Developing sustainable practices to adapt to the impacts of climate change: a case study of agricultural systems in eastern England (UK)

The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities are noticeably influencing the world's climate. However, the effects of global climate change will be unevenly spread, due to local variations in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Using downscaled projections of future UK climates over the next 50 years, this paper investigates the impacts of, and possible responses to, climate change in one small area in eastern England, selected as a test-bed for sustainable agriculture. It shows that local agricultural systems are vulnerable to changes in the climate. At present, however, these considerations have a limited effect on agricultural operations, which are mainly driven by short-term events and 'non-climate' policies, such as agricultural price support. The capacity of agricultural systems to adapt successfully to climate change will be determined by the ability of producers to integrate climate change into their planning strategies with a view to ultimately ensuring sustainable agricultural practices in the long term. Electronic Publication     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

Regional Environmental Change - The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid changes in anthropogenic activities but also by global climate change. Given the uncertainties of magnitude and...     

Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO₂ level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.     

Potential health impacts of residential exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields in Europe

Over the last two decades residential exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF MF) has been associated with childhood leukaemia relatively consistently in epidemiological studies, though causality is still under investigation.We aimed to estimate the cases of childhood leukaemia that might be attributable to exposure to ELF MF in the European Union (EU27), if the associations seen in epidemiological studies were causal.We estimated distributions of ELF MF exposure using studies identified in the existing literature. Individual distributions of exposure were integrated using a probabilistic mixture distribution approach. Exposure–response functions were estimated from the most recently published pooled analysis of epidemiological data. Probabilistic simulation was used to estimate population attributable fractions (AF_P) and attributable cases of childhood leukaemia in the EU27.By assigning the literature review-based exposure distribution to all EU27 countries, we estimated the total annual number of cases of leukaemia attributable to ELF MF at between ~ 50 (95% CIs: − 14, 132) and ~ 60 (95% CIs: − 9, 610), depending on whether exposure–response was modelled categorically or continuously, respectively, for a non-threshold effect. This corresponds to between ~ 1.5% and ~ 2.0% of all incident cases of childhood leukaemia occurring annually in the EU27. Considerable uncertainties are due to scarce data on exposure and the choice of exposure–response model, demonstrating the importance of further research into better understanding mechanisms of the potential association between ELF MF exposure and childhood leukaemia and the need for improved monitoring of residential exposures to ELF MF in Europe.     

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.     

Potential climate change induced modifications in mangrove ecosystems: a case study in Benin,West Africa

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Mangroves are one of the most threatened ecosystems globally. Likewise, they benefit many restoration efforts. However, these efforts have often...     

Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US5 and US 5 and US 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US2 and US 2 and US 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Assessing potential secondary effects of countermeasures in agricultural systems: a review.

Secondary effects are defined as any positive or negative impacts resulting from the application of countermeasures other than radiological benefits or direct costs. They are categorised into environmental, radioecological, economic and social effects. Impacts on the environment may include changes in water, air and soil pollution or in the conservation and amenity value of an area. Radioecological effects occur when the countermeasure unintentionally alters the behaviour of the target radionuclide or any other radionuclide present. Economic effects may range from changes in agricultural income to environmental costs (e.g. impact of soil erosion on fisheries). Social effects relate to the acceptability of countermeasures, for example in terms of consumer confidence and animal welfare. Recent research into the identification and assessment of secondary effects is summarised. Non-quantitative and quantitative approaches are explained and formal evaluation procedures involving decision matrices and decision support systems are introduced. Examples of recent experimental and modelling work focusing on radiocaesium are given for the following countermeasures: soil application of potassium, administration of AFCF to livestock and ploughing techniques.     

Putting consumers first in design for sustainable behaviour: a case study of reducing environmental impacts of cold appliance use

To slow down the increasing environmental degradation, design for sustainable behaviour (DfSB) has emerged in sustainable design aiming to promote behavioural change through design innovations to reduce environmental and social impacts from the demand side or consumer side. This paper presents a practice-based journey to investigate the process and results of the application of social-psychological theories into sustainable design. Focusing on the behaviour-related impacts of products and services during the use stage, a Design Behaviour Intervention Model (DBIM) is developed through the analysis and synthesis of the social-psychological theories and behaviour-changing strategies. The DBIM indicates that an in-depth study of consumer behaviour is the preliminary step in DfSB, which determines the application of design strategies and potentially the effectiveness of design interventions. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the model. The results show that consumer behaviour insights offer rich resources to assist designers in sustainable design innovation. Product-based design suggestions and a proposed solution highlight that the application of DBIM coupled with consumer involvement throughout the design process could produce desirable and sustainable patterns of household fridge use. Finally, the structured consideration of behavioural change and their possible application in DfSB are discussed.     

