Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world. Owing to the limitation we currently have, it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change. Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming. This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies, which focus on seven key problems related to human activities, namely, global warming, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, climate models, future climate change, 2°C warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth’s system. We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly. This would allow us to respond to change with certainty, while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya

Several studies have indicated the importance of understanding farmers’ perceptions of risks associated with climate change, the adaptation strategies they employ and factors that affect adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity in the semiarid Matungulu Sub-County, Eastern Kenya. A participatory approach, using three climate roundtables, was conducted to enhance community participation and understanding of climate change issues. The study showed that farmers’ perceptions concerning climate change are influenced by past experiences of weather extremes that have affected production levels and farm incomes. The farmers have made strategic responses to manage risks posed by climate change. However, they face several challenges in adaptation such as inadequate technical knowledge, low financial resources and inadequate land size. Further, the study showed that climate roundtables is a successful participatory approach that can give effective insights for smallholder farmers to understand agricultural vulnerability, climate change and their adaptation strategies.     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world.Owing to the limitation we currently have,it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change.Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming.This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies,which focus on seven key problems related to human activities,namely,global warming,atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming,climate models,future climate change,2?warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth's system.We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly.This would allow us to respond to change with certainty,while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Blogging about Climate Change in Russia: Activism,Scepticism and Conspiracies

The article explores the new media’s role in climate change communication in Russia. By providing an open space for the expression of very diverse points of view, the internet creates a substitute media reality where both climate activists and climate sceptics can question the established discourse. Analysis of 374 entries published on the LiveJournal blogging platform has resulted in the identification of four discursive categories: “conspiracies of climate change,” “climate change impact,” “political games of climate change” and “online (anti-)environmentalism.” Each category demonstrates how the same topic can be framed in very different ways depending on bloggers’ worldview rather than the nature of the discussed environmental problem. The findings also show that the blogs act as “echo-chambers” for both climate deniers and climate activists reinforcing their behold beliefs. Finally, the analysis discovers some parallels with the traditional media coverage in their minimal critique of Russian state policy on climate.     

气候变化移民:极端气候事件与适应——基于对2010年西南特大干旱农村人口迁移的调查

国际上对气候因素引致人口迁移的直接关联性和重要程度一直存在争议.2010年我国西南地区遭受的特大千旱给探索极端气候事件和气候变化移民之间的复杂关系提供了研究背景.在此特大干旱影晌下,当地农村居民是否、以及怎样采用迁移的方式来应对?本文以2010年8-9月在受灾严重的云南省昆明市寻甸县所进行的田野调查为基础,揭示了特大干旱背景下当地农村人口的迁移行为及特征.调研结果表明在所调查的村组并未因此极端气候事件而引起大规模的气候变化移民活动,无论是暂时的还是永久的.为了解释灾后当地农村人口的迁移选择,本文引入“气候变化一人口迁移响应”的基本理论框架模型,考虑公共和私人两个层面的作用,对当地政府、村集体和农户自身的灾后适应行为进行深入分析和效果评价.结果表明在公共层面的各类帮扶和救助下,农户自身亦采取了多样化的适应措施,两个层面适应行为的共同作用缓解了特大干旱给农户生计带来的压力,使得农户家庭成员的迁移并不成为必须的选择.     

Metaphors in Guardian Online and Mail Online Opinion-page Content on Climate Change: War,Religion, and Politics

In climate change-related media discourses metaphors are used to (re-)conceptualize climate change science as well as climate change mitigation/adaptation efforts. Using critical metaphor analysis, we study linguistic and conceptual metaphors in opinion-page content from the British online newspapers Guardian Online and Mail Online, while paying attention to the arguments they advance. We find that Guardian Online employed war metaphors to advance pro-climate change arguments. War metaphors were used to (1) communicate the urgency to act on climate change and (2) conceptualize climate change politics. Mail Online employed religion metaphors to furnish skeptic/contrarian arguments. Religion metaphors were used to (1) downplay the urgency to act on climate change and (2) conceptualize transitions from climate change belief to skepticism. These findings raise concerns about sustained policy gridlock and refute expectations about novelty in climate change-related media discourses (as both war and religion have a history of use).     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

Establishing a measurement,reporting, and verification system for climate finance in post-Paris agreement period

The measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of climate finance was originated from discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It has been one of the key issues of global climate negotiations since 2009 and will continue to be of significant importance in addressing climate change and strengthening international trust. This paper analyses the concept, the objective, and the progress of the MRV of climate finance based on reviews of the latest literature and think-tank reports regarding climate finance regime and MRV. Following the analysis, challenges faced with the MRV of climate finance are illustrated. This paper presents that the comparability of climate finance data needs to be improved due to the variety of methodologies used for disaggregating climate finance. In addition, the integrality of the MRV system of climate finance has been impaired by the lack of feedback mechanism from the recipients to the contributors in reporting system. Furthermore, although accounting system of climate finance has been developing and improving, it remains incapacity in providing accurate data on disbursed climate finance. Responding to the above challenges, this paper proposes the key tasks in establishing a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance at international level. The tasks involve developing a measurement system with consistent data basis and accounting basis, a reporting system with more detailed guidance and standardized formats, as well as a verification mechanism balancing top-down and bottom-up review processes. In the last section, this paper concludes that the establishment of an improved MRV of climate finance requires concerted cooperation and negotiations between developed and developing country Parties under the UNFCCC. As one of the few developing country donors to the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), China is suggested to clarify its propositions as a developing country in aspects such as concept, coverage, and architecture of climate finance and MRV system, and gain bargaining power in improving operating and technical rules of international climate finance regime.     

