上海宁波两港集装箱航运网络研究（2004~2015年）

港口之间的竞争不仅仅是对陆向腹地货源的竞争,还是对海向腹地特别是航线的争夺。选取上海和宁波为样本,以网络分析软件Gephi和ArcGIS为基本工具,通过复杂网络指标分析上海宁波两港2004~2015年航运地位的变化,以航区为海向腹地的基本空间单元,刻画上海、宁波两港海向腹地市场的变动格局。研究发现：上海港一直保持中国航运网络中的中心地位,近年来,宁波港的网络地位明显上升,中心性与中介性在中国大陆各港口中仅落后于上海港而排在第二位;两港口市场覆盖范围不断扩张,宁波港在近洋航线上不如上海港,但在远洋航线的地中海、西北欧、南亚、北美东西两岸、南美东西两岸、非洲东西两岸等两港覆盖的港口数旗鼓相当;两港口在各航区的首位联系港具有一致性,但至2015年,上海港与美国东部纽约等港口的主要联系被宁波港所取代。在研究数据选取上,采用了航线数据,突破了现有研究以吞吐量数据为主的限制,在研究方法上采用了可视化网络分析软件,将定性数据进行了定量化转化,大大提升了研究成果的可靠性。     

Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus coccifera</Emphasis> L.) in the Levant under climate change

Quercus coccifera L. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian–Lebanese coast up to 1500 m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes.     

Synoptic patterns associated with extreme dust events in the Mediterranean Basin

Extreme dust events over the western, central and eastern Mediterranean are identified analysing the aerosol optical depth remote-sensed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001–2010 and simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in 2000–2007. The seasonal variability of the dust events and the evolution of the synoptic circulation patterns before and during the events are studied. Results show that the highest occurrence of short events (1–3 days) is in the eastern Mediterranean, while long events (more than 4 days) are more frequent in the western Mediterranean. Short events are concentrated in spring, while long events do not show a clear seasonality. The synoptic circulation patterns accompanying short and long events are similar, and the occurrence across the Mediterranean Basin is related to westerly low-pressure systems. Dust events in the western Mediterranean are associated with high-pressure conditions limiting the development of lows to the western North Africa, while the eastward evolution of cyclones over the central Mediterranean and Northern Africa accompanies dust events in the central and eastern Mediterranean.     

A high-resolution climatological study on the comparison between surface explosive and ordinary cyclones in the Mediterranean

The dynamic and kinematic characteristics of surface explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean are examined and compared to those of ordinary cyclones. The cyclone detection is performed with the tracking algorithm developed in the University of Melbourne, using the 1° × 1° ERA-40 mean sea level pressure dataset for a 40 year period. It is verified that the explosive cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean is mainly a maritime phenomenon, occurring along the northern Mediterranean coast during the cold season. On the contrary, the ordinary cyclogenesis exhibits significant maxima in both continental and maritime environments throughout the year. The explosive cyclones are characterized by longer lifetime and greater propagation speed. They are larger and deeper in the eastern Mediterranean, whereas the ordinary cyclones are deeper in the western and larger in the eastern Mediterranean. The trend analysis revealed that both explosive and ordinary cyclones become less frequent in the Mediterranean basin, while there is a tendency for deeper ordinary cyclones over North Africa and shallower over the Aegean Sea and Cyprus.     

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

Screening ecological risk assessment of persistent organic pollutants in Mediterranean sea sediments

A screening ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for the first time in the Mediterranean basin in order to assess the toxicity posed to the benthic community by PCBs, DDTs and HCB in marine sediments. The characterization of the exposure was conducted by means of an extensive literature survey, generating a database with more than 2000 samples. The effects were assessed by the adoption of guidelines previously developed in the literature, because ecotoxicological information about persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Mediterranean sediments was lacking. Existing sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) for the target pollutants were compiled and consensus values were calculated for three different categories of toxicity, namely threshold effect concentration (TEC), probable effect concentration (PEC) and extreme effect concentration (EEC). The combination of exposure and effects characterization enabled the identification of some areas of concern in the vicinity of industrial and urban locations and in the mouths of the main Mediterranean rivers. Beyond the Mediterranean continental shelf, the level of toxicity for the benthic community was generally low. The evaluation of the toxicity induced by the mixture of the target pollutants spotted the importance of DDT contamination in the Mediterranean sediments, despite the fact that main inputs to the sea have been significantly reduced during the last decades.     

Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate

Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.     

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.     

Development of coastal recreational water quality standards in the Mediterranean

Concern about adverse health effects arising out of human exposure to polluted seawater through bathing and other forms of aquatic recreation has led to the development of various quality criteria and standards worldwide. Attempts at quantifying health hazards from polluted recreational waters have been made in several Mediterranean countries through the conduction of epidemiological studies aimed at establishing direct correlation between the microbiological quality of the water and health effects on exposed population groups. This article provides an overview on the development of the criteria and standards for coastal recreational waters in the Mediterranean by examining the evolution of the WHO guidelines, the WHO/UNEP interim criteria for bathing waters and the EU Directives. It also provides a brief account of the various quality criteria and standards for coastal recreational waters in current use in all the Mediterranean countries.     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Variation of the activity concentrations and fluxes of natural (210Po, 210Pb) and anthropogenic (239,240Pu, 137Cs) radionuclides in the Strait of Gibraltar (Spain)

