation stage. Lake liming and biomanipulation have been found to be ineffective for radiocaesium, although the addition of potassium to lakewaters appears promising in some situations. Lake liming may be effective in reducing radiostrontium in fish, though this has not, to our knowledge, been tested. De-boning fish contaminated by strontium is probably the most effective food preparation measure, but salting and freezing can also reduce radiocaesium concentrations in fish. The provision of accurate information to the public is highlighted as a key element of countermeasure implementation.     

Intergenerational Efficiency of Farmland Conversion and Farmland Resource Loss in China

One of the requirements of sustainable utilization of resources is the efficiency of intergenerational allocation, which is important to the long-term utilization of resources. Based on the principle of efficient intergenerational allocation of resource in resource economics, this paper builds an ex post model to measure the efficiency of intergenerational allocation of farmland resource, and points out that with the continuous testing and modifying in practice according to the model results, the allocation of farmland resource in the future can continuously converge at the efficient allocation. This paper employs this model to test the allocation of the farmland resource from 1989 to 2003, and the result shows that if the test sample is divided into 1989 to 1996 period and 1997 to 2003 period, which due to the stricter farmland resource protection policy issued after 1996, the inefficient farmland conversion of the three main regions in China in the period of 1989 to 1996 was 6.58%, 6.84%, 7.85%, respectively.     

Estimated heavy metal emissions to the atmosphere due to projected changes in the Brazilian energy generation matrix

An estimate of heavy metals emissions to the atmosphere due to the projected changes in the Brazilian energy generation fuel matrix is presented. Present use of fossil fuel combustion for energy production is projected to increase from the present 14.5% to 29.6% of the total energy generation in Brazil in 2005. Most of this increase will be based on coal- and natural-gas-burning plants. The changes will result in an increase of about 100% in the average emissions (in tons year⁻¹) of As (9.4 to 17.7), Cr (7.0 to 16.6) and Hg (2.4 to 4.1), 50% of Cd (1.2 to 1.8), and 20% of Ni (101 to 123) and Pb (23.3 to 29.9). Although relatively small for most heavy metals when compared to other industrial sources, the changes in the energy matrix will be particularly important for Hg, reaching a maximum emission of 12 tons (t) year⁻¹, representing 15% of the total emissions of Hg to the atmosphere in Brazil. The use of Brazilian coals and the location of most coal-burning plants in a relatively small region in the south of the country strongly suggest that monitoring programs should be implemented during the building of the new plants. At a regional level the expected increase in Hg emissions to the atmosphere due to coal burning in Brazil, although small relative to North America and Europe, will equal the total amount estimated for South and Central America.