Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.     

Identifying the land use and land cover change drivers: methods and case studies of two forest reserves in Northern Benin

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is one of the problems that the world has been facing for the last few decades despite political attention....     

Legacies,socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers: the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

Mountain forest areas are key for providing a wide range of ecosystem services and are hot spots for land use change processes, in particular, increase in forest cover at the expense of mountain pastures and meadows. Mountain forest systems in eastern and western Europe have likely similar future socio-economic situations but significantly different socio-economic history. Using a scenario-based land use modelling approach (Dyna-CLUE framework) we model three scenarios (trend, liberalisation and self-sufficiency) of future land use in the Polish Carpathians and the Swiss Alps, focussing on forest cover change. We find that forest cover increase can be expected to continue in European mountainous regions under all likely scenarios, limited only by relatively strict policy interventions. Biophysical factors, rather than socio-economic ones, are key for defining the suitability for, and therefore likely locations of future forest cover, but land use legacy plays a very important role in the spatial patterns of future forest cover, particularly in eastern Europe.

     

Modeling spatio-temporal change patterns of forest cover: a case study from the Himalayan foothills (India)

The present study used temporal remote sensing data for 1990, 2001 and 2006 to assess spatio-temporal patterns of forest cover changes in Shiwalik range of the Himalaya, Dehradun forest division. Forests are innately associated to human well-being. However, with the increasing anthropogenic activities, deforestation has increased. Quantitative change analysis of the forest cover for the past two decades provides valuable insight into the forest conservation vis-à-vis anthropogenic activities in the region. Spatio-temporal datasets along with biotic and abiotic variables provide opportunities to model the forest cover change further. The present study investigates forest cover change and predicts status of forest cover in the Dehradun forest division. Land Change Modeller (LCM) was used to predict status of forest cover for 2010 and 2015 using current disturbance scenarios. Comparing actual LULC of 2006 with the predicted LULC of 2006 validated change prediction model and agreement was 61.03%. The forested areas are getting degraded due to anthropogenic activities, but deforestation/degradation does not contribute much in expanding urban area. Agricultural areas and fallow lands are the main contributors to increased urban area. The study demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to understand spatio-temporal forest cover change and generate the future scenarios.     

Land use/land cover change and statistical modelling of cultivated land change drivers in Nigeria

Regional Environmental Change - In recent decades, human activities have significantly influenced land use/land cover. Identifying pattern changes in regional land use/land cover and their drivers...     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choice.     

New climate change information modifies frames and decisions of decision makers: an exploratory study in forest planning

Information helps decision makers to address and to decide about environmental problems. In the context of climate change adaptation, often knowledge is missing on how the available information from impact models affects the decision-making process. The main aim of this study was to explore the extent of ambiguity and how new climate change information influenced decision of forest planners. We investigated changes in decisions of planners about forestry actions representing species choice and forest tourism and expiry dates of these actions leading to environmental constraints in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest planners evaluated expiry dates using four forest ecosystem services: forest production, stand yield class, sequestered carbon, and potential tourism. Data were collected during workshops with eleven forest planners from three forest districts in Scotland. Presented climate change information modified the understanding and frames of planners about forestry actions assessed with accompanying expiry dates. Changes in the frames of planners often result in both earlier and later expiry dates. Ambiguity of planners was found to be dependent on diversity in frames and difficulty in evaluating multiple ecosystem services. These findings imply that due to ambiguity forest planners might find it hard to choose climate change adaptation measures and researchers can struggle to convince planners with new research findings.     

Impact of climate change on agricultural production of Odisha (India): a Ricardian analysis

Regional Environmental Change - The present study examines the climate sensitivity of the agricultural production of Odisha, a state at the east coast of India. The two climatic variables which...     