The activity concentrations and fluxes of natural (210Pb, 210Po) and anthropogenic (239,240Pu, 137Cs) radionuclides have been determined in the different water masses crossing the Strait of Gibraltar. New data have been gathered during four multidisciplinary and multinational sampling campaigns, performed between 1997 and 1999 within the framework of the CANIGO-FLUGIST Project. Mean activity concentrations of 210Po (1.53+/-0.34 Bq m(-3), n = 30) and 210Pb (1.16+/-0.50 Bq m(-3), n = 31) in the Atlantic water entering the Mediterranean basin are about double those measured in the Mediterranean outflow, namely 0.84+/-0.34 Bq m(-3) (n = 22) for 210Po and 0.66+/-0.34 Bq m(-3) (n = 22) for 210Pb. The opposite trend is observed for 231,240Pu, with average concentrations of 9.9+/-3.0 mBq m(-3) (n = 29) in the incoming Atlantic flow and 22.0+/-3.0 mBq m(-3) (n = 22) in the outpouring Mediterranean water. In the case of 137Cs, the same concentrations were quantified in the waters moving inwards (2.52+/-0.28 Bq m(-3), n = 27) and outwards (2.14+/-0.52 Bq m(-3), n = 21) from the Mediterranean Sea. On this basis, the Mediterranean basin experiences a net annual input flux of 14 TBq of 210Pb and 19 TBq of 210Po, and a net annual loss of 0.34 TBq of 239,240Pu, while--at present--137Cs input and output fluxes appear to be balanced.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

New insight to tourism-environment nexus in Mediterranean countries: evidence from panel vector autoregression approach

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper analyzed the relationship between environmental performance and tourism sector development in Mediterranean countries for the period from...     

Organochlorine compounds and stable isotopes indicate bottlenose dolphin subpopulation structure around the Iberian Peninsula

Isotopic signatures and organochlorine pollutant loads of organisms reflect the characteristics of the waters in which they live and feed. To investigate population structure of bottlenose dolphins around the Iberian Peninsula we determined delta(13)C and delta(15)N in the skin and organochlorine (OC) levels in the blubber of stranded bottlenose dolphins inhabiting the Mediterranean (Catalonia, Valencia and Balearic Islands) and adjacent Atlantic waters (Huelva and Portugal). OC levels were high in all regions, reflecting the predatory habits of the species, its coastal distribution and the existence of intense agricultural and industrial activity throughout the region. PCB congeners showed a gradient from the relatively more chlorinated forms to those that are less so, and followed a northeast to northwest direction across the Iberian Peninsula. This suggests that PCB inputs are more recent in the temperate latitudes of the eastern Atlantic Ocean than in the western Mediterranean Sea. Comparatively, OC ratios and isotopic signatures proved to be more efficient ways of discriminating groups than did raw OC concentrations. Significant differences in delta(13)C and in PCB congener profiles indicate that dolphins from the Atlantic and the Mediterranean do not intermingle. In addition, the two Atlantic groups differed in delta(15)N signature, tDDT concentration, DDT/PCB ratio and the PCB congener profile, which also suggests some degree of isolation between them. In the Mediterranean, dolphins from Catalonia and Valencia were indistinguishable, suggesting a common distribution area. However, dolphins from the Balearic Islands differed from those of the Peninsula in their DDT/PCB ratio and from all the other sample groups in their PCB congener profiles, which supports the hypothesis that the deep waters between the Islands and the Peninsula represent an effective barrier for the species.     

Pleistocene Refugia for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calluna vulgaris</Emphasis> (L.) Hull Populations in the European Atlantic Region

The distribution of nine chloroplast DNA haplotypes in four insular North-Atlantic and four European coastal Atlantic populations of Calluna vulgaris in the glacial zone of the range has been analyzed in comparison with that in six marginal southern populations in the nonglacial zone of the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. As a result, two hypothetical Pleistocene refugia (HPRs) for this C. vulgaris population group have been revealed, one in the Cévennes mountain range and the other in the Southern Alps (Trento). Judging from the 1–F_ST value, it has been found that the group of populations in the glacial Atlantic zone and adjacent European coastal Atlantic region is genetically similar to the HPR in the Cévennes at a highly significant level (p ≥ 0.999) and less similar to the HPR in Trento; however, it differs significantly from other Mediterranean and Atlantic populations. It has been concluded that the most probable hypothetical Pleistocene refugium for the recent C. vulgaris populations of the northeastern Atlantic and European coastal Atlantic regions was in the west of the Mediterranean, in the Cévennes, while the additional refugium was in the Southern Alps. Possible directions of the postglacial dispersal and recolonization of habitats by C. vulgaris populations from the western Mediterranean to the northeast of the Atlantic and to Scandinavia have been revealed.     

Peri-urban agro-ecosystems in the Mediterranean: diversity,dynamics, and drivers

Regional Environmental Change - To address sustainability challenges of agro-ecosystems located in Mediterranean urban regions, this paper focuses on the multidisciplinary subject of urban...     

Contrasting direct and indirect effects of warming and drought on isoprenoid emissions from Mediterranean oaks

Regional Environmental Change - The degree to which climate warming and increasing drought will alter isoprenoid emissions of Mediterranean forests remains unclear, because most studies were...     

From hygrothermal adaptation of endemic plants to meteorosensitive biomimetic architecture: case of Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot in Northeastern Algeria

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This research consists in diagnosing the hygrothermal imbalance problem inside tourism buildings located at the edge of the Mediterranean Sea. In...     

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

Regional Environmental Change - The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation....