Analysis of observed and perceived climate change and variability in Arsi Negele District,Ethiopia

Climate change and variability has been detected in Ethiopia. Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and forest-dependent households are the most hit by climate-related hazards. They have to have perception of climate change in order to respond it through making coping and/or adaptation strategies. Local perceptions and coping strategies provide a crucial foundation for community-based climate change adaptation measures. This study was specifically designed to (1) assess households’ perception and knowledge in climate change and/or variability, and (2) establish the observed changes in climate parameters with community perceptions and climate anomalies. Purposive stratified random sampling method has been used to gather information from 355 sample households for individual interviews supplemented by group discussion and key informants interviews. The analysis of observed and satellite climate data for the study district showed that mean maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1983–2014 has increased by 0.047 and 0.028 °C/year, respectively. However, the total rainfall has declined by 10.16 mm per annum. Seasonally, the rainfall has declined by 2.198, 4.541, 1.814 and 1.608 mm per annum for Ethiopian summer, spring, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. Similarly, the mean maximum temperature of the study area had showed an increment of 0.035, 0.049, 0.044 and 0.065 °C per year for spring, winter, autumn and summer seasons, respectively. The observed climate variation has been confirmed by people’s perception. Considering what had been the existed situations before 30 years ago as normal, an increase in temperature, an increase in drought frequency, a decrease in total rainfall, erratic nature of its distribution and the tardiness of its onset had been perceived by 88, 70, 97, 80 and 94% of the respondents, respectively, at current time—2015. Deforestation as a casual factor of climate change and variability had been perceived by 99.7% of the respondents. This had been also confirmed by scientific studies as it emits carbon dioxide and is the main driver of climate change and variability. Indigenous knowledge, including climate predictions, has been used by people to implement their day-to-day agricultural activities. Therefore, science should be integrated with the perception and indigenous knowledge of people to come up with concrete solution for climate change and variability impacts on human livelihoods.     

The relationship between climate and streamflow in the Namoi Basin

The Namoi River Basin (42 000 km²) is located in the Murray-Darling Basin, west of the Great Australian Dividing Range in northeast New South Wales (NSW), and includes some of the most fertile agricultural lands in Australia. One of the environmental concerns for this basin is erosion and its effects on downstream water quality. Models that relate climate, land use, and these concerns require measurements of climate (rainfall and temperature) and streamflow. These measurements were examined as a preliminary to the modelling. The residual mass technique was used to examine the temporal variation of annual rainfalls over the approximately 100 years of available data, and significant spatial variations were found in annual rainfall trends over the catchment. Streamflow was examined at key river gauging stations. The impact of recent large-scale irrigation operations was clearly observed. The impact of changing land use and land management on runoff ratios was examined for eight subcatchments. Temperature variations were examined for the four major towns in the catchment. The duration of the temperature data is too short to make any comments about long-term trends. Significant variations were observed in an east to west direction.     

Human migration,climate variability,and land degradation: hotspots of socio-ecological pressure in Ethiopia

Regional Environmental Change - In Ethiopia, human migration is known to be influenced by environmental change—and vice versa. Thus, degradation of environmental conditions can contribute to...     

Modeling long-term attainable soil organic carbon sequestration across the highlands of Ethiopia

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The objectives of this study across the highlands of Ethiopia were: (i) to characterize the association between soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and...     

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in semi-arid Borena,Ethiopia

Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households’ adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.     

Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change

Climate change poses serious challenges for populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to adversely affect the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative. Few studies have addressed the farmers’ adaptation in Iran, and little is known about ongoing adaptation strategies in use. Adopting principal component analysis/fuzzy logic-based method, this paper considers the agricultural adaptation to climate variability. A survey of 255 farmers of Fars Province, selected through a multistage stratified random sampling method, revealed different levels of adaptation, specifically the low, moderate and high, which are principally distinguished by various degrees of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study also identified the main adaptation strategies used by farmers in response to climate-related shocks. Results indicated that although a large percentage of farmers make some adjustments to their farming practices, there are significant differences in choice of adaptation strategies by the adaptation categories. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate variability and change.     

Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions

Climate, farmers’ actions and previous cultivation history influence regional crop yields and drive autonomous adaptation in time. Proceeding climate change will induce needs for various adaptation measures in the future, especially in the northern regions. We investigated how farms take advantage of novel opportunities in Finland as dictated by the biophysical environment, farmer experience and knowledge, and the dynamics of the socioeconomic environment. Using Finland as a case, we aimed to characterize the relation of regional climate and yield development of the four major cereal crops since 1965 and of spring rape since 1978. Yields in the northernmost regions were most responsive to growing season temperature sum and precipitation. However, yield levels in southern relative to northern and eastern areas have polarized through the period, which might be an indication of a socioeconomic rather than a climate-related response. As socioeconomic factors can be more deterministic for targeting autonomous adaptation on farms, regionally planned proactive adaptation strategies are needed to prepare for long-term changes such as the climate change.     

Sensitivity of streamflow and microbial water quality to future climate and land use change in the West of Ireland

Regional Environmental Change - This study applied catchment modeling to examine the potential effects of climate change and future land management variations on streamflow and microbial transport...     

Hydrologic response to climate change and human activities in a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China

It is essential to investigate hydrologic responses to climate change and human activities across different physiographic regions so as to formulate sound strategies for water resource management. Mann–Kendall, wavelet and geospatial analyses were coupled in this study, associated with ENSO indicators, flashiness index and baseflow index, in order to explore the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and human activities in the Jiulong River Basin (JRB), a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China. The results showed that the average annual precipitation presented an increasing trend (Z = 2.263, p = 0.024) and that this tendency has become weaker from estuary to inland in the JRB over the past 50 years. The annual frequency of rainstorm events increased from 3.4 to 5.2 days in the estuary and from 5.1 to 5.6 days in the West River, whereas it decreased from 6.0 to 5.5 days in the North River from 1954 to 2010. The 10-year average streamflow during 2001–2010 in the North River and West River decreased by 9.2 and 6.7 %, respectively, compared to the average annual streamflow during 1967–2000. Annual fluctuations were the most representative signals in streamflow variability for the North River and West River over the period 1967–2010. Human activities including dam construction, land change and socioeconomic development posed increasing influences on hydrologic conditions in the JRB. Seasonal variability of streamflow and sediment discharge changed significantly between the two periods divided by the jumping point (1992), identified when dams were constructed extensively in the North River and West River. This research provided important insights into the hydrologic consequences of climate change and human activities in a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China.     

Regimes of human and climate impacts on coastal changes in Vietnam

Vietnam is a tropical to subtropical country located on the eastern Asian coast where the Red (Song Hong) and Mekong rivers discharge into the sea. The catchments of these two transboundary rivers cover parts of six countries, and their water and sediment discharges greatly influence the coastal seas of Vietnam. The impact of human activities include changes in the supply and distribution of water, sediments, and nutrients; changes in the relationships and balance among dynamically interacting factors and processes; and changes in the quality of the coastal and marine environments due to the increased use and accumulation of pollutants and the loss of habitats. These impacts have resulted in increasing unpredictability and severity of coastal problems such as floods, erosion, sedimentation, and saltwater intrusion; environmental pollution; and the degradation of ecosystems, with accompanying decrease in biodiversity and fishery productivity.     

Trends of changes in the floristic composition of forest vegetation in the northern Baikal region upon climate warming

Parameters characterizing the activity of species in altitudinal zonal elements of the flora have been analyzed in the northern Baikal region. The results provide evidence for the weakening status of xerophilic species in the cenoflora of hemiboreal light coniferous forests of the class Rhytidio-Laricetea, which form the lower part of the forest belt bordering the steppe. This fact indicates that climate on the slopes of mountain ridges is becoming more humid. The increase in humidity may be explained by both progressing degradation of permafrost and increasing precipitation. On the other hand, no significant change has been observed in the cenoflora of mountain taiga forests of the class Vaccinio-Piceetea, which form the upper part of the forest belt.     