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest trees and forest ecosystems: knowledge gaps

Atmospheric CO(2) is rising rapidly, and options for slowing the CO(2) rise are politically charged as they largely require reductions in industrial CO(2) emissions for most developed countries. As forests cover some 43% of the Earth's surface, account for some 70% of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), and are being bartered for carbon mitigation, it is critically important that we continue to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest tree growth, productivity, and forest ecosystem function. In this paper, I review knowledge gaps and research needs on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest above- and below-ground growth and productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, water relations, wood quality, phenology, community dynamics and biodiversity, antioxidants and stress tolerance, interactions with air pollutants, heterotrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. Finally, I discuss research needs regarding modeling of the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forests.Even though there has been a tremendous amount of research done with elevated CO(2) and forest trees, it remains difficult to predict future forest growth and productivity under elevated atmospheric CO(2). Likewise, it is not easy to predict how forest ecosystem processes will respond to enriched CO(2). The more we study the impacts of increasing CO(2), the more we realize that tree and forest responses are yet largely uncertain due to differences in responsiveness by species, genotype, and functional group, and the complex interactions of elevated atmospheric CO(2) with soil fertility, drought, pests, and co-occurring atmospheric pollutants such as nitrogen deposition and O(3). Furthermore, it is impossible to predict ecosystem-level responses based on short-term studies of young trees grown without interacting stresses and in small spaces without the element of competition. Long-term studies using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technologies or forest stands around natural CO(2) vents are needed to increase the knowledge base on forest ecosystem responses to elevated atmospheric CO(2). In addition, new experimental protocols need to continue to be developed that will allow for mature trees to be examined in natural ecosystems. These studies should be closely linked to modeling efforts so that the inference capacity from these expensive and long-term studies can be maximized.     

Trend analysis for integrated regional climate change impact assessments in the Lusatian river catchments (north-eastern Germany)

Regional Environmental Change - Trend analysis on observations and model-based climate change simulations are two commonly used methods for climate change detection and impact analysis. Here we...     

Migration drivers in mountain regions in the context of climate change:A case study in Shangnan County of China

Climate change has become widely accepted as a challenge that humans will face in the not-too-distant future.Mountain ecosystems and their inhabitants are among the most vulnerable to climate change.This paper seeks to explain migration drivers in specific mountain regions in the context of climate change based on Foresight’s conceptual framework.A climate change sensitive field named Shangnan County in southern Shaanxi Province is chosen as the case study area to investigate local migration drivers.A series of qualitative research methods is employed in the case study including participant observation,semi-structured interviews,and focus group discussions.The evidence of survey suggests that migration decisions are not only shaped by macro factors in aspects of environmental,economics,demographic,social,politics and psychological,but also influenced by placed-related barriers and facilitating mechanisms and personal characteristics.     

Cellular alterations in Mytilus galloprovincialis (LMK) and Tapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) as biomarkers of environmental stress: field studies in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy)

A long-term biomonitoring study was carried out in the Lagoon of Venice (North-East Italy) with the aim of evaluating variations in biological responses to environmental stress in estuarine bivalves. Two different species, the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the clam Tapes philippinarum, both widespread in the Lagoon, were studied in several sites. Two cellular biomarkers: lysosomal membrane stability in digestive cells and thickness of digestive epithelia, were evaluated in native organisms (on a seasonal basis), and in organisms which have been transferred from a reference site to several differently influenced ones. Results indicate that, to some extent, both test and organisms were able to highlight site-specific differences, but the effects of pollution were generally more easily detected by reduction in lysosomal stability than by reduction in digestive tubule epithelium. Further findings show that the inherent variability of a number of natural parameters, particularly in the reference sites, produced less effective results when biological responses in the reference organisms were compared with the polluted ones. The assessment of the two conditions was most valuable when they referred to the 25-75% range of values comprised within the seasonal medians, recorded respectively in control and polluted sites. Impaired from steady states were most effectively distinguished when the control values were medians from two reference locations. Lately, the overall results indicate that both biomarkers are more suitably deployed through the translocation approach, revealing it to be more sensitive than traditional biomonitoring, at least in the sense that it may overcome problems related to the adaptation of native organisms to sub lethal chronic pollution levels.     

Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

Linking global drivers with local and regional change: a social-ecological system approach in Chilika Lagoon,Bay of Bengal

Global scale drivers such as international markets for shrimp can trigger large changes at local and regional scales. But there is also a poorly appreciated reverse process, operating from the bottom up, with potential for triggering changes at higher scales. Thus, effects of drivers can be seen as a two-way process in which global drivers and local and regional drivers can potentially impact each other. Here, we argue that not only can global drivers impact the sustainability of local and regional social-ecological systems, but sustainability at higher scales can also be impacted by changes at the scale of local and regional social-ecological systems. Using Chilika, a large lagoon on the Bay of Bengal, Odisha State in India as a case, we show that traditional small-scale capture fisheries supporting 150 fisher villages with some 400,000 people were marginalized by aquaculture development for tiger prawn and by state-driven hydrological interventions, with impacts on the ecology of the lagoon. These changes, in turn, contribute to global poverty and food insecurity, making it difficult for India to meet international targets such as millennium development goals. The marginalized fisherfolk become part of environmental justice and other social movements. With large parts of the lagoon converted into a virtual monoculture for the production of tiger prawn, changes in Chilika (a Ramsar site) contribute to wetland habitat loss at the global scale, and biodiversity losses, possibly including IUCN red-listed species.     

Time trends (1986-2003) of radiocesium transfer to roe deer and wild boar in two Austrian forest regions

Starting shortly after the Chernobyl accident, samples of roe deer and wild boar from two comparatively highly contaminated Austrian forest stands have been regularly analysed for (137)Cs. Until 1995 average (137)Cs concentrations exceeded 1000 Bq kg(-1) in both roe deer and wild boar. Long-term and seasonal trends are similar in both investigation sites. While (137)Cs aggregated transfer factor (T(ag)) values show a significant decreasing trend in roe deer (ecological half-time 8.6 and 7.2 years, respectively), T(ag)-values in wild boar are highly variable, but rather increasing values are observed over the last years. T(ag)-values for roe deer are between 0.04 and 0.008 m(2)kg(-1) fresh weight (1987-2003); values for wild boar are between 0.008 m(2)kg(-1) (1988) and 0.046 m(2)kg(-1) (1996) fresh weight. Seasonal trends for both species are in good agreement with observations from German forests: increased mushroom ingestion leads to higher (137)Cs T(ag)-values for roe deer in the second half of the year (August-December) compared to the first half (January-July). T(ag)-values for wild boar are highest in the first half of the year.     

Household-specific variables and forest dependency in an Indian hotspot of biodiversity: challenges for sustainable livelihoods

Deforestation studies have attracted considerable attention over the past two decades. Analyses of local deforestation examine the significance of numerous explanatory variables for the extraction of forest products. This study distinguishes among the explanatory variables as household-specific and site-specific, and argues for in-depth analysis of household-specific variables. It examines the role of household size, income, and education on firewood extraction and beedi-making in the Western Ghats of India, a hotspot of biodiversity. The study documents the incidence of these livelihoods, investigates the interaction among the three variables, and uses logistic regression models to determine the exact probability for the livelihoods. Two novel features of the study include analysis of wood and non-wood extraction through a single dataset and determination of model by the data. The results show high dependency of households on forest-based livelihoods, situations when the probability of livelihoods changes substantially, and non-parallel trends for household dependency. The study suggests the role of household-specific variables as the agents of motivation and persistence for forest-based livelihoods and presents a hypothesis about the critical size of household in forest dependency. The study recommends four measures—harvest of ecosystem services, rise in income, migration and mobility, and environmental education—to promote sustainable livelihoods.     

Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France)

Regional Environmental Change - Better understanding the pathways through which future socioeconomic changes might influence land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) is a crucial step in accurately...