Constructions of Climate Change on the Radio and in Nepalese Lay Focus Groups

To date analyses of media climate change constructions have mostly focused on coverage in western newspapers. Consideration of coverage in developing countries, and analyses of media constructions alongside local understandings of climate change are comparatively rare. This article provides an analysis of the construction of climate change on Nepalese radio and lay constructions of environment and climate change within the country. Data from a radio program and six focus groups are analyzed. Analysis of the radio program indicated that climate change was portrayed as a certain reality with national impacts caused by the actions of the West. While climate change dominated the radio headlines, in focus groups local environmental problems received far more attention. The paper aims to both inform directions for future climate change communication in Nepal and the wider research agenda.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, e.g. the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, whereas in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundly influenced human health, pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. First, scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change, which is characterized with “Overall best, long-term benefit.” Second, quantitative adaptation should be given more attention, e.g. proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures. Third, more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China’s future comprehensive competitiveness. The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure, intensifying the research and development (R&D) of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax, tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

Media Access and Political Efficacy in the Eco-politics of Climate Change: Canadian National News and Mediated Policy Networks

We use a discourse network analysis approach to answer two questions about national news coverage of climate change policy debate in Canada during the period 2006–2010. First, what is the media visibility of actors relevant to policy development and advocacy on climate change? Second, given the political and economic context of climate policy-making in Canada, does greater or lesser media visibility reflect effectiveness in climate policy advocacy? Multiple interpretive frameworks characterize Canadian political discourse about climate change, with fragmentation between the federal government, opposition political parties, provincial governments, and environmental organizations. Contrary to expectations, environmental organizations had high levels of media visibility while the relative invisibility of fossil fuel corporations was notable in the media coverage of Canadian climate discussions. Our findings challenge optimistic accounts of the relationship between media power and political power, and suggest that media power does not necessarily translate to political efficacy.     

Assessing National Discourse and Local Governance Framing of Climate Change for Adaptation in the United Kingdom

While many national governments struggle to maintain global climate change as a high priority issue, many local governments are taking action to fill the policy gaps. This study examines how local governments across the United Kingdom of Great Britain are reframing climate change. We compiled a dataset of newspaper publications covering climate change over a 10-year timeframe, plus survey and interview responses from local governance practitioners, to identify a shift in national discourse that has changed the priority level of climate change in UK local governance. This paper argues that many local governments are strategically reframing climate change as alternative issues in order to make progress in climate adaptation planning.     

Rural organizations and adaptation to climate change and variability in rural Kenya

Numerous studies have shown that collective action affects the type and efficiency of short- and long-term adaptation to climate change. This empirical study contributes to the body of the literature on collective action and adaptive capacity by demonstrating how organizations frame responses to climate variability and change in rural Kenya by promoting local rural institutions. By analyzing interviews, role-playing games, and household surveys, we ask how local rural organizations shape coping strategies to climate variability and how they may structure future adaptations to climate change. We also investigate what types of households participate in those organizations and how their participation may impact their vulnerability to climate change and variability. Our analysis shows that in places rendered especially vulnerable to climate change by arid climatic conditions, the disengagement of governmental services, and a limited access to income-generating activities, local rural organizations increase livelihood security. Those organizations reduce local vulnerabilities and enhance collective action. In contrast to common diversification and livelihood security strategies which rely on the access to urban or peri-urban structures, local rural institutions and organizations allow for rural and grassroots sustainable adaptation strategies. In that respect, they constitute a resilient and mostly untapped resource for visibly strengthening livelihood security and adaptive capacities in rural Kenya.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Ideologies Overruled? An Explorative Study of the Link Between Ideology and Climate Change Reporting in Dutch and French Newspapers

This article studies the relationship between the ideology of newspapers and their climate change coverage. Previous research has focused on the British press (Carvalho, 2007; Carvalho & Burgess, 2005). Our research broadens this scope to the French and Dutch media. The results show that the ideology of newspapers in the Netherlands is not related to climate change coverage, while in France the ideology of newspapers is related to some key aspects of climate change coverage, i.e., the presentation of the necessity of actions against climate change and the tone of climate change coverage. The findings suggests that ideological cultures play a role in the coverage of climate change in countries in which global warming has brought about much discussion in the political field and that are characterized by a highly competitive media landscape which is historically related to the political field.     

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

Accountability in climate change governance and Caribbean SIDS

The good governance of institutions and regimes requires accountability suited to the particular context of each institution and regime. The paper examines the nature of accountability in climate change governance using the Caribbean region as a case study. In doing so, the paper makes two original contributions. First, using insights from the environmental governance literature, it presents a conceptual framework that categorises the types (levels, relationships and mechanisms) of accountability in governance that can be used to test accountability. The accountability framework comprises two levels (internal/external accountability); four relationships (normative, relational, decision and behavioural); and four mechanisms or processes through which accountability can be exercised (certification, monitoring, participation by stakeholders in the overseeing of projects and self-reporting). Second, through an analysis of survey and interview responses from Caribbean climate change experts, it reports on the nature of accountability in climate change governance in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States. To do this, first it identifies the actors involved in Caribbean climate governance at the regional and national scales. Then, using the framework, it examines which levels, relationships and processes exist within and between climate governance regional institutions, international partners, government agencies, non-governmental organisations and the private sector for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. The paper draws two main conclusions: first, generally actors valued accountability as a good governance norm. Secondly, limited resources and the perception that using the accountability mechanisms will retard policy implementation led to low levels of accountability in practice. Finally, the study examined how accountability can be enhanced in the climate change sector by ensuring that each of the elements of the framework is operationalised for both state and non-state climate change projects.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(RD)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.