Persistence and changes in the peripheral Beles basin of Ethiopia

We have investigated the relevance of the notion of “peripheralism” in the Beles basin. In this lowland border area of Ethiopia, important investments require an evaluation of their socio-economic and ecological impacts in the light of Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. We contrasted literature of different periods with field observations. In the middle and lower parts of the basin, the Gumuz people traditionally practised shifting cultivation. Resettlement of highlanders is particularly linked to water and land resources. A large irrigation project was initiated in the 1980s, but vegetables and fruits face post-harvest losses. Large water transfers from Lake Tana since 2010 affect the movement of people, the hydrogeomorphology, and ecology of the river. In several parts of the basin, the settlers’ economy now dominates. Many Gumuz became sedentary but maintained their agricultural system, particularly in the south of the lower basin. Land titling allowed allocation of “vacant” areas to transnational or domestic investors. As a result, the semi-natural vegetation is frequently replaced by open cropland, leading to decreased carbon storage and increased soil erosion. This and water abstraction for irrigation jeopardise hydropower production, in contradiction with the CRGE objectives. Despite the recent developments, the contrasts in economic activity make the core-periphery dichotomy to remain actual in the Beles basin. The resettlements and permanent cropping tend to make the upper basin part of the core. However, the installation of a transit road and commercial farms in the lower basin do not allow to consider that a non-peripheral integration has taken place.     

Rural organizations and adaptation to climate change and variability in rural Kenya

Numerous studies have shown that collective action affects the type and efficiency of short- and long-term adaptation to climate change. This empirical study contributes to the body of the literature on collective action and adaptive capacity by demonstrating how organizations frame responses to climate variability and change in rural Kenya by promoting local rural institutions. By analyzing interviews, role-playing games, and household surveys, we ask how local rural organizations shape coping strategies to climate variability and how they may structure future adaptations to climate change. We also investigate what types of households participate in those organizations and how their participation may impact their vulnerability to climate change and variability. Our analysis shows that in places rendered especially vulnerable to climate change by arid climatic conditions, the disengagement of governmental services, and a limited access to income-generating activities, local rural organizations increase livelihood security. Those organizations reduce local vulnerabilities and enhance collective action. In contrast to common diversification and livelihood security strategies which rely on the access to urban or peri-urban structures, local rural institutions and organizations allow for rural and grassroots sustainable adaptation strategies. In that respect, they constitute a resilient and mostly untapped resource for visibly strengthening livelihood security and adaptive capacities in rural Kenya.     

A gender approach to understanding the differentiated impact of barriers to adaptation: responses to climate change in rural Ethiopia

While adaptation has received a fair amount of attention in the climate change debate, barriers to adaptation are the focus of a more specific, recent discussion. In this discussion, such barriers are generally treated as having a uniform, negative impact on all actors. However, we argue that the precise nature and impact of such barriers on different actors has so far been largely overlooked. Our study of two drought-prone communities in rural Ethiopia sets out to examine how female- and male-headed households adapt to climate change, particularly focusing on how a variety of barriers influence the choice of adaptation measures to varying extents. To this purpose, we built a conceptual framework based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with male- and female-headed households, community leaders and local extension workers. Our findings suggest that gender-based differences in the choice of adaptation measures at the household level are driven by cultural, social, financial and institutional barriers. Barriers to adaptation—particularly when interacting—have a differentiated impact upon different actors. This outcome hints at the need for donors and policymakers to develop intervention strategies that are sensitive to this fact.     

Future soil loss in highland Ethiopia under changing climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change - Donors, governments, non-government organisations and humanitarian agencies are increasingly investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR) but there is limited...     