Environmental impacts of land management on the sustainability of natural resources in Oriental Erg Tunisia,North Africa

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In southwestern Tunisia, the intense exploitation of the natural resources (soil, water, hydrocarbons, etc.) bears unrecoverable consequences on the...     

Hydrologic and land use impacts on vegetation growth and NPP at the watershed scale in a semi-arid environment

Significant, adverse climatic change and drastically increased demographic pressure have strongly affected, in recent years, the hydrology and environment in the semi-arid Sahel region of West Africa. Marked rain deficits have coincided with increased water runoff, meaning less water availability for the vegetation. Conversely, changes in vegetation cover have had strong repercussions on the hydrologic cycle. To study these phenomena, the coupling of two explicit, process-based models, of catchment hydrology and of mixed vegetation cover, respectively, has been undertaken and applied to a 2 km² site in Niger. Some of the first significant results are presented herein. Some are consistent with intuitive judgments that can be made in the absence of a coupled model, others are much less so and show that representation through model coupling of hydrosphere/biosphere interactions is essential to produce more reliable analyses and projections. In particular, it is found that the relation of biomass productivity to rainfall under this dry, water-limited climate is not as straightforward as one would expect, more specifically, that its main control may not be the total season rainfall.     

Eco-balance analysis of land use combinations to minimize environmental impacts and maximize farm income in northern Japan

Relationships among global warming potential (GWP), farmland surplus nitrogen (FSN) and income for major land uses in the Ikushunbetsu watershed were compared using the eco-balance method. An empirical model was created for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide for both uplands and paddy rice using monitoring data from 22 fields. The greenhouse gas emissions were converted into GWP, whereas yield and FSN were obtained from interviews with farmers and a literature survey. Land use distribution was obtained by ground surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2007. The analysis showed that paddy rice and soybeans were characterized by a high GWP, low FSN and high income, whereas onions and vegetables had a high FSN but low GWP and moderate income. Wheat showed a negative GWP in some years, and abandoned areas always exhibited negative values. The total GWPs for the region were 14,184, 11,085 and 8,337 Mg CO₂ year⁻¹ for 2002, 2005 and 2007, respectively. The contribution of paddy rice to GWP was highest, ranging from 40 to 75%. To find optimal land use combinations that provide higher incomes and lower GWPs and FSNs than at present, all possible land use combinations were analyzed by changing the land use proportion from 0 to 100% at an interval of 10%. The number of land use combinations meeting the requirements in the three investigated years was 205. Abandoned area, which had the smallest environmental load, was included in every land use combination, indicating that land uses with low environmental impacts should be maintained at a certain proportion to mitigate the environmental load accompanying land uses with high production.     

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

Regional Environmental Change - The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems....     

Livestock foraging behaviour on different land use classes along the semi-arid to sub-humid agro-ecological gradient in West Africa

This study compared the use of different land use classes and major foraging activities of pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock in the southern Sahelian, northern and southern Sudanian zone of Burkina Faso by monitoring three herds each of cattle, goats and sheep in three village territories during a 1-year cycle. Grazing routes were tracked using a Global Positioning System; coordinates logged every 10 s were overlaid on maps from where time and activity allocated to different land use classes were derived. Results indicate that daily distance travelled by cattle and goat herds was similar across agro-ecological zones (AEZs; p ≥ 0.05), whereas sheep travelled shorter distances in the southern Sudanian zone than in the two more northern zones (p ≤ 0.05). Daily pasturing time of cattle and sheep was longer (p ≤ 0.05) in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than in the southern Sudanian zone. For goats, no significant difference was found between the two Sudanian zones, where their pasturing time was shorter than in the southern Sahelian zone. Except resting for cattle, browsing for goats and walking for sheep, time spent on different foraging activities by each species was similar across AEZs. Main areas for feeding across AEZs and species were degraded lands, fallows and harvested crop fields, as well as shrub and tree savannahs in the two Sudanian zones. To safeguard the nutrition of grazing livestock herds, interventions should focus on conserving still-existing pasture lands and regional livestock migration corridors to enable use of the remaining, often highly dispersed, pasture resources.