Livelihood adaptations to climate variability: insights from farming households in Ghana

Climate variability poses a significant threat to many sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy. Agriculture is one of the most climate sensitive sectors because of its dependence on rain-fed cultivation. This paper identifies the main adaptation strategies used by farming households in the Sudan savannah and forest-savannah transitional agro-ecological zones of Ghana, in order to reduce the adverse impacts of climate variability on their livelihood activities. It combines questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews and a range of participatory methods. Results show that households employ a range of on- and off-farm adaptation strategies including changing the timing of planting, planting early maturing varieties, diversification of crops, support from family and friends, and changing their diets to manage climate variability. Results reveal that most households use adaptation strategies linked to livelihood diversification to adapt to the increased climate variability seen in recent decades. Most households now engage in multiple non-arable farming livelihood activities in an attempt to avoid destitution because of crop failure linked to climate variability (particularly drought). The findings suggest that policy makers need to formulate more targeted climate adaptation policies and programmes that are linked to enhancing livelihood diversification, as well as establishing communication routes for farming communities to better share their knowledge on successful local climate adaptation strategies.     

Short-term seasonal variability in Be wet deposition in a semiarid ecosystem of central Argentina

The ⁷Be wet deposition has been intensively investigated in a semiarid region at San Luis Province, Argentina. From November 2006 to May 2008, the ⁷Be content in rainwater was determined in 58 individual rain events, randomly comprising more than 50% of all individual precipitations at the sampling period. ⁷Be activity concentration in rainwater ranged from 0.7 ± 0.3 Bq l⁻¹ to 3.2 ± 0.7 Bq l⁻¹, with a mean value of 1.7 Bq l⁻¹ (sd = 0.53 Bq l⁻¹). No relationship was found between ⁷Be content in rainwater and (a) rainfall amount, (b) precipitation intensity and (c) elapsed time between events. ⁷Be ground deposition was found to be well correlated with rainfall amount (R = 0.92). For the precipitation events considered, the ⁷Be depositional fluxes ranged from 1.1 to 120 Bq m⁻², with a mean value of 32.7 Bq m⁻² (sd = 29.9 Bq m⁻²). The annual depositional flux was estimated at 1140 ± 120 Bq m⁻² y⁻¹. Assuming the same monthly deposition pattern and that the ⁷Be content in soil decreases only through radioactive decay, the seasonal variation of ⁷Be areal activity density in soil was estimated. Results of this investigation may contribute to a valuable characterization of ⁷Be input in the explored semiarid ecosystem and its potential use as tracer of environmental processes.     

Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.     

Impacts of climate change and urban growth on the streamflow of the Milwaukee River (Wisconsin,USA)

Regional Environmental Change - Hydrological impact studies of climate change increasingly take land use changes into account. However, the Midwestern USA is still understudied in this context....     

Responding to climate variability: the opening of an artificial mouth on the Senegal River

The city of Saint-Louis is marked by recurrent floods, despite the decrease in rainfall. The town that grew downstream the vast plain where Senegalese-Mauritanian basin topography flattens considerably has experienced periodic flooding since its foundation. In 2003, the premature flooding of the Senegal River urged the Senegalese authorities to take the initiative to open a breach in the coastal sand strip of the “Langue de Barbarie,” in order to evacuate the water surplus from the river to the ocean and therefore resolve forever the problem of river flooding. But the disruption of estuarine dynamics has led to a rapid expansion of this gap: a few meters wide at its excavation, it reaches over 2,700 m in August 2009. Moreover, 10 months after the widening of the gap, the old river mouth was completely closed. If the natural movement of a mouth can be observed on some major deltas in the world (even on the Senegal River in the past), this is here a true man-made relocation. Based on the statistical analysis of series of hydrological data, this article demonstrates on the one hand that climatic conditions in 2003 which generated a major flood is an anomaly detected in the sequence of dry climate variability observed in the Sahel. On the other hand, it studies the rapid evolution of this new mouth of the Senegal River and discusses some of impacts on the regional social–ecological system, in this sensitive Sahelian environment.